早上好，先来看下重要消息。 巴基斯坦首都发生自杀式炸弹袭击，已致12死27伤 分析人士认为，美国政府若败诉，将被迫退还巨额关税，同时可能援引其他法律重新实施部分关税，这 项裁决将对美国政治、经济及全球贸易产生举足轻重的影响。 环球时报援引法新社等媒体11日报道，当天巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡发生自杀式炸弹袭击，已造成12人死 亡，27人受伤。 巴基斯坦内政部长穆赫辛·纳克维表示，一名自杀式炸弹袭击者在伊斯兰堡一家地方法院大门外的一辆 警车附近引爆了身上的炸弹。 据报道，在伊斯兰堡发生自杀式爆炸事件后，巴基斯坦国防部长赫瓦贾·阿西夫在社交媒体上表示，巴 基斯坦正"处于战争状态"，当天的袭击敲响了"警钟"。他还指责阿富汗方面未能阻止对巴基斯坦的恐怖 袭击，并称巴基斯坦有充分的力量对此作出回应。 巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里在社交媒体上称，强烈谴责首都伊斯兰堡自杀式爆炸事件，向遇难者家属表示深 切哀悼，祈祷伤者早日康复，并向执法机构致敬。 恐怖组织"巴基斯坦塔利班"宣称对此次爆炸事件负责，并在一份声明中称此次袭击目标是司法官员。 特朗普：推翻关税将致"毁灭性打击" 据央视新闻消息，特朗普11日在社交媒体上表示，若最高法院作出废除 ...

特朗普发出重大警告！ 美国总统特朗普当地时间周一警告，如果美国最高法院裁定他在全球范围内实施的全面关税政策无效， 美国将面临经济和国家安全灾难。 特朗普称，如果法院裁定征税违法并须退回已征关税，涉及金额将超过2万亿美元的关税收入与投资。 同日，特朗普还警告称，所有空中交通管制员须立即返岗，任何不返回的人都将受到严厉的"处罚"。 来看详细报道！ 涉及关税！特朗普警告 据路透社消息，当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普说，如果美国最高法院裁定其动用紧急权力法对几乎所 有贸易伙伴加征全面关税的行为违宪，美国将面临经济与国家安全危机。 特朗普称，他的政府计划利用关税红利向中低收入的美国人每人发放2000美元，并将剩余收入用于降低 美国债务。 特朗普还在社交媒体发文称，如果法院裁定征税违法并须退回已征关税，涉及金额将超过2万亿美元的 关税收入与投资。"他们给出的数字不对……如果我们在最高法院败诉，将会造成经济灾难，也会造成 国家安全灾难。"特朗普说道。 巴雷特大法官说，法院在处理已缴纳被裁定为非法关税的美国进口商的退款事宜时，"可能会一团糟"。 目前尚不清楚最高法院何时会做出裁决，以及如果特朗普败诉，企业是否有权获得迄今为止已 ...

特朗普的关税战如火如荼，然而，随着其政策的推行，局势似乎朝着一个更加复杂和危险的方向发展。当前，他所发起的这场全球性关税斗争，不 仅没有让主要对手中国屈服，反而可能使美国面临高达2万亿美元的赔偿风险。这一数字极具震撼性，足以让任何一个国家的财政状况为之大动干 戈。 例如，美国与沙特签署了高达6000亿美元的战略经济协议，与卡塔尔的协议超过2400亿美元，从日本获得的投资承诺为5500亿美元，而韩国的承诺 则为3500亿美元。这些协议虽然表面看似独立，但实际上与特朗普的关税政策有着不可分割的关系。如果特朗普失去关税这一"杀手锏"，相应的外资 投资也可能会大幅缩水。换句话说，特朗普想要的其实是通过威逼来实现"投资"，而失去这一底牌，便可能引发一系列的连锁反应。 然而，这样的警告背后，真相到底如何呢？ 美国现任财长贝森特已经透露，若最高法院判定特朗普的关税合法性存疑，美国政府或将在未来退还关税，预计的归还金额甚至可能在500亿到2000 亿美元之间。尽管这个金额已经不小，但与特朗普所言的"2万亿美元"相比，简直不值一提。我们不禁要问：这个巨额赔偿的来源究竟是什么？ 特朗普提到，这两万亿的损失不仅仅来源于关税收入，还 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court recently held a significant hearing regarding tariffs, with both conservative and liberal justices questioning Trump's tariff policies [1][3][5] - The core issue revolves around whether the President has overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs, traditionally a power granted to Congress [3][7][9] Group 1: Economic Impact - Tariffs have generated substantial revenue for the U.S. government, totaling $223.9 billion by the end of October, an increase of $142.2 billion compared to the previous year [9] - However, major corporations like Ford and General Motors are facing significant profit declines due to increased costs from tariffs, with Ford reporting a 35% drop in net profit and claiming an additional $2 billion in costs due to tariffs [9][11] - Small businesses are also struggling, with many owners expressing that continued tariffs could lead to closures, and the National Retail Federation reported an average 8% increase in retail prices due to tariffs [9][11] Group 2: Global Trade Implications - The World Trade Organization has indicated that if the Supreme Court rules tariffs illegal, it could disrupt existing trade agreements and delay negotiations by 6 to 12 months [11][12] - Trump's tariff policy has been a key negotiating tool, leading to concessions from countries like the EU, which agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy [12][14] - The uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court's decision is causing global trade to stall, as businesses hesitate to make orders and countries delay negotiations [14][16] Group 3: Legal and Political Context - The hearing highlighted the tension between executive and legislative powers, questioning the legality of the President's unilateral tariff decisions [3][16] - The Supreme Court's composition, with a conservative majority, has not guaranteed support for Trump's policies, indicating a potential shift in judicial interpretation of executive power [14][16] - The outcome of this case could redefine the boundaries of presidential authority and impact global trade rules significantly [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS shows a continuous upward trend, and the freight rate range has seasonally shifted upwards again. Risk - takers can pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, suggesting light - position participation or waiting and seeing [3]. - In the short term, the main contract is retracting while the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents Market Data - **11月3日**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - **11月7日**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. - **11月10日**: The main contract 2512 closed at 1778.2, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 20,400 lots, and an open interest of 26,700 lots, an increase of 793 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), and composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52), and composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try [4]. - **Long - term strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. - There are geopolitical conflict events, extreme weather, and sharp fluctuations in the external crude oil market that need attention [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS shows a continuous upward trend, with the freight rate range seasonally shifting upwards again. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or observe [2][3]. - The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 3, SCFIS (European route) was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, NCFI (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, SCFI published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, CCFI (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 45.9, the service PMI initial value was 51.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 49.7 [2]. - In the US in October, the S&P Global service PMI initial value was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 52.2, and the composite PMI initial value was 54.8 [3]. Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1778.2, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 20,400 lots and an open interest of 26,700 lots, an increase of 793 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, it is recommended to temporarily observe or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The global market trading focus will shift from Trump's election victory to preparations for the midterm elections, with the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections directly impacting the political landscape for Trump and the Republican Party [2]. Group 1: Midterm Elections - Trump's 2026 Policy Line - The midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they may represent the last significant electoral battle of his political career, with a high likelihood of increased political resistance if he loses [4][22]. - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate over the last 20 elections [16][20]. - The significance of the midterm elections is heightened for Trump, as a defeat could severely limit his political ambitions during the final years of his presidency [21][22]. Group 2: Trade Policy - Continued Uncertainty and Conflict - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain unpredictable, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a means to rally voter support and shift internal political pressures outward [4][33]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs may lead to alternative legal strategies for implementing tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable [34][38]. - The anticipated increase in tariff revenue could help alleviate fiscal pressures and support Trump's broader economic agenda leading up to the midterm elections [47]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - More Rate Cuts and Lower Credit Quality - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is likely to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, with projections of at least four rate cuts by the end of next year [5][61]. - Lower interest rates are seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and supporting stock markets, particularly in light of the negative impacts of tariffs [49][51]. - The anticipated shift in monetary policy could lead to a weaker dollar and increased credit challenges, impacting overall market sentiment [48][56]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Necessity and Feasibility of Expansion - There is a pressing need for expanded fiscal policies to stimulate demand and counteract the negative effects of tariffs as the midterm elections approach [66][68]. - Increased tariff revenues and reduced fiscal pressure from lower interest rates could provide the necessary funding for expanded fiscal measures without resorting to excessive borrowing [68]. - The experience from the 2018 midterm elections suggests that failure to maintain fiscal expansion could lead to adverse market reactions [68]. Group 5: Foreign Policy - Return to "America First" and Strong Geopolitical Stance - Trump's foreign policy is expected to focus on pragmatic interest exchanges, emphasizing "America First" while managing geopolitical conflicts with limited intervention [69][79]. - Efforts to mediate conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Middle East will continue, with a strong emphasis on leveraging economic and military pressure to achieve peace [70][73]. - The approach to foreign policy will likely involve a mix of negotiation and coercion, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions and impacting market risk appetite [79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.76 CNY [6][4]. Core Views - The company is optimistic about business growth in the fourth quarter and next year, despite facing challenges in the first three quarters of 2025 due to trade wars and inflation in Europe and the US [2][3]. - The company has accelerated its expansion into domestic and non-US markets, which have shown strong growth this year [2][3]. - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.9 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60 million CNY, down 40% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 3.5 billion CNY, an increase of 3% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 15% to 190 million CNY [1]. - The company’s revenue growth is under pressure primarily due to external factors, but domestic sales and non-US markets are performing well [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The US market has seen a decline in demand for furniture products due to trade tensions and inflation, with exports to the US dropping by 25.54% [2]. - The company is leveraging its overseas manufacturing bases to mitigate trade risks and is focusing on expanding its presence in top countries and among top clients [2][3]. - Domestic sales of the company's self-owned brands have grown significantly, with improved profitability and a notable increase in the market influence of high-end products [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 are 3.54 billion, 4.75 billion, 4.94 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.25 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of -12.75%, 34.22%, 4.07%, 11.73%, and 13.16% [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to decline slightly in the coming years, with projections of 297.88 million, 296.20 million, and 288.77 million CNY for 2023 to 2025, before recovering in 2026 and 2027 [11][12].

Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. government is expected to end its longest shutdown, boosting risk sentiment across various markets, including U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals, while safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen declined [1] - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.82%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [2][3] - Large tech stocks saw significant gains, with Nvidia rising over 5%, AMD over 4%, and other major companies like Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Netflix also experiencing increases [3] Group 2: Government Shutdown Developments - The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which has lasted for 40 days, with a potential resolution expected soon [5] - The House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, with the earliest possible vote scheduled for Wednesday, contingent on Senate actions [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The St. Louis Fed President indicated limited room for further interest rate cuts, citing expected strong economic rebound in early next year due to the end of the government shutdown and other supportive factors [7][8] - There is a consensus among several Fed officials to pause rate cuts in December, emphasizing the need to control inflation above target levels [9] Group 4: Aluminum Market Dynamics - The U.S. aluminum market premium has surged by 155%, reaching a historic high, driven by increased tariffs and structural supply tensions, impacting industries reliant on aluminum [10][11] - The Midwest aluminum premium hit $0.8810 per pound, translating to $1,942 per ton, with total costs for U.S. buyers reaching $4,792 per ton [10] - The ongoing supply tightness, particularly due to reduced exports from China and the U.S. government's tariff policies, is expected to maintain high premium levels in the aluminum market [11]

Core Points - President Trump announced plans to distribute "dividends" of at least $2,000 to most Americans using tariff revenues, claiming that tariffs are generating trillions for the federal government [1][3] - The tariffs are projected to generate between $300 billion to $400 billion annually, with an estimated total of $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The long-term goal of tariffs is to "rebalance trade," and any dividend distribution would require Congressional approval [3][4] Group 1 - Trump's proposal aims to target approximately 150 million American adults with a potential total expenditure of $300 billion for the dividends [4] - Recent data shows that the U.S. collected about $89 billion in tariffs from February 4 to September 23, and $195 billion in tariffs in the first three quarters of the year [4] - Public opinion is divided, with 58% of respondents believing that tariffs harm the economy, and nearly 60% attributing significant responsibility for current inflation to the government [4][5] Group 2 - A report indicates that U.S. tariff policies could lead to over $1.2 trillion in losses for global businesses by 2025, with about two-thirds of the cost burden falling on American consumers [5] - Personal accounts from American citizens highlight the negative impact of tariffs on their purchasing power and living costs, contradicting government claims of affordability [5]