Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - In the glass market, spot prices in various regions showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable, and the production - sales situation also varied by region. In the soda ash market, factory inventory decreased significantly while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and downstream demand was driven by pre - holiday restocking [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security increased from 1155.0 to 1224.0, a weekly increase of 69.0 and a daily increase of 17.0; Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price rose from 1100.0 to 1180.0, a weekly increase of 80.0 and a daily increase of 40.0. However, the prices of Shandong and South China's 5mm large - plate glass remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1383.0 on September 25th to 1372.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 11.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1270.0 to 1252.0, a daily decrease of 18.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The FG 1 - 5 spread was - 120.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 7.0 and a daily decrease of 7.0; the 01 Hebei basis was - 49.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 24.0 and a daily increase of 23.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired profit increased from 291.6 on September 25th to 302.2 on September 26th, a daily increase of 10.6; North China's natural gas profit increased from - 159.3 to - 150.1, a daily increase of 9.2 [2]. - **Production - Sales Situation**: The production - sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 108, 116, and 157 respectively [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1230.0 to 1200.0, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and a daily decrease of 20.0; North China's light soda price dropped from 1170.0 to 1120.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily decrease of 10.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1404.0 on September 25th to 1384.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 20.0; the SA01 contract price dropped from 1315.0 to 1293.0, a daily decrease of 22.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The SA01 - SA05 spread was - 91.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 2.0 and a daily decrease of 2.0; the SA01 Shahe basis was - 93.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 5.0 and a daily increase of 2.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 152.0 on September 25th to - 168.8 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 16.8; North China's combined - soda process profit dropped from - 175.0 to - 192.4, a daily decrease of 17.4 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventory decreased significantly, while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and overall inventory decreased [2].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a neutral fundamental situation. During the peak season, demand provides weak support at the lower end, while there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies at the upper end. Technically, the bulls are continuous and stable, and the bears are discontinuous, so the glass futures price often has a lower shadow line. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for the 01 contract, paying attention to the support level of 1150 - 1160 [3][4]. - The callback - buying strategy is recommended for glass investment. The main logic is that the glass fundamentals have no obvious changes, the price is affected by coal environmental protection news, the inventory is generally decreasing, the cost of coal - gas production has increased, and the demand from the middle and lower reaches has a short - term replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Callback buying [3][5]. - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The fundamentals remained unchanged, and the price followed the coking coal futures due to coal environmental protection news. There were no changes in production lines, and the daily melting volume remained the same. The national factory inventory continued to decline, but the inventory in North China increased slightly due to rumors of production suspension in Shahe. The inventory in Hubei continued to decline, and the orders of processing plants in East and South China were good. The cost of coal - gas production increased, and the profit decreased, while the profit of petroleum - coke production increased. The middle and lower reaches had short - term replenishment, and the market sentiment improved. The supply and inventory of soda ash decreased slightly, and it was expected to fluctuate recently considering future capacity expansion [3]. - Outlook: The glass fundamentals are neither good nor bad. In the peak season, demand provides weak support, and there are positive factors such as macro - news and environmental policies. Technically, the bulls are strong, so a long - position strategy for the 01 contract is maintained, with attention to the 1150 - 1160 support level [4]. 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - Spot Price: As of September 19, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,140 yuan/ton (+30) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (+10) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,216 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan for the week [12]. 03 Market Review: Widening of Monthly Spreads - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of September 19, the soda ash futures price was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,216 yuan/ton, with a spread of 102 yuan/ton (-8). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 106 yuan/ton (+4). - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (-23) [13][17]. 04 Profit: Increase in Gas Cost - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,579 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was - 349 yuan/ton (+9). - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,181 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 31 yuan/ton (-22). - Petroleum - Coke Process: The cost was 1,093 yuan/ton (+1), and the gross profit was 47 yuan/ton (+29). - Fuel Prices: On September 19, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 598 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Unchanged - Daily Melting Volume: Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 159,455 tons/day (unchanged), with 225 production lines in operation [22]. - Production Line Changes: There were cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions in some production lines [23][24]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - National Inventory: As of September 19, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,090.8 million weight boxes (-67.5). - Regional Inventory: The inventory in North China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+30.9), in Central China was 589 million weight boxes (-33.7), in East China was 1,320.7 million weight boxes (-18.1), in South China was 941.7 million weight boxes (-13.8), in Southwest China was 1,248 million weight boxes (+5.6), the Shahe factory inventory was 278 million weight boxes (+31), and the Hubei factory inventory was 417 million weight boxes (-32) [26]. - Production and Sales Rate: On September 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 100% (+4). - LOW - E Glass: On September 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (+1). - Order Days: In mid - September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.5 days (+0.1) [32]. 07 Deep - Processing: Recovery and Maintenance of Production and Sales Rate - The production and sales rate of glass deep - processing recovered and was maintained. The order days and the operating rate of LOW - E glass showed certain trends [32][34]. 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Growth in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million units, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 units. The sales volume was 2.857 million units, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 units and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 units. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail volume of new - energy passenger cars in China was 1.101 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [42]. 09 Demand: Decline in Real Estate Development Investment - Real Estate: In August, China's real estate completion area was 26.5913 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new construction area was 45.9487 million m² (-20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million m² (-29%); and the commercial housing sales area was 57.4415 million m² (-11%). - Transaction Area: From September 13 to September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.54 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. - Development Investment: In August, the real estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [48]. 10 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Market Price Increase - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - Factory Price: The ex - factory prices of some heavy soda ash enterprises had certain changes. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,318 yuan/ton (+28). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 09 contract was - 18 yuan/ton (-28) [51][55][56]. 11 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Cost Increase - Profit: As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 71 yuan/ton (-16). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,100 yuan/ton (+111), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,320 yuan/ton (+44), with a gross profit of - 37 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production process was 1,739 yuan/ton (+57), with a gross profit of - 71 yuan/ton (-16) [57][58][59]. 12 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Inventory Reduction - Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.57 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 million tons), including 41.77 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons) and 32.8 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons). The loss was 12.62 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.53 million tons). - Warehouse Receipts: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 6916). - Inventory: As of September 19, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7556 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,900 tons), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 28,400 tons) and 749,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons) [72]. 13 Cost - Side: Soda Ash - Improvement in Apparent Demand - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 446,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 341,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons. - Production and Sales Rate: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.39%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [75][80].

浮法玻璃市场价格 | 市场 | 型号 | 8月21日 | 8 月 22 日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东北 | 5mm 大板 | 1080 | 1080 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西北 | 5mm 大板 | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 西南 | 5mm 大板 | 1130 | 1140 | 7 10 | 元/吨 | | 华东 | 5mm 大板 | 1190 | 1190 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 非中 | 5mm 大板 | 1090 | 1090 | 0 | 元/吨 | | 华南 | 5mm 大板 | 1230 | 92300 | O | CONG/吨 | | 非北 | 5mm 大板 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 元/吨 | 浮法玻璃市场分析 今日国内5mm浮法玻璃市场整体呈现稳中有涨态势。其中，华北市场基本走稳，沙河地区个别小板价格微幅调整，整体交投氛围仍 显清淡；西南市场价格重心继续上移，四川地区部分厂家白玻报价上调1-2元/重量箱，下游采购仍以刚需为主，补库意愿不强；华东 市场运行平稳，成 ...

展望后市，华联期货表示，近期玻璃生产利润持续修复，供应呈低位小幅回升，终端需求尚无明显起 色，随着市场情绪回归理性，中下游补库逐渐放缓。短期盘面承压回落，另外09合约逐渐面临交割，预 计市场延续低位震荡运行。操作上，建议暂时观望为主。 需求方面，中辉期货分析称，各地厂家出货速度趋缓，市场整体观望情绪偏浓，中游贸易商出货为主， 投机需求力量减弱。产销下滑，企业库存止降转增，对玻璃市场支撑力量减弱。 库存方面，截至8月7日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6184.7万重箱，环比增加234.8万重箱，增幅 3.95%，同比减少8.18%。 8月8日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，玻璃期货盘面表现偏弱，截止发稿主力合约震荡走弱 1.95%，报1057.00元/吨。 供应方面，国信期货指出，玻璃日熔量15.96万吨，环比上周持平。生产方面，天然气制玻璃周度利润 为-150.36元/吨，煤制玻璃利润111.05元/吨，石油焦制玻璃利润130.57元/吨。 ...

智通财经7月29日电，玻璃期货主力合约日内跌超9%，现报1166元/吨。 玻璃期货主力合约日内跌超9% ...

近期监管趋严，短期波动加大 目录 玻璃基本面 01 1、玻璃行情回顾 本月玻璃走势整体较强。在原料支撑及持续不断地政策刺激下，玻璃本月持续大幅反弹。月末， 由于短期过快上涨，带来交易所监管，引发大跌。 数据来源： 博易大师 正信期货研究院 900 1400 1900 2400 2900 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 2、估值--套利 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 01-05 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 沙河安全 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1月 2月 3月 4月 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is expected to be weakly operating [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rose significantly, forming a resonance with raw materials such as coal and soda ash. Driven by strong macro - sentiment and policy documents, the market was overbought. The supply decreased slightly with a cold - repair of one production line and a decline in daily melting volume. Both main production and sales areas saw inventory drops. The market demand improved, but the downstream terminal's willingness to stockpile remained low. The soda ash market also had more supply than actual demand, with limited upside potential. As the end - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, the 08 - contract positions are higher than usual, and spot goods in the hands of spot - futures traders need to be sold. It is expected that the market will correct from its high level, and participation is not recommended without physical goods [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures rose last week, with supply decreasing slightly and inventory dropping in major areas. Market demand improved, but downstream terminal stocking willingness was low. Soda ash supply exceeded demand. End - of - month meeting expectations are to be realized, and it's expected that the market will correct from its high [2] - Operating Strategy: Weakly operating [2][3] 02 and 03 Market Review - Spot Price: As of July 25, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (+90), 1,190 yuan/ton in Central China (+90), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (+40). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1,362 yuan/ton last Friday, up 281 yuan from the previous week [9][10] - Soda Ash - Glass Spread: As of July 25, the soda ash futures price was 1,440 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,362 yuan/ton, with a spread of 78 yuan/ton (-57) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 09 contract was - 162 yuan/ton (-171), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 64 yuan/ton (+20) [14] 04 Profit - Natural Gas Process: The cost was 1,594 yuan/ton (+22), and the gross profit was - 314 yuan/ton (+18) [15] - Coal - Gas Process: The cost was 1,154 yuan/ton (+30), and the gross profit was 96 yuan/ton (+60) [19] - Petroleum Coke Process: The cost was 1,108 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 82 yuan/ton (+68) [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 157,755 tons/day (-1,100), with 223 production lines in operation. The first - line of Gansu Kaisheng Daming with a daily melting volume of 600T/D was cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,189.6 million weight boxes (-304.3). North China's inventory was 815.3 million weight boxes (-50.4); Central China's was 663 million weight boxes (-75.7); East China's was 1,370.3 million weight boxes (-36.2); South China's was 1,025.6 million weight boxes (-19.4); Southwest's was 1,171.4 million weight boxes (-47.3); and Shahe's factory inventory was 115 million weight boxes (-61) [27][34] 07 Deep - processing - On July 24, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 126% (+35%). On July 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-0.5%). In mid - July, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (-0.2) [36] 08 and 09 Demand - Automotive: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 145,000 and a year - on - year increase of 287,000. Sales were 2.904 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 218,000 and a year - on - year increase of 352,000. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales in June were 1.111 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [48] - Real Estate: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2%; new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%); construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%); and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). From July 14 to July 20, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.37 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. In June, real estate development investment was 1.042416 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [57] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,350 yuan/ton in North China (+50), 1,350 yuan/ton in East China (+75), 1,325 yuan/ton in Central China (+75), and 1,500 yuan/ton in South China (+75) [59] - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,440 yuan/ton (+224) [64] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was - 115 yuan/ton (-149) [63] - Profit: As of last Friday, the ammonia - alkali method cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+9), with a gross profit of - 35 yuan/ton (+48); the co - production method cost was 1,702 yuan/ton (+86), with a gross profit of 18 yuan/ton (+81) [65][67] - Inventory: As of July 25, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8846 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 41,000), including 1.1224 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 200) and 742,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 40,800). The exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 955 (a month - on - month increase of 665). The apparent demand of light soda ash was 355,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,900. The apparent demand of heavy soda ash last week was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 105.66%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. In May, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 25.8 days [77][88][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment. Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to historical lows in the same period. Deep - processing orders are lower than in previous years, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1092 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2509 is 1102 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average, which is bearish [2][42]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The glass fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a low - level range in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low. The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to implement a production - cut plan, which boosts the disk sentiment [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand. The inventory of glass factories has continued to accumulate. It is expected that glass will mainly trade in a low - level range [5]. 4. Glass Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1086 | 1092 | 6 | | Current Value | 1102 | 1092 | - 10 | | Change Rate | 1.47% | 0.00% | - 266.67% | [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1092 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content provided other than the topic of glass production profit. 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 224, with a start - up rate of 75.68%. The number of operating glass production lines is at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,400 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [23]. 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27]. - Other aspects such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and downstream factory start - up and order situations are mentioned but no detailed data is provided other than the data source. 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][42]. 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5088 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.50% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.284 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.24 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | 91 | - 0.56% | - 1.54% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply declining to a relatively low level and demand in a seasonal off - peak period, downstream purchases on an as - needed basis, leading to continuous accumulation of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass price will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe safety large - board glass is 1052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous value; the main basis is 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.00% from the previous value [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific data or analysis content provided other than the mention of glass production profit. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [27][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [43]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - **Negative factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw glass inventories [4].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the glass industry, analyzing its fundamentals, market conditions, and providing a short - term outlook [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply at a relatively low level and in the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed. Glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Glass production profit is at a low level, industry cold repairs increase,开工率 and production decline to historical lows; deep - processing orders are weaker than in previous years, terminal demand is weak, and factory inventories continue to accumulate (bearish) [2] - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, the FG2509 closing price is 1019 yuan/ton, with a basis of 37 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot (bullish) [2] - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish) [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward (bullish) [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase (bearish) [2] - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2] 2. Influence Factor Summary - Bullish factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4] - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting raw - glass inventories [4] 3. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. It is the seasonal demand off - season, downstream buyers purchase as needed, and glass factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate at a low level [5] 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 0.30% to 1019 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 7.50% to 37 yuan/ton [6] 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] 6. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not elaborated in detail in the report 7. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume is 156,800 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23] 8. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons [27] 9. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 69.216 million weight - boxes, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [42] 10. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the glass industry has seen fluctuations in production, consumption, and supply - demand differences. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the difference is 1.51 million tons [43]