01 1月8日，A股三大指数震荡回调。自2025年12月以来表现活跃的卫星、航天板块，再次强势拉涨，卫 星、航空航天主题ETF"霸榜"涨幅榜前十。 02 Wind数据显示，南方中证A500ETF（159352）、华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF（563360）等6只大型中证 A500ETF，近一个月（2025年12月8日至2026年1月7日）合计吸金规模已达876.98亿元。 03 近期，海外股市整体高位震荡，国内部分QDII产品溢价率居高不下。1月8日，华夏基金、南方基金、 华泰柏瑞基金、易方达基金等多家机构旗下QDII产品发布溢价风险提示公告。 卫星ETF领涨 今日，军工板块ETF显著拉升，多只相关主题ETF涨幅超4%。此外，央企科技、工业软件、影视传媒等 主题ETF涨幅居前，多只科创主题ETF表现也较为活跃。 卫星产业链开年以来持续走强，北斗导航、空间站、商业航天等细分方向持续大幅攀升。 今日，卫星、航空航天板块再度领涨，卫星、航空航天主题ETF"霸榜"涨幅榜前十。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价(元) | 涨幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159206.SZ | 卫星E ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 01 1月8日，A股三大指数震荡回调。自2025年12月以来表现活跃的卫星、航天板块，再次强势拉涨，卫 星、航空航天主题ETF"霸榜"涨幅榜前十。 02 Wind数据显示，南方中证A500ETF（159352）、华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF（563360）等6只大型中证 A500ETF，近一个月（2025年12月8日至2026年1月7日）合计吸金规模已达876.98亿元。 03 近期，海外股市整体高位震荡，国内部分QDII产品溢价率居高不下。1月8日，华夏基金、南方基金、 华泰柏瑞基金、易方达基金等多家机构旗下QDII产品发布溢价风险提示公告。 卫星ETF领涨 卫星产业链开年以来持续走强，北斗导航、空间站、商业航天等细分方向持续大幅攀升。 今日，卫星、航空航天板块再度领涨，卫星、航空航天主题ETF"霸榜"涨幅榜前十。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价(元) | 涨幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159206.SZ | 卫星ETF | 1.883 | 6.20% | | 563230.SH | 卫星ETF ...

（基金分红数据来源：基金分红公告，华泰柏瑞基金计算，近十年数据区间为：2016/1/5-2026/1/5，以上数据均截至 2026/1/5） （数据来源：交易所，截至2024/6/30、2025/12/31，全市场ETF规模分别为3.2万亿元、6.02万亿元） 目前全市场ETF中，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF位居规模首位，达到了4313.7亿元。 2026年1月7日 晚间，华泰柏瑞基金公告，宣布变更旗下沪深300ETF（510300）的场内扩位简称为"沪深 300ETF华泰柏瑞"。 此次ETF更名，不仅是规模居首ETF产品的简称变更，更是中国ETF发展历 程中的重要时刻。 （数据来源：交易所，截至2026/1/5） 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF，是近十年来全市场全部股票型ETF中仅有的累计分红超150亿元的产品。 自2012年5月4日成立以来，累计分红总额高达165.76亿元。这只产品无论是管理规模，还是股 东回报，都承担了重要的价值创造功能。投资者买入表征中国经济发展的核心宽基指数，而这个 产品在规模增长的同时，把更多资源分配给代表中国经济的龙头企业。最后，再通过这些企业的 价值创造以一部分分红形式回馈投资者。形成 ...

Core Insights - The popularity of dividend strategy funds has surged, with significant capital inflow, particularly into low-volatility dividend ETFs, which attracted nearly 4.6 billion yuan since Q4, bringing their total scale to over 25 billion yuan [1] - The low interest rate environment makes a 5% dividend yield particularly attractive, leading to increased investment without a full understanding of suitability [1] - Dividend funds are not guaranteed profit-making instruments; they have specific target audiences and scenarios, and blind following can lead to missed opportunities [1] Fund Characteristics - Dividend strategy funds focus on stocks of companies with high dividends and stable earnings, primarily in sectors like consumer goods, finance, and utilities [3] - These funds are designed to be resilient in bear markets and can perform well in bull markets, as evidenced by positive returns during market adjustments in 2022 [3] Investment Suitability - The core value of dividend funds lies in long-term stability and cash flow, making them suitable for low-risk investors seeking steady returns, such as those nearing retirement [5] - They can also balance risk for investors with significant growth stock exposure, as they have low correlation with growth styles [5] - Long-term investors benefit from the compounding effect of reinvested dividends, with historical data showing substantial growth over extended holding periods [5] Cautionary Notes - Not all investors are suitable for dividend funds; short-term speculators may find them underperforming in fast-moving markets [6] - Conservative investors who cannot tolerate any volatility may panic and sell at a loss during downturns, misunderstanding the nature of equity products [6] - Blindly chasing high dividend yields without understanding the underlying company risks can lead to poor investment choices [6] Best Practices - Investors should prioritize larger, more liquid funds to avoid price discrepancies during trading [6] - Dividend funds should be part of a diversified portfolio rather than the sole investment, ideally combined with broad market indices and bond funds for balanced risk [6] - Long-term holding and reinvestment of dividends are crucial for maximizing returns, especially in stable market conditions [7]

- The report mentions an A-share timing model, specifically a "wave model" that turned bullish mid-week, marking the first shift to a higher position since November 14, 2025. This model is used to determine optimal entry points for A-share investments based on market signals [1][29] - A short-term timing model for A-shares also turned bullish on major broad-based indices on Friday, indicating a positive outlook for traditional sectors such as consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing [1][29] - The report highlights a "position timing strategy" for the A-share market, which is used to adjust equity exposure based on market conditions. This strategy is supported by historical net value data and performance metrics [11][12] - A "multi-long-short timing strategy" for the A-share market is also discussed, which involves leveraging long and short positions in futures to optimize returns. This strategy is visualized through net value curves and position recommendations [13][14] - The report includes a "dividend growth timing strategy" for A-shares, focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential. This strategy is designed to capture returns from dividend-paying stocks while managing risk [21] - A "small and micro-cap timing strategy" for A-shares is mentioned, targeting smaller market capitalization stocks for potential higher returns. This strategy is based on specific timing signals for small-cap stocks [17][18] - The report also discusses a "Hong Kong stock position timing strategy," which adjusts exposure to Hong Kong equities based on macroeconomic and market signals. This strategy emphasizes resilience and flexibility in sectors like central enterprises and internet companies [15] - A "gold timing strategy" is included, which maintains a medium position in gold while avoiding silver due to uncertain market conditions. This strategy is based on the U.S. dollar index and other macroeconomic factors [22] - The report outlines "ETF portfolio strategies," including equity-biased and bond-biased portfolios. These strategies are designed to optimize returns through diversified ETF investments, with performance tracked through net value curves [24][26]

作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 回顾2025年，A股市场在AI、半导体与高端制造等新兴产业带动下整体走强，中小盘风格显著，中证 2000指数涨幅超过30%。 与此同时，黄金价格持续攀升，12月22日，现货黄金9999日内涨超1.7%，再创历史新高。 而相比之下，红利资产在全年科技主导的行情中表现相对平淡。 | | 各大指数今年以来涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | | 指数名称 今年以来涨跌幅(%) | | | 北证50 | 37.96 | | 中证2000 | 30. 58 | | 中证500 | 24. 02 | | 中证1000 | 22. 07 | | 沪深300 | 15. 7 | | 上证指数 | 15. 65 | | 红利低波 | 1.04 | （来源：Choice数据，市值风云APP制表） 然而，股市激进的上涨总会告一段落，在即将到来的2026年，进攻的矛头也许正藏在当前估值优势显 著且受益于新"国九条"政策的红利资产之中。 红利资产投资价值分析 期待风格反转。 （一）红利资产具有独特的收益价值 今年以来，部分红利低波指数的涨幅表现或许不尽如人意，然而，红利资产在2025年的"黯淡 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that A-share ETFs have seen over 50 billion yuan in purchases, with a recommendation for low-volatility dividend ETFs [2][3] - The "Xinxuan ETF Absolute Return Strategy" has achieved a three-year annualized return of 14.23% with a maximum drawdown of only 8.6%, indicating strong performance [10] - The "All-Weather Multi-Asset Risk Parity Strategy" has yielded a return of 25.61% year-to-date with a maximum drawdown of 3.62% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.17, showcasing effective risk management [12][15] Group 2 - The report notes that 34 new public funds were established this week, raising a total of 18.321 billion yuan, with 13 index funds contributing 5.549 billion yuan [38] - In the A-share ETF segment, the net inflow for broad-based products was 42.9 billion yuan, with significant purchases in the CSI A500 index [47] - The report indicates that the cross-border ETF market saw a net inflow of 132 billion yuan, primarily driven by Hong Kong market ETFs [51]

2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 继续耐心布局高景气 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 2、《全球共振高位调整，耐心等待情绪 企稳 —策略周报》2025-11-23 3、《沪指围绕 4000 点震荡整固，轮动 有所加快 —策略周报》2025-11-09 4、《波动再度放大，如何应对？ —策略 周报》2025-10-12 5、《长假期间国内外大事一览—策略周 报》2025-10-09 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】做多情绪有所回升，但仍以震荡思维对待。年末市场利空或已 被充分计价，在收益率处于近期偏高水平的阶段，市场做多情绪有所回升，对 降息、公募基金费率新规落地的预期回暖。但当前债市利好落地后兑现速度较 快，预计 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) has shown strong performance and investor interest, with significant net inflows and a solid historical return since its inception in December 2018 [1][5][12]. Fund Performance - The Hongli Low Volatility ETF (512890) recorded a price of 1.176 CNY, reflecting a 0.43% increase, with a trading volume of 2.66 billion CNY, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [3][6]. - Since its establishment, the fund has achieved a return of 133.84%, significantly outperforming its benchmark and ranking 77th among 502 products [12]. Fund Inflows - The fund has attracted substantial capital, with net inflows of 7.9 billion CNY over the last 5 trading days, 4.7 billion CNY over the last 20 days, and 53 billion CNY over the last 60 days, indicating strong investor confidence [1][8]. Holdings Performance - The top ten holdings of the Hongli Low Volatility ETF exhibited mixed performance, with notable movements including a 2.03% increase in Nanjing Bank and a 1.46% decrease in COFCO Sugar [4][10]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is promoting long-term capital investment strategies and enhancing market stability, which supports the growth of equity public funds and index investment [11]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy clarifies requirements for listed companies regarding market capitalization management and dividend distribution, further supporting the low volatility dividend strategy [11].

今日早盘（25/12/15），市场风格再次转向高股息板块。在市场行情震荡、年末资金倾向于获利了结、 风险偏好整体收敛的背景下，具备相对防御属性的底仓型资产配置价值或凸显。较高股息、较低估值、 业绩确定性较强的红利类资产有望成为资金逆势布局的重要工具。从近期资金动向看，以红利ETF （510880）为代表的部分红利类主题ETF迎来了资金的积极布局。（数据来源：Wind） Wind数据显示，目前市场仅有的跟踪上证红利指数的ETF——红利ETF（510880）连续4个交易日获资 金净流入，累计吸金9.2亿元，是同期全市场仅有的实现资金净流入超7亿元的红利类主题ETF。自2025 年11月17日以来，该ETF已连续4周保持周度资金净流入，推动其规模攀升至181亿元，成为目前市场上 少数规模突破百亿的红利主题ETF之一。 （数据来源：Wind、交易所，数据截至25/12/12，数据区间为25/12/9-25/12/12，4周时间区间为 25/11/17-25/12/12） 在中长期资金加速入市与无风险收益率持续下行的共振下，基本面质地较好、韧性较强的高股息资产或 将持续成为资金关注重点之一。其中，根据基金2025年第三 ...