德勤首席经济学家Ian Stewart在给客户的一份研究报告中写道，英国就业市场放缓的迹象可能会促使今 年晚些时候进一步降息。Stewart表示，在失业率上升和职位空缺减少的情况下，持续强劲的薪资上涨 是一个亮点。"但由于雇主在招聘方面持谨慎态度，失业率可能会继续上升，而薪资增长将开始放 缓，"他说。"劳动力市场走弱可能会强化今年晚些时候进一步降息的理由。" ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates until the end of the year and has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession [1] - The European Central Bank will maintain its aggressive stimulus policies from the past decade during its strategic assessment, avoiding calls for self-criticism after experiencing high inflation and significant losses [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England, expecting the rate cut to be less than 50 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, stated that if the global economy shows signs of recovery, Japan's economy is likely to rebound, which would enhance overall inflation and inflation expectations [1] - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint against the U.S. dollar was raised by 75 points to 7.1991, marking the highest level since April 7, 2025, with the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.8 trillion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation today, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1]

摩根士丹利：目前预计英国央行将在12月降息；维持年终银行利率在3.25%的预期不变。 ...

分析师：英国央行降息的空间远小于市场目前的预期 金十数据5月8日讯，伦敦施罗德高级经济学家乔治•布朗表示："今天的利率决定对任何人来说都不足为 奇。但展望未来，英国央行降息的空间远小于市场目前的预期。对英国来说，根本问题是它继续面临相 当大的产能限制。因此，由于生产率令人失望和工资增长不稳定，今年晚些时候通胀似乎将再次上升。 在我们看来，英国央行在本轮降息周期中只将利率降至4%左右" ...

Core Viewpoint - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by an additional 75 basis points within the year, with three expected cuts of 25 basis points each [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Robert Wood, has revised down the GDP growth predictions for the UK, now expecting growth rates of 0.9% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.1% and 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - Despite a drop in the March inflation rate to 2.6%, it is anticipated that inflation will significantly rebound in the coming months, potentially reaching 3.4% in the second quarter and only decreasing to 3.3% by the end of the year [1] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Stance - The majority of data since the last forecast assessment suggests that the MPC will maintain a cautious stance, influenced by global economic disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs under President Trump [1] Interest Rate Cuts Timeline - The expected timeline for the interest rate cuts includes consecutive reductions in May and June, followed by a final cut in November [1]

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points by the Bank of England is being considered due to changing economic conditions since the last meeting in March [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and signs of economic slowdown, particularly the decline in US GDP quarterly data, have shifted focus towards larger rate cuts [1] - The current UK CPI inflation has reached target levels, which supports the argument for a potential rate cut [1] MPC Committee Insights - Analysts expect MPC members Dhingra and Mann to support a 50 basis point cut, indicating a possibility for a larger unexpected cut [1] - However, the majority is predicted to favor a smaller cut of 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.25% [1]

道明证券：如果英国央行暗示更激进的降息，英镑将面临打击 金十数据5月7日讯，道明证券分析师在一份报告中称，如果英国央行周四的政策决定暗示将加大降息力 度，英镑可能走弱。他们表示，英国央行可能以8票赞成、1票反对的投票结果决定降息25个基点，政策 制定者丁格拉可能投票赞成降息50个基点。在贸易不确定性加剧的情况下，英国央行还可能下调经济增 长预期，并从进一步降息的指引中删除"逐步"一词。"通胀水平低于市场预期和货币政策报告的预测， 这让成员们对继续降息充满信心。" ...

金十数据5月2日讯，荷兰国际集团经济学家James Smith在一份报告中说，英国央行可能会以低于市场 预期的速度降息，坚持每季度降息一次。市场普遍预期英国央行将在5月降息25个基点至4.25%。英国 经济仍具有弹性，服务业通胀居高不下，这使得英国央行不太可能急于降息。我们认为短期内不会如此 迅速地采取行动，但我们也认为，到2026年，利率还有走低的空间 英国央行降息速度可能慢于市场预期 ...

英国4月房价意外下跌 政策支撑退场与美国关税冲击市场 金十数据4月30日讯，英国最大抵押贷款机构之一表示，4月份英国房价出现近两年来最大跌幅，此前针 对购房者的税收优惠到期，消费者信心因美国关税而大幅下挫。数据显示，英国4月房价在前月持平后 下跌0.6%，同比上涨了3.4%。这是8个月来的首次月度价格下跌，也是自2023年8月以来的最大月度下 跌。这些数据表明，房地产市场迎来了一个充满挑战的春天。4月1日印花税减免政策到期导致交易成本 上升，特朗普全面征收关税引发的经济前景恶化也打击了购房者。不过，未来几个月需求仍可能得到支 撑，因预期英国央行将进一步降息，抵押贷款成本将下降。 ...