宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

企业盈利预期改善 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利最新发布的研报指出，尽管近期美国宣布了新的关税政策，但美股仍表 现出较强的韧性。而在当前环境下，得益于财政支出法案的推动及强劲的盈利前景，美国大盘股极具吸 引力。 报告还指出，企业盈利修正幅度的显著改善(从4月中旬的-25%升至当前的+3%)将成为积极推动力，在 贸易与宏观不确定性持续的背景下支撑市场，尤其是金融和工业板块表现突出。此外，随着财报季临 近，盈利修正的分化现象加剧，这将为个股选择提供有利环境。 关税政策下美股韧性凸显 展望第二季度，该行分析师预计标普500指数的每股收益预计同比增长4%，销售额增长3%，其中"七巨 头"的净利润增速预计达14%，远高于其他公司的-3%。 以Michael J. Wilson为首的大摩策略师表示，美股对关税政策反应相对温和的主要原因有三：其一，结 合受影响国家范围及现行豁免政策，标普500指数成分股公司的进口成本敞口目前相对有限，例如符合 美墨加协定(USMCA)的墨西哥进口商品仍享有豁免(有待进一步明确);其二，市场参与者普遍认为，近 期对多个贸易伙伴宣布的更高关税税率并非最终税率，谈判仍在持续;其三，尤其是消费品领 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October, and OPEC will complete a 2.2 - billion - barrel supply restoration in September [3]. - Globally, oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories rose significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Trump is pressuring Russia to stop the war and may impose "secondary tariffs" on countries that purchase Russian oil. He also plans to supply Ukraine with more weapons. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia [3]. - Analysts believe that Trump's subsequent statement on Russia may not have a significant impact on crude oil. Previous sanctions had little impact on oil flows, and supplying weapons through NATO is unlikely to have a significant impact on oil supply [3]. - Trump's tariff policy is unlikely to affect US imports of gasoline and diesel. Energy products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are expected to be exempted, and the new tariffs on Canada and Mexico will not cover goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, including energy [3]. 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the US during the week of July 4th, crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase) [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - During the week of July 4th, the EIA gasoline inventory in the US was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [3]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased this week, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [3]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. Policy - wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October [3]. - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories increased significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - **Nickel**: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].

Group 1 - Copper prices have increased by 12% since last Tuesday, while copper inventories have decreased by 1.5% [1] - The U.S. relies on imports for half of its refined copper, with 90% coming from other regions in the Americas, primarily Chile [1] - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports aims to boost domestic copper supply and reduce reliance on foreign sources [1][2] Group 2 - Following the tariff announcement, U.S. copper prices surged by 15%, while prices in the UK and China actually declined [2] - The expectation of the tariff has led companies to build inventory to avoid future costs associated with the tariff [2] - The response of copper supply to these tariffs is expected to be slower compared to gold, indicating different fundamental factors will drive copper prices in the coming months [3]

近期，多数美联储官员认为本月底将维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%至4.5%不变。6月会议上，美联储官员预 计今年晚些时候可能降息两次，投资者则普遍预计9月会议将开启降息。不过，也有少数官员主张更早降息，认为 特朗普政府不断变化的进口关税政策对物价的影响可忽略不计。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周就表示，货币政 策可能过于紧缩，可考虑7月降息，且强调其利率观点与政治无关。 尽管特朗普一直向美联储施压要求尽快降息，甚至曾批评鲍威尔工作"糟糕"，但近日在被问及是否会解雇鲍威尔 时，特朗普称无相关计划。美联储官员则始终专注于经济数据本身。 哈马克称，当前利率已非常接近中性利率水平，经济展现出韧性且运行良好。在她看来，除非劳动力市场出现明 显疲软，否则降息缺乏依据。目前通胀率虽从疫情严重时超7%降至3%以下，但持续在该区间徘徊，未达美联储 2%的目标，这是暂不考虑降息的主因。她强调，需等待已出台新政策对通胀的影响进一步明晰。 对于7月29日至30日举行的FOMC会议，哈马克秉持开放态度，表示将依据经济数据和讨论方向做决策。但她明确 指出，就业方面已达成目标，通胀却未达标，因此有必要维持限制性货币政策，以确保通胀降至2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]

9号当天，日本首相石破茂在一场街头演讲中，谈及美国对日本加征关税一事，直言强调，"这是一场关乎国家利益的战斗，我们决不能被小瞧"。即便美国 是日本的盟友，在关税谈判中，日本政府也必须理直气壮的表明自身立场，守护日本必须守护的东西。从石破茂的这番讲话就不难看出，日本方面显然没有 在关税谈判上让步的意思。 为什么石破茂敢这样跟特朗普政府硬刚呢？简单分析来看，主要有两点：首先，特朗普所要的东西太多，并且直接关乎日本的经济命脉，石破茂政府很难做 出让步。比如，特朗普政府想要日本在汽车出口和农业上做出让步，这一点石破茂政府就很难办到。目前，汽车产业是日本经济的主要支撑产业，如果石破 茂政府任由美国在汽车上加征关税，那对于日本来说，受影响的绝不止汽车这一个行业。另外，农业更是日本执政党的基本盘，这关乎到石破茂政府的政权 稳定，他就更不可能在这件事上让步了。要知道，本月20号，日本就将进行参议院选举，若石破茂向美国让步，他的首相位置很可能保不住。 面对特朗普的关税威胁，日本还有2张"王牌"可打，这2张"王牌"是什么？特朗普急于对贸易伙伴加征关税，这背后又说明了什么？ 近日，特朗普对他的关税政策进行一番调整，主要包括三个方面 ...

部分国家与地区也开始讨论对美实施反制关税的举措 策略摘要 近期，关税政策所引发的连锁反应仍在继续，特朗普称，如果俄罗斯在50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议，将对俄罗 斯征收100%二级关税。此外有美国官员表示，特朗普指的是若50天内无法达成协议，除了对俄征收100%关税，亦 会对购买俄油的国家实施二级制裁。而其他国家方面，巴西副总统否认巴西要求美国将关税降低至30%以及推迟关 税期限90天的消息。巴西将公布有关美国关税的对等反制法令。另外欧盟准备对720亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 此外，在特朗普最新的贸易税威胁之后，欧洲央行将在下周讨论比6月份预想的更负面的情况。欧洲央行仍料在7 月24日的会议上维持利率不变。关于降息的讨论仍被推迟到9月。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-14，沪金主力合约开于777.62元/克，收于781.40元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.01%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于777.07元/克，收于778.04元/克，较昨日午后收盘下降0.05%。 2025-07-14，沪银主力合约开于9118.00元/千克，收于9207.00元/千克，较 ...