2025年即将收尾，也是"十四五"规划的收官之年。今年前三季度中国经济增长5.2%，预计能完成全年5%左右的经济增 长目标。 尽管看起来经济增长有条不紊、波澜不惊，但在科技主题的宏观叙事下以及中美贸易摩擦的背景下，中国的经济结构 和政策环境发生了显著变化，房地产开发投资占GDP比重继续下滑至6.7%，比去年下降0.7个百分点，比2020年下降7 个百分点，体现了这五年经济对地产的依赖明显下降；另一方面，制造业投资保持一定增速，特别是以光伏、新能源 和电子为代表的新兴行业投资和出口保持较快增速。 这在资本市场上也形成了映射，体现为：今年A股估值修复以及科技板块领涨，而传统消费、煤炭和石化能源板块表 现一般。 从前三季度"三驾马车"对经济的贡献看，今年消费、资本形成总额和净出口分别贡献53.5%、17.5%和29.0%。 消费对经济的贡献超过一半，贡献率比去年多出9个百分点，消费包括居民消费和政府消费，其中代表居民消费的社 会消费品零售总额同比增长4.5%，比去年高出1个百分点；政府支出方面，一般公共预算支出增长3.1%，基金预算支 出增长23.9%，增速较高。 资本形成总额主要包括固定资产投资和存货变动，今年固 ...

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value significantly dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%[1] - Fixed asset investment accelerated its decline to -11.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment showing the most notable decrease[1] - The overall economic growth structure is undergoing profound adjustments, moving away from reliance on scale expansion[1] Consumer Resilience - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in total retail sales of consumer goods, the consumption growth rate excluding automobiles actually rebounded[1] - Restaurant revenue growth accelerated significantly, with service retail sales climbing to 6.1% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year[1] - Consumer demand remains robust, playing a crucial role in combating deflation and driving price recovery[1] Policy Outlook - Future policies are expected to continue the approach of "braking old vehicles and accelerating new ones," focusing on suppressing inefficient production while expanding consumer demand[2] - Measures will include improving social security, stabilizing employment, and fostering new consumption scenarios to enhance residents' purchasing power and willingness to consume[2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in government spending from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," aiming to stimulate consumption and facilitate a positive economic cycle[1] - Infrastructure investment growth has significantly decreased, contrasting with the clear rise in service consumption growth[1]

全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.6%……10月份我国主要经济 指标最新出炉。 当前经济运行呈现哪些特点？全年经济发展预期目标能否顺利实现？在国新办11月14日举行的新闻发布 会上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍了相关情况。 国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进 付凌晖介绍，10月份我国生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动能培育壮大，国民经 济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业看，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。服务业增势平稳，国庆和中秋假期叠加带动下，住 宿和餐饮业生产指数同比增长3.9%，比上月加快2.6个百分点。 市场销售持续扩大。10月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，消费品以旧换新相关商品销售保持较 快增长。1至10月份，服务零售额同比增长5.3%。 1至10月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降1.7%。 实现全年预期目标具备较多有利条件 从就业和物价看，10月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。10月份，全国居民消 费价格指数（CP ...

新华社北京11月14日电 题：10月份主要指标出炉，如何看待当前经济运行态势？ 新华社记者王雨萧、黄垚 全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.6%……10月份我国主要 经济指标最新出炉。 当前经济运行呈现哪些特点？全年经济发展预期目标能否顺利实现？在国新办11月14日举行的新闻 发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍了相关情况。 付凌晖表示，总的来看，10月份国民经济运行总体平稳，也要看到，外部环境不稳定不确定因素较 多，国内结构调整压力较大，经济平稳运行面临不少挑战。 转型升级扎实推进 新动能继续壮大 从多项数据指标看，今年以来我国推进经济结构调整、加快培育新动能继续取得积极成效。 国民经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进 付凌晖介绍，10月份我国生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动能培育壮大，国 民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 生产供给继续增长。从农业看，秋粮面积稳中有增，单产持续提高，全年粮食丰收在望。从工业 看，规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，保持总体稳定。服务业增势平稳，国庆和中秋假期叠加带动 下，住宿和餐饮业生产指数同比增长3.9%，比上月加快2. ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 麦克勒姆说，随着经济适应美国的关税，经济增长将继续不温不热，美国的关税正在挤压钢铁、铝和制 造业等关键行业。"这是一次结构调整，各行业需要转向，他们需要投资新事物。他们会减少做一些事 情。他们需要做更多的其他事情，这需要时间。" 新华财经北京11月6日电加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆表示，经济要恢复到更快的增长速度，"需要比平时更 长的时间"。加拿大央行预计今年的经济增长率为1.1%，2026年为1.2%，2027年为1.6%。 ...

Core Points - The Vietnamese government aims for a GDP growth of over 10% and a per capita GDP of $5,400 to $5,500 by 2026, with an average CPI increase of around 4.5% and a reduction in poverty rates by approximately 1% to 1.5% [1][2] Group 1: Economic Goals - The report outlines 15 key indicators for economic and social development, including a target GDP growth rate of over 10% and a per capita GDP between $5,400 and $5,500 [1] - The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by about 4.5%, while labor productivity is expected to increase by around 8% [1] Group 2: Major Tasks and Measures - The government will prioritize growth, maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, and ensure budget balance, with public debt and budget deficits kept within specified limits [2] - There will be a focus on industrialization, modernization, and economic restructuring [2] - Strategic infrastructure projects will be prioritized, including the development of railways, highways, and international airports, as well as investments in 5G and semiconductor manufacturing [2] - Emphasis will be placed on high-quality talent development and cultural advancement to improve living standards [2] - The government will actively address climate change, enhance resource management, and strengthen national defense and security [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Metal Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Conditions on October 20 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Trading Volume**: RB2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton with a -0.03% change, trading 1,232,540 lots; HC2601 closed at 3215 yuan/ton with a -0.12% change, trading 539,570 lots; SS2512 closed at 12595 yuan/ton with a -0.16% change, trading 124,780 lots [5] - **Position Changes**: RB2601's open interest increased by 1,609 lots; HC2601's increased by 7,152 lots [5] - **Fund Flows**: RB2601 had a 0.15 - billion - yuan inflow; HC2601 had a 0.28 - billion - yuan inflow [5] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: Some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices declined. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Hefei dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Zhengzhou dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - Rebar 2601 contract's daily KDJ indicator showed a golden cross, and hot - rolled coil 2601's was close to a golden cross. Both contracts' daily MACD green bars narrowed [8] 4. Market Outlook 4.1 News and Policy - Trump's attitude towards China - US trade tariffs softened, which eased market concerns. He will meet with China in about two weeks and is optimistic about the negotiation. The US Treasury Secretary also said the meeting may lead to a broader trade agreement [9][10] 4.2 Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: In the past 6 weeks, the weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly but remained high; weekly demand rebounded from the lowest since late February but was lower than the end - September level; social inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly from the highest since mid - April [10] - **Raw Materials**: In the past 2 weeks, iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills and imported sintered powder ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills dropped significantly; in the past 4 weeks, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 2.2% on top of a 3.7% increase in the previous 4 weeks, and arrivals increased by 11.9% after a 1.4% decrease in the previous 4 weeks; coke profit was briefly positive and then turned negative, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1; steel mills reduced coke inventories after the holiday; coking coal prices remained firm [11] 4.3 Forecast - Steel demand has seasonal improvement, but trade conflicts remain uncertain. Steel futures prices are expected to be more volatile, with a possible first - decline - then - rebound trend. Attention should be paid to market expectations before China - US trade negotiations, raw material prices after most steel mills' profits turn negative, and the impact of low temperatures on terminal demand [11] 5. Industry News - **Economic Growth**: The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the Q3 GDP growth slowdown to international trade protectionism and domestic economic structural adjustment [12] - **Policy Adjustment**: The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and nuclear power [13] - **Production Data**: From January to September 2025, national coke production was 377.16 million tons (up 3.5% YoY), pig iron production was 645.86 million tons (down 1.1% YoY), crude steel production was 746.25 million tons (down 2.9% YoY), and steel production was 1.10385 billion tons (up 5.4% YoY). In September, national coal production was 411.51 million tons (down 1.8% YoY), and industrial power generation was 826.2 billion kWh (up 1.5% YoY) [13] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan (down 13.9% YoY), construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters (down 9.4% YoY), new commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters (down 5.5% YoY), and sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan (down 7.9% YoY) [13] - **Railway Transport**: In the first three quarters of 2025, national railway freight volume was 3.912 billion tons (up 2.8% YoY) [14] - **Corporate Performance**: Baotou Steel's semi - annual asset - liability ratio in 2025 decreased by 0.42 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and financial expenses decreased by 6.29% YoY [14] - **International Trade**: In September 2025, China exported 6.4 million tons of steel plates (down 6.1% YoY) and 1.68 million tons of steel bars (up 25.0% YoY). In September, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 48.5673 million tons (down 0.48% YoY, up 9.58% MoM) [14] 6. Data Overview - The report presents various steel - related data charts, including prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [16][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the steady progress of China's economy as reflected in the third quarter reports, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year and a resilient economic structure amid external challenges [3][4][9]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a total economic increment of 39,679 billion yuan, which is 1,368 billion yuan more than the previous year [4][9]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% [4][9]. - The total import and export volume reached a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the third quarter [10]. High-Quality Development - The proportion of value added from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing reached 16.7% and 35.9%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [5]. - Non-fossil energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points, reflecting progress in green and low-carbon transformation [5]. Economic Resilience - Despite external pressures and domestic demand challenges, China's economy grew by 5.2%, showcasing its resilience compared to other major economies [5][10]. - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating improved supplier delivery times [8][10]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has stabilized the economy and provided support for long-term growth [6][11]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds were allocated to stimulate consumer demand, contributing to a 53.5% growth rate in final consumption expenditure [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter's GDP growth of 4.8% remains higher than most major economies, with favorable conditions for achieving annual targets [9][10]. - Positive indicators, such as rising industrial product prices and increased consumer activity during holidays, suggest ongoing economic vitality [10].

此外，主要实物量指标也保持稳定增长。前三季度，规模以上工业发电量同比增长1.6%，货物周转 量、旅客周转量分别增长4.8%、4.4%。 ——高质量发展扎实推进的态势没有改变。 10月20日，国家统计局发布2025年前三季度国民经济运行情况。数据显示，前三季度，国内生产总值 （GDP）同比增长5.2%，其中三季度GDP同比增长4.8%。从环比看，经季节因素调整后，三季度GDP 环比增长1.1%，比二季度回升0.1个百分点。经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 "稳"的格局、"进"的势头、"韧"的特性没有改变 如何评价前三季度经济运行总体表现？国家统计局新闻发言人从三方面进行了解读。 ——经济平稳运行的主基调没有改变。 从经济增长看，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，比上年全年和上年同期分别加快0.2个百分点、0.4个百分 点；经济增量达到39679亿元，同比多增1368亿元。 从就业物价看，前三季度，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%，与上半年持平；居民消费价格指数 （CPI）同比略降0.1%，但扣除食品和能源的核心CPI上涨0.6%，其中9月份上涨1.0%，涨幅连续5个月 扩大。 从国际收支看，外贸展现 ...

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline in growth rate from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3 [3][5] - The slowdown in GDP growth is attributed to weakening consumption, investment, and real estate market data [3][5] Consumption and Investment Trends - From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,658.77 billion yuan, increasing by 4.5%, a decline from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth this year, with significant declines in real estate investment by 13.9% [3][19] - Private fixed asset investment also saw a decline of 3.1%, reflecting ongoing issues with private sector confidence [19][20] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.2% year-on-year from January to September, with a slight increase to 6.5% in September compared to August [4] - The construction activity index for the building industry remained below the threshold, indicating weak growth in investment-related activities [14] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% from January to September, with new construction areas declining significantly [18] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [18] Policy Outlook - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for policy intervention, with expectations for increased fiscal and monetary support to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy [21][22] - Recommendations include enhancing consumer demand through various policies, supporting the real estate market, and maintaining a stable monetary policy [22][23]