每经AI快讯，10月3日，美国天然气跌3%，最新报3.339美元/百万英热。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

高盛认为，美国机构信誉风险上升以及商品供应集中度加剧创造了"尾部风险"，投资者应考虑将商品纳入投资组合以实现分散化配置，黄金被列 为大宗商品领域"最坚定推荐"的投资标的，维持2026年中期4000美元的目标价不变，极端情况下可能升至4500美元以上。三大结构性趋势（能 源去风险化、国防支出增加、央行去美元化）正系统性收紧商品供需，支撑中长期牛市前景。 面对美联储独立性风险、供应链集中等因素影响，高盛指出，大宗商品，特别是黄金，正成为对冲传统资产风险的关键工具。 9月5日，高盛在最新的大宗商品策略研究报告中称，虽然基准情景下商品指数未来12个月回报预期温和，但 投资者应考虑将商品纳入投资组合 以实现分散化配置，黄金被称为"最坚定的多头推荐（highest-conviction long）" 。 研报认为， 美国机构信誉风险上升以及商品供应集中度加剧创造了"尾部风险" ，可能导致商品价格飙升的同时股债下跌。 黄金则被高盛列为 大宗商品领域"最坚定推荐"的投资标的 ，该行维持黄金2025年底3700美元/盎司、2026年中期4000美元/盎司的目标价，并指出在极端情况下 金价可能升至4500美元/盎司以上。 高盛还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that may lead to soaring commodity prices while stocks and bonds decline. Gold is identified as the "highest-conviction long" investment in the commodity sector, with a mid-2026 target price of $4,000 per ounce, potentially exceeding $4,500 in extreme scenarios [1][2][5]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the commodity index is expected to have only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months under the baseline scenario, with a bullish outlook on gold, copper, and U.S. natural gas, while anticipating a supply surplus in the oil market [4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the increasing concentration of commodity supply poses significant risks, particularly as key commodities are sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions, leading to frequent supply disruptions and price volatility [6][7]. Group 2: Structural Trends Supporting Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends—de-risking energy, increased defense spending, and dollar diversification—are tightening commodity supply and demand systematically, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for commodities [8]. - The de-risking of energy is expected to drive significant copper demand due to global energy security policies, with projections indicating that investments related to the power grid will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth by 2030 [8]. - Increased defense spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel [8]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar has led to a fivefold increase in gold purchases since 2022, significantly driving up gold prices [9].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs highlights that commodities, particularly gold, are becoming key tools for hedging traditional asset risks due to factors like the independence risk of the Federal Reserve and supply chain concentration [1][4] - The firm maintains a bullish outlook on gold, setting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with a potential extreme scenario price exceeding $4,500 per ounce [1][4] - Structural trends such as de-risking energy, increased defense spending, and dollar diversification are tightening the supply-demand dynamics in the commodity market [1][7] Group 2 - The report indicates that since spring, the market has shifted from tariff uncertainties to tariff realities, stabilizing economic activity indicators and reducing the probability of a U.S. recession [2] - Despite a slowdown in U.S. job growth, the attractiveness of commodities as a diversification tool in investment portfolios is increasing, with expectations for commodities to play a more significant role in hedging inflation and extreme risks [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario predicts only moderate positive returns for commodity indices over the next 12 months, while maintaining bullish views on gold, copper, and U.S. natural gas [3] - The firm anticipates a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the global oil market by 2026, driven by strong non-OPEC oil supply growth, which could push Brent crude prices down to $50 per barrel [3] Group 4 - The risk of the Federal Reserve's independence being compromised could lead to rising inflation, falling long-term bond prices, declining stock prices, and a weakened status of the dollar as a reserve currency [4] - If private investors diversify into gold similarly to central banks, gold prices could potentially exceed $4,500 per ounce, significantly higher than the $4,000 mid-2026 baseline forecast [4] Group 5 - Increased concentration in commodity supply poses significant risks, with key commodity supplies being concentrated in geopolitically sensitive regions [5][6] - The report cites examples like the 2022 Russia-Europe gas crisis to illustrate how supply chain vulnerabilities can impact commodity prices [6] Group 6 - The three structural trends (de-risking energy, defense spending, dollar diversification) are expected to support a long-term bull market for commodities [7][8][9][10] - Global energy security policies are driving a surge in investments in electrical grids, significantly increasing copper demand, with prices projected to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027 [8] - Increased military spending in Europe is expected to raise the GDP share from 1.9% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, boosting demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel [9] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, driven by geopolitical tensions, which has been a core factor in the 94% rise in gold prices since then [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the shifting dynamics in the energy market amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with China emerging as a key player while Europe grapples with uncertainty [1][3][4] - China's oil refineries are capitalizing on the situation by significantly increasing imports of Russian oil, taking advantage of India's retreat due to U.S. tariffs, with a notable purchase of 15 million barrels in August at a $1 discount per barrel [2][5] - The geopolitical maneuvering by Putin, including his legislative promises, is seen as a strategic ploy rather than a genuine peace initiative, creating a dilemma for Western nations [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses how China's oil imports surged to an average of 75,000 barrels per day in August, a fourfold increase, filling the market gap left by India [4][13] - China's strategy includes blending cheaper Russian Ural crude with higher-quality ESPO crude to maximize profit margins, demonstrating a calculated approach to refining operations [8][13] - The article notes that China's energy cooperation is based on market principles, allowing it to navigate U.S. sanctions effectively, with over 95% of transactions settled in RMB [11][13] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that while the U.S. and Russia engage in diplomatic posturing, China remains a non-combatant yet influential player, benefiting from the chaos [10][11] - China's diversified energy sourcing strategy is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio and not relying solely on Russian oil [13] - The overall narrative suggests that despite the geopolitical tensions, China is positioned to gain economically, with its trade surplus increasing by 11.2% during the conflict [13]

Group 1 - The EU and the US are currently engaged in a significant tariff dispute, with the EU appearing to compromise under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, who has American ties [1][3][10] - Trump's announcement of a reduction in tariffs on EU goods from 30% to 15% is expected to benefit industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, although other tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits remain unresolved [3][6] - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US natural gas and investing $600 billion in US military equipment over the next three years, which has drawn criticism for potentially burdening European industries [3][6][7] Group 2 - Criticism from EU officials highlights concerns that the agreement represents a significant concession, with some describing it as a "cutting of flesh" to avoid higher tariffs [6][10] - The investment plan includes $420 billion for AI research and $180 billion for purchasing F-35 fighter jets, raising questions about the opportunity cost of not investing in Europe's semiconductor industry [7][10] - A controversial clause allows US regulators to directly review the data flow of EU digital companies, leading to protests from 137 tech firms against this provision [7][10] Group 3 - The agreement is viewed as a tactical ceasefire amid a backdrop of declining globalization, with potential implications for future global trade dynamics involving US-EU technology alliances and resource country energy alliances [10] - The ongoing economic situation in the US, including Trump's failed request for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, adds complexity to the trade landscape [10][12]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. natural gas prices, projecting $4.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the summer of 2026 [1] - The firm believes that the downside risks to their forecast are skewed towards the upside, primarily due to potential delays in producer investments [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 460 billion cubic feet last week, aligning with market expectations, marking the smallest increase since the week of April 11, 2025 [1] Industry Summary - The increase in natural gas inventory is significant as it reflects market conditions and supply-demand dynamics within the energy sector [1] - The reported figure indicates a stabilization in inventory levels, which may influence pricing and trading strategies in the natural gas market [1] - The data provided by the EIA serves as a critical indicator for investors and analysts monitoring the energy sector's performance [1]

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - London silver is currently trading above $33.54, with an opening price of $33.03 per ounce and a current price of $33.48, reflecting a 1.33% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $33.54, while the lowest was $32.88, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The trading range for platinum metal over the past month has been between $31.65 and $33.70, with recent price movements showing uncertainty as it fluctuates around the 20-period exponential moving average [3] Group 2: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU and US tariff negotiations have resumed but remain fraught with uncertainty, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, while rejecting US demands to eliminate VAT and weaken digital regulations [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key sectors [2] - The EU has initiated public consultations on a list of nearly €100 billion worth of goods in response to US tariffs and plans to file a complaint with the WTO regarding US tariffs on cars and parts [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]