Workflow
燃料油期货
icon
Search documents
燃料油日报:市场多空因素交织,短期方向仍不明朗-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macro - economic situation is unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market is facing many uncertainties in the short term, showing a range - bound trend, and the FU and LU fuel oil markets also show narrow fluctuations [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors in the market. The export of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East is increasing, while the supply from Iran and Russia is restricted. If the market continues to loosen after the peak power - generation season, it may require a further callback in crack spreads to attract incremental demand from refineries [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with low domestic production and tightened Western arbitrage supply. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with support at the bottom of the valuation and significant upward resistance [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.25% at 2,832 yuan/ton in daytime trading, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.49% at 3,474 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2] Figures - Figures 1 - 18 show various price and trading volume data of Singapore and domestic fuel oil, including spot prices, swap prices, futures contract closing prices, month - to - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [3]
燃料油日报:市场驱动有限,盘面窄幅震荡-20250829
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 05:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macro - economic situation is unclear, especially with limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short - term, showing a range - bound oscillation, and the FU and LU fuel oil markets also show narrow - range fluctuations [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing, with relatively abundant overall supply. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil exports continue to increase and may rise further after the end of the peak power - generation demand season. If the market continues to loosen, it may require a further decline in crack spreads to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production remains low, Western - region arbitrage supply has tightened again, and the outer - market monthly spread structure has strengthened slightly. In the short - term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and surplus production capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to oscillate [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [2]. - Options: No strategy provided [2]. 4) Charts Summary - There are 18 charts in the report, including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, as well as fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, indices, near - month contract prices, near - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest [3]. - The data sources for these charts are Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][9]
燃料油日报:中东高硫燃料油发货量持续增加-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:16
Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.39% at 2,821 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.47% at 3,485 yuan/ton [1] - The current geopolitical and macro situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The crude oil market faces many uncertainties in the short term, and the oil price fell again yesterday, driving down the FU and LU futures [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, high-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of structural adjustment and market rebalancing and currently does not have the conditions to strengthen again. The shipment volume of high-sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East continues to increase, reaching 3.45 million tons in August, an increase of 80,000 tons month-on-month [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited. Domestic production remains low, overseas supply shows a tightening trend again, and the contango structure of the outer market has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the market structure remains relatively stable. However, in the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of being replaced in demand share and having more surplus production capacity. Therefore, although the downside space for valuation is limited, the upward resistance is also large [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 3: Graphs - Graphs include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]
燃料油日报:中东高硫燃料油出口有所回落-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]
富查伊拉燃料油库存增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.25% at 2,826 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.25% at 3,526 yuan/ton [1] - After the recent correction, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillatory trend, providing limited short-term directional guidance for FU and LU prices. The medium-term expectation of a looser balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [1] - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after consecutive adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, spot supply is relatively abundant, while demand lacks growth momentum. Although power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality. According to Platts data, Fujairah's fuel oil inventory reached 9.656 million barrels this week, a 21.67% increase from the previous week. Looking ahead, in the long-term trend of crude oil lightening and refinery unit upgrades, structural support remains. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be monitored [1] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, current market pressure is limited, and supply growth remains constrained. Domestic production remains low, and the tight supply situation in the bonded area has not been fully alleviated. Medium-term prospects are not optimistic as the ample remaining low-sulfur fuel oil production capacity will attract supply release once crack spreads are favorable, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil [1] Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Close out previous short positions on FU crack spreads (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [2] - Cross-variety: Close out previous short positions on FU crack spreads (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - Inter-period: Close out previous FU reverse calendar spread positions [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Chart Information - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot prices, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contracts, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spreads, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spreads, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing prices, fuel oil FU futures index closing prices, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing prices, fuel oil FU near-month contract spreads, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract prices, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spreads, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]
燃料油:夜盘窄幅调整,短期震荡走势为主,低硫燃料油:短线弱于高硫,外盘现货高低硫
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil had a narrow - range adjustment during the night session, with a short - term oscillating trend [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2509, the closing price was 2,842 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the settlement price was 2,818 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [1]. - For FU2510, the closing price was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the settlement price was 2,839 yuan/ton, down 1.73% [1]. - For LU2509, the closing price was 3,562 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the settlement price was 3,544 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [1]. - For LU2510, the closing price was 3,560 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, and the settlement price was 3,539 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 333,121 lots, a decrease of 183,814 lots, and the open interest was 137,503 lots, a decrease of 4,374 lots [1]. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 144,527 lots, a decrease of 16,999 lots, and the open interest was 80,705 lots, a decrease of 1,103 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2509 was 3,561 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots, and the open interest was 9,868 lots, a decrease of 792 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 86,813 lots, a decrease of 22,368 lots, and the open interest was 51,179 lots, a decrease of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the whole market were 110,980, and for low - sulfur fuel oil were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 406.4 dollars/ton, up 0.47%, and (0.5%S) was 498.8 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [1]. - Singapore Bunker (3.5%S) was 419.0 dollars/ton, up 0.72%, and (0.5%S) was 511.0 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Other spot prices in different regions also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the settlement spread [1]. - The spread of LU09 - 10 was 2 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread of LU09 - FU09 was 720 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 726 yuan/ton [1]. - Other price spreads also had corresponding changes, such as the spread between futures and spot prices and the spread between different sulfur - content products [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil was 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil was also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].
原油价格下跌,市场驱动偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's decline in crude oil prices drove down the unilateral prices of FU and LU, and the expectation of a looser medium - term balance sheet has potential suppression on the market [2] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has been operating weakly recently, with the market structure continuously adjusting and the crack spread significantly dropping from its peak. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak - season procurement by power plants. However, as the price difference between the East and West regions of high - sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the Asia - Pacific market is expected to receive some short - term support. Structurally favorable factors have not completely disappeared in the medium term [2] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market currently has limited positive factors. As the tight diesel situation overseas eases, the support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and there is an expectation of increased component supply. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil, supply will be released once the crack profit is appropriate. Also, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook is not optimistic [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.33% at 2,846 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.84% at 3,559 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating; Low - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - For cross - varieties, the previous short positions in the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) can be appropriately closed for profit [3] - For cross - periods, the previous FU reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [3] - For spot - futures: No strategy [3] - For options: No strategy [3]
燃料油:夜盘转弱,短期转入震荡,低硫燃料油:盘整走势延续,外盘现货高低硫
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil turned weaker during the night session and is expected to enter a short - term consolidation phase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues its consolidation trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures, FU2509 closed at 2,933 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, with a settlement price of 2,953 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. FU2510 closed at 2,949 yuan/ton, up 0.31%, with a settlement price of 2,969 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2509 closed at 3,655 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a settlement price of 3,672 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LU2510 closed at 3,676 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with a settlement price of 3,697 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 403,993 lots, a decrease of 79,435 lots, and the open interest was 148,798 lots, a decrease of 18,854 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 185,899 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots, and the open interest was 83,718 lots, a decrease of 12,634 lots. - For LU2509, the trading volume was 12,574 lots, an increase of 2,637 lots, and the open interest was 14,320 lots, a decrease of 2,701 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 116,200 lots, a decrease of 220 lots, and the open interest was 60,855 lots, a decrease of 5,550 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) were 110,980, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore, the MOPS price of 3.5%S fuel was 411.4 dollars/ton, down 0.26%, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 511.8 dollars/ton, down 0.53%. - The Singapore Bunker price of 3.5%S fuel was 426.0 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 526.0 dollars/ton, down 0.19%. - Similar price changes were observed in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU09 - 10 was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged from the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - FU09 was 722 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. - Other spreads such as FU2509 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) decreased by 15.3 yuan/ton, LU2509 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) decreased by 17.4 yuan/ton, and the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) decreased by 1.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish outlook and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1].
燃料油:夜盘上浮,短期强势延续,低硫燃料油,持续走强,外盘现货高低硫价差
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Report Core View - Fuel oil shows a short - term upward trend at night, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil keeps strengthening, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to widen [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - FU2509 closed at 2,917 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the previous day, and its settlement price rose 1.85%. FU2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/ton, up 1.85%, with a 1.50% increase in the settlement price. - LU2509 closed at 3,631 yuan/ton, up 2.48%, and its settlement price rose 1.92%. LU2510 closed at 3,640 yuan/ton, up 1.92%, with a 2.03% increase in the settlement price [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 591,508 lots, a decrease of 36,598 lots, and the open interest was 192,439 lots, a decrease of 8,540 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 152,256 lots, an increase of 10,754 lots, and the open interest was 98,171 lots, a decrease of 5,456 lots. - The trading volume of LU2509 was 17,226 lots, a decrease of 2,856 lots, and the open interest was 20,026 lots, a decrease of 4,577 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 130,315 lots, a decrease of 539 lots, and the open interest was 70,350 lots, a decrease of 3,218 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 110,980 lots with no change, and those of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 90 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - For high - sulfur (3.5%S) fuel oil in Singapore MOPS, the price was 404.2 dollars/ton, up 1.49% from the previous day. In Singapore Bunker, it was 417.0 dollars/ton, up 0.97%. - For low - sulfur (0.5%S) fuel oil in Singapore MOPS, the price was 505.2 dollars/ton, up 1.70% from the previous day. In Singapore Bunker, it was 518.0 dollars/ton, up 1.57% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU09 - 10 was - 4 yuan/ton, with no change. The spread of LU09 - 10 was - 9 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton from the settlement spread. - The spread of LU09 - FU09 was 714 yuan/ton, a change of - 12 yuan/ton from the settlement spread [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1].
市场短期矛盾有限,关注高硫结构企稳信号
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]