Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, including semi-finished copper goods, is expected to significantly impact various economic sectors and the U.S. copper supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariff will cover copper products used in power grids, military equipment, and data centers, with semi-finished products likely included [1]. - The details of the tariff plan are not fully disclosed, and adjustments to the measures are still possible [1]. - The market had anticipated tariffs on refined copper, but the inclusion of semi-finished products (such as wire, sheet, and pipe) was uncertain until now [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff is expected to raise production costs across multiple sectors, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, construction, and defense [1]. - In 2022, the U.S. imported 908,000 tons of refined copper, which constituted the largest import category, and these materials are processed into rods, cables, and alloy products [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The U.S. Copper Development Association highlighted that semi-finished copper products are critical to the military supply chain, representing 90% of U.S. semi-finished copper producers [2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet its own demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products, estimated at 800,000 tons last year [2]. - The potential for a 50% tariff on semi-finished products raises national security concerns, as any disruption in foreign copper supply could severely impact U.S. electricity supply [2]. Group 4: Processing Sector Challenges - Imposing tariffs on semi-finished products will directly increase costs for processing companies, which rely heavily on imported raw materials [3]. - Current domestic processing capacity cannot meet the additional demand for 800,000 tons of semi-finished products, and establishing new capacity may take up to seven years [3].

【重要资讯】 t.）定观：美国梦说院版共和党税协法案计划将债务上限提高至6万亿美元，将原本在众议院版本申设定于2020年到期的三项企业税收减复永久化，但未就"州知地方税扣除"（SMLT） 达成最终协议。美国后肖费瑞通胀5PI 年卒为2.4%低于预期但高于前值，特朗普政府关税政策仍示引动消费试通胀反弹，使美联储9/12月降息预期敬率升高 0617: 国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减, 国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少+E4:K28F28E4:K29E4:K30E4:K32E4:K30E4:K29E4:K30 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-06 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78550 | 78010 | 78930 | 540. 00 | 3 | | | 成交量(手) | 76515 | 98873 | 128281 | -22, 358. 00 | Vin | | | 持仓量(手) | 192243 | 193847 | 204 ...