今年，养殖端产能释放。从3月直到5月中旬，猪价基本处于持续横盘状态，难涨难跌。 猪价年内低点 是否已过？机构分析，5—10月猪价或震荡下滑，年内低点或出现在四季度。 据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公斤，与上周五（5月9 日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均价持平。 本周国内生 猪价格以下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。 另据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86 元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比， 下降0.4%。 在供应方面，自2024年5月起，国内能繁母猪存栏量开始增加，到2025年3月，适重生猪供应能力有所回 升。2025年4月至9月，生猪出栏水平预计会显著提升。因此，2025年5月国内适重猪源供应将增加，标 猪出栏计划也会增多。春节后养殖端控重挺价，中小标猪出栏意愿不高，导致当前生猪出栏均重达到 124.12公斤。随着南北地区气温的上升，标肥价差倒挂明显， 市场对中大猪的需求不足 ...

智通财经5月17日电，据农业农村部监测，5月16日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.94元/公 斤，与上周五（5月9日）的20.62元/公斤相比，上涨1.6%。本周的平均价格为20.88元/公斤，与上周均 价持平。本周国内生猪价格下跌为主，周均价环比下滑。据中国养猪网的数据，5月16日，生猪（外三 元）价格为14.74元/公斤，与上周五（5月9日）的14.86元/公斤相比，下降0.8%。从一周均价来看，本 周生猪均价为14.81元/公斤，与上周14.87元/公斤相比，下降0.4%。开源证券认为，4月猪价淡季不淡， 5月供给缺口传导将至叠加需求边际向好，猪价中枢或进一步抬升。展望后市，供给端前期能繁淘汰缺 口及冬春季腹泻病毒变异流行仔猪损失缺口传导将至，5月生猪出栏增量有限，需求端猪肉消费边际向 好。内外因素共同驱动下，5月猪价中枢或延续抬升态势，2025年猪价中枢有支撑。 (澎湃) 本周猪价继续下探 机构预计今年猪价中枢有支撑 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.95% [6][18] - The supply gap in May is expected to lead to a further increase in the price center of live pigs, driven by limited increases in supply and improving demand [6][18] - The average weight of pigs sold is expected to gradually decline, but the narrowing price difference between different grades of pigs will have limited pressure on prices [7][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - April saw a non-seasonal increase in pig prices, with expectations for further price increases in May due to supply constraints and improving demand [6][18] - The average price of live pigs in April was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% [6][18] - The slaughter volume in April was 4.213 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.54% but a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [6][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs is expected to be limited in May due to previous culling and disease impacts, while demand for pork is showing marginal improvement [6][18] - The planned output for May is expected to increase by 1.98% compared to actual output in April [6][18] Profitability and Market Performance - The average profit for self-bred pigs in April was 69.44 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 63.63% [8][26] - The number of breeding sows in April increased by 0.96% month-on-month [8][26] - The price of 15kg piglets reached 630 yuan/head, indicating a high price level during the replenishment season [8][26] Company Performance - In April, 12 listed pig farming companies collectively sold 16.2368 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 37.22% [9][28] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume [9][28] - The average selling prices varied among companies, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines [9][35]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-05-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期呈震荡偏弱格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏 变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14710元/吨，2509合约基差840元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 ...

2024年下半年，在供给持续增加的背景下，生猪现货价格延续弱势。2025年1月，生猪现货价格继续下 行。2月中旬，生猪价格跌至低位区间，随后窄幅震荡，低位运行。卓创样本点统计数据显示，截至5月 9日，主流市场生猪均价为14.78元／千克，较年初下跌1.54元／千克；期货基准交割地河南地区均价为 15.02元／千克，较年初下跌1.4元／千克。短期来看，生猪供给充裕，终端需求弱势，生猪现货价格延 续低位震荡。 节日提振作用有限 劳动节假期期间，餐饮消费有所增加，对终端需求起到一定提振作用，但增幅较为有限，生猪现货价格 基本稳定。 节后，随着假期效应消退，终端需求回归常态，延续弱势格局。根据卓创样本点统计数据，截至5月9 日，屠宰开工率为34.53%，较节前下降1.05个百分点。根据需求的季节性规律，进入夏季，各地气温升 高，终端需求仍将处于淡季，届时需求大概率延续弱势格局。 需求缺乏亮点 屠宰开工率虽较劳动节前有所回落，但结合历史数据来看，目前卓创样本点跟踪的134家生猪屠宰企业 的日屠宰量处于2019年以来同期最高水平。另外，冻品库容率自2月以来不断攀升。截至5月8日，卓创 统计的冻品库容率为18.93%，较2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs decreased after the Spring Festival, with reduced enthusiasm for slaughter, and the pig price fluctuated slightly. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook, and the demand for fresh pork is weak after the Spring Festival. However, the recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. - Overall, the market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern with a slight fluctuation in the weekly price center. - The LH2509 contract of live pigs should be traded within the range of 14,200 to 14,600 intraday [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt The document does not provide relevant content. 2. Recent News - China's recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. The domestic pig consumption market is in a seasonal off - season, with reduced large - pig slaughter, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price remains volatile, and the futures are strongly volatile due to basis support. - After the release of pork demand during the Spring Festival, it weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs was relatively strong due to reduced slaughter, but the downstream consumption expectation was poor, and the overall spot price was still weak. - The profit of domestic pig farming has declined from its high level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has decreased, and the light supply supports the expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Decreased supply of live pigs after the Spring Festival in China; Tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Monthly increase in the domestic live pig inventory; The entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season, which suppresses the pork price [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the supply of live pigs decreased, and the demand was also weak. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 14,860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 535 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 427.43 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. 5. Position Data The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [8].