金十数据7月11日讯，荷兰国际银行分析师James Smith警告说，英国央行可能不得不考虑加快降息步 伐。此前，英国经济5月份意外连续第二个月出现萎缩。虽然从0.1%的收缩就断定英国经济正在衰退是 错误的，但最近的就业市场数据显示，英国正承受着严重的压力。James Smith表示，英国央行自去年 以来一直坚持非常缓慢的降息步伐，但其目前对劳动力市场的看法可能过于乐观。风险显然倾向于在年 底前更频繁地降息。 荷兰国际银行：英国央行可能需要更快降息以支撑疲软经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest UK monthly GDP data is weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August [1] Economic Data Summary - The UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, indicating economic weakness [1] - Weakness in the services and manufacturing sectors contributed to this contraction, highlighting the fragility of the post-inflation recovery [1] Central Bank Implications - The Bank of England may interpret this data as a signal that the monetary environment is exerting pressure on the economy, potentially leading to a vote in favor of an interest rate cut in August [1]

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated economic slowdown and uncertainty in tax revenue from the autumn budget [1] Economic Outlook - Economic activity in the UK is expected to decline in the coming months, prompting the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates faster than market expectations [1] - The current benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.25% by the end of the year [1]

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound may weaken if upcoming UK data is disappointing, despite the Bank of England's gradual rate cut approach [1] - Analysts at ING expect two more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with market expectations potentially adjusting for more cuts if data is weak [1] - The recent decision by the Bank of England to maintain interest rates with a 6-3 vote indicates a slightly dovish stance, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - ING forecasts that the EUR/GBP exchange rate may rise to around 0.8600 in the near term [1]

Group 1 - Traders have increased their bets on the Bank of England lowering interest rates in August, with the probability of a rate cut reaching 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England may hint at a potential interest rate cut in August due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation, despite rising energy prices from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Tickmill Group suggest that the upcoming interest rate decision may indicate a possible rate cut in August [1] - Recent data shows a softening labor market in the UK and a reduction in inflation, raising questions about the Bank of England's outlook [1] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased energy prices, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Bank of England to maintain the interest rate at 4.25% in the upcoming statement [1]

智通财经6月18日电，交易员小幅降低英国央行降息押注，预计年底前将下调47个基点。 ...

交易员略微减少了对英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将累计降息47个基点。 ...