证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 高紫明 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.51 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 360 million yuan, a significant increase of 41.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The decline in investment income in Q4 2024 negatively impacted the overall annual performance, particularly from the Yalong River Hydropower, which saw a net profit decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the Yalong River Hydropower's net profit was 8.27 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a significant drop of approximately 77% in Q4 compared to the same period in 2023 [2]. - The company's Q4 2024 net profit was 86 million yuan, a decrease of 84.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in investment income from Yalong River Hydropower [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.08 billion, 5.28 billion, and 5.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 15.5, and 14.8 [4][5]. Operational Highlights - The company’s controlling and equity investments contributed to a profit increase in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.2% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The operational performance in Q1 2025 was bolstered by the commissioning of the first unit of the Yinjing Hydropower Station, which has a capacity of 390,000 kilowatts [11]. - The company anticipates improved performance from Yalong River Hydropower in Q1 2025, with expected revenue growth driven by increased electricity prices and generation capacity [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795) with a target price of 6.12 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The profitability of thermal power is improving, while the company is awaiting the commissioning of hydropower projects [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in revenue for 2024, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [7]. - The company is expected to see growth in its various segments, particularly in thermal and hydropower, with a focus on increasing installed capacity in renewable energy [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A revenue is projected at 179.18 billion CNY, with a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 9.83 billion CNY, an increase of 75.3% year-on-year [7]. - For 2025E, revenue is expected to rise to 192.20 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7.26%, while net profit is forecasted to decrease to 7.57 billion CNY, a decline of 23.01% [2][9]. - **Segment Performance**: - Thermal power is projected to generate a net profit of 100.5 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit margin of 2.9 cents per kWh, showing a year-on-year increase [7]. - The hydropower segment is expected to face challenges due to impairment losses, with a projected net profit of 19.9 billion CNY, down 33.3% year-on-year [7]. - The wind and solar segments are anticipated to grow significantly, with net profits of 19.2 billion CNY and 13.8 billion CNY, respectively, despite facing price pressures [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for thermal power, 20.0 for hydropower, and 16.0 for wind and solar, leading to a total market value estimate of 1,091 billion CNY for the company [11][10]. Key Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including: - Earnings per Share (EPS) for 2024A is projected at 0.55 CNY, decreasing to 0.42 CNY in 2025E [2]. - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 12.67% in 2024A to 11.29% in 2025E [2]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 8.3 for 2024A, increasing to 10.8 for 2025E [2].

2025年1-3月，公司控股水电企业累计完成发电量9.06亿千瓦时， 同比上年增长20.32%；上网电量8.91亿千瓦时，同比上年增长20.57%； 水电企业平均上网电价0.349元／千瓦时，同比上年增长23.32%。 2025年1-3月，公司控股光伏发电企业累计完成发电量0.54亿千 瓦时，同比上年增长74.19%；上网电量0.54亿千瓦时，同比上年增长 74.19%；平均上网电价0.444元／千瓦时（含国补），同比上年降低 22.11%。 股票代码：600674 股票简称：川投能源 公告编号：2025-026号 四川川投能源股份有限公司 2025 年 1-3 月主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整 性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第三号—电 力》的要求，现将公司2025年1-3月发电业务的经营情况公告如下： 2025年1-3月，公司控股企业累计完成发电量9.60亿千瓦时，同 比上年增长21.98%；上网电量9.45亿千瓦时，同比上年增长22.73%； 企业平均上网电价0.35 ...

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然而，当时只有中国工程院院士、时任广州抽水蓄能电站联营公司总经理罗绍基支持这一创新方 案。"打破常规，才有突破。"罗绍基当场拍板，并强调"有事我负责"。刘学山提出的创新方案使广蓄一 期在保证施工质量的前提下缩短了6个月的工期，还直接节约了6000多万元的投资。刘学山也因此获得 原电力工业部颁发的科技进步一等奖。 罗绍基院士和公司鼓励创新、支持创新的做法，深深鼓舞着刘学山。这成为他日后勇于创新的底气所 在。 近日，南方电网储能股份有限公司专家委员会主任委员刘学山从柬埔寨出差回国，和记者分享了他的科 研经历。30多年来，刘学山扎根抽水蓄能行业，先后参与我国20多座抽水蓄能电站建设。他带领团队持 续创新，首创抽水蓄能超高压钢筋混凝土压力管道建设关键技术。不久前，刘学山获得第八届潘家铮 奖。 优化设计缩短工期六个月 广州抽水蓄能电站（以下简称"广蓄"）是我国自行设计和施工的第一座抽水蓄能工程。广蓄一期工程配 套大亚湾核电站运行，因此其投产必须早于大亚湾核电站投产时间。 然而受客观条件限制，团队在建设过程中发现，广蓄一期难以按预计时间投产。这把团队急得团团转。 刚从地质行业改行而来的刘学山十分好学。只要施工单位干活，他 ...