Core Insights - The total population of the EU has surpassed 450 million, marking a historical high, but the population is projected to naturally decline by 1.26 million in 2024, with deaths exceeding births for four consecutive years, relying heavily on immigration to fill the gap [1][2][12] - The EU faces significant structural challenges due to an aging population, with a shrinking working-age demographic, increasing pension deficits, and mounting public debt pressures [1][4][5] Population Dynamics - The birth rate in many European countries remains low, with total fertility rates falling below the replacement level of 2.1, leading to severe natural population replacement issues [2][3] - The proportion of individuals aged 80 and above in the EU has increased from 3.8% in 2004 to 6.1% in 2024, while the share of those aged 65 and older has risen from 16.4% to 21.6% during the same period [2][3] - The youth population (under 15 years) has decreased from 16.2% to 14.6%, indicating a demographic shift towards an older population [2][3] Economic Implications - The aging population is driving up pension and healthcare expenditures, placing immense pressure on public finances and threatening the sustainability of welfare systems [4][5] - In Italy and Greece, pension spending constitutes about 30% of public finances, exacerbating the fiscal burden amid rising public debt [5][6] - The OECD predicts an 8% reduction in the working-age population by 2060, while public spending on pensions and healthcare is expected to increase by 3% of GDP annually [6][7] Labor Market Challenges - Labor shortages in key sectors such as manufacturing and services are contributing to declining economic vitality in Europe [5][6] - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to stagnate, with growth rates of only 1.1% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, largely due to the contraction in major economies like France and Germany [6][7] Immigration as a Solution - Immigration has become a crucial factor in offsetting natural population decline, with the EU expected to gain 1.07 million new residents and a net immigration of 2.3 million in 2024 [3][8] - Immigrants have filled approximately two-thirds of new jobs in Europe from 2019 to 2023, providing essential support to the economy [8][9] - However, the influx of immigrants has led to increased fiscal pressures and rising anti-immigrant sentiments, complicating the sustainability of immigration policies [8][10] Political and Social Challenges - The EU is experiencing rising tensions over immigration policies, with member states divided on the approach to handling asylum seekers and border controls [9][10] - The rise of far-right political movements is fueled by public discontent regarding immigration, which is perceived to threaten cultural identity and social cohesion [10][11] - The demographic changes are reshaping Europe's political and economic landscape, potentially diminishing its global influence and competitiveness [10][11]

"你以为你饭桌上的食物是怎么来的？你以为是谁洗了你的盘子？你以为是谁干的园艺活？你以为是 谁？他们就是凭借纯粹的坚韧和意志想办法来到这里的，因为他们觉得这样可以给自己和家人一个更好 的机会。"亨特·拜登边说边多次爆粗口。 福克斯新闻网称，对于亨特·拜登此番言论，白宫发言人阿比盖尔·杰克逊毫不留情地回应说，"一名海关 与边境保护局（CBP）特工刚被两名由乔·拜登放进美国的非法犯罪移民击中面部，而亨特更关心的是 谁在他狂欢之后打扫酒店房间。" 【环球网报道】据美国福克斯新闻网21日报道，美国前总统乔·拜登之子亨特·拜登近日在接受网络节目 采访时，激烈批评特朗普政府移民政策，其间一度情绪激动，多次爆粗口。白宫方面迅速对亨特·拜登 相关言论作出回应，抨击拜登家族"冷酷无情"、"充满恶意"。 亨特·拜登（右）近日接 受网络节目采访。图为美媒发布的采访视频截图 "难道我不应该同情某个人吗？难道我要像所有这些民主党人一样，（只是）说'你必须谈论并意识到人 们对非法移民（问题）感到很沮丧'吗？去你X的。你以为你的酒店房间是怎么被打扫的？"亨特·拜登 称。 杰克逊继续抨击拜登家族"冷酷无情、自私自利、满怀恶意的态度，正是乔·拜 ...

Core Insights - The significant reduction in immigration and large-scale deportation policies are expected to negatively impact economic growth, contrary to claims that new budget proposals will boost growth above 3% [1][2] - The new budget allocates $70 billion for border security and $75 billion for domestic enforcement, which may lead to a decrease in population and labor force, adversely affecting economic growth [1][2] - A projected sharp decline in undocumented immigrants this year could lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, given the historical average growth rate of about 2.5% [1][2] Immigration Policy Impact - If the Trump administration achieves its goal of deporting one million people annually, the economic drag could increase to 1.5 percentage points by 2027 [2] - The current U.S. economy is nearing full employment, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% for native workers in 2024, making the impact of reduced immigration on the labor market more pronounced [2] - The claim that limiting immigration will create job opportunities for native workers is challenged by data showing that native workers occupy only 1/8 of the jobs held by undocumented immigrants, which are often low-paying and physically demanding [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The complementary relationship between native workers and undocumented immigrants suggests that deportation may not create jobs for natives, as evidenced by past enforcement programs that reduced native employment rates and wages [2] - Automation and AI are unlikely to quickly fill the gap left by undocumented immigrants, as current AI applications primarily replace professional and clerical jobs rather than manual labor [3] - Strict immigration controls may deter STEM workers and students, delaying technological advancements and negatively impacting long-term productivity growth [3] Future Considerations - The U.S. faces a demographic challenge with an aging workforce and declining birth rates, necessitating a forward-looking immigration policy rather than merely reducing immigration and increasing deportations [3] - Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to begin declining by 2033, which could constrain economic growth [3] - To achieve its economic growth objectives, the administration should reconsider its restrictive immigration policies [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany has strengthened border controls regarding immigration policy, but it will take time to see the intended effects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度。 特约评论员 熊夏柠 据相关报道，截至7 月 14 日，日本10年期国债收益率升至近两个月高点，至1.55%。这是自5月23日以 来的最高水平。同时，30年期日本国债收益率上涨6.5个基点至3.111%，而20年期日本国债收益率上涨 至2.56%。两年期日本国债收益率小幅上涨至 0.775%，五年期日本国债收益率上涨至1.066%。 长期国债收益率连创新高，显示了投资者对日本经济的悲观态度，虽然此前日本政府认为没有必要采取 特别应对措施，但是考虑到通胀、关税等因素，会否对日本即将到来的参议院选举平添影响或是变数 呢？ 日本通胀的抬头，以及开启加息进程，令市场对加息的预期升温，反映在了国债收益率。日本1月份核 心消费者通胀达到3.2%，为19个月来的最高水平，超过了日本央行设定的2%的目标。 民以食为天，对于日本民众而言，也在经历"米荒"，日本政府认为，这是旅游恢复、餐饮业繁荣、大米 需求量激增等多因素造成大米短缺并拉升了零售价格。相关数据显示，2020年至2023年，日本大米产量 减少超过60万吨；2023年大米收成更是创历史最低，仅达到661万吨。日 ...

【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：7月20日是日本参议院选举的投票日。除了物价上涨、同美国关税谈判问题之外，外国人问题也首次进入日本的 竞选议程，成为选举中的焦点议题之一。在日本人口老龄化、劳动力不足的背景下，该国不得不重视外国人带来的经济社会效益。但与此同时， 日本部分媒体和民众关于"外国人威胁公共安全""外国人不合理占用福利"等的抱怨声渐强，部分右翼政党也试图通过迎合这种不满情绪来吸引选 民。对此，有日媒批评称，日本政府长期对移民政策采取回避、放任态度是外国人问题根源所在。也有日媒发出警告称，让外国人充当经济社会 问题"替罪羊"的做法，有可能会在整个社会范围内传播排外思想，不利于包容性社会的构建。 一些针对外国人的指控 " 并没有事实依据 " 随着日本加速引进外国劳工和人才，在日外国人数量连续3年创新高。截至去年年底，在日外国人口约为376.9万，同比增长10.5%，其中永居者约 为91.8万，在各移民类别中数量最多。从移民来源国看，中国占比最高（23.2%），越南（16.8%）和韩国（10.9%）紧随其后。此外，外国游客的 数字更是庞大。去年，日本共迎来超过3300万名外国游客，超过了疫情前水平，旅游也成为 ...

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that tariffs, immigration policies, and deficits are contributing to inflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are identified as a factor leading to inflation [1] - Immigration policies are also highlighted as a contributing element to inflation [1] - The issue of deficits is mentioned as a significant driver of inflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.29%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.20% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.18%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.09% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.20%, priced at $68.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.16%, priced at $70.26 per barrel [1] Corporate Insights - Bank of America has raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 5600 to 6300, with a 12-month target of 6600, citing strong corporate resilience despite economic challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously expected, due to moderate inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The Mannheim used car value index has seen a significant increase, with a 1.6% month-over-month rise and a 6.3% year-over-year increase, attributed to tariffs affecting new car sales [3] - Apple is undergoing a major management change as COO Jeff Williams retires, with Sabih Khan set to take over amid challenges such as tariff costs and slowing iPhone growth [6] - Google is focusing its AI investments on infrastructure, with a commitment of approximately $75 billion for data center development [7] - Starbucks' China business is attracting bids with a valuation of up to $10 billion, with several private equity firms interested in acquiring stakes [8] - WPP has issued a profit warning, lowering its 2025 revenue forecast by 3% to 5% due to client losses, including a significant contract with Mars worth $1.7 billion [9] - Merck is nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharmaceuticals, focusing on respiratory drug development [10]