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瑞银证券孟磊:A股公司盈利增速将攀升至8%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:48
孟磊表示,当前A股市场的股权风险溢价仍高于历史均值,而其它新兴市场股市显著低于长期均值。中 期来看,增量的宏观政策、A股盈利增长加速叠加无风险利率下行、居民存款持续往股市"搬家"、长线 资金持续净流入股市以及市值管理改革的持续推进,将助力A股市场估值进一步上行。 (文章来源:证券时报) 展望2026年,可重点关注四大投资主题:一是科技自立自强主线;二是消费板块,全年企业盈利提速有 望逐步带动居民收入与销售费用提升,建议于下半年择时布局;三是"反内卷"相关板块;四是中国企业 出海与全球竞争力提升赛道。 他表示,在风格配置方面,由于市场中期展望向好,"成长"风格可能跑赢"价值"风格。随着"反内卷"的 持续推进,推动PPI跌幅收窄且工业企业利润提速,"周期"风格有望跑赢"防御"风格,大小盘板块会在 2026年维持一个相对均衡的态势。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊展望,2026年,名义GDP(国内生产总值)增速提升、PPI(工业生 产者出厂价格指数)跌幅收窄将推动企业营收增长;叠加支持政策落地与"反内卷"进程深化带动利润率 修复,预计全部A股公司盈利增速有望进一步攀升至8%。 ...
A股公司盈利增速将攀升至8%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2026-01-04 17:30
瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊展望,2026年,名义GDP(国内生产总值)增速提升、PPI(工业生产者 出厂价格指数)跌幅收窄将推动企业营收增长;叠加支持政策落地与"反内卷"进程深化带动利润率修 复,预计全部A股公司盈利增速有望进一步攀升至8%。 孟磊表示,当前A股市场的股权风险溢价仍高于历史均值,而其它新兴市场股市显著低于长期均值。中 期来看,增量的宏观政策、A股盈利增长加速叠加无风险利率下行、居民存款持续往股市"搬家"、长线 资金持续净流入股市以及市值管理改革的持续推进,将助力A股市场估值进一步上行。 展望2026年,可重点关注四大投资主题:一是科技自立自强主线;二是消费板块,全年企业盈利提速有 望逐步带动居民收入与销售费用提升,建议于下半年择时布局;三是"反内卷"相关板块;四是中国企业 出海与全球竞争力提升赛道。 他表示,在风格配置方面,由于市场中期展望向好,"成长"风格可能跑赢"价值"风格。随着"反内卷"的 持续推进,推动PPI跌幅收窄且工业企业利润提速,"周期"风格有望跑赢"防御"风格,大小盘板块会在 2026年维持一个相对均衡的态势。(王蕊) ...
结构性转变,有望推动中国股票继续上行
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-01-04 14:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that structural changes in the Chinese market are expected to drive continued upward momentum in Chinese stocks, particularly in technology sectors, with significant returns anticipated in 2026 [1][4]. - In 2025, the MSCI China Index saw a return rate exceeding 30%, outperforming the S&P 500's return of approximately 16.39% [1]. - Global institutions are increasingly launching China-focused ETFs, with a total of 53 ETFs listed in the U.S., amounting to approximately $31.47 billion in total assets [2]. Group 2 - The largest Chinese ETFs in the U.S. include KWEB, MCHI, FXI, CQQQ, and ASHR, with KWEB having the largest size at $8.02 billion [2]. - CQQQ was a standout performer in 2025, attracting over $2 billion in inflows, while KWEB and MCHI received inflows of approximately $1.973 billion and $871 million, respectively [2]. - The interest in non-U.S. ETFs, including those focused on China, is expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by attractive valuations compared to U.S. stocks [3]. Group 3 - UBS Wealth Management forecasts that advanced manufacturing and technology will be key growth drivers for the Chinese market in 2026, supported by increased government R&D investment [4]. - The Chinese government aims to boost R&D spending to at least 3.2% of GDP by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% [4]. - Abundant liquidity, with approximately 7 trillion RMB in household savings, is expected to flow into the stock market, particularly in sectors like cloud computing, e-commerce, and AI [5].
结构性转变,有望推动中国股票继续上行
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that structural changes in the Chinese market are expected to drive continued upward momentum in Chinese stocks, particularly in the technology sector, with significant inflows into ETFs tracking these stocks [2][9]. - In 2025, the MCHI index, which tracks the MSCI China Index, achieved a return rate exceeding 30%, while the S&P 500 index returned approximately 16.39% during the same period [2]. - The total scale of 53 Chinese ETFs listed in the US is approximately $31.47 billion (about 220 billion RMB), with the largest being KWEB at $8.02 billion and MCHI at $7.78 billion [4]. Group 2 - The CQQQ ETF saw over $2 billion in inflows in 2025, making it a significant winner among Chinese ETFs, while KWEB and MCHI also received substantial inflows of $1.973 billion and $871 million, respectively [4]. - The interest in non-US ETFs, including Chinese ETFs, is expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by attractive valuations compared to US stocks [7]. - UBS forecasts that advanced manufacturing and technology will be new growth engines for the Chinese economy, with R&D spending expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of at least 7% by 2030 [9].
兴银投资累计投放资金规模超60亿元
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-01-04 13:49
(编辑 张昕) 据悉,兴银投资针对传统产业资产盘活难、经营效能低、数智协同弱和新兴产业技术壁垒高、研发周期长、成果转化慢等 痛点,以债转股工具精准匹配不同主体、不同周期的融资需求,首批落地的10余个项目资金投向半导体、光伏、锂矿、工程塑 料等新能源、新材料产业,涵盖福建、广东、上海、安徽、山东等地区科创企业、民营企业,有效助力企业优化资本结构,深 化转型发展,创造长期价值。 兴银投资公司负责人表示,将依托母行集团化经营优势,坚持差异化竞争,以服务高水平科技自立自强为使命,以市场化 债转股为主业,立足福建、辐射全国,因地制宜加大对新能源、新材料、人工智能、生物医药、先进制造等领域的投资力度, 加快申请私募股权投资牌照,助力"硬科技"企业突破"卡脖子"难题,同时持续加强投资生态圈建设,为客户提供全生命周期金 融服务。 本报讯 (记者熊悦)记者从兴业银行获悉,作为全国首家获批筹建、获批开业的股份制银行AIC,兴银金融资产投资有限 公司(以下简称"兴银投资")持续加大对传统产业"智改数转"、新兴产业"聚链成群"的支持力度,自2025年11月16日正式揭牌 运营以来,截至12月31日,公司累计投放资金规模超60亿元。 ...
香港金融市场:为内地前沿科企提供资金,超400家新企已上市
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 06:30
【1月4日香港财政司司长称港金融市场可为内地前沿科企提供资金支持】1月4日,香港特区政府财政司 司长陈茂波表示,国家推进高水平科技自立自强,香港金融市场能为内地前沿科企提供有力资金支持。 截至去年年底,超400家新公司在港上市。预计今年申请上市企业中,前沿科企将陆续到来。 本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...
岳阳市第十六中学:全会精神润心田 青春奋进担使命
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 04:33
报告中,孙文才主席立足全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》核 心要义,结合自身深耕文艺领域与基层工作的丰富经验,从全会召开的重大历史意义切入,深入阐释了"十五 五"时期作为基本实现社会主义现代化关键阶段的战略定位。他采用"宏大战略+身边实例"的宣讲模式,以通俗易 懂的语言精准解读全会提出的高质量发展、科技自立自强、共同富裕等七大发展目标,将"建设现代化产业体 系""深化改革释放发展潜力"等重大部署与岳阳本地发展实践、校园教育教学紧密衔接,让抽象的政策理论转化为 可感可知的现实图景。 针对青少年学生群体,孙文才主席重点围绕"青春与使命"展开深度论述,鼓励同学们深刻认清"十五五"时期的历 史机遇与时代挑战,主动将个人成长融入国家发展大局。他结合经典文艺作品中的励志故事,引导同学们树立正 确的价值观,在勤学善思中锤炼过硬本领,在品德修养中砥砺高尚品格,以脚踏实地的实际行动响应全会号召, 用青春力量书写民族复兴的时代篇章。 此次宣讲活动为学校思政教育注入了鲜活的时代内涵,不仅帮助师生们精准把握了党的二十届四中全会的精神实 质和实践要求,还搭建了个人理想与国家发展蓝图对接的桥梁。对 ...
A股能否延续涨势?金价还有多少上行空间?四大国际投行研判2026年
天天基金网· 2026-01-04 01:06
Group 1 - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in China for 2026, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and supportive measures in fiscal and real estate policies [3] - Key positive changes include flexible policies, resilient corporate performance in sectors like AI and biopharmaceuticals, and increased interest from overseas investors in Chinese assets [3] - The outlook for China's exports remains strong, with domestic demand policies being a critical variable for 2026 [3] Group 2 - UBS is optimistic about the continued upward trend of the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [4] - Structural changes are expected to support the rise of Chinese stocks, with AI and technology being key long-term growth drivers [4] - UBS forecasts a 37% growth in earnings per share for the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2026, supported by strong liquidity and favorable policies [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and a potential interest rate cut cycle [6] - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 70 tons of gold monthly in 2026, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases [6] - Goldman Sachs also sees copper prices strengthening due to supply constraints and sustained demand, maintaining a long-term price target of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [6] Group 4 - Nomura expects that the investment boom driven by AI and supportive monetary and fiscal policies will continue to propel global economic growth in 2026 [7] - Despite challenges such as reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal policy space, the AI-led investment trend is anticipated to provide a strong foundation for economic performance [7] - Nomura forecasts stable and accelerating growth in the global economy for 2026, although growth will be uneven across regions [7]
调整部分商品关税税率税目——我国持续扩大高水平对外开放
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2026-01-03 22:16
Core Viewpoint - The "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan" aims to scientifically adjust import provisional tax rates, optimize tariff categories, and continue implementing agreement and preferential tax rates, which will support the development of new productive forces and meet the growing needs of the people while promoting high-quality development [1]. Group 1: Import Provisional Tax Rate Adjustments - The plan will implement provisional tax rates lower than the most-favored-nation rate for 935 items to enhance the linkage between domestic and international markets and expand the supply of quality goods [1]. - Key components include reducing import tariffs on critical components and advanced materials to promote high-level technological self-reliance and the construction of a modern industrial system [1]. - Tariff reductions will also support the green transformation of the economy and society by lowering tariffs on resource-based products like lithium-ion battery recycled black powder [2]. Group 2: Support for Healthcare and Living Standards - The adjustment will lower import tariffs on medical products such as artificial blood vessels and diagnostic kits for certain infectious diseases, reflecting a people-centered development philosophy [2]. - This move is expected to enhance public health and improve the well-being of citizens, particularly in addressing cardiovascular diseases [2]. - The tariff reductions on medical devices and pharmaceuticals aim to increase the supply of quality goods and reduce the medical burden on consumers [2]. Group 3: Optimization of Tariff Categories - The plan will add new tariff categories for emerging products like intelligent bionic robots and bio-aviation kerosene, increasing the total number of tariff categories to 8,972 [3]. - This adjustment will help industries and companies accurately grasp trade data and assess overseas market trends, facilitating the formulation of effective development strategies [3]. - The plan continues to implement agreement rates for certain imported goods from 34 trade partners, promoting regional integration and economic cooperation [3]. Group 4: Support for Least Developed Countries - The plan will maintain zero tariff treatment for 100% of products from 43 least developed countries, supporting their development [3]. - It will also continue to apply preferential tax rates for certain imported goods from countries like Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar under relevant trade agreements [3]. - This approach demonstrates China's commitment to responding to global uncertainties with determined policies, showcasing its role as a contributor to global development [3].
把发展根基“夯”得更实
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2026-01-03 22:14
夯实根基,需要保持历史耐心和战略定力。无论是建设现代化产业体系,还是全面推进乡村振兴;无论 是实现高水平科技自立自强,还是积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,都难以毕其功于一役,都需要付出百倍 努力,来不得半点虚功、容不得丝毫马虎。要牢固树立和践行正确政绩观,保持"时时放心不下"的责任 感,增强只争朝夕的紧迫感,务实功、出实招、求实效,既做即期见效的显绩,更做打基础、增后劲、 利长远的潜绩。在工作中,坚决杜绝"把说了当做了、把做了当做成了、把做成了当做好了",避免出现 不必要的"沉降"现象,给发展留下后遗症。 站在"十五五"规划开局之年,我们对"夯实基础"有着更深刻的理解。党的二十届四中全会指出,"十五 五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,在基本实现社会主义现代化进程 中具有承前启后的重要地位。 夯实基础,就是要更加关注对发展和安全具有基础性影响的事,巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补强短 板弱项,使发展根基更稳、韧性更强。全面发力,就是要锚定目标,聚焦经济社会发展各领域协同发 力,实现系统性突破、整体性提升。 九层之台,起于累土。越是长久基业、长远大计,越是要从基础做起、从根本抓起。推进中国式现 ...