Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil turned weaker during the night session and is expected to enter a short - term consolidation phase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues its consolidation trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures, FU2509 closed at 2,933 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, with a settlement price of 2,953 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. FU2510 closed at 2,949 yuan/ton, up 0.31%, with a settlement price of 2,969 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2509 closed at 3,655 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a settlement price of 3,672 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LU2510 closed at 3,676 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with a settlement price of 3,697 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 403,993 lots, a decrease of 79,435 lots, and the open interest was 148,798 lots, a decrease of 18,854 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 185,899 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots, and the open interest was 83,718 lots, a decrease of 12,634 lots. - For LU2509, the trading volume was 12,574 lots, an increase of 2,637 lots, and the open interest was 14,320 lots, a decrease of 2,701 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 116,200 lots, a decrease of 220 lots, and the open interest was 60,855 lots, a decrease of 5,550 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) were 110,980, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore, the MOPS price of 3.5%S fuel was 411.4 dollars/ton, down 0.26%, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 511.8 dollars/ton, down 0.53%. - The Singapore Bunker price of 3.5%S fuel was 426.0 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 526.0 dollars/ton, down 0.19%. - Similar price changes were observed in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU09 - 10 was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged from the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - FU09 was 722 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. - Other spreads such as FU2509 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) decreased by 15.3 yuan/ton, LU2509 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) decreased by 17.4 yuan/ton, and the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) decreased by 1.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish outlook and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Report Core View - Fuel oil shows a short - term upward trend at night, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil keeps strengthening, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to widen [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - FU2509 closed at 2,917 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the previous day, and its settlement price rose 1.85%. FU2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/ton, up 1.85%, with a 1.50% increase in the settlement price. - LU2509 closed at 3,631 yuan/ton, up 2.48%, and its settlement price rose 1.92%. LU2510 closed at 3,640 yuan/ton, up 1.92%, with a 2.03% increase in the settlement price [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 591,508 lots, a decrease of 36,598 lots, and the open interest was 192,439 lots, a decrease of 8,540 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 152,256 lots, an increase of 10,754 lots, and the open interest was 98,171 lots, a decrease of 5,456 lots. - The trading volume of LU2509 was 17,226 lots, a decrease of 2,856 lots, and the open interest was 20,026 lots, a decrease of 4,577 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 130,315 lots, a decrease of 539 lots, and the open interest was 70,350 lots, a decrease of 3,218 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 110,980 lots with no change, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 90 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - For high - sulfur (3.5%S) fuel oil in Singapore MOPS, the price was 404.2 dollars/ton, up 1.49% from the previous day. In Singapore Bunker, it was 417.0 dollars/ton, up 0.97%. - For low - sulfur (0.5%S) fuel oil in Singapore MOPS, the price was 505.2 dollars/ton, up 1.70% from the previous day. In Singapore Bunker, it was 518.0 dollars/ton, up 1.57% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU09 - 10 was - 4 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread of LU09 - 10 was - 9 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the settlement spread. - The spread of LU09 - FU09 was 714 yuan/ton, a change of - 12 yuan/ton from the settlement spread [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed flat at 2,879 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.59% at 3,588 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices are oscillating, providing limited short-term direction for fuel oil. The FU and LU markets are narrowly fluctuating, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market currently lacks fundamental highlights. The market structure has been continuously adjusted, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. Although the power generation demand is in the peak season and Egypt's procurement is strong, Saudi Arabia's use of fuel oil in power plants has decreased year-on-year due to increased crude oil production, limiting the growth space of power generation terminal demand. However, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently. The arrival of Brazilian cargoes has increased, and Kuwait's exports have resumed. There are no obvious contradictions in the Asia-Pacific spot market. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) taken earlier can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions taken earlier can be gradually closed for profit [2]. - Spot-futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. Chart Information - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, near-month spreads, and various fuel oil futures contract closing prices, index closing prices, and trading volumes [3][4][7][11][13][16][24][25][28][29].

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-24 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：前期空FU裂解价差（FU-Brent或FU-SC）头寸可适当止盈 跨期：前期FU反套头寸可逐步止盈 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 俄罗斯7月高硫燃料油发货量回升 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.69%，报2879元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.28%，报3565 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡走势，对FU、LU短期方向指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转松的下行压力。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，目前基本面缺乏亮点，近期市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端 供应相对充裕，库存水平偏高。近期伊朗和俄罗斯高硫燃料油发货量都出现一定增加态势。其中，俄罗斯7月发货 量预计在237万吨，环比6月增加47万吨，同比去年提升22万吨。但往前看，我们认为高硫燃料油结构性利好因素 并未完全消退，如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month calendar spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 calendar spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 cracking spread declined slightly, the calendar spread weakened, and the 8-9 spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 spread fluctuating around $16. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly. Under the pressure of delivery at the window, the near-month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low-sulfur valuation is relatively high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [6] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is relatively high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 increased by $4.12, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 increased by $7.99, Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased by $0.81, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 increased by $19.70, Rotterdam VLSFO-Gas M1 decreased by $11.71, LGO-Brent M1 increased by $0.83, and Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 increased by $3.87. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $13.94, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $12.21, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $7.18, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by $0.99, Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 decreased by $1.19, and Singapore VLSFO-Gas M1 increased by $0.14. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $14.12, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $7.34, the 380 basis decreased by $0.65, the high-sulfur internal-external spread increased by $2.5, and the low-sulfur internal-external spread decreased by $1.0. [4] Domestic FU Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of FU 01 decreased by 55, FU 05 decreased by 45, FU 09 decreased by 61, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 10, FU 05 - 09 increased by 16, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 6. [4] Domestic LU Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of LU 01 decreased by 47, LU 05 decreased by 40, LU 09 decreased by 47, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 7, LU 05 - 09 increased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 remained unchanged. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high-low sulfur spread continues to rebound, but the driving force on the low-sulfur end remains limited. The market has returned to the fundamental-driven logic. The differentiation pattern between high and low sulfur has significantly converged [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are in a stage of marginal weakening, with the spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread continuously declining. However, summer power generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and the increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial for the recovery of import demand [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is stable. But in the medium term, the demand share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.44% at 2,960 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.56% at 3,596 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the crude oil premium has rapidly declined, and the market has returned to fundamental-driven logic [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil's spread structure is in a stage of marginal weakening, with sufficient supply on the spot side and limited positive drivers. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil. After the ceasefire with Israel, Iran's exports show signs of recovery [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with insufficient supply of Western arbitrage cargoes and low domestic production in May. But in the medium term, the demand share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Cross-period: Short the FU2509-FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the logic dominated by fundamentals after the decline of the crude oil premium due to the easing of the Middle - East situation [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but the market structure will find new support after full adjustment [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure and lacks a continuous upward - driving force [2] Group 3: Market Analysis High - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2979 yuan/ton [1] - The spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [1] - OPEC's production increase and Iran's potential export recovery will boost supply [1] - Iraq's high - sulfur fuel oil exports are at a high level, with an expected shipment of 167 tons in June, up 32 tons from May and 70 tons from last year [1] - Summer power - generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is stable, and refinery demand may increase with the adjustment of cracking spread and tax - deduction ratio [1] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.03% at 3590 yuan/ton [1] - Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable due to European refinery conversion and low Western arbitrage cargo supply [2] - Singapore's bunker sales increased in May, supporting the market [2] - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production may rise after the refinery maintenance season [2] Group 4: Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-27 伊朗6月高硫燃料油发货量小幅增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3019元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.19%，报3693 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变 数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段，FU、LU盘面窄幅波动为主。 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。供应 方面，伊朗6月高硫燃料油供应并未受到地缘冲突的显著影响。参考船期数据，伊朗6月份高硫燃料油发货量预计 为105万吨，环比增加8万吨，同比减少9万吨。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高硫燃料油自身市场驱动有限，夏季发 电端消费受到季节性与天然气替代的提振。此外，国内炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调对炼厂燃料油需求存在边际利好， 但裂解价差需要进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构持稳运行。最新数据显示5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位，此外新 加坡5月份船燃销量显著增长，下游船燃需求短期表现良好，对市场存在支撑。 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 燃料油日报 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/6/19 | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/5/22 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3369 | 3333 | 2997 | 3000 | 36 | 372 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 25.0 | 25.2 | 21.4 | 14.7 | -0.2 | 3.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 24750 | 24750 | 24750 | 28950 | 0 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3998 | 3921 | 3645 | 3505 | 77 | 353 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 5.2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 6.6 ...