东方财富Choice数据显示，3月份以来全球铜价持续走高，而截至北京时间3月16日凌晨，国际铜价更是 升破了9000美元/吨关口，引发资本市场高度关注。 分析人士表示，铜价走高，一方面是因为高品质铜矿山减少，冶炼端增产不易，导致铜供应偏弱；另一 方面，电动汽车兴起，电气设备更换周期来临，对铜需求逐步增长。 在产业链中游的冶炼环节，国内多家冶炼企业将降低能耗作为主要任务，向着"多产铜、降能耗、压缩 供应链综合成本"的目标不断奋进。2023年，铜陵有色在主产品产量大幅攀升的同时，能源消耗总量不 增反降，铜冶炼综合能耗下降6.9%；2023年上半年，江西铜业推进节能降碳管理，上半年总能耗同比 下降1.39%，外购电量总体下降近1800万度；2023年上半年，云南铜业旗下的西南铜业通过优化配料， 强化工艺控制等方式，实现粗铜综合煤耗同比下降35.1%，燃煤使用量下降4230吨，降低碳排放量 10670吨，云南铜业旗下的易门铜业实现粗铜综合能耗同比下降6.1%，综合能耗降低441.2吨标准煤，减 少碳排放量约1104.9吨。 在产业链下游的用铜环节，多家企业正积极应对铜价上涨带来的成本波动，通过套期保值、长单锁价、 战 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

【重要资讯】 t.）定观：美国梦说院版共和党税协法案计划将债务上限提高至6万亿美元，将原本在众议院版本申设定于2020年到期的三项企业税收减复永久化，但未就"州知地方税扣除"（SMLT） 达成最终协议。美国后肖费瑞通胀5PI 年卒为2.4%低于预期但高于前值，特朗普政府关税政策仍示引动消费试通胀反弹，使美联储9/12月降息预期敬率升高 0617: 国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减, 国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少+E4:K28F28E4:K29E4:K30E4:K32E4:K30E4:K29E4:K30 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-06 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78550 | 78010 | 78930 | 540. 00 | 3 | | | 成交量(手) | 76515 | 98873 | 128281 | -22, 358. 00 | Vin | | | 持仓量(手) | 192243 | 193847 | 204 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue high - level oscillations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There is support on the domestic copper demand side, and the logic of tight copper raw material supply persists. Domestic social inventory is at a historically low level, and spot prices are in a continuous premium state. However, macro - level disturbances still bring uncertainties, such as the impact of US tariff negotiations on investor sentiment [6]. - In trading strategies, for single - side trading, look for phased trading opportunities, such as buying on price pull - backs. For spread trading, close out the term positive spread positions as domestic social inventory increases and spot premiums decline marginally. For internal - external arbitrage, pay attention to whether macro factors bring certainty to overseas copper prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: Volatility in four copper markets continues to decline. COMEX price volatility has dropped to around 20%, and LME copper price volatility has fallen to around 11% [10]. - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of SHFE copper remains stable, with the spread between SHFE contracts 06 - 07 holding steady at 430 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium has narrowed, and the COMEX copper C - structure has also contracted [13][14]. - **Position**: Positions in SHFE copper and LME copper have decreased, while those in international copper and COMEX copper have increased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 0.95 million lots to 52.87 million lots [15]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased. LME commercial short net positions dropped from 61,400 lots on May 9th to 60,800 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions declined from 21,522 lots on May 13th to 21,038 lots on May 20th [21]. - **Spot Premium**: Domestic copper spot premiums have narrowed, while premiums in Europe and Southeast Asia are at high levels. The domestic copper spot premium dropped from a premium of 445 yuan/ton on May 16th to 165 yuan/ton on May 23rd [24][26]. - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventory has decreased, domestic social inventory has increased, bonded area inventory has continuously decreased, COMEX inventory has increased, and LME copper inventory has declined [27][32]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper contract 06 is at a historically high level for the same period, while the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded but is still at a historically low level [33]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased, but processing fees remain weak, and smelting losses are significant. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. The spot TC for copper concentrate in the week of May 23rd was - 44.28 US dollars/ton, and smelter losses were around 3,769 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports have decreased, and domestic production has declined significantly. In April, recycled copper imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined copper price spread has narrowed, and import profitability has increased [40][45]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased, and processing fees have rebounded. In April, blister copper imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and processing fees in April showed a marginal rebound [50]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased more than expected, imports have decreased, and attention should be paid to copper import profit and loss. In April, domestic refined copper production was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.27%, and imports were 250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Current import losses have widened, which may continue to limit overseas supplies from entering the domestic market [52][53]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated, and overall they have weakened. In April, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level for the same period in history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of May 22nd, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [57]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees are at a neutral level for the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have rebounded. As of May 23rd, the processing fee for copper used in the power industry in East China was 715 yuan/ton, lower than the 995 yuan/ton on May 16th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,129 yuan/ton, higher than the 5,098 yuan/ton on May 9th [60][63]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically high level for the same period, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has declined, and that of wire and cable has decreased. In April, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to April, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 5.0553 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96%, and the apparent consumption was 5.2063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Power grid investment from January to April was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%, at a historically high level [71]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down, while new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level for the same period. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [72].