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生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250723
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].
猪价终于涨了,但大涨可能要泡汤了!咋了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices indicate a complex market situation, with a brief recovery followed by a significant decline, suggesting challenges ahead for price stability and growth potential. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, pig prices unexpectedly rose, reaching a peak of 15.5 yuan/kg, but subsequently fell for half a month, dropping below 14 yuan/kg, indicating a decline of over 1 yuan/kg overall [2][4]. - Despite a recent slight rebound in pig prices, the overall outlook for significant price increases remains bleak, as the market dynamics are shifting [4][7]. Group 2: Market Support Factors - A key support factor for the recent price increase is the reduction in the inventory of medium and large pigs, with a 0.8% decrease in June, leading to less market pressure [4][6]. - Rising feed costs, driven by increasing corn prices, have led to higher breeding costs, causing farmers to reduce the number of pigs they sell when prices drop to around 14 yuan/kg [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig market is facing structural changes due to large enterprises continuously expanding production and the impact of secondary fattening practices disrupting the market rhythm [8]. - Official directives to halt production expansion and reduce sales of secondary fattened pigs have altered market dynamics, diminishing the potential for price increases [8][9]. - Data indicates that the pressure for pig sales will remain high in the second half of the year, with an expected peak in piglet output and feed production [11].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250717
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is suppressed in the short - term due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly mid - group farm's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, and the inventory shows a certain decline in live pigs and a slight increase in breeding sows. The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to a range - bound pattern between 13,800 and 14,200 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt No specific content provided for daily prompt in the report. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of live pigs both decrease, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures price following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork turns weak in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the live pig spot price fluctuates weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price**: The national average spot price was 14,470 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was 460 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions [8].
猪价冲高失败!七八月份的高点没了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 02:23
Group 1 - The pig market experiences distinct seasonal fluctuations, but these are not solely driven by demand. For instance, while the fourth quarter is typically a peak consumption period for pork, historical trends indicate that price highs often occur in July and August [2][5] - In July, pig prices initially surged, reaching 15.4 yuan per kilogram, but subsequently declined after mid-month, continuing a downward trend for over ten days [2] - The decline in pig prices is attributed to changing market sentiments, with this year's outlook being notably weaker compared to last year, which saw a strong rebound in prices [6][7] Group 2 - The increase in pig production last year has led to significant pressure on pig stocks this year, with a reported 36.619 million pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a 1.3% rise in pork production [10] - Demand for pork remains stagnant, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which has further driven down prices [13] - Although there is a possibility of price increases, the likelihood of significant price surges is low due to reduced enthusiasm for breeding and fattening pigs, coupled with unpredictable weather and rising feed costs, which have led to a more relaxed supply situation [15]
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250710
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork may also decline due to the end of the holiday and a pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to experience a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, with pig prices returning to a volatile pattern. The target price range for LH2509 is between 14,000 and 14,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig market enters a slack season, with reduced large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the futures market will follow a similar pattern [10]. - Pork demand weakens after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, with limited downward space due to reduced slaughter [10]. - The profit of pig farming remains low, but there is still short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is fair in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters a slack season after the May Day holiday [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Indicators**: - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 4066 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 40850 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 3996 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [26]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork weakens, and the consumption of fresh pork is suppressed. The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence [8]. - The annual consumption of pork shows a month - on - month increase, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [8].
猪企半年报前瞻:价跌、利增,成本分化
Core Viewpoint - The sales data for June from leading pig farming companies indicates that while the average sales price has slightly decreased compared to the same period last year, profits have increased due to a significant reduction in costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sales and Pricing - In the first half of the year, the average sales price for pigs from Muyuan Foods was 14.46 yuan/kg, down 0.76 yuan/kg from the previous year, with a price range of 14.08 to 14.76 yuan/kg [1][3]. - The sales price decline of approximately 5% contrasts with a notable decrease in costs, which fell from over 14 yuan/kg to 12.2 yuan/kg by May [1][5]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure varies significantly among pig farming companies, with some, like Huazhong Foods, reporting costs as high as 13.7 yuan/kg, which is 1.6 yuan/kg higher than Muyuan Foods [1][6]. - Muyuan Foods' profitability has improved, with a unit profit of approximately 2.3 yuan/kg and a gross margin of around 15.8%, compared to Huazhong Foods' 0.8 yuan/kg profit and 5.5% margin [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a narrowing fluctuation in pig prices, with expectations of marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics in the second half of the year due to a decrease in the breeding sow inventory [8][10]. - There are differing opinions on the future price trajectory, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, while others foresee continued supply growth keeping prices stable [9][10].
6月生猪价格下滑企业业绩承压 业内料下半年将好于预期
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that meat product prices are under pressure, leading to declining sales for breeding companies in June [1][2] - Wens Foodstuff reported sales of 104 million meat chickens in June, generating revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, with a chicken sales average price of 10.29 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month declines of 3.40%, 8.30%, and 4.28% respectively [1] - In June, Wens Foodstuff sold 3.0073 million pigs, with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan and an average price of 14.39 yuan/kg, reflecting month-on-month changes of -4.69%, -7.57%, and -1.98% [1] Group 2 - New Hope reported sales of 1.33 million pigs in June, with a revenue of 1.871 billion yuan and an average price of 14.18 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month declines of 0.29%, 5.12%, and 2.81% respectively [1] - Juxing Agriculture announced sales of 419,900 pigs in June, with a revenue of 742 million yuan, and a 3.4% decrease in average price, while sales volume increased by 28% [2] - Xiangjia reported sales of 4.298 million live poultry in June, generating revenue of 68.1782 million yuan, with a significant decline in sales price due to market sluggishness [2] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a seasonal consumption lull, with pig prices maintaining a fluctuating trend, and expectations for better performance in the second half of the year [2][3] - The report suggests that the supply of pigs will see limited growth by 2025, and high-quality pig enterprises may still achieve considerable profits [3] - The industry is currently operating at a marginal profit, with large pig enterprises focusing on increasing capacity utilization to reduce breeding costs [3]
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250704
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 05:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the pig market this week may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of live pigs may experience a double - reduction in pigs and meat this week after the May Day holiday. The demand is also affected by the post - holiday decline in consumer enthusiasm. The market is expected to be in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market at the end of the month [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures follow a similar pattern [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Data**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price Data**: The national average spot price is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 1,000 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].
中国银河证券:建议重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企
news flash· 2025-07-01 00:32
Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]
华联期货生猪年年报:产能去化放缓,猪价僵持
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - **Strategy and Outlook**: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook**: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Futures Spreads**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Standard and Fat Pig Prices**: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - **Piglet and Binary Sow Prices**: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - **Culled Sow Prices**: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - **Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - **Substitute Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]