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LPG早报-20250514
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are weak, and the short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Daily Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong dropped by 20 to 4700, in East China by 2 to 4931, and remained stable in South China at 5020; for imported gas, prices in East China dropped by 15 to 5090, and in South China by 10 to 5080; ether - post carbon four dropped by 20 to 4690, with the lowest price being Shandong civil gas at 4700. Under the weak fundamental situation, the PG futures market fluctuated downward, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 405, and the 06 - 07 spread remained basically flat at 98. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Situation - Last week, the domestic civil gas market was weak. Prices in South China rose and then fell; those in East China and Shandong fluctuated weakly; the center of ether - post carbon four shifted down significantly; the price of the cheapest deliverable (Shandong LPG) was 4800 yuan/ton. The futures market center moved down slightly; the 06 basis fluctuated; the 06 - 07 spread strengthened. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to obvious port inventory accumulation; post - holiday downstream restocking was average, and factory inventories increased slightly. The LPG commodity volume was 485,500 tons (-1.06%), and the outward supply is expected to be stable in the next three weeks; the PDH operating rate decreased to 59.59% (-2.76%) due to high import costs and poor downstream demand. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, production margins turned profitable, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly. MTBE production decreased, and the profits of gas - separation etherification and isomerization etherification were poor [1] External Market - CP and FEI rose slightly, while MB remained flat. The internal - external price spread fluctuated, FEI - MB rose slightly, and FEI - CP and CP - MB changed little. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East rose slightly. US C3 inventory was basically flat, exports increased, and the arbitrage window to the Far East closed. OPEC+ reduced the production cut, and PG supply is expected to increase. The CP official price is expected to fall, and the propane - butane spread is expected to widen [1]