新华财经北京11月18日电据国家级生猪大数据中心18日发布，监测显示，今日（2025年11月18日），31 个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格1涨10跌20平，呈稳中下跌趋势。 分析来看，今日养殖端出栏积极性一般，气温下降后需求没有明显好转，屠企多压价按需采购，部分集 团场降价出栏，采购基本无难度，但仍有部分养殖端挺价惜售，预计明日价格上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 具体价格监测情况显示，18日全国生猪均价为11.56元／公斤，较前一日下跌0.03元／公斤。重庆市肉品 供给指数显示，今日肉品供给比昨日上涨3.43%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为59.12万公斤，较昨日下跌 0.29%。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.47元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.58元／公斤。 ...

Core Insights - The overall trend in pig prices across 31 provinces is showing a steady decline, with 10 regions experiencing price increases, 20 regions seeing decreases, and 1 region remaining stable [1] - The national average price for pigs on November 18 is reported at 11.56 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - The supply index for meat in Chongqing has increased by 3.43% compared to the previous day, indicating a rise in meat supply [1] - In Beijing, the wholesale trading volume of pork is recorded at 591,200 kilograms, which is a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [1] - The average price difference for external three yuan pigs across 21 major regions is approximately 0.47 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and is below the average transportation cost of 0.58 yuan per kilogram [1] Market Analysis - The enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding sector is generally moderate, with no significant improvement in demand following the drop in temperature [3] - Slaughterhouses are applying pressure on prices and purchasing based on demand, leading to some group farms reducing prices for sales [3] - Despite the overall trend, some breeders are holding firm on prices and reluctant to sell, with expectations of a price increase tomorrow [3]

Core Insights - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 11.59 yuan/kg on November 18, 2025, while the average price of piglets rose by 0.03 yuan/kg to 19.11 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some regions experiencing slight price adjustments, but overall, the market remains in a "strong supply, weak demand" situation [2] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan live pigs across various regions shows slight increases, with notable prices including: - Heilongjiang: 11.71 yuan/kg - Guangdong: 12.21 yuan/kg - Shanghai: 11.95 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of piglets also varies by region, with the highest price in Guangdong at 20.28 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The recent drop in temperatures has led to increased optimism among farmers, with some engaging in limited curing activities in southern regions [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, overall consumption remains weak, impacting the sustainability of price increases [2] - The risk of disease in pig herds is rising with the temperature drop, which may lead to earlier market exits by farmers for disease control [2]

Market Overview - As of the week ending November 14, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising of pigs is a loss of 114.81 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 89.21 yuan per head the previous week. The profit from purchasing piglets is a loss of 205.64 yuan per head, up from a loss of 175.54 yuan per head the previous week [1] - The planned pig output for November in key provinces is 13.90 million heads, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the actual output in October. Jiangsu shows the most significant increase, exceeding 7%, while Fujian shows the largest decrease, exceeding 11% [1] - The national pig price as of November 12 is 12.44 yuan per kilogram, down 0.80% from November 5. The corn price is 2.26 yuan per kilogram, down 0.89%, and the pig-to-grain ratio is 5.50, down 1.79% [1] Feed Industry Insights - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the national industrial feed output in October 2025 is 29.07 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month but an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. The output prices of major feed products have decreased year-on-year, with compound feed and concentrated feed prices mainly declining month-on-month [2] - The corn usage ratio in compound feed is 38.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the soybean meal usage ratio is 13.9%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] Pig Price Trends - The current pig prices are weak due to the lack of demand as the cured meat season has not yet started. Many enterprises are still at a break-even point, and the market has not formed expectations for rapid capacity reduction and price stabilization [5] - The cost of soybean meal has seen a slight pullback but remains generally strong, raising questions about whether this cost support will lead to a quicker formation of a price bottom [5]

其一，二次育肥补栏体量下降。其实有好多次猪价上涨出乎养殖户预期，多半是二育的"功劳"。眼下二育一方面是政策端的不支持，另一方面主 要还是猪价承压，二育补栏积极性不高，进而对猪价支撑力度下降，且前期二育猪源正择机出栏，也会限制后市猪价的反弹幅度。 其二，屠宰企业采购偏谨慎。国家级大数据中心监测显示，11月6-12日期间，全国屠宰企业开工均率为34.36%，环比下跌0.7%，较前一周下跌 0.24个百分点。这也说明屠企对高价猪源的接受度和采购意愿并不强。 来源：猪好多网 在当前猪市供需双增的情况下，市场供需博弈进一步加深，反映到猪价具体走势上，生猪行情持续的磨底震荡。值得关注的是，今日猪价止跌企 稳，东北、西北全域飘红，不过猪价上涨动力略显不足的迹象还是比较明显，单日反弹幅度大部分在0.10元/公斤以内。 | | | 猪好多数据 - 全国各省市生猪价格外三元报价表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年11月16日 (単位: 元/公斤) | | | | 省市 | 2025/11/16 | 2025/10/16 | 较昨日涨跌 | 较上月涨跌 | | 辽宁 ...

11月13日智农通 APP行 情宝数据显示，今日全国生猪均价为11.71元/公斤，与昨日相比价格下跌0.07元/ 公斤，月环比上涨7.4%，同比下跌29.3%。猪价跌幅收窄。 全国20个省份均价下跌，2个省份均价上涨，其他省份均价持稳。均价最低省份为贵州，外三元生猪均 价为11.04元/公斤；均价最高省份为福建（除海南外），外三元生猪均价为12.60元/公斤。其中，甘肃 跌幅最大，今日均价环比下跌0.25元/公斤；仅河南、陕西小幅微涨。 分区域来看，北方产区受集团场集中出栏影响，价格承压明显，而南方销区则因运输成本及区域供需关 系支撑相对坚挺。其中，甘肃、新疆等西北地区跌幅较为突出，局部市场面临生猪调运不畅与需求疲软 的双重压力。尽管河南、陕西等省份出现微幅反弹，但整体来看，全国多数地区仍呈现稳中偏弱格局。 展望后市，行情宝预计短期内猪价或维持窄幅震荡态势，局部地区可能出现小幅企稳迹象。但受制于供 需基本面未现根本性改善，持续上行缺乏足够动力。建议养殖户密切关注区域价差变化，合理安排出栏 节奏，避免盲目压栏加剧市场波动。市场整体仍需等待消费端实质性回暖或政策面新动向才能打破当前 僵持局面。 从期货市场表现来看 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices are generally under pressure and may continue a weak trend due to slow adjustment of reproductive sow capacity, significant growth in pig production capacity, high supply pressure, and potential increase in southern curing demand [4][6]. - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom because of continuous decline in chick sales, low replenishment enthusiasm, continuous increase in old - hen culling, a slight decrease in laying - hen inventory, high current laying - hen inventory, high supply pressure, and weak consumption [7][8]. Summary by Directory I. Pig 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of live pigs stopped falling after a low - level shock, and the spot price rebounded briefly and then declined again. The Zhengzhou outer ternary price dropped from 12,380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,800 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was close to the spot price [4]. 2. Breeding Situation - Pig farming is facing serious losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 89.21 yuan per head. Feed raw material prices were stable or rising, and the pig - grain ratio was 5.6, below the break - even line [4]. 3. Production Capacity - The adjustment of reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. At this pace, it will take nearly 3 years to complete the policy - required reduction of 1 million heads. The national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23% [4]. - From the perspective of large - scale farms, the adjustment progress is also slow. In September, the reproductive sow inventory of large - scale farms was 5.0421 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month. The number of piglet births increased slightly month - on - month, and the sales volume decreased. The inventory of commercial pigs increased month - on - month, and the proportion of fat pigs increased slightly [5]. 4. Demand - In October, the sales volume of commercial pigs from large - scale farms reached a new high in recent years. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. Downstream slaughter enterprises became profitable again, and the operating rate was stable and higher than the same period last year. As of November 7, the operating rate of 81 slaughter enterprises was 33.49%, a slight month - on - month increase. The southern curing demand may gradually increase [6]. II. Egg 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of eggs rebounded and then declined again. The spot price dropped, and the price of eggs in Xishui, the main producing area, decreased from 3,380 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was at a premium [7]. 2. Breeding Situation - Egg - chicken farming continues to be slightly loss - making. As of November 7, the national egg - chicken farming profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken. The loss cycle has lasted for nearly 9 months. In October, the chick sales volume was 35.88 million feathers, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years [7]. 3. Production Capacity - The culling of old hens continued to increase. In October, the culling volume of old hens at sample points was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. The laying - hen inventory decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time this year, but still increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The laying - hen inventory may decline seasonally in the fourth quarter [7][8]. 4. Consumption - Egg consumption is relatively stable and depends on festival consumption stimulation. After October, consumption was insufficient, and the egg sales volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [8].

（来源：猪易通） 立冬后气温骤降，东北、华北地区家庭猪肉采购量增加，广西、云南等地腌腊零星开启，大规模备货尚 未启动，肥猪需求增量不足。河南今日猪价由稳转弱，广东继续稳定，散户大部分稳定为主。短期有北 方挺价情绪和南方腌腊预期支撑猪价。立冬来了，猪价要涨了吗？ 600人参加2026生猪产业数据研讨会！ 500余人参与2026种仔猪采销大会！ 来源：市场资讯 山东，大场，稳定，价格6.15元/斤 山东，烟台，标6.23，中大6.45-7.56 山东，潍坊，6.123，323左右6.4 山东，泰安，6-6.12小杀6.234 山东，聊城，小杀6.234 山东，日照，标猪256的，昨天下午6.12，今早加一毛 山东，滨州，6.12 河南，洛阳，标猪5.89大猪6.23456 河南，郑州，标猪6.1 河南，信阳，400肥的 7块 河南，南阳，标猪5块9，稳定，323三元6.4 河南，济源，450斤的给6.6毛 河南，鹤壁，标猪5.9 河南，三门峡，标 5.95 河南，开封，323的也得6.34毛 河南，平顶山，410左右6.9 河南，驻马店，标猪5.9-6，430斤膘猪6.85 湖北，大场，涨1毛 湖北，武汉，6.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure in the pig farming industry remains significant in Q4, but ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to positively impact pig prices in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Since May 2024, pig production capacity has increased, leading to continued supply growth expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, which will exert pressure on pig prices [1] - The industry is actively implementing "anti-involution" strategies, focusing on controlling production capacity, reducing weight, and limiting second breeding [1] Policy and Market Impact - The enforcement of policies is expected to intensify, coupled with recent low pig prices and increasing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of production capacity [1] - A new upward trend in pig prices is anticipated in the second half of next year [1] Industry Index Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers various sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].