Core Insights - In 2025, domestic tourism consumption in China experienced an unexpected trend where major economic hubs like Beijing and Shanghai saw a decline in tourism spending, while less developed regions such as Northeast (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning), Northwest (Gansu, Qinghai), and Southwest (Yunnan, Guizhou) exhibited a surge in tourism consumption [3][4][6]. - Traditional government measures to stimulate tourism, such as consumption vouchers and free admission, have become less effective, leading to the rise of new strategies like seasonal holidays and local intangible cultural heritage events to boost tourism [26][28][32]. Group 1: Consumption Patterns - A report categorized provinces into four consumption types based on per capita income and consumption rates, revealing that Beijing and Shanghai fall into the "cautious consumption" category, contrary to expectations [5][6]. - Residents in economically weaker regions like Northeast China are more willing to spend on tourism due to lower living costs and stable incomes, leading to increased tourism activity [11][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The trend of tourists opting for camping over hotel stays during peak seasons highlights a shift towards seeking high cost-performance experiences in tourism [14][15]. - The K-shaped differentiation in tourism consumption indicates a split where some consumers prioritize high emotional value experiences, while others focus on high cost-performance, emphasizing value for money [16][18]. Group 3: New Stimulus Measures - The effectiveness of traditional tourism stimulus measures has diminished, prompting the introduction of new strategies such as school autumn breaks and government-led cultural festivals to stimulate local tourism [26][28]. - The introduction of school autumn breaks in cities like Sichuan and Guangdong has unexpectedly boosted local tourism, creating a new peak travel period [28][30]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The shift in tourism consumption patterns presents new opportunities for businesses, particularly in less developed regions where tourism infrastructure is evolving [35][36]. - The anticipated rise of government-led cultural festivals and new public holidays is expected to further stimulate tourism consumption in 2026, with a focus on creative and low-barrier events [36][37].

扩容，核心在开拓更多就业空间。大力发展数字经济、绿色经济、银发经济等新业态新模式，培育 壮大新的就业增长点。充分发挥服务业作为吸纳就业"蓄水池"的作用，加大对建筑、住宿餐饮等劳动密 集型行业的政策支持。加大对就业容量大的民营企业、中小微企业和个体工商户的支持力度，激发民间 投资活力，增强就业带动作用。我国灵活就业人员规模已超过2亿人，灵活就业和新就业形态已成为就 业增收的重要渠道。据了解，我国将抓紧出台新就业形态劳动者权益保障办法，灵活就业和新就业形态 劳动者权益保障制度将得到进一步完善。 提质，重点在提升就业质量。应对结构性矛盾，根本出路是使人力资本结构与产业升级方向同频共 振，从破解"有活没人干"入手，解决"有人没活干"的问题。这要求职业教育和技能培训体系进行深刻改 革，更加紧密地对接产业前沿和市场需求，缩短学用落差。同时，健全终身职业技能培训制度，支持企 业在岗培训，帮助存量劳动力实现技能升级和转型。优化公共就业服务，运用大数据等技术提高人岗匹 配效率，精准帮扶重点群体就业。 稳岗、扩容、提质，三者环环相扣。稳岗是基础，保住存量；扩容是关键，做大增量；提质是方 向，提升质量。明年的就业压力总体可能还将上 ...

如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要 期待政策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济 工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨周期，推动投 资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定具体的 增速底线。 作者：田进 封图：图虫创意 12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降 2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速 下滑的态势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固 投增速预计将为负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续6个 月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规 模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作 用，有效激发民间投资活力 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive macro policies to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, aiming for qualitative and quantitative economic growth in 2026 [1][2] - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with a goal to build a strong domestic market, addressing the current issue of insufficient effective demand, as consumer spending in 2023 accounted for only 39.57% of GDP, significantly lower than global and regional averages [2] - The conference highlights the importance of innovation-driven growth, aiming to cultivate new economic drivers, with a focus on sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology to enhance productivity and address structural challenges [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is set to be more proactive, with a focus on quality and efficiency, indicating confidence in the resilience of the domestic economy and a reduced need for extraordinary stimulus measures [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a certain degree of expansion, with a projected fiscal deficit rate between 3.5% and 4% for 2026, emphasizing the integration of existing and new policies to enhance economic governance [5] - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [6] Group 3 - The real estate sector is shifting from being an economic engine to a cornerstone of people's livelihoods, with policies aimed at promoting quality housing and new development models [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by ongoing reforms in investment and financing, contributing to wealth preservation and economic transformation [8]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is experiencing a temporary turbulence amidst a complex global economic environment, with the composite PMI output index dropping to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a new low in nearly a year. However, this decline reflects a structural adjustment and accumulation of strength rather than a comprehensive economic downturn [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector shows resilience with a PMI of 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a glimmer of hope amidst overall economic pressure [2]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) demonstrate strong vitality, with the PMI for medium-sized enterprises rising by 0.2 percentage points and small enterprises surging by 2.0 percentage points, highlighting the robust resilience of the grassroots economy [2]. - The production index has returned to the critical point of 50.0%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating overall stability in manufacturing production [3]. - The new orders index has improved to 49.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a gradual recovery in market demand and an increase in enterprise orders [3]. - The employment index has slightly risen, indicating an improvement in the employment situation within manufacturing, providing a human resource guarantee for stable production [3]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, becoming a major drag on the composite index, yet it reflects significant industry differentiation rather than a complete downturn [4]. - The service sector experiences short-term volatility, with real estate and residential services remaining at low levels, while sectors like railway transportation, finance, and telecommunications maintain high prosperity levels, illustrating a mixed performance [4]. - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization and recovery, with an increase in the new orders index indicating a growing demand for construction projects [4]. - Changes in input prices and sales prices in the construction sector reflect proactive responses to cost control and price adjustments, enhancing profitability and market competitiveness [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite the temporary decline in the composite index, the fundamentals of China's economy remain solid, with stable manufacturing production, revitalized SMEs, and a high expectation level of 56.2% among non-manufacturing enterprises for the future [5]. - The current data drop is viewed as a short-term adjustment rather than a trend of decline, suggesting that the economy is seeking balance in a more nuanced and stable manner [5]. - The ongoing transformation and upgrading of the economy may be filled with challenges, but each step is directed towards a healthier and more sustainable direction [5].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments has surged significantly in November, providing strong financial support for project construction and contributing to economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - As of November 30, the issuance of new special bonds reached approximately 492.19 billion yuan in November, a 71% increase from October's 287.36 billion yuan [1]. - The overall pace of special bond issuance has accelerated throughout the year, with 9.60 billion yuan issued in Q1, 120.04 billion yuan in Q2, and 151.66 billion yuan in Q3, completing 83.6% of the annual target of 4.4 trillion yuan [1]. Group 2: Characteristics of Bond Issuance - The issuance and allocation of special bonds this year exhibit three main characteristics: expanded scale, optimized rhythm, and innovative allocation, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The acceleration and expansion of special bond issuance send positive signals to the market, enhancing confidence in economic development and stabilizing market expectations [2]. Group 3: Allocation of Special Bonds - Special bonds continue to be directed towards traditional infrastructure projects, such as municipal and industrial park infrastructure and transportation, which are crucial for improving the infrastructure system and public service levels [2]. - There has been a notable increase in the issuance of land reserve special bonds, totaling approximately 503 billion yuan, which helps alleviate local government debt pressure and stabilize the real estate market [3]. - The allocation of special bonds has also shifted towards government investment funds, increasing support for technological innovation and future industries, indicating a structural change in the use of special bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, with a 5.2% growth rate recorded in the first three quarters, despite significant structural changes and challenges such as the US-China trade tensions [1][2]. Economic Contributions - The "three drivers" of the economy—consumption, capital formation, and net exports—contributed 53.5%, 17.5%, and 29.0% respectively to economic growth, with consumption showing a notable increase of 9 percentage points compared to last year [2][3]. - Social retail sales increased by 4.5% year-on-year, while government spending saw a growth of 3.1% in general public budget and 23.9% in fund budget [2]. Investment Trends - Investment growth has declined to -0.5%, marking the first negative growth since records began, with real estate investment down by 13.9% year-on-year [5][6]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%, but showed signs of slowing down after the introduction of the "anti-involution" policy [6] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 3.3%, influenced by the ongoing real estate downturn and reduced land finance [6]. Export Performance - Exports grew by 6.1% in the first three quarters, surpassing last year's growth, with net exports contributing 29.0% to GDP growth [3][9]. - ASEAN has become the largest export market for China, with a 15.8% year-on-year increase, while exports to the US fell by 27% [9]. Price Levels and Market Reflection - The CPI decreased by 0.3% in September, primarily due to falling pork prices, while the core CPI rose by 1% [10]. - The PPI declined by 2.3% but is expected to improve gradually, which could enhance corporate profitability and consumer spending [10]. Capital Market Dynamics - A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 3350 to around 4000 points, an 18% increase [11][12]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates has made equity investments more attractive, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [12]. - Corporate profits have rebounded, with a 5.34% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed companies in the first three quarters [12]. Sector Performance - The best-performing sectors include non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics, driven by rising gold prices and advancements in AI and digital economy [13]. - Conversely, sectors such as consumer goods, coal, and petrochemicals have underperformed [13]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization in the upcoming phases of the 14th Five-Year Plan [14].

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value significantly dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%[1] - Fixed asset investment accelerated its decline to -11.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment showing the most notable decrease[1] - The overall economic growth structure is undergoing profound adjustments, moving away from reliance on scale expansion[1] Consumer Resilience - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in total retail sales of consumer goods, the consumption growth rate excluding automobiles actually rebounded[1] - Restaurant revenue growth accelerated significantly, with service retail sales climbing to 6.1% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year[1] - Consumer demand remains robust, playing a crucial role in combating deflation and driving price recovery[1] Policy Outlook - Future policies are expected to continue the approach of "braking old vehicles and accelerating new ones," focusing on suppressing inefficient production while expanding consumer demand[2] - Measures will include improving social security, stabilizing employment, and fostering new consumption scenarios to enhance residents' purchasing power and willingness to consume[2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in government spending from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," aiming to stimulate consumption and facilitate a positive economic cycle[1] - Infrastructure investment growth has significantly decreased, contrasting with the clear rise in service consumption growth[1]

Economic Overview - The national industrial added value for October increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress observed in various sectors [2][3] Production and Supply - Agricultural production is stable, with an increase in autumn grain area and continuous improvement in yield, indicating a promising harvest for the year [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, maintaining overall stability [2] - The service industry showed steady growth, with accommodation and catering production index increasing by 3.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Market Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with significant growth in sales related to the replacement of old consumer goods [2] - From January to October, the retail sales in the service sector grew by 5.3% year-on-year [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, but when excluding price factors, there was a slight increase in the physical workload of investments [2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.6% of total investment [2] Trade Performance - The total import and export value in October increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a slowdown in growth due to a high base from the previous year [2] Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October [3] Structural Adjustments and New Momentum - The economy is undergoing structural adjustments, with new consumption patterns and digital, green, and intelligent products gaining traction [4] - From January to October, online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Investment in high-tech sectors showed rapid growth, with aerospace and information services investments increasing by 19.7% and 32.7% year-on-year, respectively [4] Future Outlook - The economic structure adjustment is progressing steadily, with new momentum continuing to grow, indicating a positive trend for high-quality economic development [5] - Despite facing risks and challenges, favorable conditions for achieving annual economic targets remain intact [6] - Recent policies, including a new 500 billion yuan financial tool, aim to enhance local government financial capacity and stimulate effective investment [7]

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance [1][2]. Production and Supply - Agricultural production remains stable with an increase in autumn grain area and yield, suggesting a promising harvest for the year [2]. - The accommodation and catering industry saw a production index growth of 3.9% year-on-year, accelerated by the overlap of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2]. Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales related to the replacement of old consumer goods [2]. - From January to October, the retail sales of services increased by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, but the actual workload of investment showed slight growth when excluding price factors [3]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.6% of total investment [3]. Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October [3]. Structural Adjustments and New Growth Drivers - The economy is undergoing structural adjustments with significant growth in new driving forces, including a 19.7% year-on-year increase in investment in the aerospace and aviation equipment manufacturing sector [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales, reflecting the expansion of new consumption formats [4]. Emerging Industries - The added value of the digital industry manufacturing sector increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components growing by 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively [5]. Economic Outlook - Despite facing risks and challenges, the long-term supportive conditions for economic growth remain unchanged, with a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [6]. - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, placing it among the top global economies [6]. Policy Measures - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, is expected to enhance economic momentum [7].