Investors are piling in to exchange-traded products, betting that stock-market volatility will increase from rock-bottom levels. But while they wait to cash in on a big spike, their returns are dwindling due to a quirk of the market. The largest product that follows the performance of Cboe Volatility Index futures, the Barclays iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, has increased assets by more than 300% this year to over $1 billion. The attraction is that if the record stock rally withers, market vol ...

Economic Outlook - The speaker does not foresee an economic recession or depression [1] - The speaker suggests that the economy should have experienced 14 recessions [1] Data Integrity Concerns - The speaker claims that GDP, CPI, and PPI have been redefined [2] - The speaker implies that economic numbers are manipulated and do not reflect reality [2] - The speaker uses the example of crude oil price decrease of $20 and the lack of VIX movement to support the claim of market rigging [2] - The speaker mentions the war against Ukraine and the S&P going up as further evidence of manipulated numbers [2] Investment Implication - The speaker suggests that distrust in traditional economic indicators drives interest in Bitcoin [2]

Economic Indicators - The inflation data released this week showed a significantly lower Producer Price Index (PPI) and a firm Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a stable inflation environment [1][2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with discussions around a potential 50 basis points versus 25 basis points rate cut, influenced by weak labor market data [2][3] Market Performance - The market is currently at all-time highs, with no immediate factors suggesting a downturn ahead of the Fed's decision [4][5] - The VIX, or fear index, has dropped below 15, indicating low implied volatility in the market, which is not typical for a market at all-time highs [6][7] Sector Insights - The housing market is showing positive signs, with mortgage applications increasing due to a drop in interest rates to around 4%, which is beneficial for both the housing sector and stocks [9] - Retail sales data expected next week is anticipated to be strong, further supporting market optimism [5][8] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment data is expected to show a reading around 58, with inflation expectations at 4.8%, although this soft data is not seen as a strong indicator of current economic conditions [12][13]

Hello and welcome to Ask You for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into.Wall Street is seeing red today, the first trading day of September. Historically, we know this month has been known to be the worst performing at the end of two Tuesday session. All major indices ...

Market Risk Assessment - Bank of America suggests the low VIX (Volatility Index) trend is unlikely to continue as autumn risks approach, especially after Powell's pivot [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower and fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.11% to 3888 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.73% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 169.98 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performing sectors included gaming, aquaculture, beauty care, chemical fiber, agricultural product processing, IT services, environmental protection equipment, logistics, and software development [1] - Weaker sectors included small metals, new materials, medical services, military equipment, banking, electric machinery, and semiconductors [1] Concept Stocks - Notable concept stocks that saw gains included poultry, pork, Huawei's Euler, and Huawei's Ascend [1] Market Sentiment - Current A-share market sentiment is at a historically high level, with various indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 experiencing high volatility [2] - The VIX for the E Fund ChiNext ETF has shown a phase of decline, indicating potential market stabilization [2] Institutional Focus - Institutions are currently focusing on the retail trade and non-bank financial sectors, while interest in the transportation sector has decreased from previous highs [2] - Many industries are approaching crowded indicator thresholds, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics [2] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to August 2025, there is optimism for relative returns in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, banking, electricity and utilities, construction, and food and beverage [2]

Market Trends - Options traders, concerned about stock market volatility, are moving away from VIX call options as a hedge [1] - Traders are increasingly favoring vanilla put options instead [1]

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a hawkish rate cut in September, with interest rate-sensitive sectors like retail, home builders, and banks rallying on this expectation [2] - The market initially overreacted to dovish comments, overlooking broader market dynamics; a weaker dollar supports international markets, commodities, and multinationals [2] - The market may be prematurely pricing in an easing cycle beyond a single rate cut, given persistent goods inflation [10] - Prior to the speech, there was a 74% chance of a rate cut, which increased to 87%; this shift, though not drastic, significantly moved the market [10] - In May, the odds of a rate cut were zero, with the "higher for longer" narrative gaining traction [11] Inflation & Employment - Inflation remains a key concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - The Fed is balancing its mandates of stable pricing (inflation) and full employment, with recent jobs numbers raising concerns [4][5][8] - PPI data indicates ongoing goods inflation, though services inflation is balancing it out [10] Rate Cut & Neutral Rate - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with the key question being whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points [5] - Determining the neutral rate (estimated around 3% to 35%) is crucial for gauging how aggressively the Fed will cut rates to avoid inflationary or deflationary pressures [6] - The current Fed funds rate is approximately 43%, positioning it in the middle of the range [6]

Market Sentiment & Catalysts - The market currently exhibits a positive attitude, downplaying concerns like terrorism and focusing on fiscal tailwinds [1] - Negative catalysts are not expected until September, with low expectations for Russia-Ukraine peace talks [10] - A collapse in volatility (VIX at year-to-date lows) is a positive tailwind for markets [6][9][11] Tariff Impact & Business Strategy - Companies are delaying reactions to tariffs due to policy changes, making quick reactions disadvantageous [4] - Businesses have been able to front-run tariffs, providing more room to delay [4][5] - Tariffs are a slow-moving story, with a potential major negative impact not expected until the fourth quarter or even the first quarter of the following year [5] Economic Indicators - The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey indicates that fiscal tailwinds are dominating tough concerns [1] - An in-line inflation print has removed scary catalysts, contributing to the short-term boom in stocks [6]

- The SKEW index has reached historical highs, signaling elevated tail risk concerns. Specifically, the SKEW values for major indices are as follows: CSI 1000 SKEW at 110.41, CSI 500 SKEW at 99.92, SSE 50 SKEW at 101.43, and CSI 300 SKEW at 106.06[4][73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects market expectations of future volatility. As of August 1, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for major indices are: SSE 50 VIX at 19.16, CSI 300 VIX at 19.22, CSI 500 VIX at 23.22, and CSI 1000 VIX at 22.76[4][64][66] - The SKEW index measures implied volatility skew across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment regarding tail risks. A SKEW value above 100 indicates heightened concerns about potential market downturns, often associated with increased demand for out-of-the-money put options[73][78] - The Cinda-VIX index incorporates term structures to reflect volatility expectations across different time horizons, providing insights into investor sentiment for various periods[64][66][70] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) adjusted annualized basis spread declined to -10.33%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) adjusted annualized basis spread fell to -11.85%[22][39][46] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy achieved weekly returns of 0.55%, while the CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy delivered weekly returns of 0.32%[4][49][60] - The CSI 500 futures contract (IC) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -2.80% to -1.04%, with volatility between 3.84% and 4.63%, and maximum drawdown from -8.65% to -7.97%[49][50][52] - The CSI 1000 futures contract (IM) hedging strategy's annualized return ranged from -6.03% to -3.84%, with volatility between 4.73% and 5.57%, and maximum drawdown from -14.00% to -11.11%[60][61][62]