据南宁日报消息，南宁市2025年生产总值6212.46亿元，比上年（下同）增长4.7%，成为广西首个GDP跨越6000亿元的城市。南宁市在"十四五"期间地区 生产总值连续突破5000亿元、6000亿元大关，首府经济综合实力和辐射带动能级迈上了新台阶。 这一数字背后，不仅是经济总量的跃升，更折射出南宁市经济发展格局的深层变迁，呈现出"贡献大、动力足、上台阶"的鲜明特点。一是贡献大，2025年 全市GDP增长对全区贡献率达19%，规模以上工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额、外贸进出口等关键指标增速均高于全区平均水平，发挥出了经济大市挑 大梁、打头阵的作用。 二是动力足，三次产业结构持续优化。一产占比10.6%，农林牧渔业总产值居全区首位；二产占比19.3%，工业增加值突破900亿元；三产占比70.1%，新 业态新模式不断发展壮大。三是上台阶，全市发展基础、产业培育、科技创新等要素积累实现新提升，为迈向更高发展层次构筑坚实支撑。 解读：从总量上看，2025年，南宁GDP 6212.46亿元，成为广西首个GDP跨越6000亿元的城市。把时间线拉长，过去20年，南宁连续跨过了6个千亿级台 阶，特别是在"十四五"期间，南宁接 ...

近期，各省（区、直辖市，下称"省份"）陆续公布2026年经济社会发展目标和重点任务。据经济观察报 梳理，相比于2025年GDP增速目标，经济大省（通常指GDP总量排行前十的省份）大面积下调了2026年 GDP增速目标。 如表一，截至2月3日，10个经济大省均已公布2026年增速目标，其中6个经济大省直接下调增速目标数 值；剩余4个经济大省中，山东、上海的增长目标与2025年持平，江苏由"5%以上"调整为"5%"，四川 由"5.5%以上"调整为"5.5%左右"。而2025年，只有3个经济大省下调了GDP增速目标。 值得注意的是，下调2026年GDP增速目标的6个经济大省（广东、浙江、河南、湖北、福建、湖南）， 都不约而同地提及"在实际工作中全力争取更好结果"。 与增速目标下调相对应的是，前几年经济大省未完成GDP增速目标的现象屡有出现。2023—2025年，未 能实现增速目标的经济大省分别为6个、4个、3个。其中，广东、湖北、湖南过去三年GDP增速均未达 预期，河南则在2020—2024年间连续5年未能完成GDP增速目标。 2025年11月举行的中央经济工作会议提出，要坚持积极务实的目标导向，着力解决存在的困难 ...

行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

摘要 行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

让外企愿意来、留得住、发展好，各地都在加紧布置落实。上海出台二十条措施，鼓励外商投资企业境 内再投资；北京将用好中国国际服务贸易交易会、中关村论坛、金融街论坛、北京文化论坛等开放平 台，吸引更多优质外资项目落地；广西南宁打造南A东盟谷，逾20个项目集中签约……在持续发展、市 场开放的中国，外企必须拿出看家本领才能站稳脚跟。 如今，外企来华的"老故事"不断上演"新剧情"：布局方向变了，盯着高技术产业深耕；投资心态变了， 不再只简单开厂生产。但故事的逻辑始终不变——与中国同行就是与机遇同行，投资中国就是投资未 来。（中国经济网评论员 子房先生） 真金白银的流向是风向标。比如，服务业实际使用外资5451.2亿元，占了总额的大头。这印证了我国超 大规模市场优势——14亿多人口、4亿多中等收入群体，蕴含消费升级的巨大潜力，为外资投资兴业、 抢占先机提供了"黄金赛道"。又如，制造业实际使用外资1855.1亿元。我国拥有全球最完整的工业门类 与供应链网络，从基础材料到精密部件，从研发试制到规模生产，全链条都能配套。产业互补是合作的 基础，我国市场的创新生态和速度优势，让中外合作的绑定更紧密。 更值得关注的是，"明星赛道"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus is driven by global market demand and is providing tangible benefits to economies around the world [1] Group 1: Impact on Developing Countries and Emerging Economies - Developing countries and emerging economies benefit from the expansion of Chinese exports, which provide essential products for infrastructure development and energy transition [1] - A significant portion of Chinese exports consists of intermediate goods, which help African regions reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, allowing deeper integration into global value chains [1] - A report from the International Monetary Fund indicates that Chinese investment has significantly increased local processing rates in African countries, promoting their industrialization [1] Group 2: Benefits to Developed Economies - Western developed economies also benefit from Chinese exports, as multinational companies are deeply embedded in the Chinese manufacturing system, using China as a production base for global markets [2] - Foreign enterprises in China account for nearly one-third of China's total exports, providing consumers worldwide with higher cost-performance products [2] Group 3: China's Economic Adjustments - China is actively adjusting its economic structure to enhance domestic demand's role in economic development [2] - The country's large population and growing middle-income group present significant consumption potential, representing one of the most important growth opportunities globally [2]

为确保实现经济两位数增长，该部提出如下重点战略措施。第一，稳定宏观经济大盘，提高经济韧性和 战略自主能力，从而为短期和长期的快速、可持续增长奠定基础。在继续大力推动传统增长动力同时， 培育和有效挖掘新增长动力。第二，加快经济结构调整与工业化、现代化相结合，以科技、创新和数字 化转型为主要动力；发展数字、数据、绿色和循环经济；有效开发海洋、低空、太空和地下等新发展空 间；发挥各经济主体，特别是私营经济作用；提高国有经济效益；发展集体经济；按照新标准吸引和有 效利用外国投资；发挥增长极、经济走廊和动力区作用。第三，更有效开拓国际市场，实现市场多元 化，同时将国内市场发展为增长的持久动力。重点是重构出口战略，从价格竞争转向基于品牌、高标准 及高技术含量和高附加值产品竞争；有效利用自贸协定和新兴市场。第四，动员和有效利用各种资源， 特别是公共、国内私人和外商直接投资资本；发展资本市场，鼓励发展风险投资基金、金融科技模式； 选择性吸引外商直接投资，优先引进高科技和节能技术。第五，大力推进经济体制、人力资源、科技、 创新创意和基础设施领域突破，为快速、可持续发展奠定坚实基础。 阮强调，上述措施需同步且有针对性实施，着力破 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in direct financing in Shenzhen, with the total social financing scale exceeding 630 billion yuan in 2025, marking an increase of over 150 billion yuan year-on-year, and direct financing accounting for approximately 40% of the total, reaching a historical high [2][3] - The rise in direct financing is supported by corporate and government bonds, with the "Technology Board" for corporate bonds contributing significantly to this growth, particularly in the issuance of technology innovation bonds [2][3] - Since the establishment of the "Technology Board" in May 2025, Shenzhen's non-financial enterprises have issued a total of 44.15 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds in the interbank market, ranking second among cities nationwide [2] Group 2 - In addition to the interbank market, the issuance of technology innovation bonds by Shenzhen enterprises in the exchange market has also increased, with a total of 112 bonds worth 130.94 billion yuan as of October 2025 [3] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has achieved full coverage among technology enterprises, venture capital institutions, and financial institutions, with a notable increase in participation from private enterprises [3] - The trend of increasing direct financing in Shenzhen aligns with national social financing data, where direct financing reached 16.7 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for 46.9% of the total, marking a significant shift in financing structure [3][4]

Economic Growth - In 2025, GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, aligning with the initial economic growth target set at the beginning of the year[8] - In Q4 2025, GDP reached 387,911 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3 and 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024[19] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.9%[22] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous period[11] - Social retail sales in December 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 3.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2024[34] - The per capita disposable income of residents in 2025 increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a downward trend in income growth[34] Trade and Inflation - In December 2025, total exports amounted to 357.78 billion USD, increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, while imports reached 243.64 billion USD, up by 5.7%[42] - The trade surplus in December 2025 was 114.14 billion USD, indicating a recovery in bilateral trade with Europe[42] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9%[55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant changes in China's financial structure, emphasizing the shift from indirect financing to direct financing, driven by policy initiatives and evolving economic needs [2][4]. Group 1: Financing Trends - The proportion of indirect financing in social financing has decreased, with direct financing's share increasing, marking a historical shift where indirect financing's share fell below 50% for the first time [3]. - As of November 2025, indirect financing accounted for 45.7% while direct financing reached 47.4%, indicating a notable trend where direct financing is outpacing indirect financing [3]. - The growth rate of credit has significantly declined, with the credit balance growth dropping from 12.8% in 2020 to 6.4% in 2025, reflecting a substantial decrease in credit demand [3][4]. Group 2: Direct Financing Growth - Direct financing has shown robust growth, supported by a more market-oriented allocation of funds and the development of multi-tiered capital markets, including platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [4][5]. - The demand for direct financing is increasingly driven by high-tech industries and emerging sectors, which require various forms of direct financing such as equity investments and corporate bond issuances [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article predicts that active fiscal policies will continue, with a focus on maintaining moderate fiscal expansion to support market stability amid global uncertainties [6]. - Traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure are expected to stabilize and improve gradually, but their financing needs will not return to previous levels, with credit growth projected to remain below 7% [6][9]. - The capital market is anticipated to develop positively, with a growing demand for stocks driven by high-tech industry listings and unprecedented policy support for investor protection [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Implications - The ongoing shift towards direct financing is expected to optimize China's financial structure, with direct financing potentially exceeding indirect financing in the near future [8][10]. - This transition is projected to lower financing costs, reduce corporate debt burdens, and enhance the efficiency of capital allocation, ultimately supporting high-quality economic development [9][10].