请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要泄露散布转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为申望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家好我是身份交易的首席分析师严海现在我来汇报一下我们最新的观点上一周其实大家关注的比较多的也是3月24号美国的传播法案已经临近了其实市场在这个法案落地之前已经充分反映了相对的悲观预期无论是集运还是 应该都会上修的如果这个事最终否决掉整体我们认为压制传播板块的固执的压制应该都会解除所以现在零件建议大家积极关注现在无论是集运还是传播其实都是在一个预期相对低的位置 另外就是刚入通的德强海运其实如果跟我们观点紧其实去年11月在港股刚上的时候因为IPO的估值很便宜我们就有个提示上周入通之后整体的市场的关注度其实也是在持续提升的这个位置集运板块的中小型船其实是我们现在最看好的也希望大家多多关注如果大家看我们年度策略 东南亚的几月无论是头部的海风还是这个新入通的德翔包括A股的宁波远洋还有这个景江航运其实在这个航运各个细分板块里这个小型集装箱船的这个供给我们认为是最紧 ...

转载转发均属侵权国泰均安证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利国泰均安证券不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒广大投资者谨慎做出投资决策大家好欢迎参加国泰均安深海科技蓝色动力 策略联合行业解读深海科技和海洋经济投资逻辑电话会目前所有的参会者均处于静音状态现在有请主持人开始发言谢谢好的谢谢各位领导下午好我是国泰纪元研究所策略分析师苏辉负责主题投资策略和购物选择非常欢迎大家在周日的下午三点来参加由国军策略联合行业举办的主题周刊栏目 那么我们每周呢会就市场关注的一些焦点话题及时深度的做出解读本期是我们第八期的电话会啊那么在此前我们已经就大家关注一些热点话题比如说像deepfake 支架平权包括国产算力 AI智能眼镜固态电池两会的产业政策以及人口政策等等这些话题为大家做了解读如果大家对于往期的内容感兴趣的话也可以联系我们发送回放和会议的纪要那么今天我们会议的主题是围绕深海科技和海洋经济那么这个也是上周大家关注的一个焦点的话题那么除了我们策略之外我们也邀请到了像石化 军工通信电信以及机械行业的分析师给大家来分享各自行业的思路那么接下来呢首先由我从策略的角度啊整体汇报一下我们对主题废弃策略啊以及本次会议的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is benefiting from long-term favorable conditions despite tariff impacts, with a focus on domestic demand recovery and technological advancements [4][5] - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach a market size of one trillion by 2030, driven by policy support and infrastructure development [3] - The report highlights the resilience of engineering machinery companies, with limited exposure to the US market and a strong presence in the Belt and Road regions [4] Weekly Market Review - From April 6 to April 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.13% and 6.73%, respectively. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index decreased by 6.78%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.91 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [13][15] - Sub-sectors such as general equipment, specialized equipment, and automation equipment experienced declines of -7.96%, -7.83%, and -8.75%, respectively [13][16] Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy is characterized by strong policy drivers, rapid technological iterations, and extensive scenario applications, with central and local governments collaborating on airspace management reforms [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the US tariff policy as a significant factor affecting the export industry, with domestic replacements accelerating due to external pressures [4] Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and Huase Group [5] - In the mechanical equipment sector, suggested companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli [5]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The AI industry is expected to remain a key investment theme for the year, with significant developments anticipated in AI models and applications, particularly with the upcoming release of GPT-4.1 and related technologies [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" investment opportunities, highlighting the potential in sectors such as optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [19][20] - The government’s focus on deep-sea technology and the North Star satellite industry is seen as a catalyst for growth in these sectors [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include companies in optical modules and optical devices such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [3][23] - For switch server PCBs, recommended companies include Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [3][23] - Emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend companies like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [3][23] - AIDC and cooling solutions are highlighted with key recommendations for companies like Yingweike and Runze Technology [3][23] - AIGC applications and edge computing power are recommended for companies like Guohua Tong and Meige Intelligent [3][23] 2. Marine Wind and Submarine Cables - Key recommendations for marine wind and submarine cable companies include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Dongfang Cable [4][24] - The report notes a recovery in overseas expansion and concentration on leading companies such as Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [4][24] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The report highlights the acceleration of low-orbit satellites and the low-altitude economy, recommending companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [5][25] - Suggested companies for attention include Chengchang Technology and Zhenlei Technology [5][25] 4. Recent Industry Dynamics - The AI industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with OpenAI's upcoming GPT-4.1 model expected to enhance multimodal reasoning capabilities [10][12] - The National Development and Reform Commission is seeking public opinion on the Satellite Navigation Regulations, which is expected to support the development of the Beidou satellite industry [13][14]

Summary of Deep Sea Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the deep sea technology sector, which is expected to replicate the previous excess returns seen in the low-altitude economy due to improved risk appetite and liquidity conditions [2][6] - The deep sea technology theme combines stable performance with low valuation, showing significant investment value during the April earnings disclosure period [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Potential**: Deep sea technology is anticipated to exhibit substantial elasticity opportunities under favorable conditions, similar to the low-altitude economy's performance [2] - **Performance Metrics**: Statistical analysis indicates that deep sea technology has higher revenue and profit growth rates compared to other sectors, marking the beginning of an upward cycle in marine engineering equipment [3] - **Comparative Analysis**: A scoring system shows deep sea technology ranks high in academic influence, policy impact, and international mapping, but has weaknesses in public discourse and investment scale, indicating room for growth [4] - **Regional Advantages**: Coastal provinces in China, particularly the southern coastal areas, have a geographical advantage for developing deep sea technology, potentially leading to sustained industrial cluster effects [5] - **Technological Support**: Deep sea technology is crucial for advancing upstream material information and midstream equipment manufacturing technologies, pushing industries towards high-end development [9] - **Development Trends**: Key trends include the evolution of detection platforms towards unmanned, intelligent, and clustered systems, and the integration of various underwater monitoring networks [10][13] Additional Insights - **Investment Focus**: Current investment should target breakthroughs in upstream and midstream technologies, with a future shift towards downstream applications once progress is made [10] - **Material Development**: Advanced materials that withstand deep sea conditions are critical, with a focus on corrosion-resistant and pressure-resistant materials [15] - **Policy Continuity**: Deep sea technology has significant policy continuity, highlighted by its mention in national development strategies and the need for energy independence [19][20] - **Strategic Importance**: The development of commercial technology in deep sea sectors is strategically important due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties [21] - **Local Government Initiatives**: Local governments are actively responding to national policies by formulating support measures and restructuring institutions to promote marine economic development [22] Conclusion - The deep sea technology sector presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its robust fundamentals, low valuations, and significant growth potential, making it a key area for investor focus [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices on April 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3186.81 points, up 1.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 9539.89 points, up 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index at 1858.36 points, up 0.98% [1][2] Sector Performance - Military stocks experienced a surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Tongyi Aerospace and Shengnan Technology, both up nearly 30% [4][5] - Duty-free store concept stocks also saw significant activity in the afternoon, with companies like Gree Real Estate and Zhongxin Tourism reaching their daily limits [6] - The semiconductor sector, low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, computing power, AI applications, robotics, e-commerce, and consumer electronics were among the top gainers [1][4] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, computer, and national defense sectors, while outflows were noted in pharmaceuticals, public utilities, and basic chemicals [7] - Specific stocks such as China Great Wall, Hang Steel, and Beidahuang saw net inflows of 21.27 billion, 19.28 billion, and 15.64 billion respectively [7] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the market has quickly priced in risks from irrational declines, suggesting limited potential for further significant downturns [9] - CITIC Securities noted an overall oversupply in the semiconductor sector but highlighted the resilience of leading companies [10]

为什么这时候突然发红包？ 2024年，海油工程实现归母净利润21.61亿元，同比增长33.38%；扣非净利润18.09亿元，同比增长 46.20%。 2025年政府工作报告，第一次把 "深海科技" 四个字单独拎出来，和商业航天、低空经济并列，还加 了"安全健康发展"的限定词。 这相当于，国家拿着喇叭喊："兄弟们，去海底捞钱，我给你们开绿灯！" 因为陆地上的油快不够用了。 中国原油对外依存度长期超过70%，而南海已探明的石油储量相当于波斯湾的1/3，天然气储量相当于 卡塔尔的两倍。 更刺激的是，南海深海区还有全球最大的可燃冰储量——这玩意烧起来比传统天然气还干净，关键是： 1立方米可燃冰，居然能释放160立方米天然气。 但很少有人敢大规模开采。 因为深海作业是烧钱黑洞：水深每增加100米，设备成本指数级上涨，1500米的海底作业相当于在珠峰 顶上修高铁。 直到中国搞出了"奋斗者号"万米深潜器、自主式水下机器人（AUV）、钛合金耐压壳体这些黑科技， 深海采油才从科幻片，变成了生意经。 深海印钞机的硬核实力 上次给的政策红包，到底有多大？ 直接看数字：2025年政府给深海科技定的KPI是——海洋生产总值突破13万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from policy-driven to a multi-dimensional resonance phase involving technology, capital, and scenarios, with five major trends expected to reshape urban transportation, logistics, and tourism industries over the next 3-5 years [3]. - The mechanical equipment sector is showing resilience, with excavator sales increasing by over 20% year-on-year as of January-February 2025, and the engineering machinery import-export trade amounting to 8.426 billion USD [3]. - The government work report for 2025 highlights deep-sea technology, indicating that related industries are expected to catalyze gradually [3]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - From March 30 to April 3, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.95%. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index decreased by 2.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.14 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][11]. Key Sector Tracking - **Low-altitude Economy**: Expected to become a trillion-level new track, driven by the mass production of flying cars and the opening of airspace trials [3]. - **Mechanical Equipment**: The sector remains competitive despite external factors like tariffs, with strong domestic sales and export resilience. The overall industry is expected to continue its recovery [3]. Investment Recommendations - **Low-altitude Economy**: Recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, and Wan Feng Ao Wei among others [4]. - **Mechanical Equipment**: Suggested companies include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Huazhong CNC [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has pre-won an order for an information processing subsystem with a value of approximately 160 million yuan, which represents 97% of the company's audited revenue for 2023, providing clear support for performance [5][6] - The development of underwater offensive and defensive equipment is expected to accelerate due to increasing maritime security concerns, with the government emphasizing the need for enhanced capabilities in this area [6] - The integration of artificial intelligence with underwater acoustic equipment is ongoing, with the company developing high-performance computing platforms and data analysis equipment based on GPU chips [6] - The company is anticipated to reach a performance turning point in 2025, with projected revenues of 3.23 billion yuan if not considering one-off adjustments [7] - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are -17 million, 95 million, and 145 million yuan respectively, with significant growth rates of 89%, 658%, and 53% [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 34.57 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.1 billion yuan [4] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 165 million yuan, with a projected increase to 371 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 125.23% [10] - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is 122.88 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 95.09 million yuan [10] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be -240 in 2024 and 28 in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The deep-sea industry is recognized for its vast resource potential and strategic importance, with significant government support anticipated for deep-sea technology development [3][16] - Deep-sea resources, particularly energy and mineral resources, are abundant, with deep-sea areas becoming major contributors to global oil and gas reserves [18][22] - The development of underwater technology and equipment has made significant progress, laying the foundation for deep-sea resource exploitation [35][50] Summary by Sections Section 1: Deep Sea as a Resource and Strategic Area - The deep sea, defined as waters below 200 meters, constitutes about two-thirds of the ocean floor and is rich in biological and mineral diversity [3][10] - China's total marine area is approximately 4.73 million square kilometers, with significant deep-sea regions in the South China Sea and East China Sea [12][16] - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology in its 2025 work report, indicating future policy support for this sector [16][18] Section 2: Civilian Sector - Breakthroughs in Underwater Technology and Resource Development - Underwater technology encompasses exploration, construction, oil and gas extraction, and mineral development, with recent advancements in various equipment [35][50] - The core sensor for deep-sea exploration is sonar, which is essential for environmental monitoring and resource assessment [37][39] - The development of underwater mining technology is progressing, with successful trials and increasing industrialization potential for oil, gas, and mineral resources [59][70] Section 3: Deep-Sea Warfare - Underwater Defense Capabilities - The deep sea offers a large, concealed operational space, making it strategically significant for military operations [74] - The underwater defense system includes both infrastructure and equipment, with a focus on unmanned systems for various military tasks [74][75] - There is an urgent need for China to enhance its underwater defense capabilities, with new technologies and equipment being introduced [74][75]