1月15日，加密货币市场在 2026 年伊始便展现出截然不同的交易逻辑。FXGT表示，随着比特币年内涨 幅逼近 10% 关口，市场权力的天平正再次向北美交易时段倾斜。与 2025 年底那种美盘开盘即抛售的阴 霾不同，当前的定价权正被西方市场的活跃买盘牢牢掌握。FXGT认为，这种跨年度的时段性趋势逆 转，不仅修复了此前 80000 美元附近的底部结构，更为全年走势奠定了乐观的基调。 根据最新的事实数据表示，2026 年比特币约 8% 的累计收益均在北美交易时间段产生，尤其是 UTC 时 间 14：00 至 16：00（美股开盘初段）已成为全天涨幅最为密集的窗口。FXGT分析认为，这标志着机 构与大宗资金的风险偏好已发生根本性转变。相比之下，亚洲时段的相对疲软与欧洲时段的温和表现， 进一步凸显了美盘资金作为目前市场"领头羊"的地位。即便 Coinbase 溢价偶尔出现负值，这可能暗示 全球性资金正通过 offshore 平台在美盘同步发力。 在股票联动方面，比特币相关资产的集体复苏为加密市场提供了双重验证。作为风向标的 Strategy （MSTR） 在回踩 200 周均线这一长期生命线后，已由 151 美元的低 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market opened positively on January 15, with all three major indices rising: Dow Jones up 0.65%, Nasdaq up 0.9%, and S&P 500 up 0.64% [1] - The Dow Jones reached 49,466.83 points, gaining 317.20 points, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw significant increases [2] Semiconductor Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant surge, with TSMC's ADR rising over 6%, reaching a market cap of over $1.8 trillion, making it the sixth largest in the US stock market [2] - TSMC reported a 35% year-over-year profit increase in Q4, marking its eighth consecutive quarter of profit growth [2] - Other notable performers included Nvidia, which rose nearly 3%, and SanDisk, which increased over 7% [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks faced a downturn, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping 0.61% [3] - Major declines were seen in Tencent Music (down over 6%), Century Internet (down 5%), and Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (down over 4%) [4][5] - Conversely, some stocks like Hesai Technology and Canadian Solar saw gains of over 5% and 3%, respectively [4] Precious Metals and Oil Prices - Precious metals experienced a decline, with silver dropping over 3% and gold falling below $4,620 per ounce [5] - Oil prices also saw a sharp decline, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude both falling over 4%, with WTI dropping below $60 [6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market showed a downward trend, with Bitcoin nearing $96,240 and Ethereum down 0.19% [7] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating significant market volatility [6] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 recorded 198,000, the lowest since late November, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [7] - Federal Reserve officials continue to discuss interest rate policies amid high inflation, indicating a focus on balancing employment and inflation concerns [8]

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global stock has been one of the worst performers in the S&P 500, primarily due to its own actions [1] Group 1 - The poor performance of Coinbase Global stock is attributed to internal factors rather than external market conditions [1]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.12%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.80% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX down by 0.23%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.43%, France's CAC40 down by 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.53% [1] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil has decreased by 3.42%, trading at $59.90 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 3.37%, priced at $64.28 per barrel [2] Market News - The US Senate Banking Committee has postponed the discussion on a key cryptocurrency regulatory proposal after Coinbase withdrew its support, indicating ongoing bipartisan negotiations [3] - PIMCO, managing $2.2 trillion in assets, is reducing its US asset holdings due to the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration, aiming to diversify its investment strategy [3] - President Trump has indicated a delay in responding to Iran, which has led to a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $65, reducing the risk of military action and oil supply disruptions [3] Precious Metals - Analysts from ANZ predict that geopolitical tensions and loose monetary policies will support gold prices, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in the latter half of the year [4] - Silver prices experienced a significant drop of over 7% due to Trump's announcement to delay tariffs on key mineral imports, leading to a panic sell-off among speculative investors [5] Company News - TSMC reported Q4 net profit significantly exceeding expectations, with revenue of NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately $33.67 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a gross margin of 62.3% [6][7] - BlackRock's Q4 earnings surpassed expectations, with revenue growing by 23% to $7 billion and assets under management reaching a record $14 trillion [7] - ASML's market capitalization surpassed $500 billion following TSMC's strong 2026 capital expenditure guidance, reflecting optimism in AI-related spending [8] - Ericsson plans to cut approximately 1,600 jobs in Sweden as part of a broader cost-cutting initiative to improve profit margins in a challenging telecom equipment market [9] - Google is enhancing its AI tool Gemini by integrating it with its suite of applications, aiming to provide personalized services and differentiate itself from competitors like OpenAI [10]

Group 1 - Zhipu (02513) saw a rise of over 5% after announcing a collaboration with Huawei to open-source a new image generation model, GLM-Image, which is the first SOTA multimodal model fully trained on domestic chips [1] - Yuanxu Technology (08637) resumed trading with a nearly 14% increase, currently up 9.44%, as it considers dual primary listings on the Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges to enhance its corporate image and shareholder base [1] - Weichai Power (02338) increased by over 4%, with a month-to-date gain exceeding 20%, as it announced the completion of laboratory research on industry-leading solid-state batteries and is accelerating SOFC capacity enhancement to meet customer demand [1] Group 2 - Woan Robotics (06600) rose over 8.27% after launching the humanoid intelligent robot "onero" designed for real family scenarios at CES [2] - Zhejiang Shibao (01057) increased by over 4.8% following the release of a plan to promote autonomous driving technology innovation and industrial competitiveness [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) fell over 8.24% after announcing a strategic adjustment to focus resources on the Mt Bundy gold mine project and terminate plans for a spin-off listing of its gold business [2] Group 3 - Lithium battery stocks continued to rise, with Hongqiao Group (08137) up 4.17%, Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 5.16%, Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 3.94%, and CATL (03750) up 0.83%, following an announcement to reduce the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1 [3] - Valiant Pharmaceuticals (09887) saw a nearly 1% increase after announcing that its dual-specific antibody LBL-024 received fast track designation from the FDA for treating pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma [3] - Jinyu Group (02009) dropped over 6.9% after projecting a net loss of 900 million to 1.2 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [4] Group 4 - SF Express (06936) and Jitu Express (01519) opened higher, with SF Express up 2.26% and Jitu Express up 0.26%, after announcing a strategic mutual shareholding agreement involving an investment of 8.3 billion HKD [4] - In the US stock market, AI application software stocks experienced declines, with Applovin (APP.US) down 7.61% and Shopify (SHOP.US) down 5.93% [5] - Bilibili (BILI.US) rose 6.18% after its COO addressed a marketing conference, highlighting strong consumer demand that has driven advertising revenue growth [5] Group 5 - Cryptocurrency-related stocks saw gains, with Strategy (MSTR.US) up 3.66% and Coinbase (COIN.US) up 1.25%, as Bitcoin prices reached a two-month high [6] - Alibaba (BABA.US) increased by 1.73% after reports indicated that its Qianwen app surpassed 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch [6]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency investors are significantly increasing their investments in Bitcoin ETFs, with approximately $760 million in net inflows recorded on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day inflow since October of the previous year [1] - The Bitcoin ETF-Fidelity (FBTC.US) was a major contributor, attracting $351 million in a single day [1] - Despite facing outflows due to a price drop in October, Bitcoin ETFs have been favored by both institutional and retail investors for providing easy access to the digital asset market [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, surpassing the $97,000 mark [1] - Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that continued inflows into ETFs could provide strong support for Bitcoin prices [1] - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, have also performed well, with a single-day increase of 6% and a year-to-date increase of 13%, alongside $130 million in inflows into Ethereum ETFs [2]

热点聚焦 1、2026年1月14日，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至 100%。 2、财政部13日下午会同有关部门，在北京以线上线下相结合的方式召开财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策全国推进工作视频会议。会议深入贯彻中央经济工 作会议精神，落实国务院常务会议部署，布置推进财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策工作，要求各级财政部门要会同相关部门和经办机构完整准确把握财政金 融协同促内需一揽子政策要求，简化流程环节，强化执行跟踪，切实推动政策落地见效。 大型科技股普跌，英伟达跌1.44%，特斯拉跌1.79%，微软跌2.4%，亚马逊跌2.45%，Meta跌2.47%。 热门中概股也多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.23%，携程跌超17%，拼多多跌近4%，哔哩哔哩涨超6%。 3、央行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元买断式逆回购操 作，期限为6个月（181天）。 4、保险资金长期投资改革试点再迎增量资金。中基协信息显示，鸿鹄基金三期3号于近期成立并完成备案， ...

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency investors are significantly increasing their investments in Bitcoin ETFs, with approximately $760 million in net inflows recorded on a single day, marking the largest inflow since October of the previous year [1] - The Bitcoin ETF-Fidelity (FBTC.US) was a major contributor, attracting $351 million in a single day [1] - Bitcoin prices have shown signs of recovery, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, surpassing the $97,000 mark [1] Group 2 - Since their launch two years ago, spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over hundreds of billions in investments, benefiting from rising Bitcoin prices and increasing mainstream acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry [3] - Following the market crash in October, these products faced outflow pressures, leading to Bitcoin's first annual decline since 2022, with a total drop of over 6% for the year [3] - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, also experienced gains, with a single-day increase of 6% and a year-to-date rise of 13%, alongside $130 million in inflows for Ethereum ETFs [3]

Core Insights - The weekly update focuses on the performance of major cryptocurrencies, specifically bitcoin and ether, which are recognized as high-risk investments [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin and ether are highlighted as the largest cryptocurrencies by market share, indicating their significant presence in the market [1] - Both cryptocurrencies are characterized by foundational differences, which may influence investor behavior and market dynamics [1]

周三，部分加密货币概念股盘中走强，Strategy(MSTR.US)涨逾9%，Bitmine Immersion Technologies(BMNR.US)涨逾7%，Strive(ASST.US)涨逾4%，Coinbase(COIN.US)涨逾2%。消息面上，今 日，比特币价格触及两个月来的高点，一度上涨2.4%，达到96,348美元，创下自11月16日以来的最高盘 中水平。第二大代币以太坊也一度大涨逾5%。 比特币2025年以低迷态势收官，全年累计跌幅逾6%，交易区间狭窄。但1月该代币显露出了潜在突破迹 象，交易员认为它有可能在资产类别竞争中占据优势。Arctic Digital的研究主管Justin d'Anethan表 示："中期来看，我认为投资者可能会基于'追赶黄金行情'的逻辑，向比特币分配更多资金——而目前 其他风险资产也表现强劲。" ...