Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 yuan/ton. Last week, influenced by the weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly. However, downstream shipping pressure remains high, and production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as enterprise maintenance ends, it will enter the production recovery phase, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 27,783 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 lots. The spread between August and September for synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 1,600 tons, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is $70.15 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.57; the price of WTI crude oil is $68.33 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of $0.4. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $820 per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $586.5 per ton, with a week - on - week increase of $9.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,060 per ton, with no week - on - week change. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, with no week - on - week change; the utilization rate of butadiene production capacity is 70.91%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.16 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 22,330 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 44.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber production capacity is 66.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 164 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 414 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons; the weekly enterprise inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 430 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.64 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.45 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.48 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 days [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period (June 25, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%. As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold approximately 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of approximately 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were approximately 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of approximately 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the recent geopolitical factors in the Middle East causing an increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the rise in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually increasing. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are generally increasing. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end - users' resistance to high prices is obvious. It is expected that the production and sales pressure will be difficult to ease. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. - With the cease - fire between Israel and Palestine and the decline in crude oil prices, the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,700 - 11,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,230 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 345 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position was 10,317, a decrease of 557. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,750 yuan/ton, and that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,700 yuan/ton, and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,750 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 245 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 71.48 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 5.53 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan was 470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 840 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China price of butadiene was 1,100 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. WTI crude oil was 68.51 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.06%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 28,400 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.95%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.79 million tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,163 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.34 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 700 tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 610 tons to 6,820 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. - In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, some private cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, supply will continue to increase, and the pressure on the spot market to sell goods remains high. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will continue to increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly month - on - month. Some enterprises had 2 - 5 days of maintenance arrangements, which had a great impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. The short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 26,505, with a month - on - month increase of 83. [2] - The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 7,120 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical was in the range of 12,150 - 12,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 - 350 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was 420 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 525 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 66.63 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 63.67 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.72 US dollars/barrel. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6.5 US dollars/ton. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 600 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 36,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 48.5%, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 74.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.86 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 173 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 5,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 42.52 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days. [2] Industry News - As of May 8, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.01%. During the May Day holiday, the inventory of some production enterprises increased, and some traders replenished their stocks moderately, but the pressure to sell goods after the holiday remained. [2] - As of May 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 46.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.98 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 32.14 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.89 percentage points. Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, and most enterprises resumed production around May 6. [2]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of May 6, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9175 (-25) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1000 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11600 (+0) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2850 (-250) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 285 (-235) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In April, China's butadiene production was 443,100 tons, down 3.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, down 5.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.39 million units, down 7.2% month-on-month, and down 0.77% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.08 million units, down 4.5% month-on-month, and down 3.4% year-on-year [2] - As of May 2, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed divergence: butadiene industry operating rate was 68.9%, down 2% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate was 71.9%, up 5.8% month-on-month; semi-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 66.7%, down 7.8% month-on-month; full-steel tire manufacturers' operating rate was 59.5%, down 9.5% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of May 2, butadiene port inventory was 36,500 tons, up 1,700 tons month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 26,850 tons, down 1,790 tons, a decrease of 6.3% month-on-month; traders' inventory was 5,100 tons, up 1,490 tons, an increase of 41.3% month-on-month [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on May 6, Maoming Petrochemical's 5,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is scheduled for maintenance starting May 7, lasting approximately 20 days; downstream SBS units will also undergo maintenance [4] Market Analysis - On May 6, crude oil rebounded from low levels, boosting BR slightly, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2506 closing at 11,315 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Tariff issues have led to a decline in demand, and the supply of styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to increase significantly in May, resulting in a loose supply-demand balance. The butadiene supply-demand situation remains challenging due to simultaneous maintenance and production ramp-up in domestic facilities, with no significant contraction in domestic supply. Despite many Asian ethylene facilities undergoing maintenance in May, tariff issues may lead to a severe decline in orders for the automotive and tire manufacturing industries in Japan and South Korea, impacting the demand for butadiene in these regions and potentially leading to oversupply, which could increase imports to China or decrease Asian butadiene prices. Therefore, the cost support for BR is limited. In the natural rubber sector, smooth tapping in domestic and foreign production areas is pushing the supply side into seasonal weakness, putting pressure on natural rubber prices. On a macro level, the unresolved "tariff war" continues to create uncertainty in the market. Overall, cost support is limited, and with increased supply and weak demand for styrene-butadiene rubber, BR is expected to face downward pressure [5]