英大证券研究所证券研究报告 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周二晨报提醒，虽然周一 A 股延续强势，不过，仍存结构性隐忧。驱动行情 的是"政策预期"与"情绪修复"，而非扎实的"基本面改善"。上行中可能还有震荡， 市场走势如我们预期，周二沪深三大指数涨跌不一，个股涨少跌多，整体维持弱 势震荡格局。 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 密切关注两大因素 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 密切跟踪美联储议息会议与国内重要会议的进展，根据政策信号动态调整持 仓结构：若出现超预期利好，可适度提升仓位参与结构性机会；若政策不及预期 或海外风险升温，则应进一步收缩防线，聚焦核心资产。 操作上，轻指数，重个股。踏准板块轮动节奏，采取均衡配置、高抛低吸或 是占优策略。无论是科技成长方向（半导体芯片、泛 AI 主题及机器人行业等）， 还是顺周期行业（光伏、电池、储能、化工、煤炭、有色等），亦或是红利股（银 行、公用事业、"大象股"等），尽量选择有业绩支持的标的逢低布局，远离缺乏业 绩支撑的高 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，五个方向选股，优先确定性，自下而上于成长和困境反转中 捕捉估值切换收益，头部零食企业、优质连锁零售业态兼具"新且快"，迭代能力强，增速横向比较更领 先；低位布局积极出清的，2026年内出现拐点可能性大的白酒、乳业以及大餐饮板块，高度重视保健品 大健康领域，银发经济基本盘稳固，年轻化新消费人群扩容，品类创新迭代积极，主要公司弹性体现在 2026年。重视长生命周期与高壁垒生意龙头，以及深度价值（稳定格局，稳健经营，稳定分红）标的。 风险提示：宏观如继续承压对消费的传导，需求探底和修复不及预期，原材料价格的加大波动，食安风 险，行业内产能扩张和竞争加剧风险，估值切换收益提前兑现使得2026收益空间缩小的风险等。 以CPI指标为例，2020年9月份以来持续低位运行，其中2021年以来食品、烟、酒整体长期处于换档降 速通道，2023年中以来食品和酒类价格指数更是呈现连续负增长状态。宏观消费指标社会消费品零售总 额显示，2021年8月以来月度同比增长居于2%-5%的低速区间。结合餐饮和食品及酒类代表性上市公司 经营表现，消费持续承压已久。2024Q3以来"提振消费"被屡次提及，一方 ...

银发赛道成教培企业破局关键 作者｜AgeClub吕娆炜 前言 近期，昂立教育宣布以3800万元收购一家中老年旅行社上海乐游誉途国际旅行社有限公司（下文统称"上海乐游"），一经披露便在资本市场掀起热议。 这笔看似小额但溢价高达516%的收购背后，是教培行业主动拥抱银发经济的缩影。作为一家上市企业，昂立以教育培训为主营业务，涉及K12素质教 育、职业教育、国际与基础教育等领域。 今年以来，昂立教育成功孵化中老年兴趣文娱品牌"快乐公社"，此次收购上海乐游，可以视作昂立加速进入银发领域的重要一步。 将这起收购放到宏观背景来看，并非孤立事件。 伴随我国人口老龄化进程加速，银发群体的消费能力与消费场景正在不断升级。从传统的医疗康养、养老服务，延伸到兴趣教育与文旅消费，形成了企业 眼中可规模化的市场机会。 正是在这样的外部想象空间下，以昂立教育为代表的传统教培企业，开始尝试将其在家庭与社区的流量优势延伸到银发用户群体。 01 上市教培公司求变， 瞄准银发旅游赛道 银发人群的文娱需求和消费潜力，正在被更多企业、平台所看到。 尤其是在一二线城市，这一人群的活跃程度及支付能力均呈现明显增长趋势，使得教育机构与文旅企业不约而同将其 ...

Group 1: Consumer Market Dynamics - The tax data from the State Taxation Administration indicates a positive shift in China's consumer market, driven by various consumption-boosting policies and new consumption scenarios [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales of communication devices and daily household appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [1] - The sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles also showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% during the same period [1] Group 2: Sports and Health Consumption - The sports and health sectors are experiencing heightened activity, with sports event-related economic output increasing significantly, leading to a multiplier effect on consumption [2] - From January to November, the retail sales of sports exhibition services and sports goods grew by 29.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Health-related consumption is also on the rise, with sales of health auxiliary treatment equipment and health consulting services increasing by 14.1% and 11.9% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The cultural and tourism sectors are witnessing a surge in new business models and scenarios, enhancing consumer vitality [2] - Sales revenue from artistic creation and performance, as well as film screenings, increased by 15.6% and 19.1% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [2] - The integration of tourism with cultural activities has led to significant growth in related services, with travel agency services, scenic spots, and leisure activities seeing year-on-year increases of 10.8%, 29.4%, and 16.6%, respectively [2] Group 4: Demographic Consumption Trends - The elderly and young consumer groups are showing substantial consumption potential, with the elderly market projected to exceed 100 trillion yuan by 2050 [3] - From January to November, spending on elderly care services, social assistance, and nursing home services grew by 33.6%, 9.6%, and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Among younger consumers, spending on digital cultural services, particularly those related to emotional value and social attributes, increased by 16.5% year-on-year [3] Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The State Taxation Administration plans to continue implementing tax and fee policies that support consumption, aiming to optimize tax payment services and stimulate domestic demand [3]

Core Insights - The silver education sector is emerging as a significant growth segment within the silver economy, with the market size reaching 25.6 billion yuan and expected to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2028 [1] - Traditional education companies are shifting their focus from K-12 and adult education to cater to the silver population, recognizing the long-term commercial potential of this demographic [1][2] Group 1: Transformation of Education Companies - Traditional education institutions are transitioning from being "remedial institutions" to "silver lifestyle service providers," focusing on middle-aged and elderly interest education and cultural tourism services [2][4] - Anlong Education has initiated a "silver economy strategy," acquiring a travel agency to provide personalized travel services for active seniors, integrating education, interests, tourism, and social interactions [2][4] - New Oriental has accelerated its investment in silver education and cultural tourism, with its new business segments showing significant revenue growth, particularly among middle-aged and elderly audiences [4] Group 2: Adult Education Platforms - Adult education platforms are restructuring their business models to include silver interest education as a core growth area, moving away from traditional degree-oriented training [7][8] - Shangde's non-degree business now accounts for 78% of total revenue, indicating a shift towards a composite adult education model focused on skills and interests [8] - The platform has over one million paid silver users, with a course repurchase rate exceeding 60%, highlighting the growing demand for silver interest education [8] Group 3: Vertical Platforms and AI Integration - Vertical platforms and AI education companies are redefining the silver education experience by focusing on long-term companionship and technology support rather than standardized courses [9][10] - Pear Flower Education has positioned itself as a cultural and artistic education platform for seniors, utilizing AI technology to enhance learning experiences and provide real-time feedback [9][10] - Interest Island employs a "three-teacher model" to create a supportive learning environment for seniors, emphasizing long-term engagement and community interaction [12] Group 4: Long-term Strategic Importance - The silver education sector is viewed as a long-term strategic initiative rather than a short-term business addition, reflecting a response to demographic changes and evolving educational needs [14][15] - Companies are re-evaluating their growth strategies to include lifelong learning services for seniors, moving from transactional course offerings to a focus on community, service, and long-term engagement [14][15] - The success of silver education initiatives will depend on the quality of services, trust relationships, and the ability to adapt to the learning rhythms of older adults [14][15]

Economic Development - The year 2025 is significant for China's modernization process, with a focus on high-quality development and achieving major economic and social goals [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined systematic deployments for economic work in 2025, emphasizing the development of various economies such as the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," "silver economy," and others [1][2] First Launch Economy - The first launch economy is gaining traction, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu enhancing policy support to attract new brands and stores, becoming a key driver for domestic demand [2] - Chengdu has seen the establishment of 631 first stores in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a growing trend towards first launches as a lifestyle choice [4][5] Ice and Snow Economy - The ice and snow economy is evolving from a seasonal focus to a year-round industry, with the scale expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [2] - Harbin's Ice and Snow World is under construction, featuring innovative attractions and a focus on diverse shopping and experiential dining to enhance consumer engagement [5][6] Silver Economy - The silver economy is expanding with new service models for the elderly, including specialized travel services that cater to their needs, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards quality and personalization [6][7] - In Yunnan, the elderly tourism market has seen significant growth, with over 80% of travelers being aged 60 and above [7] Platform Economy - The platform economy is transitioning from a "what to produce" model to a "what is needed" approach, enhancing consumer satisfaction through direct connections between platforms and manufacturers [8][9] - E-commerce platforms have facilitated significant growth in agricultural product sales, with rural online retail increasing by 7.5% year-on-year [9][10] County Economy - The county economy is thriving with initiatives like "Hundred Villages Thousand Lodgings," which promote eco-tourism and local agricultural products, leading to increased income for local residents [10][11] - In Luanchuan County, the integration of tourism and agriculture has resulted in a substantial rise in visitor numbers and revenue, with a focus on sustainable development [11] Marine Economy - The marine economy is advancing with innovations in shipbuilding and marine engineering, focusing on green technologies and zero-carbon emissions [12][13] - The Qingdao West Coast New Area has established a marine industry base that has seen a 16.9% increase in output value year-on-year [13] Bay Area Economy - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is fostering innovation and collaboration, with companies leveraging local resources for technological advancements [14] - The synergy between Hong Kong's research capabilities and the Pearl River Delta's industrial strengths is facilitating the commercialization of scientific achievements [14]

走进康复辅具保障服务站，辅助器具维修管理员王楷鹏正在为运动员维修轮椅，他右腿佩戴假肢却行动 自如，蹲地检查刹车、扶手、按钮等部件的动作行云流水。 "我自己也穿了假肢，比较清楚他们穿得是否舒服，或者哪里出现故障。"王楷鹏既是辅具使用者，也是 有20多年经验的广东辅具行业的从业者。 作为德林义肢矫型康复器材（深圳）有限公司（以下简称"德林义肢"）辅具服务技术组长，他见证了企 业走向智能化的道路：从早年以假肢矫形器等辅具生产为主，到如今将自主研发的3D技术、智能仿生 技术应用于产品，为残障人士提供更智能的解决方案。 当前，广东康复产业已形成"千亿级辅具+百亿级服务"的格局。残特奥会正是广东科技助残的超级场 景，AI导盲眼镜、脑控轮椅、智能爬楼梯机器人等众多科技助残产品服务赛事，并且均来自本地企 业。 广东辅助器具产业发展的背后，是场景支撑与产业基础的双重赋能。残疾人康复服务普及与银发经济崛 起，为辅具产品提供应用与迭代的土壤。粤港澳大湾区成熟的制造业体系与强劲的科创实力，则为辅具 产业向新材料、智能化、信息化升级提供有力支撑。 12月9日，全国第十二届残疾人运动会暨第九届特殊奥林匹克运动会田径项目在广东奥林匹克体育 ...

Economic Development - The year 2025 is significant for China's modernization process, with a focus on high-quality development and achieving major economic and social goals [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined systematic plans for 2025, emphasizing the development of various economies such as the "first release economy," "ice and snow economy," "silver-haired economy," "platform economy," "county economy," and "marine economy" [1][2] First Release Economy - The first release economy is gaining traction, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu enhancing policy support to attract new brands and stores, thus tapping into domestic demand [1][3] - Chengdu has seen a significant increase in first stores, with 631 new stores established in the first three quarters of the year, making the concept of "catching the first release" a new lifestyle trend [5] Ice and Snow Economy - The ice and snow economy is evolving from a seasonal focus to year-round activities, with the industry expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][6] - Harbin is enhancing its ice and snow attractions with innovative features, including AI interactions and diverse shopping experiences, to boost consumer engagement during the ice and snow season [6][7] Silver-Haired Economy - The silver-haired economy is expanding, with tailored services for the elderly, such as specialized travel experiences and community engagement activities, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards quality and personalization [1][8] - In Yunnan, over 80% of tourists on specialized silver-haired travel trains are aged 60 and above, indicating the growing importance of this demographic in the tourism market [8][9] Platform Economy - The platform economy is transitioning from a "what to sell" model to a "what is needed" approach, enhancing consumer satisfaction through direct connections between platforms and manufacturers [1][10] - E-commerce platforms have significantly boosted domestic demand and facilitated foreign trade, with notable growth in agricultural product sales and a 5.5% increase in industry e-commerce transaction volumes [10][11] County Economy - The county economy is experiencing rapid growth, with initiatives like "Hundred Villages, Thousand Stays" promoting eco-tourism and local agricultural products, leading to increased income for rural communities [1][12] - In Luanchuan County, the integration of tourism and local agriculture has resulted in high occupancy rates for rural accommodations and significant revenue growth for local farmers [12][13] Marine Economy - The marine economy is advancing with a focus on green technologies, such as ammonia fuel for ships, aiming for zero carbon emissions in the shipping industry [1][14] - The marine engineering sector in Qingdao is witnessing robust growth, with a reported 16.9% increase in output value for the shipbuilding industry in the first ten months of the year [14][15] Bay Area Economy - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is fostering innovation and collaboration, with companies leveraging local resources for technological advancements and market expansion [1][16] - The synergy between Hong Kong's research capabilities and the manufacturing strengths of the Pearl River Delta is enhancing the commercialization of scientific innovations [16][17]

Group 1: Economic Development Trends - The year 2025 is significant for China's modernization process, with a focus on high-quality development and achieving major economic and social goals [10] - Key economic sectors highlighted include the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," "silver economy," platform economy, county economy, marine economy, and bay area economy, all of which are experiencing growth [11][12] Group 2: First Launch Economy - The first launch economy is gaining traction, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu enhancing policy support to attract flagship stores and brands, becoming a vital driver for domestic demand [11] - Chengdu's first flagship store of the Swiss sports brand On opened in April, attracting significant customer traffic and showcasing a unique shopping experience [15][16] Group 3: Ice and Snow Economy - The construction of the Harbin Ice and Snow World is underway, with nearly 10,000 workers involved, and the park is set to cover 1.2 million square meters [17] - The ice and snow economy is evolving from a seasonal to a year-round industry, with projections indicating the industry scale will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [11][18] Group 4: Silver Economy - The silver economy is expanding, with tailored services for the elderly, such as the "Starry·Lanmei" themed tourist train, which caters to the needs of senior travelers [19] - The elderly demographic is becoming a significant force in the tourism market, with over 80% of travelers on certain routes being aged 60 and above [19][20] Group 5: Platform Economy - The platform economy is shifting from a "what to produce" model to a "what is needed" approach, enhancing consumer experience through direct subsidies and one-stop services [21][22] - E-commerce platforms are driving domestic demand growth and facilitating foreign trade transformation, with significant sales increases during promotional events [23] Group 6: County Economy - The county economy is thriving, with initiatives like "Hundred Villages, Thousand Lodgings" promoting rural tourism and local industries, leading to increased income for residents [24][25] - The county's tourism revenue reached 11.265 billion yuan, with over 15.45 million visitors recorded in the first ten months of the year [25] Group 7: Marine Economy - The marine economy is advancing with the delivery of the "Guoxin 1号2—2," a large smart fishing vessel, which will conduct year-round farming trials [26][27] - The focus on green and low-carbon initiatives is reshaping the shipping industry, with a significant portion of new vessels being designed for zero-carbon emissions [27] Group 8: Bay Area Economy - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is fostering innovation and collaboration, with companies leveraging regional strengths for technological advancements [29][30] - The integration of research and industry within the bay area is enhancing the commercialization of scientific achievements, creating a robust ecosystem for startups [30]

Group 1: Consumer Market Dynamics - The tax data from the State Taxation Administration indicates a positive shift in China's consumer market, driven by various consumption-boosting policies and new consumption scenarios [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales of communication devices and daily household appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively, from January to November [1] - The sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles also showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% during the same period [1] Group 2: Sports and Health Consumption - The sports and health consumption sectors are experiencing heightened activity, with sports event-related economic output increasing significantly [2] - From January to November, the retail sales of sports exhibition services and sports goods grew by 29.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Health-related consumption is also on the rise, with sales of health auxiliary treatment equipment and health consulting services increasing by 14.1% and 11.9% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Consumption - The cultural and tourism sectors are witnessing a surge in new business models and consumption vitality, with significant year-on-year growth in sales revenue for artistic performances and film screenings at 15.6% and 19.1%, respectively [2] - The integration of cultural and tourism industries has led to a boom in immersive and scenario-based tourism consumption, with travel agency services and scenic spots seeing sales revenue growth of 10.8% and 29.4% year-on-year [2] - The rise of homestays, which combine regional characteristics with personalized services, has resulted in a 13.1% year-on-year increase in sales revenue [2] Group 4: Demographic Consumption Trends - The silver economy is gaining traction, with the elderly population's consumption needs driving diverse growth in elder care services, which saw increases of 33.6%, 9.6%, and 14.6% in related service revenues year-on-year [3] - The younger demographic is also showing significant consumption potential, particularly in emotional value-driven purchases, with sales of digital cultural services related to gaming and animation increasing by 16.5% year-on-year [3] - The State Taxation Administration plans to continue implementing supportive tax policies and optimizing tax payment services to further stimulate domestic demand and enhance consumption vitality [3]