Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to improved market risk appetite and easing global trade tensions, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 27, spot gold is trading below $4083, currently at $4070.17 per ounce, down 0.99% from previous levels, with a high of $4108.19 and a low of $4053.29 [1] - Last week, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45%, closing at $4126.90 per ounce [2] - The gold market experienced profit-taking after reaching historical highs, with a peak of $4382.3 before a significant pullback [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in air traffic control, with over 5300 flights delayed on October 25 alone, exacerbating the situation due to staff shortages [2] - Economic forecasts indicate that if the government shutdown continues, the U.S. GDP could lose approximately $15 billion weekly [3] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, slightly below expectations, with an annual inflation rate of 3.0% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices is primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand stemming from improved U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical risk alleviation [3] - While short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential for a Federal Reserve easing cycle and lingering risks [3]

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in September, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest level since May 2024 [1][3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a 97% probability of rates dropping from the current range of 4%-4.25% to 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [1][3] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4% for CPI and 0.3% for core CPI, with analysts noting that service prices, particularly housing, are cooling while goods inflation may accelerate due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, making the September inflation data critical for Federal Reserve decision-making [4] - Analysts suggest that a significant upward surprise in the core CPI could lead to a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts in December, potentially strengthening the dollar against other major currencies [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for the dollar index (DXY), with key resistance levels identified at 99.50 and potential further gains towards 100.00 and 100.80 [4]

智通财经APP获悉，根据一项对经济学家的调查显示，欧洲央行预计在2027年年底前，将欧元区借贷利 率维持在2%的水平。 此项预测包含两重信息：一是下周货币政策会议将维持存款利率不变;二是不排除后续采取进一步行 动。具体来看，三分之一的受访者预计，在目前已实施八次降息的基础上，央行至少还会再降息一次; 另有17%的受访者认为，到明年年底前，央行可能会进行一次或多次加息。 12月的货币政策会议被视为关键节点，此次会议将首次纳入2028年的经济预测数据。 虽然，以行长拉加德为首的欧洲央行官员，近期似乎无意调整利率。他们表示，对当前消费者物价上涨 速度和欧洲经济的韧性感到满意，并认为当前的货币政策处于"理想状态"，能够灵活应对新出现的挑 战。 但潜在挑战仍不容忽视。欧洲正处于美中贸易紧张局势重启的夹缝中，此次争端聚焦于半导体和稀土领 域;同时，信用评级下调使法国的财政困境进一步复杂化，外界对德国大规模基建与国防投资计划的实 际效果也开始产生质疑。 与此同时，欧洲大陆新碳排放交易体系的潜在延迟，可能会在未来几年对通胀构成压力;而资产估值过 高的问题，也加剧了市场对潜在崩盘风险的担忧。 | | in 3 months | ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's central bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes due to low core inflation and uncertainties stemming from external factors like tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The current core inflation rate in Japan is reported at 2.7%, while the policy interest rate is only 0.5%, indicating a significant gap [4] - The former Bank of Japan governor, Shirakawa, emphasizes that the central bank's hesitance is largely due to potential negative reactions in the financial markets [3] - Concerns about accumulated risks in the financial system, which have persisted under a zero interest rate policy for the past 30 years, contribute to the cautious approach [3] Group 2: Economic Context - Shirakawa argues that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is not solely due to deflation but is fundamentally linked to a declining population and the economy's adaptation to globalization and technological changes [4] - He suggests that Japan's GDP growth per capita has actually outpaced that of the United States, challenging the narrative that deflation is the primary issue [4] - The advice given to China is to focus on supply-side solutions rather than relying on monetary easing strategies [4]

希腊雅通社10月9日报道，希腊统计局数据显示，希腊9月通胀率显著放缓至1.9%，低于8月的2.9% 及2024年9月的2.9%。下降受益于能源价格下跌（电力和天然气下降3.7%和10.2%），部分食品价格有 所回落（如橄榄油下降37.1%）。然而，咖啡（19.8%）、巧克力（22.2%）、肉类（8.4%）、鱼类 （6.2%）、服装鞋类（5.2%）、住房租金（9.9%）、航空客运（12.6%）、度假套餐（6.7%）及健康保 险费（7%）的涨幅较为显著。 （原标题：希腊9月通胀率降至1.9%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Greece's economy will demonstrate strong resilience, with a projected GDP growth of 2% in 2025, nearly double the average growth rate of the Eurozone [1] Economic Growth - Greece's GDP is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and maintain the same growth rate in 2026, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] - This growth rate is nearly double the average for the Eurozone, highlighting Greece's strong economic performance [1] Inflation - The IMF predicts an inflation rate of 3.1% for Greece in 2025, which is above the Eurozone average [1] - Inflation is expected to decrease to 2.5% in 2026, with the goal of reaching 2% by 2027 [1] Unemployment - The unemployment rate in Greece is projected to improve, with expectations of a decline to 9% this year and further down to 8.4% by 2026 [1] - This trend indicates a positive labor market outlook as the economy continues to recover [1]

Core Insights - The chief economist of the UK research institution CEPR, Dean Baker, suggests that the US September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to that of August [1] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the energy component increased by 0.7%, and a similar rapid growth is expected for September [1] - The food component for households rose by 0.6% in August, with a potential slowdown in growth for September [1] - The core CPI month-on-month rate for September is anticipated to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both the overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] Implications for Federal Reserve - The inflation level may be less concerning than its direction of change for the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a likelihood of rising inflation rates until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented affecting more industries [1] - It is difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term unless a significant recession occurs [1]

然而，即将于周五公布的9月CPI报告将成为市场关注的焦点。报告预计显示核心通胀率维持在3.1%， 若数据符合或低于预期，可能进一步强化降息预期，支撑金价反弹。反之，若通胀数据超预期，可能引 发市场对美联储放缓降息步伐的担忧，对金价构成压力，尽管通胀仍高于目标，但劳动力市场的疲软表 现是美联储政策考量的重点，这可能确保降息路径的延续。 地缘政治局势：俄乌冲突与美中关系的影响地缘政治的不确定性一直是推动金价上涨的关键驱动力。近 期，俄乌冲突的动态引发市场高度关注。俄罗斯方面表示，普京与特朗普的会晤计划被暂时搁置，而乌 克兰则表达了通过外交途径支持停火的意愿。尽管和平前景为市场带来一丝乐观情绪，但俄军对乌克兰 能源基础设施的持续打击以及北约对俄罗斯的强硬表态，表明地缘政治风险远未消散。此外，欧盟最新 一轮对俄制裁以及美国对俄罗斯石油公司的制裁计划，进一步加剧了全球市场的紧张情绪。这些因素为 黄金的避险需求提供了潜在支撑。 周四（10月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4195美元/盎司附近。鉴于金价过去几周 的显著上涨，在美国消费者物价指数（CPI）报告发布前出现获利回吐并不意外。技术面上，金价在 40 ...

来源：中国新闻网 9月，南非燃油价格基本保持稳定；剔除食品、燃料等波动性项目，核心CPI也小幅上升，从3.1%升至 3.2%，通胀仍处于央行目标区间下沿。 高盛南非经济学家安德鲁·马西尼(Andrew Matheny)表示："自9月以来的通胀走势温和，这将支持央行在 11月货币政策委员会会议上考虑降息25个基点。" 南非储备银行今年已连续三次降息，但在9月的货币政策会议上暂停降息。南非储备银行的下一次政策 声明定于11月20日发布。 多位经济学家指出，兰特走强、通胀预期回落以及经济增长乏力，均可能促使南非储备银行进一步放松 货币政策。(完) 南非9月通胀率微升至3.4% 中新社约翰内斯堡10月22日电 (记者 孙翔)南非统计局22日公布数据显示，9月消费者价格指数(CPI)环比 上涨0.2%，年度通胀率升至3.4%，高于8月份的3.3%。此次通胀小幅上升，主要受住房与公用事业、餐 饮及住宿服务等领域价格上涨带动。 南非食品价格通胀略有回调，9月份同比降至4.4%，低于8月份的5.2%。这一走势与国际农产品价格下 行相符。此外，兰特环比升值1.5%，也帮助本地市场缓解了输入性通胀压力。 并非所有食品类别价格都出 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic forecasts for Uzbekistan, indicating an increase in both economic growth and inflation for the years 2025-2026 [1] Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan in 2025 has been raised from 6.5% to 6.8% [1] - For 2026, the GDP growth forecast has been adjusted from 5.8% to 6% [1] Inflation Rates - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has increased from 8.4% to 9.1% [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been revised from 6.5% to 7.1% [1] Current Account Deficit - The current account deficit is expected to improve due to rising global gold prices, with the 2025 deficit projected to be approximately 2.4% of GDP, down from a previous estimate of 5% [1] - For 2026, the current account deficit is forecasted to be around 4.6% of GDP, slightly lower than the earlier prediction of 4.8% [1]