燃料油日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面跟随原油小幅反弹，短期不确定性仍存 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.15%，报2732元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.19%，报3483 元/吨。 在经历连续下跌后，原油价格出现企稳反弹迹象，并带动FU、LU盘面小幅上涨。短期需要关注俄美乌之间会谈的 进展，美国对俄罗斯制裁的态度变化将影响市场情绪，带来额外价格波动。如果没有超预期的宏观与地缘事件， 中期油市下行压力仍存。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫油基本面与市场结构依然偏弱，短期压力有限。但未来随着夏季结束，中东当地 需求回落，叠加欧佩克增产趋势，中东燃料油发货可能还有增长空间，高硫燃料油市场面临进一步转松的预期。 但如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求显著改善，市场结构有望企稳并再度走强。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，但整体并无短缺预期。国产量持续处于低位，但海外供应已有所回升，外 盘近期呈现边际转弱态势。中期视角下，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放， 且航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场上方阻力较大。 | 图1：新加坡高硫3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.3% at 2,713 yuan/ton, and the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.93% at 3,480 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, with a bearish cost-side guidance, and the FU and LU contract trends are also weak. The medium-term oil market balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil shows signs of stabilization, with a slight rebound in the outer market's monthly spread and crack spread, while the domestic market is weak but without prominent contradictions. Currently, the spot supply of high-sulfur oil remains relatively abundant, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. Except for the peak-season effect of power plants, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and the upward driving force of the market is still limited. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently in the future, attracting a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. The current event worthy of attention is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. There have been signs of a rebound in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the tripartite talks go smoothly, and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply has room for further growth [2]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Although domestic production has remained at a low level, overseas supply has rebounded. From a medium-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Cross-variety: No strategy [3]. - Cross-period: No strategy [3]. - Spot-futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.14% at 2,770 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.95% at 3,502 yuan/ton. After the callback, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillating trend recently. The FU and LU futures followed the decline of the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market has potential suppression on the energy sector. Short-term uncertainty comes from the outcome of the meeting between Russia and the US on the 15th. Whether the US tightens or eases sanctions against Russia will affect market sentiment [1]. - For the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply remains relatively abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested. According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, the US relaxes sanctions against Russia, and Ukraine stops drone attacks on Russian refineries, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. On the one hand, domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. On the other hand, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Market Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - After continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited, and there are signs of stabilization in the spot premium and monthly spreads in the overseas market. However, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and inventories in the Asia-Pacific region are high [1]. - Under the general trend of lighter crude oil and refinery equipment upgrades, structural support still exists. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. But in the short term, the previously accumulated inventories still need to be digested [1]. - According to shipping schedule data, the shipments of high-sulfur fuel oil from Russia showed signs of recovery in July and early August. The future trend depends on the progress of the meeting between Russia and the US this week. If the negotiation goes smoothly, there is a certain growth space for high-sulfur fuel oil, and the fundamentals may further loosen; otherwise, there is an expectation of a certain tightening of Russian fuel oil supply [1]. Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. After the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally [2]. - From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract the release of supply. Moreover, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

低硫燃料油方面，供应端，尼日利亚RFCC装置处于间歇性检修状态，运营仍不稳定；南苏丹对外低硫 原料供应逐步回升至2024年初水平，8月新装载船货已陆续发布招标。此外，Al-Zour的低硫燃料油出口 量已回升至炼厂正常运行时期的高位，其中对新加坡地区的出口增长尤为明显。 国内市场方面，低硫燃料油产量维持低位。国内主营单位有20万吨低硫燃料油出口配额转为成品油配 额，导致今年主营单位低硫燃料油生产积极性不高。 8月主营单位低硫燃料油排产约 105万吨，保税区供应相对偏紧，进口需求得以维持，短期内对低硫燃 料油估值形成一定支撑。不过，近期印度、中东和美国发往欧洲的柴油数量增加，导致欧洲柴油裂解价 差快速走弱，海外柴油供应紧张的情况有所缓解。从调和角度看，低硫组分供应有望回升，但这一逻辑 仍存在变数。因ARA地区柴油库存仍处于低位，不利于满足冬季取暖需求。后期随着墨西哥湾飓风季 来临和炼厂秋季检修启动，柴油市场将再次面临供不应求局面，低硫燃料油估值仍将获得支撑。 在关税政策扰动下，全球经济增长的不确定性影响航运需求，进而传导至燃料油需求。此外，随着航运 业碳中和推进，低硫燃料油的市场份额正被逐步替代。5月起生效的 E ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways with a downward bias [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.39% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 3,463 yuan/ton [1] - After the correction, crude oil prices have shown a weak oscillatory trend recently. The FU and LU futures prices have declined following the cost side, and the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet in the oil market potentially suppresses the energy sector [1] - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short-term contradictions are relatively limited. Currently, spot supply remains abundant, while demand lacks growth momentum. Although power generation demand is boosted by the peak season, it lacks drivers beyond seasonality [1] - In the long term, given the trends of lighter crude oil and refinery upgrades, structural support remains. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure may strengthen again. However, in the short term, the previously accumulated inventory still needs to be digested [1] - Attention should be paid to the progress of the meeting between Russian and US leaders this week. If the negotiation is successful and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia, there is room for an increase in fuel oil supply, and the fundamentals may further loosen [1] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Currently, domestic production remains low, and bonded area supply is relatively tight. However, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to recover [2] - From a medium-term perspective, as the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, supply will be released once crack spreads are appropriate. Moreover, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is still significant resistance above the market [2] Group 3: Graphical Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various fuel oil prices, spreads, and trading volumes, such as Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, and fuel oil futures prices and trading volumes [4]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-08 富查伊拉燃料油库存增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2826元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.25%，报3526 元/吨。 原油价格回调后近日呈现弱势震荡走势，对于FU、LU价格短期方向指引有限，中期平衡表转松的预期则对能源板 块有潜在压制。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，市场结构连续调整后，短期矛盾相对有限。目前来看，现货端供应相对充裕，需求端则 缺乏增长动力，发电端需求虽然受到旺季提振，但缺乏超出季节性的驱动。参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存 本周录得965.6万桶，环比前一周增加21.67%。往前看，在原油轻质化、炼厂装置升级的大趋势下，结构性支撑仍 存，未来如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度走强的机会。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场压力有限，供应增量仍受到抑制，国产量维持低位，保税区供应偏紧的状况尚未完全 缓解。中期来看，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放，且航运业碳中和趋势 将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场前景仍不容乐观。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent strengthening of crude oil prices has driven up energy commodities including FU and LU The market fears that Trump may intensify sanctions on Russia, leading to a decline in market supply However, if the sanction expectations are not fulfilled, there is still resistance above the oil price [1] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has been weak recently, with its market structure continuously adjusting and crack spreads significantly falling from high levels The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant and the inventory level is high Although the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten and the Asia-Pacific market may get short-term support, the market may strengthen again if the crack spreads are fully adjusted and refinery demand rebounds significantly [1] - The overall pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is currently limited, but in the medium term, the market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant surplus production capacity and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry [1] Strategy Summary - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Consider closing out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: No specific strategy mentioned [2] - For cross-variety: Close out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For cross-period: Gradually close out reverse arbitrage positions on FU [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy [2] - For options: No strategy [2] Chart Information - The report provides various charts related to fuel oil, including spot prices, swap contracts, futures prices, spreads, and trading volumes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the domestic market [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, the crude oil price remained firm. The FU and LU prices are supported by the cost side, with limited downward space in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is operating weakly, with spot premiums, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining. The demand for fuel oil in Saudi Arabia may decline year-on-year during the summer peak season, while Egypt's import demand remains strong, providing some support to the market [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure but lacks obvious drivers. The market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced in the medium term due to the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry, and its market outlook remains weak [2]. - The current market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **High-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.34% at 2,972 yuan/ton. The market structure is operating weakly, and the spot supply is relatively abundant. Saudi Arabia may increase the use of crude oil during the summer peak season, leading to a year-on-year decline in fuel oil demand. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in July are expected to reach 570,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared to last year, and there is room for upward revision. Egypt's imports mainly come from the Middle East and Russia, which helps digest the supply increase in the Middle East [1]. - **Low-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.27% at 3,687 yuan/ton. The current market pressure is limited, but there is no obvious driver. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil may gradually recover from a low level since June, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region has also increased recently. In the medium term, the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced [2]. Strategy - **High-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Low-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Spot-futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3]