Core Viewpoint - The decline in UK GDP provides further justification for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate cut in August [1] Economic Performance - The GDP shrank by 0.3% in April, supporting the view that the 0.7% growth in the first quarter was unsustainable [1] - Second-quarter data may exaggerate economic weakness, alleviating concerns about a recession [1] External Factors - New tariffs and domestic companies cutting spending to offset increased costs from tax hikes in April are expected to drag on the economy due to weak overseas demand [1] - Despite these challenges, the current economic conditions are not sufficient to prompt an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week [1]

智通财经6月12日电，GDP数据公布后，交易员对英国央行今年降息的押注升至52个基点。 ...

金十数据6月10日讯，IFR市场分析师Divyang Shah表示，周二公布的英国劳动力市场数据强化了市场对 英国央行降息的预期，但预计英国央行仍将按季度降息。目前8月会议降息的概率为75%（数据公布前 为60%），11月为65%（数据公布前为55%）。数据显示，就业和工资增长放缓，劳动力市场进一步走 软反映去年10月预算案中国民保险缴费上调及最低工资提升的滞后影响。相较于上月货币政策委员会 （MPC）三派分歧（7-2-0投票结果），最新数据推动政策天平向"季度性降息"倾斜。5月支持降息的5 位委员均基于"薪资增速年底前将显著放缓"的判断。 分析师：英国劳动力数据强化降息预期，但季度性宽松节奏不改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy is showing signs of accelerated cooling, which may prompt the Bank of England to expedite interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The hiring intentions in the UK are weakening, as noted by Jack Kennedy, a senior economist at Indeed [1] - Recent data from the Office for National Statistics indicates that wage growth and employment declines have exceeded expectations, suggesting a faster-than-anticipated economic slowdown [1] Group 2: Government Policies - Government policies such as increased minimum wage, new worker protection measures, and higher employer tax burdens are suppressing companies' willingness to hire [1] - The cautious sentiment in the labor market is exacerbated by global adverse factors and uncertainties surrounding worker rights legislation, contributing to rising employer costs in April [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that UK retail sales data for April exceeded expectations, yet the British pound showed little change [1] - Ebury analyst Phil Monkhouse noted that while the retail sales data is encouraging, the higher-than-expected inflation in April may limit the likelihood of the Bank of England lowering interest rates in the coming months [1]

巴克莱：预计英国央行在6月不会降息，之前的预测为降息25个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite higher-than-expected inflation data in the UK, the possibility of a Bank of England rate cut in August should not be ruled out [1] - UK inflation rate increased from 2.6% in March to 3.5% in April, surpassing the economists' forecast of 3.4% [1] - The rise in service sector inflation is largely attributed to one-off factors, indicating potential improvement in underlying inflation trends [1] Group 2 - The UK money market has not fully priced in expectations for a rate cut in November, suggesting uncertainty in future monetary policy [1] - LSEG data indicates a low probability of a rate cut in June, with only a 43% chance for a cut in August [1]

金十数据5月21日讯，财经网站Forexlive分析师：英国CPI公布后，目前的市场定价显示，2025年剩余时 间的降息幅度为34个基点，而英国CPI公布前的预期为41个基点。市场完全定价11月会进行降息，在我 看来，这仍然有点高，我预计英国央行和其他主要央行在未来几周和几个月内将面临更强硬的重新定 价。 交易员削减英国央行降息押注，倾向于年内仅再降息一次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK interest rate futures indicate an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of England of approximately 35 basis points by the end of 2025, a slight decrease from the previous expectation of 36 basis points prior to the release of UK inflation data [1] Group 1 - The anticipated interest rate cut reflects market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of England [1] - The change in expected rate cut from 36 basis points to 35 basis points suggests a minor shift in market sentiment following the inflation data release [1] - The timeline for the expected rate cut is set for the end of 2025, indicating a longer-term outlook for monetary policy in the UK [1]

新华财经北京5月21日电（王姝睿） 数据公司Brightmine发布的数据显示，在截至4月的三个月里，英国 雇主加薪幅度维持在3%的水平，但有迹象表示，许多公司现在的加薪幅度减小。 英国的薪资增幅已连续第五个滚动季度保持在3%，为2021年12月以来最弱。英国央行官员正在关注雇 主对社保缴款（在英国被称为国民保险）上调和全国最低工资大幅上涨的反应。这两项措施都在4月生 效，而4月是达成薪酬协议的关键月份。 Brightmine称，在其调查的雇主中，近一半的加薪幅度低于中位数3%。Brightmine此次分析涵盖了136项 在截至4月30日三个月内生效的薪资协议，涉及约30.9万名员工。 Brightmine人力资源洞察和数据主管Sheila Attwood说，薪资待遇保持稳定的表面之下，许多英国企业选 择了更低的加薪幅度，因此整体中位数在未来几个月可能会下降，低迷的薪资协议模式表明，面对将持 续到今年下半年的持续成本压力，许多雇主在做出薪资决定时仍持谨慎态度。 在考虑是否加快降息步伐之际，英国央行正在密切关注英国劳动力市场的通胀压力。英国央行可能对加 薪幅度下降表示欢迎。英国央行希望看到就业市场的通胀压力得到 ...