Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a reference price range of 26.0 - 26.5. The macro - economic situation shows the US June PPI hitting a near - one - year low, and Trump's tariff plans and trade agreement announcements. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, after the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, some producers' operating rates have declined, and the electronics industry is in a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have dropped, but downstream procurement willingness is still low, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly while LME de - stocking has slowed and the premium has declined. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of holdings, and the price has broken below the MA60 support, increasing the downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price for Shanghai tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position volume for Shanghai tin is 22,969 lots, up 221 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 420 tons, down 150 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 14,450 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year growth was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month growth of 0%. Trump said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10% tariffs" on at least 100 countries and mentioned trade agreements. Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies for strengthening the domestic large - cycle and regulate the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3]. 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].

7月15日，国家统计局公布经济"半年报"。从各项数据来看，中国经济仍顶压前行、稳定运行。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.3%。 今年以来，大家都有所感受，国际环境复杂多变、国际经贸秩序遭受重创，不稳定性、不确定性增加。在这样的背景下，这份成绩单的"含金量"不言而 喻。 第一个字，"进"。以新质生产力为例，我们知道，新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。从上半年情况来看，新质生产力继续在加快培 育和成长，其中一个突出表现就是创新成果不断涌现。今年以来，从DeepSeek大模型到机器人马拉松赛，从航空航天到无人驾驶，引起国内外广泛关 注。更重要的是，这些创新成果并非偶然，而源于技术创新与产业创新融合发展力度加大。目前，数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达到10%左右，上 半年高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%，可见新动能正在加快积聚。 第二个字，"稳"。经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变，只有中国经济"稳"的基础更加牢固，"进"的势头才更加明显。上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，其中一季度是 5.4%，二季度是5.2%，上半年的增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant achievements of China over the past five years, highlighting economic stability, improved efficiency, and enhanced living standards [2][3] - China's total economic growth exceeded 35 trillion, equivalent to recreating an economy the size of the Yangtze River Delta, with an average growth rate of 5.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Research and development investment has increased by nearly 50% compared to five years ago, with R&D expenditure accounting for 2.68% of GDP, showcasing China's commitment to innovation [2][3] Group 2 - The business environment has improved significantly, with the number of private enterprises increasing to over 58 million, representing a growth of over 40% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The government has streamlined foreign investment regulations, reducing the negative list for foreign access to only 29 items, thus enhancing the openness of the economy [2] - The establishment of the world's largest healthcare, education, and social security systems has improved the quality of life for citizens, with increasing life expectancy and better access to essential services [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to counter external risks and ensure stable economic growth in China [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Economic Growth - The State Council meeting highlighted the need to enhance domestic circulation to promote stable and sustainable economic development, especially in light of increasing external challenges [1]. - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, indicating that domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth [3][4]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment Trends - In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.5458 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales following the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [4]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but showed a decline of 0.12% month-on-month in June, indicating a potential slowdown in investment activities [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - The government plans to implement specific measures to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, which has already seen sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4][5]. - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy to include more product categories is expected to create new consumption growth points and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [5]. Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half, with significant growth in sectors like leisure, transportation, and personalized consumption [7][8]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption by addressing key issues and increasing the supply of diverse services related to daily life, such as dining, healthcare, and education [8]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - Analysts suggest that the government may introduce new measures to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and increasing support for the "old-for-new" policy [8]. - The overall low government debt level and low inflation provide ample room for policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, the terminal demand has strong resilience, the inventory decreases while the apparent demand increases. Coupled with the positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, it supports the hot - rolled coil futures to stop falling and rebound. Technically, for the HC2510 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green column turns red. The operation suggestion is short - term long - biased trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,292 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; HC main contract position is 1,610,257 lots, up 60,284 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position is - 14,016 lots, up 7,882 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 62,501 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 159 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuhan is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively; in Tianjin, it is 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis is 38 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan/wet ton, up 13 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,210 yuan; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 0 yuan/ton, down 2,970 yuan [2]. - Domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,765.89 tons, down 112.51 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 59.77 tons, down 1.94 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory is 637.97 tons, up 0.42 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 103.62 tons, up 6.09 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 0.40% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 tons, down 2 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.04%, down 0.51% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 77.31 tons, down 0.5 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 265.6 tons, down 2.15 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel production is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons; steel net export volume is 920.8 tons, down 89.2 tons [2]. - Automobile production is 2.7941 million vehicles, up 0.1456 million vehicles; automobile sales is 2.9045 million vehicles, up 0.2181 million vehicles [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Air - conditioner production is 2,838.31 million units, down 109.69 million units; household refrigerator production is 904.74 million units, up 53.74 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production is 950.79 million units, up 9.59 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 17, Mysteel reported that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 321.14 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2 tons; the steel mill inventory was 77.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 tons; the social inventory was 265.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15 tons; the total inventory was 342.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the apparent demand was 323.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.571 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.473 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11% [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) +27↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 3,133.00 | | 2126876 | -10181↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 13799 | +29622↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 94600 | -2089↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 159 | +12↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting in Henan aims to further integrate and serve the national unified market construction, emphasizing the importance of this initiative for high-quality development and the new development pattern [2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The meeting focused on the need to deeply understand and implement the spirit of Xi Jinping's important speech during his visit to Henan [2]. - The provincial government is tasked with ensuring the effective execution of the "five unifications and one openness" basic requirements to enhance domestic and international dual circulation [3]. Group 2: Market Infrastructure and Regulation - There is a call to unify market infrastructure and strengthen both hard and soft connections, particularly in modern commercial circulation systems, especially in rural areas [3]. - The government is urged to standardize regulatory practices and enhance legal, credit, and smart supervision to improve market regulation [3]. Group 3: Economic Development Actions - The meeting outlined several action plans, including market expansion to stimulate consumption and investment, and infrastructure connectivity to eliminate logistical bottlenecks [4]. - Specific initiatives include enhancing agricultural production capacity, optimizing the business environment, and improving the efficiency of resource allocation across various markets [4].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable economic growth, focusing on key action points to boost consumption and optimize policies [2][3] - It was highlighted that the government should systematically eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending and enhance the supply of diverse products to meet increasing consumer demand [2] - The meeting called for improved policy precision and operability, as well as enhanced inter-departmental collaboration to address bottlenecks in domestic circulation [2][3] Group 2 - The importance of audit rectification was underscored as a crucial aspect of enhancing government credibility and execution, with a focus on holding audited units accountable for timely corrections [3] - The meeting addressed the need for high-quality development in the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to regulate irrational competition through comprehensive measures and industry self-discipline [3] - A draft decision to amend the "Regulations on the Entry and Exit Administration of Foreigners" was approved during the meeting [3]

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Chinese government emphasizes boosting domestic consumption as a key economic task for 2025, addressing unreasonable restrictions and optimizing trade-in policies[2] - Concerns arise over the effectiveness of consumption policies due to recent retail sales data falling short of expectations, prompting government action to stabilize market confidence[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump indicates potential drug tariffs by the end of July, with a unified 10% tariff possibly affecting 150 countries[3] - Ongoing trade negotiations with India may lead to agreements before August 1, highlighting trade policy as a significant uncertainty for global markets[3] Technological Advancements and Investments - AI's next wave is expected to focus on robotic systems, enhancing human-machine collaboration in manufacturing over the next decade[4] - Meta plans to invest several hundred billion dollars in AI, aiming to lead in the deployment of large-scale AI infrastructure[4] Energy Sector Insights - National power load in China reaches a record high of 1.506 billion kilowatts, reflecting a 0.55 million kilowatt increase from last year, indicating strong energy demand[4] - The growth in renewable energy generation capacity, particularly in wind and solar, is anticipated to continue at a rapid pace[4] Market Performance Metrics - The latest 10-year government bond yield stands at 1.662%, with a slight change of 0.13 basis points[6] - The DR007 rate is reported at 1.529%, showing a decrease of 4.05 basis points[6] Stock Market Trends - Recent data shows a market turnover of 146.17 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.26%[15] - The financing balance as of July 15, 2025, is reported at 187.73 billion yuan, indicating market liquidity trends[15] Industry Performance Highlights - The top three performing sectors are social services, automotive, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, reflecting current investment interests[18] - Net capital inflows are highest in light manufacturing, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors, indicating investor confidence in these areas[20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions in U.S.-China relations[28]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth [1] - The meeting proposed specific measures such as removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, expanding investment in emerging service industries, and optimizing the old-for-new policy for consumer goods [1][3] - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [2] Group 2 - The old-for-new policy for consumer goods is identified as a key measure to expand domestic demand, with sales related to this policy exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3][4] - The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new policy in July, focusing on timely and balanced implementation [3] - Service consumption is highlighted as an important area for tapping into consumption potential, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] Group 3 - The State Council calls for targeted actions to enhance policy precision and operability, aiming to address bottlenecks in domestic circulation [6] - There is potential for expanding the scope of the old-for-new policy to include more categories and support high-quality, green, and intelligent products [4][6] - The government has ample policy space to stimulate domestic demand, given its relatively low debt levels and inflation rates compared to other major economies [6]