Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in China's manufacturing PMI in July, the overall economic output remains in the expansion zone, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first decline in four months [1][2]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both still indicating expansion despite slight declines [1]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, including the traditional off-peak season during the flood season and high temperatures [1][2]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - In July, the new orders index for manufacturing fell into the contraction zone, primarily due to short-term factors such as extreme weather conditions [3]. - The new export orders index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, reflecting weakened overall demand due to various factors including previous over-exporting and tariff uncertainties [3]. - Despite weak demand, the production index remains in the expansion zone, indicating resilience in manufacturing activity [3]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index and the factory price index increased to 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, with the purchasing price index rising above the critical point for the first time since March [3]. - The recent "anti-involution" policies are believed to have positively influenced price recovery, although they may cause temporary production slowdowns [4]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI, while showing a decline, remain in the expansion zone, indicating ongoing structural optimization and high-quality development [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises saw a decline to 46.4% [5]. Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises despite overall PMI weakness [5]. - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to positively impact business expectations, although the sustainability of these effects depends on demand recovery [5]. Economic Outlook - The central government emphasizes the need for stable and flexible policies to support economic growth, aiming for a 5.0% growth target for the year [6].

Manufacturing Sector Insights - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - Production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while new orders index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to the contraction zone[2] - New export orders declined by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, influenced by weakened export demand amid global manufacturing slowdowns[2] Price and Inventory Trends - Raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices showed a significant slowdown in contraction due to rising international crude oil prices and domestic price adjustments[2] - Overall inventory levels for raw materials and finished goods continued to decrease, indicating a sustained destocking trend[2] Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3%, while small enterprises' PMI dropped to 46.4%, both down by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a slight recovery, with PMI increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 49.5%[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, remaining above the expansion threshold[3] - The construction sector's index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, impacted by extreme weather conditions affecting construction progress[3] - Service sector index slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, indicating stability at the threshold[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, reflecting a slowdown in economic expansion[3] - Future outlook suggests continued pressure on manufacturing due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions, with potential for further declines in August[3]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].

一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业 PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。 新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 投入品价格指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明非制造业企业用于经营活动的投入品价格总体水平有所上涨。分行业看，建筑业投入品价格指数 为54.5%，比上月上升6.2个百分点；服务业投入品价格指数为49.6%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 销售价格指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明非制造业销售价格总体水平较上月下降。分行业看，建筑业 ...

7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 7月31日，国家统计局发布2025年7月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为50.6%，比上月下降2.2个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。从行业看，铁路运输、航空运 输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间；房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数均低于临界点。 图3 建筑业商务活动指数（经 生产指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.5个百分点 ...

国家统计局赵庆河：受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响 制造业景 气水平较上月回落 金十数据7月31日讯，国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读2025年7月中国采购经理指数， 7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，上月 下降0.4个百分点制造业景气水平较上月回落。7月份，非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别 为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 原材料库存指数为47.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.0%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度略有回升。 供应商配送时间指数为50.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间继续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% | | PMI | | | | | | | --- | ...

Core Insights - In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, indicating a continuous improvement for two months, with the new orders index rising above 50% [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, showing stable expansion, while the comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, reflecting overall economic expansion [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the new orders index rising to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [1][2] - The production index for manufacturing was 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, showing stable expansion in production activities [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, remaining above the expansion threshold [2] - The construction industry showed a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity [2] Overall Economic Indicators - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a positive trend in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [2] - The new export orders index for manufacturing was 47.7%, showing a gradual recovery in exports, with a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - In June, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, indicating a recovery in both sectors [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, with production index at 51% and new orders index at 50.2% [1] - The overall manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilization, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The construction industry saw a significant increase in business activity index to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising investment-related construction activities [2] - The recent stabilization in raw material purchasing prices and finished product sales prices indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector, ending a three-month decline [2] - Despite a decline in business activity indices for sectors related to consumer travel, the market expectation index remains high at 56.0%, suggesting potential recovery in service-related industries as the summer consumption peak approaches [3]