| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound may weaken if upcoming UK data is disappointing, despite the Bank of England's gradual rate cut approach [1] - Analysts at ING expect two more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with market expectations potentially adjusting for more cuts if data is weak [1] - The recent decision by the Bank of England to maintain interest rates with a 6-3 vote indicates a slightly dovish stance, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - ING forecasts that the EUR/GBP exchange rate may rise to around 0.8600 in the near term [1]

Group 1 - Traders have increased their bets on the Bank of England lowering interest rates in August, with the probability of a rate cut reaching 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England may hint at a potential interest rate cut in August due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation, despite rising energy prices from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Tickmill Group suggest that the upcoming interest rate decision may indicate a possible rate cut in August [1] - Recent data shows a softening labor market in the UK and a reduction in inflation, raising questions about the Bank of England's outlook [1] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased energy prices, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Bank of England to maintain the interest rate at 4.25% in the upcoming statement [1]

智通财经6月18日电，交易员小幅降低英国央行降息押注，预计年底前将下调47个基点。 ...

交易员略微减少了对英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将累计降息47个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year in May, aligning with the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast [1] - The service sector inflation rate decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, meeting the BoE's expectations, indicating a key indicator of domestic price pressures [1] - The rise in food prices, including chocolate and meat, offset declines in airfare and fuel prices, contributing to the overall inflation picture [1] Economic Implications - Following the data release, the British pound continued to strengthen, with the market pricing in two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the BoE this year [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran may complicate future decisions by the BoE, as oil prices have surged approximately 14% over the past week [1] - While investors and economists believe the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Thursday meeting is low, the August meeting may still allow for further actions [1]

金十数据6月17日讯，Saltus投资经理Tom Matterson在一份报告中说，如果英国通胀继续回落，英国央 行可能在未来几个月继续降息。市场普遍预计英国央行将在周四的利率决定中维持利率在4.25%不变。 但疲弱的劳动力市场数据和不断放缓的工资增长表明，进一步降息的大门仍然敞开。 机构：英国央行可能在未来几个月继续降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in UK GDP provides further justification for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate cut in August [1] Economic Performance - The GDP shrank by 0.3% in April, supporting the view that the 0.7% growth in the first quarter was unsustainable [1] - Second-quarter data may exaggerate economic weakness, alleviating concerns about a recession [1] External Factors - New tariffs and domestic companies cutting spending to offset increased costs from tax hikes in April are expected to drag on the economy due to weak overseas demand [1] - Despite these challenges, the current economic conditions are not sufficient to prompt an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week [1]

智通财经6月12日电，GDP数据公布后，交易员对英国央行今年降息的押注升至52个基点。 ...