特朗普协议背后，隐藏着三重战略意图：经济牌——通过关税优惠绑定巴基斯坦纺织品出口，压缩美国贸易逆差；围堵牌——在宣布对印度加征25%关税的 同时拉拢巴基斯坦，试图改变南亚力量平衡；去中牌——在中国巨额能源投资的包围圈中打入"楔子"，削弱中国影响力。 然而，巴基斯坦并非任人摆布的棋子。中巴经济走廊（CPEC）已形成价值620亿美元的基础设施网络，如同深入国土的"能源血管"。美巴协议签署后，巴基 斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫立即声明："巴中关系是外交政策的基石"，向中国释放安抚信号。 巴基斯坦能源困局：在中美博弈中寻求光明 巴基斯坦的能源危机已达到临界点，每年为进口油气支付130亿美元，国家财政岌岌可危，全国更是长达六年中断天然气新用户接入，民生困苦。为打破僵 局，巴基斯坦政府祭出猛药：重启天然气新用户接入，但价格完全美元化，并取消补贴，申请者需缴纳十倍押金（4万卢比）且签署苛刻的免责条款。此举 如同将国际油价的波动直接引爆至民生领域，社会风险巨大。能源分析师直言不讳："这等于把国际市场的火药桶埋进百姓厨房！" 然而，就在这危急关头，美国前总统特朗普的一纸声明震撼南亚：美国石油巨头即将进军巴基斯坦，联手开发"巨型油田" ...

Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. aims to disrupt the energy cooperation between China, Russia, and Iran, as these countries account for approximately 30% of China's crude oil imports [3] - The U.S. is using tariffs as a negotiation tool, with a proposed 500% tariff on goods from China if it continues to purchase oil from Russia and Iran, which exceeds WTO rules [3][4] - The U.S. is also attempting to shift China's energy purchases from non-Western countries to U.S.-led high-priced energy sources [3] Group 2: China's Response and Strategic Position - China has diversified its crude oil import sources, covering 15 countries, with over 60% of imports coming from the Middle East, Africa, and South America, making it less reliant on Russian and Iranian oil [4] - China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of deep processing capabilities, which could impact U.S. military technology if trade tensions escalate [4] - The Chinese government has initiated a "trade war emergency plan" with a $50 billion fund to support affected enterprises and is expanding procurement in ASEAN and Middle Eastern markets [9] Group 3: Global Market Implications - The ongoing negotiations have caused significant volatility in global financial markets, with the MSCI global index experiencing notable fluctuations and oil futures rising by 4.5% in a single day [8] - There is a trend of companies like Apple relocating production to countries like India and Vietnam, although these regions face challenges in supply chain efficiency [8] - OPEC+ countries are exploring pricing oil in renminbi, indicating a potential shift away from the "petrodollar" system [8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The U.S. faces internal contradictions, as a 500% tariff could lead to gasoline prices reaching $8 per gallon, potentially increasing inflation and affecting political support for the current administration [8] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has called for a "tariff fluctuation stabilization mechanism," highlighting the need for a multilateral approach to trade disputes [12] - The emphasis on cooperation over confrontation is seen as essential for global economic stability, suggesting that both nations should seek non-zero-sum solutions [12]

Core Points - Turkey submitted a draft energy cooperation agreement to Iraq regarding the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, aiming to establish a mechanism to ensure the pipeline's full utilization [1] - The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, built under a 1970s agreement, once transported oil from the Kurdish region to Turkey, reaching about 0.5% of global oil supply [2] - The pipeline has been inactive, with a designed capacity of nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and has never operated at full capacity [1][2] - Iraq's central government has accused the Kurdish region of unauthorized oil exports, leading to a $1.5 billion arbitration ruling against Turkey for importing oil without central government authorization [2] - Turkey's government announced that the 1973 energy cooperation agreement will expire on July 27, 2026, and is negotiating a new agreement covering oil, gas, petrochemicals, and electricity [3] - A recent agreement between Iraq's central government and the Kurdish region allows oil exports through a government-controlled company, with prepayments of $16 per barrel contingent on a minimum daily volume of 230,000 barrels [5]

土耳其要求伊拉克保障两国间输油管道获"充分使用" 2018年11月，伊拉克中央政府宣布与库区自治政府就重启基尔库克省石油出口达成初步协议。按照该协 议，基尔库克省每天将5万桶至10万桶石油经基尔库克-杰伊汉管道输送至土耳其。 此前，伊拉克中央政府指责库区未经中央政府同意擅自向土方出口石油，并就此向设于法国巴黎的国际 贸易仲裁机构国际商会发起申诉。国际商会2023年裁定支持伊方诉求，要求土耳其就2014年至2018年间 从伊拉克库区进口"未经中央政府授权"石油的行为赔偿伊方15亿美元。土耳其随即中止从基尔库克-杰 伊汉输油管道接收石油，并就上述仲裁结果发起上诉。该管道自此停止运行。 土耳其官方媒体本月21日报道，土政府决定，土伊双方1973年签署的涉及基尔库克-杰伊汉输油管道的 能源合作协议及其后续相关文件将从2026年7月27日起失效。伊拉克石油部官员向本国媒体透露，土方 已向伊拉克政府递交了一份能源合作协议草案，希望重启并扩大两国能源合作，涵盖石油、天然气、石 化产品和电力等领域。伊方正审查该草案内容，同时与土方开展谈判，希望达成对彼此都有利的方案。 伊拉克中央政府一直要求库区自治政府将出口库区原油的控制权 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has reached agreements with multiple Asian countries regarding energy cooperation [1] Group 2 - The agreements are expected to enhance energy trade and investment between the United States and the participating Asian nations [1] - This move is part of a broader strategy to strengthen U.S. energy dominance in the global market [1]

Group 1 - The 9th China-Russia Expo opened in Yekaterinburg, Russia, with over 1,500 Russian government and business representatives participating [1] - The expo features 185 companies with booths and over 300 suppliers and manufacturers showcasing their products, focusing on high-end manufacturing, energy cooperation, and technological innovation [1] - The event serves as a key platform for deepening bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia, with 300 Chinese enterprises from 18 provinces participating [1] Group 2 - Chinese and Russian officials emphasized the importance of utilizing the expo to enhance communication and cooperation, aiming for more substantial outcomes in bilateral economic relations [2] - A series of roundtable meetings and forums will be held under the expo framework, focusing on developing bilateral economic and industrial technology cooperation [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) energy ministerial meeting in Ningbo, China, emphasizes the need for international energy cooperation amid complex global energy dynamics, including climate change and regional crises affecting supply and demand balance [1] - The SCO member states have strong complementarities in traditional energy reserves, renewable energy potential, infrastructure development, and technological innovation, creating a favorable foundation for multilateral cooperation and energy transition [2] - The report titled "New Landscape of Energy Cooperation between China and the SCO" highlights that SCO countries account for over 40% of global crude oil and natural gas production, while China and India are the largest energy consumers with significant future consumption potential [2] Group 2 - The SCO approved the "Energy Cooperation Development Strategy until 2030," providing a guiding framework for mutual cooperation in the energy sector among member states [2] - China has invested in various renewable energy projects in SCO countries, such as a 1 GW solar project in Uzbekistan and a 100 MW wind project in Kazakhstan, showcasing successful energy cooperation examples [3] - The Chinese National Energy Administration expresses a commitment to enhance energy industry cooperation with SCO partners, aiming to contribute to global energy governance and promote high-quality regional development [3]

Core Insights - The forum highlighted the expanding breadth and depth of energy cooperation between China and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries, driven by ongoing energy transition efforts [1][2] Group 1: Energy Trade Dynamics - Energy trade is characterized by "three changes and three constants": slowing oil and gas demand growth, a long-term downward trend in international oil prices, and evolving oil and gas trade patterns while maintaining the importance of trade [1] - The international oil market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply, with long-term downward pressure on oil prices, projected to be between $60-70 per barrel this year and $55-65 per barrel during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] Group 2: Energy Cooperation and Projects - Energy cooperation is foundational for China's collaboration with SCO countries, contributing to economic development and energy security [2] - Chinese enterprises are actively involved in energy projects within SCO countries, including power plant construction and renewable energy initiatives, such as a 1 GW solar project in Uzbekistan [3] Group 3: Strategic Importance of Energy Cooperation - The SCO's energy cooperation is prioritized for achieving green development, emphasizing a balanced approach between traditional fossil fuels and non-fossil energy sources [3] - The forum, themed "Innovation and Integration, Energizing the Future," facilitated discussions among government and enterprise representatives from multiple countries on future energy cooperation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the importance of energy cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to ensure regional energy security and sustainable development amid complex international environments [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Cooperation and Projects - Energy cooperation is strategically significant within the SCO, serving as a foundation for regional collaboration and exemplifying the "Shanghai Spirit" [1]. - The SCO countries, covering about 40% of the global population, have diverse resource endowments that can complement each other in energy production, consumption, and transit [1]. - Numerous high-quality energy cooperation projects, such as the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline and the Yamal LNG project, have been successfully implemented in SCO member countries [1]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Initiatives - Chinese enterprises are leading in energy transition with projects like the 1 GW solar project in Uzbekistan and the 100 MW wind project in Kazakhstan, showcasing successful renewable energy cooperation [2]. - By 2025, SCO's "China Year" activities will include signed renewable energy projects across eight countries, promoting technology sharing in hydrogen energy and electric vehicles [2]. Group 3: Regional Energy Governance - China proposed an energy security cooperation framework at the 2024 SCO summit, aiming to establish a development bank and fund to enhance international rule-making power and oppose trade protectionism [2]. - The current global energy landscape faces significant challenges, including climate risks and increasing green barriers, complicating the stability of global energy supply chains [2]. Group 4: Recommendations for Enhanced Cooperation - Strengthening policy coordination and mechanisms among SCO member states is essential for aligning energy strategies and eliminating trade barriers [3]. - Enhancing technological collaboration in clean energy sectors and establishing a regional certification system for new energy equipment is recommended [3]. - Increasing financial support and fostering talent exchange within the region will help build a robust energy cooperation framework [3]. Group 5: Commitment to High-Quality Development - China expresses willingness to collaborate with SCO partners to transform energy cooperation into a new engine for regional high-quality development, contributing to global energy governance [4].

2025年6月26日至27日，国家能源局与浙江省人民政府将在浙江省宁波市联合举办上海合作组织能源部 长会议及配套活动。大会以"创新融合，能动未来"为主题，旨在充分利用主席国契机，凝聚各方共识， 推动上合组织框架下能源合作向更高质量、更深层次发展！ （来源：中国电力报） ...