1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]

总统Mulino曾在6月时表示，和第一量子矿物公司签订金属供应协议的Franco-Nevada公司同意停止针对巴拿马的 仲裁案后，"开始对话的可能性已经很明确"。 该矿曾占到全球铜矿开采量的1%。 对于巴拿马来说，该矿的重新开放可能创造数千个就业岗位，提振经济。该矿约占到巴拿马国内生产总值的5%。 Chapman表示，公众对于该矿的看法有所改善，最新民调显示，50%的受访者对该矿持有负面看法，而一年前这 一比例超过80%。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游 需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》 中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图：https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 10月20日（周一），巴拿马财政部长在接受采访时表示，巴拿马将要求重启价值100亿美元的Cobre Panama铜矿的 任何协议都必须明确规定，该国是该铜矿的土地和资源所有方。 在最高法院裁决、环境抗疫和政治动荡后，该矿山于2023年底 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the production changes in Kazakhstan's metal industry, with refined copper output increasing by 1.2% year-on-year to 355,305 tons, while refined zinc production decreased by 3% to 193,859 tons, and alumina and unprocessed aluminum production fell by 0.8% to 1,345,312 tons [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the challenges faced by China's copper industry, including rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

Group 1 - Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 242,740 tons [2] - Cumulative copper production from January to August 2025 reached approximately 1.81 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [2] - Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer [2] Group 2 - In August, the production of other key metals showed varied performance: gold increased by 8.1%, zinc by 17.2%, silver by 2.1%, lead by 1.5%, while tin decreased by 3.2% [2] - The cumulative production figures for January to August 2025 indicate a decline in gold production by 1.4%, while zinc, silver, lead, and tin saw increases of 16.1%, 7.4%, 6.0%, and 2.0% respectively [2] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - A bilingual report titled "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" has been compiled to assist the industry in addressing these challenges [3]

Group 1 - Freeport Indonesia may be forced to suspend operations at its Manyar smelter by the end of October due to insufficient copper concentrate supply following a landslide at the Grasberg mine [2] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy estimates that the supply of Grasberg copper concentrate can only last until the end of this month [2] - The landslide incident has resulted in the death of seven workers and has halted operations at the Grasberg mine for nearly a month [2] Group 2 - Grasberg is not expected to return to pre-incident operational levels until at least 2027 [2] - The Manyar smelter, which cost $3.7 billion, was previously damaged by a fire last October and only resumed operations in May of this year [2] - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2]

Group 1 - In September 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 485,000 tons, marking the highest monthly figure of the year and a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [2] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.019 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - The traditional demand peak in September, known as "Golden September," contributed to the rebound in unwrought copper and copper products imports [2] Group 2 - As the world's largest copper consumer, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map," available in both Chinese and English [4]

10月10日（周五），智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）旗下El Teniente矿场事故造成的铜产量损失料比之前预测高出45%，但Codelco主席Maximo Pacheco仍预 测这家全球最大铜矿商今年的产量将小幅增加。 智利El Teniente项目产量损失，以及包括自由港麦克默伦公司（Freeport-McMoRan）旗下印尼Grasberg项目中断，导致供应收紧，在本周将铜价推升至每吨 11,000美元，接近去年触及的纪录高位。 Pacheco表示："这是由于矿床西北部的几何形状变化和空洞相互作用而产生的垂直卸载过程……削弱了结构，从而促进了物质的向下移动。这意味着在较深 处，岩层会相互错动。" 他补充道，这意味着Codelco需要对整个矿井（该矿井由4,500公里的隧道组成）的地形结构、地震活动以及地质力学因素进行持续监测。 环境许可 Pacheco表示，Codelco计划在2027年之前申请相关环保许可，以实现其Andina矿与相邻的英美矿业的Los Bronces项目联合运营。 El Teniente是智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）最赚钱的一个项目，7月发生的事故将其今年产量削减4.8万 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铜库存延续下行趋势，最新库存水平为144,400吨，刷新近两个月新低。 2023年以来三大交易所铜库存对比 | ■ 時間 | COMEX | LME | SHFE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/26 | 322, 284 | 144, 400 | 98, 779 | | 2025/9/25 | 321, 056 | 144, 425 | | | 2025/9/24 | 318, 229 | 144, 775 | | | 2025/9/23 | 318, 386 | 144, 975 | | | 2025/9/22 | 318, 285 | 145, 375 | | | 2025/9/19 | 316, 774 | 147, 650 | 105, 814 | | 2025/9/18 | 315, 206 | 148, 875 | | | 2025/9/17 | 312, 842 | 149, 775 | | | 2025/9/16 | 312, 868 | 150, 950 | | | 2025/9/15 | 311, 84 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月28日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：原料供应扰动增强，具备长期多配价值 资料来源： SMM，同花顺iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 2 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： ◆ 铜矿供应扰动增强，铜价快速上涨。自由港就先前报告的印尼Grasberg Block Cave矿泥石流事件状况提供最新信息，主要包含以下几个 方面：（1）如先前报告，为优先进行搜救，Grasberg矿区的采矿作业自9月8日起已暂停；（2）PTFI已开始调查事件起因，预计调查将 在2025年底前完成；（3）维修工作可能导致2025年第四季度和2026年的生产出现重大推迟，预计在2027年恢复至事件前的运营水平； （4）PTFI在2026年的产量可能较事件前预估低约35%；（5）受事件影响，P ...

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 秘鲁矿业公司Minsur的一名高管周三表示，该公司将于10月启动通往一座地下铜矿的隧道爆破工作，预计将耗资约5亿美元，这是Justa矿山扩张计划的一部 分。 Minsur首席执行官Juan Luis Kruger在秘鲁南部阿雷基帕与矿业高管举行的论坛上表示，该地下矿场的目标是成为该国第二大矿场。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 ...