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港股银行板块战略配置机遇
2025-06-26 15:51
港股银行板块战略配置机遇 20260626 摘要 南向资金持续流入港股,2025 年前六个月累计净流入超 7,000 亿港元, 创历史新高,增强了港股市场的流动性和稳定性,尤其是在贸易摩擦和 地缘政治风险背景下,对港股银行板块形成支撑。 2025 年 5 月降准降息,虽短期内可能压缩银行息差,但长期来看,通 过刺激信贷需求、降低企业财务成本和优化资产质量,整体利好银行板 块,叠加房地产支持政策,有助于缓释资产风险。 2025 年一季度银行营收和净利润同比下降,主要受利率上行导致非息 收入大幅负增长拖累,但核心净利息收入降幅收窄,中收回暖,上市银 行核心营收呈现边际改善。 港股银行板块投资逻辑延续资金面和交易面共振主导的估值修复,预计 2025 年基本面保持稳定,险资对低波稳定权益资产的配置需求及 ETF 扩容构成利好,逢低配置是较好的投资策略。 港股银行板块优于 A 股,体现在其在恒生指数中占比高,是配置港股的 必选行业;顺周期属性更强,在经济预期复苏背景下获得溢价;香港本 地银行贡献超额收益;且估值更低,性价比更高。 Q&A 截至 2025 年 6 月 17 日,港股市场表现如何,其上涨的主要驱动因素是什么 ...
E目了然 | 多利好因素共振,红利低波资产迎来黄金配置期!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 03:53
Core Viewpoint - In the current volatile market environment, investors are increasingly focused on how to achieve stable asset appreciation, particularly in a context of declining interest rates and rising market uncertainty. The search for asset allocation strategies that provide stable cash flow and effectively mitigate market risks has become a common concern among various investors. The dividend low-volatility strategy, characterized by "high dividend yield and low volatility," is gaining attention as a potential solution to these challenges [1]. Interest Rate Environment - The global economy has largely entered a low or even negative interest rate era, with significant reductions in deposit rates by major banks in China. For instance, as of May 20, 2025, the interest rate for one-year fixed deposits fell below 1%, and the average interest rate for current deposits dropped to 0.05% [2]. This environment has compressed the yields of traditional fixed-income products, leading to a scarcity of stable assets, while dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive due to their stable cash flow and higher dividend yields [2]. Policy Support - Regulatory bodies have intensified their focus on corporate dividend policies, with the introduction of measures linking dividend payouts to financing qualifications and shareholder behavior. For example, the "New National Nine Articles" issued in April 2024 aims to enhance shareholder return awareness among listed companies [3]. Additionally, new rules effective from January 1, 2025, will impose penalties on companies with low dividend payouts, further encouraging higher dividend distributions [3][4]. Fund Flow Dynamics - There is a notable shift in fund preferences towards dividend assets, driven by both policy support and changes in market dynamics. Long-term funds, such as insurance and pension funds, are increasingly allocating capital to high-dividend assets, with projections indicating an influx of approximately 600 billion to 800 billion yuan over the next three years [6]. This trend is expected to enhance the valuation of dividend assets and benefit related funds, such as the TaiKang Dividend Low-Volatility ETF [6]. Market Conditions - The current A-share market is characterized by volatility, influenced by international trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Despite maintaining stable growth, domestic economic indicators show signs of weakening, leading to a challenging investment environment. In this context, dividend low-volatility assets are positioned as a strategic choice for investors seeking stability and returns [19][20]. Investment Strategy - The dividend low-volatility strategy combines high dividend yield and low volatility characteristics, providing a robust investment framework. The CSI Dividend Low-Volatility Index selects stocks based on liquidity, consistent dividend payments, and low volatility, aiming to deliver stable returns while minimizing risk [14][15]. This strategy is particularly appealing in turbulent market conditions, as it has historically demonstrated strong defensive capabilities [19][20]. Conclusion - Overall, the combination of supportive policies, increasing fund inflows, and favorable market conditions positions dividend low-volatility assets as an attractive investment opportunity. These assets not only offer stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment but also serve as a defensive strategy in volatile markets, making them a preferred choice for investors seeking to navigate economic cycles effectively [20].
红利低波ETF(512890):震荡市中的“稳稳幸福”,年内回报超4%强势尽显!
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-10 06:20
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced fluctuations in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.43% and the ChiNext Index declining by 3.75% as of June 9, 2023. However, the dividend low-volatility strategy has shown resilience, with the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index rising over 2.84% year-to-date, and the flagship Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) returning 4.16% in the same period, providing a stable investment option in a volatile market [1][3][7]. Group 1: Policy Support - The Chinese government has emphasized attracting more "patient capital" and long-term investments, aligning with the core principles of the dividend low-volatility strategy, which focuses on stable earnings and high dividends from quality companies [3]. - The policy signals encourage value investing, reinforcing the underlying logic of the dividend low-volatility strategy [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Increased risk aversion among investors has led to a significant inflow into the Dividend Low Volatility ETF, with its cumulative circulation scale increasing by 40.47 billion, surpassing 174.46 billion, marking a historical high [4]. - The ETF serves as a "safe haven" for investors seeking certainty in returns amid market volatility [4]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - In the context of declining bank wealth management yields and deposit rates, high-quality income-generating assets have become increasingly valuable, with the average dividend yield of the dividend low-volatility index significantly exceeding that of ten-year government bonds and mainstream wealth management products [5]. - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) is designed to select companies with consistent dividends and stable earnings, providing substantial cash returns to shareholders [6]. Group 4: Performance and Strategy - Historical data indicates that the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the market over the long term, demonstrating strong resilience during bear and volatile markets, characterized by smaller declines and competitive rebounds [6]. - The ETF offers a low-cost, efficient way to invest in a diversified portfolio of 30-50 high-dividend, low-volatility core assets, reducing individual stock risk [6]. Group 5: Current Market Position - The current valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, and while economic recovery may require patience, there are signs of improvement. The dividend low-volatility assets provide a dual advantage of high dividends and low volatility, making them a cornerstone for investment portfolios amid market uncertainties [7].
红利低波ETF(512890)连续4个交易日获净流入,最新规模突破170亿元
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-04 06:12
Core Insights - The market has seen a rising interest in dividend strategies, particularly since late May 2025, with significant net inflows into dividend-themed ETFs [1][2] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has attracted 790 million yuan in net inflows over a four-day period, making it the only dividend-themed ETF to exceed 750 million yuan in net inflows during this timeframe [1] - The ETF has reached a historical high in both fund size and total assets, with a current scale of 171.51 billion yuan and 146.79 million units [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility Index has achieved a dividend yield of 6.3% over the past year, with the gap between this yield and the market's risk-free rate widening to a near ten-year high of 97.85% [2] - The ETF is positioned as an attractive investment option for long-term capital appreciation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The ETF's connected funds have announced a dividend distribution of 0.05 yuan per 10 fund shares, marking 20 consecutive months of dividends with a total exceeding 200 million yuan [2] Group 2: Market Position and Management - The connected funds of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF have a total of 829,800 account holders, making it the only dividend-themed index fund with over 800,000 holders in the market [2] - The Y share of the ETF has become the first index fund to exceed 100 million yuan in size within the personal pension investment category [2] - Huatai-PB, a pioneer in ETF management, has over 18 years of experience in dividend index investment and has developed a diverse range of dividend-themed ETFs [2]
左手红利低波,防守一波!右手通用航空,放手一搏!
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-28 09:12
800红利低波ETF(159355)跟踪中证800红利低波动指数,该指数以中证800指数作为样本空间,采用 红利低波策略筛选沪深两市的优质大中盘龙头,不含微盘股,更具成熟度,表现更稳健,适合作为压舱 石。 放手一搏,直上九天:通用航空ETF华宝(159231) 通用航空ETF华宝(159231)跟踪国证通用航空指数,覆盖低空经济、军民融合、大飞机、商业航天、 飞行汽车等领域,同时重点布局技术壁垒和商业化核心环节(飞行器制造),更契合产业链现状,市场 空间广阔。指数历史表现更具弹性和爆发力,可以作为进攻的选择。 一手画方,一手画圆——这是《射雕英雄传》中的巅峰辅助型武学"左右互搏术"的第一要义,学会了左 右互搏,纵使内力不能增加,但招式却增加了一倍,在战斗中便可占尽优势。借此,郭靖可以右手与裘 千仞相斗,左手回挡欧阳锋。 对于低空经济板块的持续回调行情,中航证券指出,调整是暂时的也是良性的,低空经济产业不是短期 的热点概念,是国家顶层战略规划支持的重点发展方向,具有较强的可持续性,是值得长期投资,耐心 投资的重要赛道。截至5月28日,通用航空ETF华宝(159231)已从阶段高点连续回调超5%,当下或许 是逢跌 ...
低利率牵引长线资金,红利低波资产稳驭震荡周期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-28 03:09
Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by increased volatility and a downward trend in interest rates, making the dividend low-volatility strategy attractive due to its dual advantages of high dividends and low volatility [1][2] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates by major banks, with the one-year fixed deposit rate dropping below 1%, have diminished the appeal of traditional deposit products, leading to a growing interest in dividend low-volatility indices [1][2] - The introduction of policies aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and improving the dividend system has led to a shift in long-term capital towards dividend low-volatility assets, positioning them as a core strategic allocation [1][3] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a state of fluctuation, supported by policies but lacking strong catalysts for upward movement, with dividend low-volatility assets serving as a defensive anchor [2][3] - The "dividend season" from May to July is expected to further boost the attractiveness of dividend indices as bond market yields decline and dividend yields rise [2][3] - The average dividend payout ratio for A-share companies has improved to 37.7% in 2024, the highest level since 2010, indicating a positive trend in dividend willingness and capability among listed companies [3] Group 3 - The new policies linking corporate dividends to financing qualifications and imposing risk warnings on low-dividend companies are expected to enhance the awareness of shareholder returns among listed companies [3][4] - Long-term funds, including insurance and social security funds, are increasingly favoring high-dividend assets, with an estimated 570 billion yuan in incremental funds expected from insurance capital in 2025 [3][4] - The dividend low-volatility index combines high dividend and low volatility factors, creating a stable investment portfolio that captures high-dividend companies while filtering out high-volatility stocks [4][5] Group 4 - The low-volatility dividend index shows significant sector weightings, with nearly 50% in the banking sector, which aligns well with the characteristics of high dividend and low volatility [5][7] - The new public fund regulations are reshaping asset allocation logic, with a notable underweight in the banking, transportation, and construction sectors compared to the index benchmarks, creating a structural mismatch [7][9] - If public funds increase their allocation to the three major sectors to historical median levels, it could lead to an estimated 300 billion yuan in additional liquidity for the low-volatility dividend index [9]
红利+低波动双因子加持!红利低波ETF长城(159228)正在发行
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-27 03:11
Group 1 - The central bank's interest rate cut in May led to a decrease in deposit rates across multiple banks, with the one-year fixed deposit rate of the four major banks dropping below 1% to 0.95%, marking a historical low [1] - The shift towards a "moderately loose" monetary policy in China has resulted in a clear downward trend in interest rates, with the current 10-year government bond yield at approximately 1.70%, which enhances the attractiveness of dividend assets [1][2] - The launch of the Changcheng CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF on May 26 aims to provide investors with a convenient tool for investing in high-quality dividend assets, utilizing an index investment strategy that closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index [2] Group 2 - The CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index selects 100 high-quality companies from the A-share market based on liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yield, and low volatility, effectively combining dividend strategy with low volatility factors [2][3] - The index has demonstrated strong defensive characteristics in bear and volatile markets while also showing upward momentum in bull markets, with a cumulative increase of 2091.08% since its base date, and an annualized return of 17.82% [3] - The index undergoes quarterly adjustments, allowing for a stronger self-iteration capability to quickly respond to market changes and capture favorable dividend trends [3]
基金Y份额突破百亿大关 红利低波策略受青睐
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 14:28
Core Insights - The personal pension system is rapidly evolving into a significant market, with nationwide implementation set for December 15, 2024, following initial trials in 36 cities [1] - Fund investments are gaining traction as a key component of personal pensions, with the total scale of 289 public fund Y-share products exceeding 11.39 billion yuan, marking a 21.28% increase from the end of 2024 [1][2] - The introduction of 85 equity index funds into the personal pension investment product catalog has led to a remarkable growth in their total scale, surpassing 300 million yuan within a month of launch [1][2] Fund Performance and Strategy - The HuaTai BaRui Dividend Low Volatility ETF Link Y has emerged as a leading product, with a scale exceeding 1.22 billion yuan and a holder count of approximately 7500, making it the only index fund Y-share product to surpass 100 million yuan [2][3] - The dividend low volatility strategy aligns well with personal pension investment goals, offering low fees, stable styles, and transparent holdings, which help mitigate risks and enhance long-term returns [2][3] - The HuaTai BaRui Dividend Low Volatility ETF Link A has shown strong performance since its inception, with a net value growth rate of 89.61%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [6] Market Conditions and Opportunities - The dividend low volatility index's dividend yield has risen from 4.97% to 6.13% in 2025, indicating a favorable environment for this investment strategy [10] - The risk premium for the dividend low volatility index has reached a high point, with the yield difference between the index and the 10-year government bond yield at 98.63% of its historical peak [10] - Trading activity for the dividend low volatility index remains moderate, suggesting that it is not overheated, which is beneficial for long-term pension investments [13]
红利低波策略攻守兼备,红利低波100ETF(159307)连续3天净流入
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 06:23
从资金净流入方面来看,红利低波100ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入,最高单日获得1236.35万元净流 入,合计"吸金"1953.39万元,日均净流入达651.13万元。 数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。红利低波100ETF前一交易日融资净买额达1174.41万元,最新融资余 额达1696.08万元。 截至4月21日,红利低波100ETF近1年净值上涨5.49%,居可比基金第一。从收益能力看,截至2025年4 月22日,红利低波100ETF自成立以来,最高单月回报为15.11%,最长连涨月数为2个月,最长连涨涨幅 为5.84%,涨跌月数比为6/5,上涨月份平均收益率为4.09%,历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至 2025年4月21日,红利低波100ETF近1年超越基准年化收益为6.57%,排名可比基金1/4。 回撤方面,截至2025年4月21日,红利低波100ETF今年以来最大回撤6.18%,相对基准回撤0.10%,在可 比基金中回撤最小。 费率方面,红利低波100ETF管理费率为0.15%,托管费率为0.05%,费率在可比基金中最低。 跟踪精度方面,截至2025年4月21日,红利低波100ETF近1 ...
个人养老金基金有望再扩容,如何选择养老“搭子”?
券商中国· 2025-04-10 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The personal pension product catalog is expected to expand, providing new long-term allocation opportunities for index funds [1][3]. Group 1: Personal Pension System Development - Since the pilot program launched in November 2022, the personal pension system has been steadily advancing, with the number of accounts opened continuously increasing [2][4]. - As of the end of November 2024, over 72 million personal pension accounts have been opened across 36 pilot cities [4]. - The investment approach for pension funds is transitioning from savings and insurance to a more diversified and market-oriented strategy [4]. Group 2: Index Funds and Investment Strategies - The recent notification from local securities regulatory authorities allows public fund managers to apply for index funds to be included in the personal pension product catalog on a quarterly basis [3]. - The criteria for inclusion require funds to track widely recognized core broad-based indices or suitable long-term value investment indices, with specific hard indicators such as a minimum fund size of 1 billion yuan [3]. - The "dividend + low volatility" strategy is highlighted as a representative asset for personal pension accounts, with the HuaTai BaRui Dividend Low Volatility ETF leading in holder numbers [2][5]. Group 3: Performance of Dividend Low Volatility ETF - The HuaTai BaRui Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has shown strong performance since its inception, with a scale exceeding 15 billion yuan as of April 2025 [7]. - This ETF has consistently achieved positive returns over six complete years, demonstrating adaptability to various market conditions [7]. - The ETF's strategy aligns well with the current market demand for sustainable and stable returns, especially in a volatile global environment [6][10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The dividend low volatility strategy is gaining traction as investors shift focus from high growth to high certainty assets in a low-interest-rate environment [10][11]. - The index tracked by the ETF has a current dividend yield of 6.19%, indicating a favorable allocation window [8]. - The ETF has attracted significant capital inflows recently, reflecting its appeal amid market fluctuations [7][9].