2025.04. 12 当地时间11日，WTO首席经济学家奥萨（Ralph Ossa）发表长篇文章对关税进行解释，并对关税同 通胀、汇率以及贸易失衡之间的关系一一作答。 "关税的核心很简单：提高进口商品的国内价格。但关税的影响会以复杂的方式波及整个经济——改 变价格、工资、汇率和贸易模式。当各国政府重新审视这一强有力的杠杆时，了解其中的经济机制就 显得尤为重要。"奥萨表示。 他表示，"在关税重回贸易政策议程之际，在经济学中，关税不仅仅是增加收入或保护国内产业的工 具，它还是一种政策杠杆，具有广泛的、往往是意想不到的后果。" 奥萨称，"它们在短期内的吸引力可能会掩盖其对通货膨胀、竞争力和国际合作造成的长期代价。在 贸易紧张局势日益加剧的今天，清醒地看待这些利弊得失比以往任何时候都更加重要。" 近期，世贸组织（WTO）发布声明称，最近（美方）一系列政策宣布将对全球贸易和经济增长前景 产生重大影响。WTO初步分析表明，"目前的措施，加上今年年初以来出台的措施，可能导致今年全 球商品贸易量整体萎缩约1%，较之前预测下调近四个百分点。" 本文字数：2267，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ：当前一个热门问题是关税是否会影响贸 ...

Group 1 - The core issue of the meeting between Modi and Trump was tariffs, with Modi concerned about potential trade actions from the Trump administration that could affect India [3][5] - Modi expressed his intention to deepen cooperation with the U.S. across multiple sectors during his visit [3][9] - Trump emphasized the need for a reciprocal trade relationship, highlighting India's high tariffs that hinder U.S. exports [5][7] Group 2 - Following the meeting, Trump noted that the U.S. trade deficit with India is close to $100 billion, and Modi agreed to initiate negotiations to address this imbalance [9][10] - The proposed solutions include increased U.S. exports of oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas to India, as well as enhanced military sales [10][12] - Modi aims to reach a bilateral trade target of $500 billion by 2030, indicating a significant increase in trade relations [12][14] Group 3 - The meeting resulted in Modi largely accommodating Trump's trade demands, raising questions about India's national interests versus U.S. interests [14][16] - The potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to India is still in the proposal stage, with formal negotiations yet to begin [16][18] - The acquisition of advanced military equipment like the F-35 may enhance India's perceived military strength but raises concerns about the lack of a robust domestic military-industrial base [20][21]