交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-3-3 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货956元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1043元/吨，基差为-87元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存7600.80万重量箱，较前一周增加37.32%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract rose from 1041 yuan/ton to 1050 yuan/ton, a increase of 0.86% [6] - The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards remained unchanged at 944 yuan/ton [6] - The main basis changed from -97 yuan/ton to -106 yuan/ton, a increase of 9.28% [6] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] Cost Side of Fundamentals - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2] Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 211, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period [18] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [20] Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24] - The terminal real estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period [4] - The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4] Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 55.352 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [2][39] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently in a weak state, with supply at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders being dismal, and glass factory inventories rising. It is expected that the glass will mainly experience low - level, volatile, and weak operation in the short term [2][5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased by 2.25% from the previous value to 1041 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe safety large - board remained unchanged at 944 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 19.83% to - 97 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 944 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 211, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 55.352 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With low supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile downward trend in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures decreased from 1078 yuan/ton to 1070 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained at 944 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 134 yuan/ton to - 126 yuan/ton, a change of - 5.97% [6] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 944 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] Fundamental - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2] Fundamental - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 211, with an operating rate of 71.86%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 149,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [18][20] Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [24][4] Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 53.064 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [39] Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [40]

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing stable prices in the short term, with a slight increase in futures prices driven by coal prices and production line maintenance expectations [3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - On February 4, the cash price for 5mm float glass in the Shahe market remained stable at 11.75 yuan per square meter, approximately 1006 yuan per ton [1]. - The national average price for float glass is around 1100 yuan per ton [1]. - The main futures contract FG605 increased by 3.36% to 1109 yuan per ton, although there was a slight decline in the night session [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of January 31, there are 296 float glass production lines in China, with 213 currently in operation [2]. - The daily melting capacity of float glass was 151,000 tons, remaining stable compared to January 22 [2]. - The average operating rate for the float glass industry is 71.96%, with a slight increase of 0.34 percentage points [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate is 75.7%, remaining unchanged [2]. - The comprehensive production and sales rate for sample enterprises is around 80% [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Profitability - As of January 29, total inventory for float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 652,000 heavy boxes, or 1.22% [2]. - The average inventory days are 22.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous period [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using natural gas as fuel were -155.12 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 3.57 yuan per ton [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using coal gas were -68.50 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.39 yuan per ton [2]. - Weekly average profits for float glass using petroleum coke were 1.07 yuan per ton, with an increase of 2.85 yuan per ton [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The glass market is currently characterized by low melting capacity and average utilization rates, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases as downstream enterprises conclude pre-holiday stockpiling [3]. - High inventory levels are suppressing further price increases, with a focus on the glass price stabilizing around 1000 yuan per ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass fundamentals are weak, and the short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile and weak operation [2]. - The supply of glass is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, the factory inventory of glass has increased, and it is expected that the glass will be in a low - level volatile and weak operation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures and the spot price of Shahe safety large boards remained unchanged, with a change rate of 0.00%, and the main basis also had no change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 940 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side Glass Production Profit No specific profit data is provided, but it is mentioned that the glass production profit has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of further cold - repair in the industry due to low profit [2][4]. Glass Production Lines and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period [19]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [21]. Fundamentals - Demand Float Glass Monthly Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [25]. Other Demand - Related Indicators - The report also mentions indicators such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operating and order status of downstream processing plants, but no specific data is provided [26][28][35]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [40]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | | | -1.734% | | 2018 | 5162 | 5098 | 5091 | -3.59% | -2.64% | -1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | -2.13% | -0.59% | -0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | -1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289% | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244% | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | -0.56% | -1.57% | -0.834% | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | -2.97% | 0.84% | -0.934% | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 3.94% | -1.15% | -0.90% | [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, cold repair is less than expected, supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, the inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short and the short position is increasing [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1087 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 940 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 116 yuan/ton, an increase of - 21.09% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 940 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. Fundamentals - Supply Side - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [19][21]. Fundamentals - Demand Side - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [25][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [40]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass industry has a weak fundamental situation. With the repair of production profit being sluggish, cold - repairs are increasing, leading to a further contraction in supply. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level for the same period. The glass market is expected to show a mainly weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1067 yuan/ton to 1087 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The spot price of Shahe Safety large plates increased from 932 yuan/ton to 940 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The main basis changed from - 135 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton, an 8.89% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 940 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content in the provided text about glass production profit other than it being in a low - profit state with further cold - repair expectations [4]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 212, with an operating rate of 71.62%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 150700 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [25][4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet for float glass shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons; in 2024E, the production was expected to reach 55.1 million tons, and the consumption was expected to be 53.1 million tons [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental outlook, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply is at a low level due to increased cold - repairs, while downstream demand from deep - processing plants is dismal, and factory inventories are high [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1096 yuan/ton to 1086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91%. The spot price of Shahe safety large - plate remained unchanged at 936 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased from - 160 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.25% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 936 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost - Glass production profit has weak recovery, which is a factor leading to increased cold - repairs in the industry [2][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 216, with an operating rate of 71.96%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity is 150,100 tons, also at a historical low for the same period [18][20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The cash - collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [24][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 53.013 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.51% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][40]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different fluctuations. For example, in 2024E, the expected production is 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94%, and the expected consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [41].

Report Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Core View - Due to the long - term losses in the glass production line, there is an expectation of further contraction in supply. However, the real estate demand has not improved, and short - term market sentiment has cooled. The short - term glass price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and the cold repair of production lines [3] Market行情回顾 Futures Market - The glass main contract opened high and closed low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a tightening horn shape, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 167,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,859 lots. The intraday high was 1,102, the low was 1,081, and the closing price was 1,096, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.06% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - The transaction was okay, and some manufacturers held up prices. In North China, the shipment of manufacturers in Shahe varied, and the overall production and sales were okay. In East China, there was little change, the overall shipment slowed down, enterprises kept prices stable, and downstream enthusiasm was average. In Central China, there was still a wait - and - see sentiment in the market, the manufacturer's shipment was average, and it was mainly for rigid demand. In South China, an individual enterprise did not raise prices for individual specifications, and most of the others remained stable, with cautious procurement [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 76 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Supply - As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is in a downward trend, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - improvement orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses in the glass production line have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real estate demand has not improved. In general, short - term market sentiment has cooled and coal prices have fallen, causing the glass to weaken in the short term. But cold - repair will continue before the Spring Festival, and supply is still expected to contract further. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and production line cold - repair [3]