Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market dropped from a high level. Due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and unexpected shutdown of some plants, the production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although most private butadiene rubber plants in North China have reduced their production to varying degrees, the weak downstream demand has led to increased inventory in production enterprises and sample trading enterprises. It is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase this week, but the production schedule of some enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and a few enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may affect the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The inventory of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase, but the production schedule adjustment of some enterprises and maintenance plans of a few enterprises may affect the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.96% [11]. - As of May 23, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [18]. - As of May 23, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,790 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of May 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of May 22, the basis of butadiene rubber was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - **Upstream** - As of May 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 563.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - As of May 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.73%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons from last week [31]. - **Industry** - In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 75.57%, a decrease of 3.63% from last week [34]. - As of May 22, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 615 yuan/ton, an increase of 618 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - As of May 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,800 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week. As of May 23, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week; the trading enterprise inventory was 5,800 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [45]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, China's cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, supply will continue to increase, and the pressure on the spot market to sell goods remains high. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will continue to increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly month - on - month. Some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance arrangements, which had a great impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 26,505, with a month - on - month increase of 83. [2] - The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 7,120 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was in the range of 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 - 350 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was 420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 525 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 66.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 63.67 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5 US dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 36,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 48.5%, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 74.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.86 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 173 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 5,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.52 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days. [2] Industry News - As of May 8, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. During the May Day holiday, the inventory of some production enterprises increased, and some traders replenished their stocks moderately, but the pressure to sell goods after the holiday remained. [2] - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most enterprises resumed production around May 6. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber remained stable. Recently, the supply of domestic raw materials is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has generally declined. After the restart of some private plants in North and East China next week, production will increase, and the inventory level of enterprises may continue to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased, and the sales pressure of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased. The br2506 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 10,500 - 11,500 [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and as of April 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Outlook**: Recently, the supply of domestic raw materials is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of trading enterprises has generally declined. After the restart of some private plants in North and East China next week, production will increase, and the inventory level of enterprises may continue to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased, and the sales pressure of semi - steel tire enterprises has increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2506 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 10,500 - 11,500 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.56% [11] - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the text - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of April 25, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was - 65 [19] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of April 25, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 7,520 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week [22] 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of April 24, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - **Basis**: As of April 24, the basis of butadiene rubber was 465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of April 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 582 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 790 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of April 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.75%, a decrease of 3.33% from last week. As of April 25, the butadiene port inventory was 34,800 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [34] 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In March 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 128,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of April 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 67.17%, an increase of 4.41% from last week [38] - **Production Profit**: As of April 24, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan/ton from last week [41] - **Inventory**: As of April 23, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. As of April 25, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 28,640 tons, an increase of 930 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,610 tons, a decrease of 760 tons from last week [44] 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.38 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.84 percentage points [47] - **Tire Exports**: In March 2025, China's tire exports were 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March, China's cumulative tire exports were 1,948,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [50] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report