Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: July 16, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur crack spread oscillated downward, the near-month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then oscillated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8-9 month spread oscillated around $4.5. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then oscillated, with the 09 around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, the near month was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, the exports of fuel oil from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, but the East-West and internal-external spreads had dropped rapidly. The external low-sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal and external spread was running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened, the domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation was high. Attention could be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 427.74 | 416.69 | 420.81 | 410.97 | 412.56 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 476.00 | 467.49 | 475.48 | 469.20 | 466.16 | -3.04 | | Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 | -1.75 | -2.05 | -2.86 | -3.55 | -3.12 | 0.43 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 675.03 | 662.16 | 681.86 | 673.49 | 674.99 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -199.03 | -194.67 | -206.38 | -204.29 | -208.83 | -4.54 | | LGO-Brent M1 | 22.33 | 22.20 | 23.03 | 23.04 | 23.87 | 0.83 | | Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 | 48.26 | 50.80 | 54.67 | 58.23 | 53.60 | -4.63 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 426.95 | 426.30 | 412.36 | 411.55 | 404.43 | -7.12 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 434.39 | 434.01 | 421.80 | 421.36 | 414.93 | -6.43 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 507.25 | 504.61 | 497.43 | 507.96 | 496.15 | -11.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 90.06 | 88.88 | 87.89 | 90.87 | 87.86 | -3.01 | | Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 | -2.03 | -1.67 | -2.86 | -4.96 | -4.13 | 0.83 | | Singapore VLSFO-Gasoil M1 | -159.19 | -153.10 | -152.96 | -164.48 | -154.01 | 10.47 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 420.79 | 418.55 | 404.43 | 402.60 | 395.38 | -7.22 | | FOB VLSFO | 516.44 | 512.29 | 504.95 | 514.89 | 501.64 | -13.25 | | 380 Basis | -5.30 | -5.40 | -6.05 | -7.05 | -6.98 | 0.07 | | High-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | -10.3 | -10.1 | -7.6 | -5.9 | -7.0 | -1.1 | | Low-Sulfur Internal-External Spread | 16.6 | 17.4 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 16.1 | -0.4 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2902 | 2910 | 2855 | 2883 | 2828 | -55 | | FU 05 | 2837 | 2848 | 2803 | 2825 | 2788 | -37 | | FU 09 | 2982 | 2972 | 2911 | 2922 | 2840 | -82 | | FU 01-05 | 65 | 62 | 52 | 58 | 40 | -18 | | FU 05-09 | -145 | -124 | -108 | -97 | -52 | 45 | | FU 09-01 | 80 | 62 | 56 | 39 | 12 | -27 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/07/09 | 2025/07/10 | 2025/07/11 | 2025/07/14 | 2025/07/15 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3568 | 3567 | 3520 | 3583 | 3529 | -54 | | LU 05 | 3472 | 3491 | 3451 | 3502 | 3451 | -51 | | LU 09 | 3692 | 3687 | 3640 | 3694 | 3639 | -55 | | LU 01-05 | 96 | 76 | 69 | 81 | 78 | -3 | | LU 05-09 | -220 | -196 | -189 | -192 | -188 | 4 | | LU 09-01 | 124 | 120 | 120 | 111 | 110 | -1 | [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is mainly in a state of oscillation. The basis has weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread has also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. Import costs have risen, while the external price has increased slightly, and the oil - gas ratio remains basically flat. The internal - external spread has weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window has opened with a slight increase in freight rates. - In terms of fundamentals, arrivals will increase this week. Chemical demand has declined, while combustion demand is average. Terminal shipments are average, and port inventories have increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories are basically flat with regional differentiation. It is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks. - Supported by chemical demand, prices in Shandong and East China may rise, while due to weak combustion demand, the price center in South China is expected to move down [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price and Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From July 10 - 15, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products showed different trends. For example, South China LPG dropped by 20, and MB propane decreased by 25. The basis weakened by 9 to 340, and the 08 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 11 to 86, and the 08 - 10 monthly spread decreased by 38 to - 332 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: FEI and CP decreased, CP production cost is lower than FEI, and the production profit of FEI and CP for PP changed little. Import costs increased, and the external price rose slightly, with the oil - gas ratio remaining flat [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows**: The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed on Tuesday. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened, and freight rates increased slightly [1]. b) Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: Arrivals increased this week, and it is expected that the commodity volume will first decrease and then increase in the next three weeks [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined, gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was average [1]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by 6.92%, and factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had a supply - demand double - weak situation with factory destocking [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ futures maintain a large premium, reflecting the contango structure of high - inventory pricing. The strong downstream demand for pure benzene has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from its high level. However, the supply pressure from South Korea's exports to China and high domestic production have kept the pure benzene processing fee in a weak consolidation. For styrene, the port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has further declined. Domestic EB maintains high - level production, while the demand is dragged down by the low operation rates of EPS and PS [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Relevant data includes pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][12][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - It involves data such as naphtha processing fee, the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [21][23][28] 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate are presented, along with styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operation rate [34][36][39] 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Data on the operation rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS are provided [45][49][50] 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Information includes the operation rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [53][57][64] Strategies - Unilateral: Observe pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and Inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and far - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ price difference when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Different industries have distinct market conditions and investment logics, with various factors such as import - profit, tariffs, supply - demand, and seasonal factors influencing their performance [1][2][3][6] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply - demand rhythm differences, and price differentials in different industries for potential investment opportunities Summary by Category Import Profit/Price Differential - On July 9, 2025, M - grade US cotton with 141% tariff had an import profit of - 19150, Brazilian soybean crush margin in March was - 4, and palm oil import profit in September was - 398 [1] - Energy products like high - sulfur had an internal - external price differential of - 10, low - sulfur had 17, SC - WTI had 4, and SC - DUBAI had 1 - For non - ferrous metals, nickel spot import profit was - 2437, zinc three - month import profit was - 1295, and copper spot import profit was - 537 - Precious metals had a gold internal - external price differential of 661 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence for non - ferrous metals internal - external arbitrage - Focus on fourth - quarter internal - external reverse arbitrage for aluminum [1] Iron Ore - Proximal shipments have declined from high levels, arrivals have recovered slowly, iron - water production has decreased from high levels, and the ore price center has dropped - There are few internal - external price differential opportunities in the short term, with the core being to capture the discount of continuous iron futures - The global balance sheet is relatively surplus compared to China's [2] Oil Products - SC: Warehouse receipts increased, internal - external prices weakened, and the August OSP remained stable - FU: Maintained a weak internal - external pattern in summer, and internal - external prices weakened rapidly due to a large increase in Zhoushan delivery goods - LU: Internal - external prices oscillated at high levels, waiting for an increase in domestic production - PG: The July CP official price was unexpectedly low, the external price dropped, and the internal - external price differential strengthened significantly. With the expected increase in PDH operation, propane is strong; civil gas prices are suppressed, and a positive - arbitrage approach is recommended [3] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling, and the strength relationship between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton has reversed with tariff policy changes. Follow - up tariff policies should be continuously monitored - Oilseeds and oils: These products have a high import dependence, and attention should be paid to the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [6] Precious Metals - RMB exchange - rate fluctuations support the internal - market price, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly - The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [7] PX - Domestic PX operation has rebounded to a high level, and there are still some overseas maintenance. With the subsequent restart of TA, PX is in a de - stocking state, and the valuation has been somewhat restored. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and EW oscillated at a low level. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $3.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU09 domestic - foreign spread weakened significantly, and the domestic delivery volume was large, maintaining a loose pattern. [5] - The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, and the 8 - 9 month spread oscillated around $6. The LU domestic - foreign spread remained strong, with LU09 oscillating around $17. [5] - This week, there was an inventory build - up on land in Singapore. The window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contract was under pressure. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, the high - sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season, and the domestic - foreign spread had dropped rapidly. The valuation of the low - sulfur on the external market was relatively high, and the LU domestic - foreign spread was running at a high level. One should pay attention to the domestic production situation. [6] 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 | +$9.14 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 | +$6.10 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | +$0.26 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$6.08 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$12.18 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.02 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -$3.04 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$1.70 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$1.01 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -$4.70 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | +$1.36 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | +$0.25 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -$14.77 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | FOB 380cst | -$1.05 | | FOB VLSFO | -$5.58 | | 380 Basis | +$0.15 | | High - sulfur Domestic - foreign Spread | -$1.8 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - foreign Spread | +$0.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | FU 01 | -9 | | FU 05 | -11 | | FU 09 | -19 | | FU 01 - 05 | +2 | | FU 05 - 09 | +8 | | FU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change | |--|--| | LU 01 | -12 | | LU 05 | -8 | | LU 09 | -2 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | | LU 05 - 09 | -6 | | LU 09 - 01 | +10 | [5]

Group 1: Report Core Data - The prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Propane CFR South China, Propane CIF Japan, MB Propane Spot, CP Forecast Contract Price, Shandong Ether Rear Carbon Four, Shandong Alkylated Oil, Paper Import Profit, and Main Contract Basis on July 1, 2025, are 4690, 4582, 4600, 580, 530, 72, 556, 5120, 7850, -86, and 482 respectively [1] - The daily changes of these data are -10, -18, 20, 10, 6, -2, -3, 110, 0, -91, and 4 respectively [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Summary - The weekly view shows that the market is mainly stabilizing. The PG futures price has weakened, with a small change in the monthly spread (the latest 08 - 09 spread is 100). The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4582 [1] - The PP price has weakened, FEI and CP prices are basically the same, and the PDH production profit has deteriorated. The civil LPG price first rose and then fell. The overall supply is relatively large, and high - price products are resisted by downstream customers. The PG futures price has fallen sharply, the basis has strengthened to 345, and the monthly spread has changed little [1] - The external market price has weakened significantly, the oil - gas ratio has first decreased and then increased. The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly, the PG - CP has weakened to -4 (-33), and the FEI - CP has weakened significantly. The import price has dropped significantly [1] - The PDH spot production profit has improved, the paper - based production profit has increased, the alkylated oil profit has increased significantly, the MTBE gas separation etherification profit is basically flat, and the isomerization etherification profit has increased [1] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The port inventory has increased due to more arrivals, the factory inventory has increased slightly with regional differentiation (East China's inventory has decreased, while South China and Shandong's have increased), and the external sales have increased [1] - The PDH operating rate has increased to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), the alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and the MTBE output is basically flat. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (+0) [1] Group 4: Market Forecast - Next week, it is expected that the PDH and alkylation operating rates will increase slightly, the combustion demand will remain weak, low prices will stimulate sales, and the subsequent prices will generally be stable [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4580. PP prices fluctuate, FEI and CP prices decline, CP discount remains unchanged, PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. The PG futures market weakens, the monthly spread changes little, and the 08 - 09 spread is 95. The US - Far East arbitrage window closes [1]. - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. Geopolitical tensions at the beginning of the week lead to a bullish market, but overall supply is abundant, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle - East situation causes a sharp drop in oil prices, pressuring the market later in the week. The PG futures market falls sharply, the basis strengthens to 345, and the monthly spread changes little. External market prices weaken significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The internal - external price difference drops significantly, PG - CP weakens to - 4 (-33), FEI - CP weakens significantly, and the US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Import prices drop significantly, AFEI propane discount drops slightly, and CP propane - butane discount drops significantly. PDH spot production profit improves, paper - based production profit rises, FEI is lower than CP; alkylation oil profit rises significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit is basically flat, isomerization etherification profit increases; FEI - MOPJ moves up [1]. - Fundamentally, increased arrivals lead to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation, East China destocks, and South China and Shandong accumulate inventory; external sales increase; PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), and MTBE production remains basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 lots (+0). Next week, PDH and alkylation operating rates are expected to rise slightly, combustion demand remains weak, low prices stimulate sales, and subsequent prices will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Data - From June 24 - 30, 2025, prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and other related products change. For example, South China LPG prices range from 4710 - 4755, Shandong LPG prices range from 4599 - 4667 [1]. Market Conditions - Futures market: The PG futures market weakens, and the monthly spread changes little [1]. - External market: FEI and CP prices decline, and the US - Far East and US - Asia arbitrage windows close [1]. - Spot market: Civil gas prices show a trend of rising first and then falling [1]. Profit and Cost - PDH production profit improves, and FEI production cost is higher than CP. PDH spot production profit improves, and paper - based production profit rises [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventory accumulates due to increased arrivals, factory inventory accumulates slightly with regional differentiation. PDH operating rate rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and alkylation operating rate is 46.02% (-1.84 pct) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Expected supply to increase, chemical demand to rise, and combustion demand to be weak, with an overall weak fundamental situation [1] Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong increased by 20 to 4510, in East China decreased by 12 to 4505, and in South China decreased by 50 to 4750; etherified C4 decreased by 60 to 4680; the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4510 [1] - CP import cost slightly increased, PP remained flat, and PP production profit slightly increased; PG futures prices were strong, with the 06 contract basis at -28 (latest 85), the 06 - 07 monthly spread at -8 (latest 87), and the 07 - 09 monthly spread at 3 (latest 156); the US - Far East arbitrage window opened [1] - Civil gas prices significantly declined, etherified C4 rebounded, the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; PG futures prices declined due to weak spot prices; the 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] - In the external market, FEI and MB declined, CP increased, the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference significantly declined, and FEI - MOPJ slightly declined; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Supply and Demand - Arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat; the commercial volume slightly increased and was expected to continue increasing; at the same time, expected arrivals were expected to increase [1] - PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production gross profit declined, and PDH operation was expected to continue to rebound next week; alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability significantly declined to -40.5 (-308), and operation was expected to slightly increase next week [1] - MTBE prices generally declined by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, profits from gas fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined; expected MTBE supply to fluctuate narrowly, gasoline demand difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]