Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "dot plot" indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, lowering the policy rate range to 4.00%-4.25%, which is more dovish than previous expectations, suggesting a relief from stagflation risks [1] - The latest economic forecast shows a year-end inflation rate median of 3%, above the 2% target but unchanged from the previous quarter; the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.5%, and economic growth is slightly increased from 1.4% to 1.6% [1] - The Federal Reserve is shifting its view on the temporary impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, prioritizing the prevention of economic slowdown and rising unemployment, which provides a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - On the day of reporting, the Shanghai gold price fell by 1.78%, closing at 824.1 yuan per gram [3] - According to GF Futures, the market interpreted the Federal Reserve's rate decision as neutral, with the dollar index rebounding after a decline; since September, precious metal prices have rapidly surged and reached new highs, indicating overbought conditions [4] - The outlook suggests that with increasing risks in the U.S. job market, the Federal Reserve's policy path exhibits dual characteristics of "strengthened expectations and compromised independence," which continues to suppress the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [4]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates a further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - There is a divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with varying views on the extent and timing of potential reductions [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is in line with market expectations [1] - The median prediction suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, with differing opinions among officials on the number and magnitude of future cuts [1] Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for the year, projecting a median inflation rate of 3% and an unemployment rate of 4.5% [1] - Economic growth expectations have been revised upward from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year [1] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the DXY dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while non-USD currencies rose collectively [1] - Spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3700 per ounce, and U.S. stock markets initially rose before retreating, indicating increased bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point reduction in the policy interest rate to 2.50% on September 17, 2023, in response to rising unemployment and inflation nearing 2% [1][2] - The Canadian economy showed signs of slowing growth, with a projected 1.5% decline in real GDP for Q2, significantly impacted by tariffs and trade uncertainties [2] - The unemployment rate increased to 7.1% in August, with job losses concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among businesses [2][3] Group 2 - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate was reported at 1.9%, with core inflation indicators around 3%, indicating a potential easing of price pressures due to the recent removal of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports [3] - The Bank of Canada aims to balance risks in a weakening economy with low inflationary pressures, focusing on maintaining public confidence in price stability while supporting economic growth [3]

当地时间9月17日，欧盟统计局发布的第二次估值数据显示，欧元区8月通胀率按年率计算为2.0%，略 低于此前公布的初步统计数据2.1%，与7月持平。数据还显示，欧盟整体8月通胀率按年率计算为 2.4%，同样与7月持平。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

当地时间17日，据英国国家统计局数据，英国8月通胀率为3.8%，和7月通胀率相比保持不变。其中食 品价格的同比涨幅从4.9%提高至5.1%，连续第5个月上涨。 英国央行预计，商品价格将持续上涨，通胀率或在9月达到4%。（总台记者 杨兢兢） ...

近期英镑/美元走势呈现震荡状态。连续两天上涨后，汇率在盘中出现回落，反映市场在消化前期涨幅 的同时，也在等待新的经济数据和政策信号。分析人士指出，汇率短期波动主要受英国和美国经济数 据，以及央行政策预期影响。 9月17日周三，亚市盘中，英镑/美元在连续两天上涨后出现回落，目前交投于1.3640附近。市场在等待 英国消费者价格指数（CPI）和零售价格指数（RPI）公布之际，英镑出现小幅调整，同时投资者也关 注当天晚些时候美联储（Fed）的政策决定。 英国8月份CPI预计显示，总体通胀率同比从3.8%升至3.9%，月度通胀率则预计从0.1%升至0.3%。如果 通胀压力有所加速，将引发市场对英国央行（BoE）未来货币政策路径的关注。分析人士认为，英国央 行可能在下一次利率决策中维持在4%的水平。 美国方面，经济数据显示消费者支出依然强劲。8月份零售销售环比增长0.6%，好于市场预期的0.2%， 其中零售销售控制组和汽车零售销售均增长0.7%，超过预期的0.4%。这一数据表明，美国消费者在通 胀高企和劳动力市场略显疲软的情况下，仍保持较高的支出水平。 市场对美联储未来政策预期高度关注。摩根士丹利和德意志银行预测，美联 ...

Economic Data Summary - In August 2025, the annual inflation rate in the U.S. accelerated to 2.9%, the highest since January, compared to 2.7% in June and July, aligning with market expectations [1] - Food prices saw the largest increase at 3.2%, up from 2.9% the previous month, while used car and truck prices rose by 6%, compared to 4.8% last month [1] - Energy prices increased by 0.2% for the first time in seven months, contrasting with a decline of 1.6% last month [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 3.1%, with a monthly increase of 0.3% [1] Labor Market Insights - The first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, significantly exceeding market expectations of 235,000 [3] - The number of continuing unemployment claims remained at 1.939 million, slightly below the expected 1.95 million but still above the average since 2021 [3] - The disappointing employment data has heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, shifting the focus from "whether to cut" to "how much to cut" [3] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates for the second consecutive meeting, indicating that the process of reducing inflation has "ended," suggesting a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 was revised upward from 0.9% to 1.2%, while inflation expectations were slightly adjusted upward for 2025 to 2.1% [5] Market Reactions - Gold prices reached a new high at $3,647.1 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.36%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.72% and 0.85%, respectively [9] - Chinese stocks and concepts received positive market sentiment, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.89%, outperforming the Nasdaq index [9] Conclusion - The combination of rising inflation and weakening labor market data in the U.S. has intensified expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [10] - The ECB's decision to pause rate cuts and its upward revision of economic forecasts have strengthened the euro against the dollar, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [10] - The market is responding to these economic signals, with a notable increase in risk appetite and capital inflows into Chinese stocks [10]

Group 1 - The market anticipates a 95.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 4.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and no probability for maintaining or increasing rates [1] - There are two main viewpoints on why the market is optimistic about a rate cut: one suggests pressure from President Trump is a key factor, while the other argues that the Federal Reserve operates as a collective decision-making body, independent of Trump's influence [2][3] - Trump's economic policy aims to increase government spending while minimizing taxes, which necessitates lower interest rates to manage the cost of new debt issuance [4][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has not cut rates this year due to concerns about inflation and unemployment, but current economic conditions suggest that a rate cut is warranted [5][6] - The expected pace of rate cuts will depend on inflation trends; if inflation remains stable, the Fed may implement cuts of 50 basis points each quarter, while any signs of inflation rebound could lead to smaller cuts [7][8] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair next year could shift the balance towards a more dovish stance, possibly accelerating the pace of rate cuts [8]

来源：暴走的大探 9月11日，欧洲央行行长拉加德，德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部：维持利率在 2%不变。道。 "我们继续处于良好状态。" 通胀率"达到了我们希望的水平"，国内经济稳健，而且在美国达成一系列关税协议后，全球贸易的不确 定性有所缓解。 "但我们并没有走上预先确定的道路。" ====== 欧洲央行维持利率不变 ======= 既然讲了美国，再讲讲欧洲吧。 通胀也不光是美国。 ======= 预测还显示，核心通胀率预计为 1.8%，均低于欧洲央行 2% 的目标。 ——这个预测说明欧洲经济明年有风险呐~~~~衰退。 因为关税冲击嘛。 这不两大发动机，德国肯定衰退，法国债务危机吗。 欧元区8月CPI同比上涨2.1%，高于7月份的2.0%，符合经济学家预期。剔除能源和食品等波动性项目的 核心通胀率则稳定在2.3%。 ——温和通胀是2.0%，核心通胀率也是在2%左右最好，能实现充分就业。 所以欧元区其实已经完成"抗通胀"任务了。 所以拉加德说"达到了我们希望的水平"。 美国还没达到。 ====== 不过，"没有走上预先确定的道路"，是说也没那么好。 最新预测显示，欧元区2027 年通胀率预计为 1.9%，低于 6 ...

（原标题：希腊8月通胀率降至3.1%） 希腊《每日报》9月2日报道，根据欧盟统计局2日发布的初步估计，希腊8月调和消费者价格指数 （HICP）增长3.1%，低于7月份的3.7%，而欧元区平均通胀率则从7月份的2%小幅上升至2.1%。希腊8 月通胀率与欧元区平均水平的差距大幅缩小。希腊通胀率环比下降0.6%，为欧元区降幅最大的国家。 ...