1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic large pigs for slaughter is gradually increasing. With the recent rise in swine fever in southern China, the short - term increase in slaughter is suppressing pig prices. It is expected that the supply of both pigs and pork will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved slightly. The demand for cured meat in the north is gradually being released, which supports the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. Overall, the market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand. Pig prices may decline in the short - term and fluctuate within a range in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The outlook is neutral [8]. - The spot national average price is 11,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is - 5 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The outlook is neutral [8]. - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. This is a bearish signal [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. This is a bullish signal [8]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing. This is a bearish signal [8]. - Recently, both the supply and demand of pigs have started to increase. It is expected that pig prices will enter a weak and volatile pattern this week. The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of around 11,100 - 11,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the approaching peak demand season and the spread of swine fever, the slaughter of pigs has increased, leading to more supply. The spot price is expected to remain volatile in the short and medium - term [10]. - With the arrival of the cured - meat demand at the end of the year, the pig spot market is gradually entering a stage of strong supply and demand. The short - term downward space for prices may be limited, and prices may return to a volatile trend [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - breeding profits has recently shifted to small fluctuations. Short - term profits still remain in the red, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short - term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The pig spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, returning to a volatile pattern. The futures market is still weak in the short - term and may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the peak season at the end of the year, and the downward space for domestic pig spot prices may be limited [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), pig futures warehouse receipts, and external ternary pig spot prices in different regions from December 15 - 22 [13]. - It also presents various charts related to the pig market, including the basis and spread trends of pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of pigs in the spot market, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory data from different sources, pork imports, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the situation of pig storage and release [14 - 72]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position - related data analysis is provided other than the information about the net short position and the decrease in short positions of the main contract in the core viewpoints [8].

Core Viewpoint - The winter solstice is approaching, but there is no indication of a price increase for pork, with a slight decline observed instead. This suggests that the expected rise in pork prices during the winter solstice may not materialize [2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - There is an oversupply of pigs, particularly larger ones, which is affecting market prices. The price difference between standard and fat pigs has not widened but has actually narrowed [2] - Farmers lack confidence and are reluctant to hold onto pigs, leading to a significant number of medium and large pigs being sold [4] - The slaughter volume of pigs from January to October reached 32.289 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, indicating continued growth in supply [9] Group 2: Consumption Trends - Overall pork consumption is on a downward trend, and while there may be an increase in stockpiling before the Spring Festival, this is unlikely to significantly impact prices due to the overwhelming supply [5] - The price of pork during the winter solstice has only increased by 5.3% and 1.3% for the years 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting weak consumer demand and tight budgets [6] - The timing of the Spring Festival, which falls later this year, may lead to increased stockpiling of pork, but the overall consumption pressure remains high due to the large supply [7]

价格监测情况显示，全国生猪均价为11.63元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.02元／公斤。重庆市肉品供给指数显 示，今日肉品供给比昨日上涨0.61%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为62.07万公斤，较昨日上涨3.09%。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.42元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.64元／公斤。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月19日电 据国家级生猪大数据中心官方微信发布，截至19日，31个省（自治区、直辖 市）外三元生猪价格10涨2跌19平，呈稳中上涨趋势。 综合分析，今日价格南北涨跌互现，大猪供应充沛，标肥价差走阔，下游承接能力有限，对高价猪源接 受无能，短期涨势受供应端制约，预计周末猪价弱势运行。 编辑：吴郑思 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the combination of capacity release and the push from breeding groups to meet annual sales targets is leading to an increase in planned pig slaughter volumes for December, with a month-on-month increase of 3.77% [1][2][4] Group 2 - In December, the planned slaughter volume from the breeding sector is expected to increase, with the largest increase observed in Fujian Province at 14.50%, while Zhejiang Province sees the largest decrease at 36.09% [2] - The increase in planned slaughter volumes is attributed to a rise in the number of breeding sows and a slight increase in the number of fattening pigs, driven by the release of previously accumulated production capacity [4] Group 3 - There is an expectation of increased demand for pigs in December due to seasonal trends, but the actual demand may be limited due to demographic changes and a decrease in traditional cured meat production [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to face downward pressure on pig prices due to a supply surplus, with the average price of pigs dropping to 11.18 yuan per kilogram as of December 4, indicating a reversal from earlier price increases [7]

Core Insights - The overall price of external three yuan pigs in China increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 11.38 yuan/kg on December 10, 2025, while the average price of piglets decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.07 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to recovering consumption in both northern and southern regions, alongside expectations of increased supply pressure as large-scale farms aim to meet annual slaughter targets [2][3] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan pigs across various regions shows slight increases or stability, with notable price changes in specific areas such as Liaoning (+0.10 yuan/kg) and Sichuan (+0.20 yuan/kg) [1] - The average price of white strip meat rose by 0.01 yuan/kg to 15.06 yuan/kg, indicating a slight upward trend in meat prices [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with expectations of both price increases and decreases, influenced by weather changes and consumer demand [2][3] - The pig feed ratio is reported at 3.43:1, which has increased by 0.02 from the previous day, reflecting changes in feed costs [1]

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on December 9, 2025, is 11.32 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 19.12 yuan/kg, which has decreased by 0.07 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 15.05 yuan/kg, down by 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The market for pig prices continues to show a strong fluctuation trend, with northern regions stabilizing while southern regions see noticeable price increases [2] - The demand for pork is expected to rise due to colder weather and upcoming festivals, which may support the consumption side [2] - There is an observed increase in both supply and demand, which may limit the upward potential of pig prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic pig prices in China are experiencing mixed trends, with increases in the Northeast, Southwest, and South regions, while slight declines are observed in the East and North regions [1] Price Trends - On December 8, the expected price increase in the southern region is between 0.1-0.2 yuan per kilogram, while the central region is seeing a general decline of 0.05-0.1 yuan per kilogram [1] - The demand in the southern region is supported by the seasonal increase in demand for cured meats as temperatures drop [1] Regional Analysis - The South region is showing a weak to strong price trend due to increased demand, while the central region is facing limited consumption growth and insufficient rebound in prices due to ongoing conventional pig diseases [1]

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on December 5, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 19.26 yuan/kg, which increased by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 15.11 yuan/kg, down by 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - Prices in North China, Northwest, and East China are stabilizing and showing slight increases, while South China and Southwest regions are experiencing narrow declines [2] - The supply side is characterized by a reluctance to sell and a hopeful sentiment for price increases, supporting the stabilization of prices in the northern regions [2] - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with expectations for tomorrow's prices to remain in a narrow range of fluctuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses, with external purchases of piglets resulting in a loss of 308.65 yuan per pig, and self-bred pigs incurring a loss of 191.72 yuan per pig, indicating a challenging financial environment for farmers [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The current market conditions have led to substantial losses for pig farmers, with each pig sold resulting in real financial losses [1] - Weak financial capabilities are forcing small and medium-sized farmers to exit the market [1] - The cyclical nature of the industry is contributing to short-term pressures and ongoing operational challenges for farmers [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is anticipation in the market that demand for cured meats around the winter solstice may drive up pig prices [1] - However, after the Spring Festival, demand is expected to reach its lowest point for the year, which could further impact prices negatively [1]

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China on December 3, 2025, is 11.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 19.24 yuan/kg, which has increased by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 15.18 yuan/kg, down by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The overall market for pig prices is experiencing a weak adjustment, with a nationwide average decline of 0.11 yuan/kg, and some regions like Guizhou and Xinjiang have fallen below 11 yuan/kg [2] - Despite a slight recovery in terminal demand due to falling temperatures, the overall market remains under pressure due to a relaxed supply of live pigs [2] - The sentiment in the market is mixed, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation in pig prices in the short term, influenced by the rhythm of large-scale farm sales and the development of winter disease [3]