Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of scientific macro-control and effective government governance as key to leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economy system. It highlights the continuous strengthening of macro policies in response to external pressures and internal difficulties this year [1]. Group 1: Macro Policy Measures - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is part of a larger effort to implement "two重" and "two新" policies with greater intensity [1]. - A variety of monetary policy tools are being utilized to maintain ample liquidity in the market [1]. - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment while also expanding job opportunities to keep the overall employment situation stable [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Economic Stimulus - The approach combines promoting consumption with improving people's livelihoods to enhance the intrinsic motivation for consumption [1]. - The government is committed to responding to market concerns promptly to ensure the forward-looking nature of policies [1]. Group 3: Policy Effectiveness - Enhancing policy effectiveness requires a good evaluation mechanism to ensure the practical results of policies [1]. - Strengthening collaborative innovation is essential to ensure the systemic nature of policies [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of proactive macroeconomic policies to sustain economic growth and address challenges, highlighting the need for effective government governance and scientific macro-control [1] - The report indicates that despite notable achievements, there are fluctuations in key economic indicators such as fixed asset investment and retail sales, suggesting a slowdown in domestic demand [1] - The government is implementing various measures, including issuing long-term special bonds and utilizing multiple monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and stabilize employment [1] Group 2 - Enhancing policy effectiveness requires timely responses to market concerns and ensuring the forward-looking nature of macroeconomic policies, focusing on stimulating market vitality [2] - The necessity of a robust evaluation mechanism is highlighted to assess the effectiveness of policies, ensuring they meet their intended goals and adjusting them as needed [2] - Strengthening collaborative innovation is essential for ensuring the systemic nature of policies, promoting a unified national market, and addressing competitive challenges [3] Group 3 - The report stresses the importance of aligning policy goals, tools, timing, intensity, and rhythm to maximize the impact of policies on economic entities and the public [3] - Positive market expectations are crucial as they can lead to proactive economic behaviors, encouraging long-term and creative activities [3] - The coordinated approach across various policy areas, including finance, trade, and employment, is vital for enhancing the internal driving force for high-quality development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the positive trends in the national economy over the first seven months, with new growth drivers emerging and a steady development trajectory maintained [1] - The macroeconomic policies have become more proactive, effectively promoting high-quality economic development amidst various risks and challenges [1] - There is a need for scientific macro-control and effective government governance to leverage the advantages of the socialist market economy [1] Group 2 - Enhancing policy effectiveness requires timely responses to market concerns and ensuring the forward-looking nature of macroeconomic policies [2] - Policies should focus on stimulating market vitality and be regularly pre-researched to refine the policy toolbox for precise adjustments [2] - The evaluation mechanism is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of policies, requiring a focus on high-quality development and assessing whether policies meet their intended goals [2] Group 3 - Strengthening collaborative innovation is essential for ensuring the systemic nature of policies, promoting a unified national market, and addressing competitive issues [3] - Coordinated efforts across various policy areas, including finance, employment, and trade, are necessary to enhance the internal driving force for high-quality development [3] - Improving the forward-looking, effective, and systematic nature of policies will shape positive market expectations, encouraging proactive economic behavior [3]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the economic recovery momentum and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, with a focus on six key areas for the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Implementation - The government aims to enhance the effectiveness of macro policy implementation, assess policy impacts, and respond to market concerns to stabilize expectations [1] - There is a recognition of marginal economic slowdown in June and July, particularly in fixed asset investment and retail sales, necessitating timely responses to stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Circulation - Strengthening domestic circulation is identified as a key focus, leveraging its inherent stability and long-term growth potential to counter uncertainties in international circulation [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Potential - The government plans to stimulate consumption by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service consumption and new consumption models [4] Group 4: Effective Investment - There is an emphasis on increasing effective investment, particularly in major projects that can boost domestic demand, create jobs, and support growth, with a focus on investments that serve the public [4] Group 5: Unified Market Construction - The meeting highlights the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market to continuously release the benefits of a super-large-scale market [5] Group 6: Real Estate Market Stabilization - The government intends to take strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, addressing the need for improvement in housing demand [5]

Group 1: Urea Futures - The urea futures price soared on August 19, with the main contract rising by 62 yuan, or 3.53%, to close at 1789 yuan. The surge was mainly due to the unexpectedly high tender offer for urea imports by India's IPL company [3]. - On the supply side, the daily output of the urea industry remained at a high level of 190,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 50 tons on August 5), the total enterprise inventory climbed to 917,300 tons (a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons on July 30), and the production enterprise operating rate was 84.93% (a week - on - week increase of 1.58%), indicating high supply elasticity [3]. - On the demand side, it showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and uncertain exports". The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in North and Central China increased slowly, the raw material inventory could be used for about 7 days, and the purchasing willingness was low. Agricultural demand entered a seasonal off - season, and the grass - roots stocking willingness was lacking. Although the export port inspection policy was relaxed, the actual order conversion had not increased significantly [3]. - There are differences in the market regarding the subsequent trend. The bearish view believes that urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the abundant supply pattern remains unchanged, expecting a weakening oscillation. The cautiously optimistic group points out that the current price is not high, the room for continuous decline is limited, and although one should not be overly optimistic about the upside, the export theme may still ferment [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures - News: Li Qiang proposed to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies and stabilize market expectations. Many securities brokerage business departments saw a peak in customer consultations [7]. - Operation: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation on a platform [11]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The fundamentals are relatively strong as steel mills' profitability has improved, leading to high pig iron production. Also, under the call against involution, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Technically, it continued to adjust today, and it should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation in the near future [15]. Group 5: Glass - The macro - environment has improved and is continuously strengthening under the recovery expectation. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market drive mainly comes from the domestic economy [19][20]. - Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Group 6: Methanol - Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased slightly due to a small amount of re - exports and ship departures, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [22].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals set by the government [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The Chinese economy has shown steady progress and high-quality development under the strong leadership of the central government, overcoming difficulties and challenges [4]. - There is a recognition of both the achievements made and the risks and challenges faced in the current economic environment, necessitating a balanced understanding of the situation [4]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - There is a call to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation, ensuring policies are targeted and responsive to market concerns to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The focus is on strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, stimulating consumption, and expanding effective investment [5]. Group 3: Market and Investment - The government aims to consolidate the real estate market's stabilization and promote urban renewal projects to release improvement demand [5]. - There is an emphasis on deepening reform and opening up to enhance development momentum, particularly through innovation in technology and industry [5]. Group 4: Administrative Efficiency - Local governments are urged to improve administrative efficiency and optimize regulatory and service frameworks to create favorable conditions for businesses and citizens [6]. - The importance of practical problem-solving and enhancing government work quality is highlighted [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On August 18, the central bank conducted 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report continues the loose monetary policy idea, which has some support for short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the seesaw effect between bonds and equity and commodity markets will continue. Bond funds and household and corporate deposits may continue to flow to the non - banking sector with higher returns, suppressing bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the price differentiation between new and old bonds and between short - and long - term bonds will intensify, and the inter - period and inter - variety spreads may also widen [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.26%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2509 contract increased, while that of the T2512 contract decreased [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 4.75bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 1bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 18, the central bank carried out 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment was 1545 billion yuan after 1120 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted the bidding for the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits (eighth issue), with a winning total of 1200 billion yuan and a winning rate of 1.78% [3] - **Policy Stance**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized improving the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the stabilization of the real estate market [3] - **Market Supervision**: The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into relevant institutions due to the misappropriation of debt financing tool funds by some issuing enterprises and the ineffective performance of supervision duties by relevant funds supervision banks [3] - **International Events**: The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. Trump met with Zelensky, and they discussed possible trilateral talks and US military participation in peace - keeping in Ukraine. India plans to reform the goods and services tax in response to Trump's tariff threat [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Movements**: On August 18, most money market interest rates increased. Yields of most US Treasury bonds rose [3] - **Market Situation**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased. The central bank's net investment, the rise of Shibor short - term varieties, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the inflow of funds into the non - banking sector led to a convergence of the money supply. The US economic data affected the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the domestic real estate market was still in adjustment, but the social financing stock growth rate continued to rise [3]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to unify thoughts and actions with the central government's scientific judgment and decision-making to consolidate and expand the economic recovery trend and achieve annual economic and social development goals [1] - The meeting highlighted that China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, achieving new results in high-quality development despite facing risks and challenges [1][2] - There is a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations [2] Group 2 - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, stimulate consumption, and promote effective investment [2] - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market and release improvement demand through urban renewal and renovation of old housing [2] - There is a commitment to deepen reform and opening up, promote technological and industrial innovation, and expand high-level foreign trade [2][3] Group 3 - The emphasis is on improving administrative efficiency and optimizing government regulation and services to create favorable conditions for citizens and businesses [3] - The government is encouraged to innovate and enhance capabilities to adapt to new situations and solve new problems [3] - A call for practical efforts to improve the overall level of government work is made [3]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to unify thoughts and actions with the Central Committee's scientific judgment and decision-making regarding the current economic situation, aiming to consolidate and expand the economic recovery momentum to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1] - The meeting highlighted that, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, China's economy has shown steady progress and achieved new results in high-quality development, indicating strong resilience and vitality [1][2] - There is a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation, assessing policy impacts, and responding to market concerns to stabilize market expectations [2] Group 2 - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, stimulate consumption potential, and remove restrictive measures in the consumption sector [2] - There is an emphasis on increasing effective investment, particularly in major projects that cater to changing demands and promote private investment [2] - The meeting calls for deepening reform and opening up to enhance development momentum, promoting technological and industrial innovation, and expanding high-level foreign trade [2][3]