交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-16 每日观点 玻璃： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平，季节性淡季来临，下游按需采购，玻璃厂库持续累积，预期 玻璃低位震荡运行为主。 2、风险点：行业复产加速，宏观及房地产政策不及预期 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1044元/吨，FG25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price, profit, and inventory data of glass and soda ash on different dates, reflecting the market dynamics and trends of these two industries [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories Glass - **Price Changes**: From June 5 to June 12, 2025, the price of 5mm glass plates in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of the 5mm large - plate of Shahe Anquan decreased by 8.0, while the FG09 contract price increased by 18.0 and then decreased by 17.0 on June 12 [1] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods and regions also varied. The profit of North China's coal - fired glass decreased by 6.5 and then increased by 0.4, and the profit of South China's natural gas - fired glass decreased by 20.0 [1] - **Spot and Sales**: The spot price of Shahe traders is around 1104, with average transactions and insufficient spot and futures supply. The low - price of Hubei factories is around 980, with fair transactions. The new spot and futures price is 960, with average transactions. The sales rates in different regions are as follows: Shahe 87, Hubei 105, East China 105, and South China 107 [1] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From June 5 to June 12, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in different regions also changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased by 20.0, and the SA05 contract price decreased by 24.0 and then decreased by 13.0 on June 12 [1] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods in North China increased. The profit of North China's ammonia - soda method increased by 30.0 and then 40.0, and the profit of North China's combined - soda method increased by 65.5 and then 56.4 [1] - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei's delivery warehouse is around 1180, and the price in Shahe warehouse is around 1210. The factory warehouses are accumulating inventory, and Yuanxing has over - produced [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-11 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1060元/吨，FG2509收盘价为995元/吨，基差为65元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6975.40万重量箱，较前一周增加3.09%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-6-4 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修增加，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单 不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库持续累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1068元/吨，FG2509收盘价为954元/吨，基差为114元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6766.20万重量箱，较前一周减少0.16%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience a weak adjustment. The recommended investment strategy is to short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract [2][3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Spot Price Drop, Futures Price Decline - **Futures Price**: In May, the glass futures market continued its downward trend. At the end of May, there was a slight rebound due to the oversupply of soda ash, a suitable soda - glass price difference leading to arbitrage operations, and rumors of cold repairs in Hubei production lines. Subsequently, large - scale ignition and resumption of production, along with the increase in inventory during the off - season, caused the main contract to fall below 1000. As of May 30, the glass 09 contract closed at 982 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18 [3][85]. - **Spot Price**: As of May 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1180 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1100 yuan/ton in Central China (down 10 yuan), and 1300 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged) [13]. - **Price Differences**: As of May 30, the soda - glass price difference was 217 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan), the basis of the 09 contract was 68 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [14]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Weakening Costs, Declining Profits - **Imports and Exports**: In March, China imported 475,300 weight - cases of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 44.78%) and exported 1,721,800 weight - cases (a year - on - year increase of 141.52%). There was an increase in the demand for some high - end glass abroad [21]. - **Profits**: The cost and selling price of glass both decreased, leading to weaker profits. The cost of natural gas production was 1603 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 303 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan); the cost of coal - gas production was 1148 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of 32 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan); the cost of petroleum coke production was 1159 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 59 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [24][27]. - **Supply**: As of last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,205 tons/day (up 1800 tons). In May, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, and 3 were restarted after ignition. The national inventory remained at a high level, with the inventory in North China and Central China increasing at the end of the month [29][30][31]. - **Inventory**: As of May 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67,662,000 weight - cases (down 107,000 weight - cases). The inventory in North China was 9,598,000 weight - cases (up 177,000 weight - cases), in Central China was 7,658,000 weight - cases (down 76,000 weight - cases), in East China was 15,700,000 weight - cases (up 5,000 weight - cases), and in South China was 10,521,000 weight - cases (down 39,000 weight - cases) [31]. - **Deep - processing**: The orders of glass deep - processing were less than in previous years. As of May 30, the average national production - sales ratio of float glass was 98.8% (down 5.63%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 50.2% (unchanged), and in mid - May, the number of days of glass deep - processing orders was 10.4 days (up 0.1 day) [37][40][41]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 vehicles), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 231,000 vehicles). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 905,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [51]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In April, China's real estate completion area was 25.8758 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 28%), sales were basically flat year - on - year, and other indicators decreased by more than 20%. New construction was 48.3938 million square meters (down 22%), construction was 66.0961 million square meters (down 27%), and commercial housing sales were 63.9239 million square meters (down 3%). From May 18th to May 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.28 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 8%). In April, real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [56]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Spot Price**: As of May 30, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1440 yuan/ton in East China (down 10 yuan), 1400 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1575 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1199 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan), and the basis in Central China was 201 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan) [58][63]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Profits**: As of the end of the month, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1443 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), with a gross profit of 67 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the cost of the joint - production process was 1635 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), with a gross profit of 215 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [65]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 685,100 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,300 tons), including 369,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9800 tons) and 315,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 11,500 tons). The loss was 180,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,300 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2062 (a week - on - week increase of 1915). As of May 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons), including 806,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons) and 818,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons) [80]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 407,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons), and for light soda ash was 329,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 30,100 tons). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 107.66% (a week - on - week increase of 2.36%). In April, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 24.2 days [82]. 3. Investment Strategy: Strong Supply, Weak Demand, Short on Rebounds - **Main Logic**: In May, the glass futures market continued to decline. At the end of the month, there was a slight rebound, but then the main contract fell below 1000 due to factors such as production resumption and inventory increase. In June, there is a plan to restart the first line of Shahe Xinli, and the supply remains loose. Considering high - temperature rainfall, previous ignition, and coal costs, glass prices are still suppressed, lacking the impetus for a significant rebound. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 1000 mark after two confirmations, indicating that the short - side power still dominates. - **Operation Strategy**: Short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract, and partially take profits on previous short positions [3][85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1009 yuan/ton to 985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 1080 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The main basis increased from 71 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.54% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1072 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The profitability of the coal production line has recovered, the loss of the natural gas production line has narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [16]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [20][22]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. Other demand - related indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, completion area, and downstream processing plant operations and orders are also mentioned but lack specific data updates in this report [26]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.662 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continued to decline to a historical low [4]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious and mainly digest the original glass inventory [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, the seasonal off - season has arrived, downstream purchases on demand, and glass factory inventories have continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will fluctuate at a low level [5].

浮法玻璃市场价格 | 市场 | 型号 | 5月20日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东北 | 5mm 大板 | 1190 | 1190 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西北 | 5mm 大板 | 1280 | 1280 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西南 | 5mm 大板 | 1290 | 1280 | 7-10 | 元/吨 | | 华东 | 5mm 大板 | 1320 | 1310 | -10 | 元/吨 | | 华中 | 5mm 大板 | 1130 | 1130 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 华南 | 5mm 大板 | 1320 | -1320 | | ■元/吨 | | 非北 | 5mm 大板 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 元/吨 | 浮法玻璃市场分析 今日国内5mm浮法玻璃市场延续稳弱运行，局部区域价格小幅松动。其中，沙河地区部分小板厂家报价下调，成交灵 活，整体出货情况尚可；华东市场受外围降价影响，浙江、山东地区成交重心下移，企业间销售情况存在差异，市场 观望情绪蔓延；华中地区主流价格持稳，个别厂家为促进成交小 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Category Glass - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, prices of various 5mm glass products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased by 22.0, from 1220.0 to 1198.0; that of Shahe Great Wall decreased by 13.0, from 1207.0 to 1194.0; and the lowest price of 5mm large - plate glass in Hubei decreased by 30.0, from 1140.0 to 1110.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The FG09 contract price decreased by 8.0 from 1082.0 to 1074.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased by 16.0 from 1131.0 to 1115.0 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass decreased by 1.4 (from 265.7 to 264.3), and the cost decreased by 3.6 (from 907.3 to 903.7). The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained unchanged at - 134.3, while the profit of North China natural - gas glass decreased by 5.0 (from - 203.2 to - 210.3) [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' glass price was around 1168, and the one - price offer for spot - futures was 1180 with weak transactions. The lowest price of factories in Hubei was around 1110. The sales - production ratios were 102 in Shahe, 82 in Hubei, 105 in East China, and 115 in South China [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From April 30 to May 7, the price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 10.0 (from 1340.0 to 1330.0), and that in Central China decreased by 20.0 and then increased by 10.0, finally reaching 1300.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China decreased by 30.0 and then another 10.0, reaching 1220.0 [1]. - **Contract Prices**: The SA05 contract price increased by 4.0 (from 1292.0 to 1296.0), the SA01 contract price decreased by 42.0 (from 1369.0 to 1327.0), and the SA09 contract price decreased by 29.0 (from 1352.0 to 1323.0) [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda process increased by 6.4 (from - 122.1 to - 107.0), and the cost decreased by 6.4 (from 1413.4 to 1407.0). The profit of North China combined - soda process decreased by 22.2 (from 40.5 to 18.3) [1]. - **Spot and Industry**: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1300, that at Shahe warehouses was around 1330, and the terminal delivery price was around 1350 - 1380. There are many maintenance expectations in May [1].

玻璃：传统旺季结束 盘面继续下跌 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：继续下跌 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货小幅反弹后回落，整体下跌趋势仍未改变。供给方面，上周一条产线复产点火，两条产线停产冷 修，日熔量小幅波动。全国厂家库存小幅增加，华北华中库存延续前期拐头向上增长，同比来看华北高于去年，华中维持在同 期高位水平。主销区华东华南整体产销维持相对平稳水平，累库程度不大。煤炭价格继续走弱，煤制气工艺利润得到进一步改 善。需求方面，局部大型加工厂订单稍有好转，深加工订单天数增加明显，但工程订单情况仍然较差，订单天数不及往年。受 制造业优惠政策影响，小板市场成交好于大板。纯碱方面，市场消息多为检修意向，有明确计划的不多，短期内存在产量减少 预期。但结合库存水平和氨碱产能来看，向上反弹空间有限。 后市展望：沙河煤气切改计划属于利空事件。金三银四整体需求成色不佳，传统旺季即将结束，基本面缺乏推涨动力。此 ...

Market Overview - The domestic 5mm float glass market is stable with slight adjustments, particularly in the North China market where some manufacturers have introduced promotional policies to stimulate trading [2] - The East China market remains stable, with some manufacturers adopting flexible shipping strategies based on inventory levels, offering discounts to large order clients to promote inventory reduction [2] - The Southwest region shows improved downstream replenishment activity compared to previous periods, while other regions maintain stable pricing with demand primarily driven by essential replenishment [2] Futures Dynamics - On April 25, the main glass futures contract FG2509 opened at 1137 yuan/ton and closed at 1121 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.75% [3] - The price fluctuated between a high of 1141 yuan/ton and a low of 1117 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,149,632 lots and an increase of 75,634 lots in open interest [3] - The significant decline in glass futures prices is attributed to overall market sentiment fluctuations, with weak fundamentals putting pressure on prices despite low market valuations [3] Inventory and Pricing Outlook - The total inventory of float glass production enterprises is showing a slight downward trend, with some manufacturers increasing shipment efforts to control inventory levels as the holiday approaches [4] - Short-term price expectations are anticipated to remain within a narrow fluctuation range [4]