尽管数据显示初请失业金人数增加，进一步表明劳动力市场正在放缓，但稳健的制造业采购经理人指数 却促使交易员减少了对降息的押注。货币市场显示，9月份降息的可能性约为65%。而一周前，这一几 率还在90%以上。 目前所有人的目光都集中在美联储年度研讨会上，主席鲍威尔定于周五发表讲话。交易员将密切关注他 的讲话，以寻找近期就业市场疲软后9月份降息的任何线索。 来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 贸易方面，美国和欧盟周四敲定了上个月达成的框架协议。 与此同时，美国司法部暗示可能计划调查美联储理事库克，一位高级官员鼓励鲍威尔将她从美联储理事 名单中除名。特朗普总统的住房金融主管普尔特呼吁对她涉嫌在2021年达成的抵押贷款协议展开调查。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在内的多位政策 制定者都保持谨慎态度，并承认需要继续依赖数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates soon due to a slowing labor market and the assessment that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation has been gradually decreasing in the absence of tariffs, and with the economic slowdown and restrictive monetary policy, inflation is expected to continue its downward trend [1] - Although tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, their long-term impact is unlikely to be significant [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and further slowdown in this area is concerning [1] - A decline in the labor market can happen quickly and severely, indicating potential risks for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The current economic indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policies in the coming months [1]

美联储卡什卡利：看到劳动力市场放缓并不意外。劳工局数据和私营部门数据讲述的是同一个故事。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has sharply cooled over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in the labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data Summary - In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, while the previous two months' job gains were revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [1] Labor Market Conditions - The data suggests that the labor market is not only slowing down but also that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find jobs [1] - Wage growth has essentially stagnated, adding further risk to already slowing consumer and business spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey has indicated signs of economic and labor market slowdown in the UK [1] Group 2 - The economic indicators suggest a potential deceleration in growth, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - Labor market conditions are showing signs of weakening, which could lead to changes in employment rates and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates is becoming increasingly clear, influenced by several key factors [1] - The Fed's policy stance is subtly shifting, with multiple officials signaling a potential rate cut, particularly in September [1] - Trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, with the impact of tariffs on the economy being less than previously expected, supporting inflation stability [1] - The labor market is showing signs of a comprehensive slowdown, with rising unemployment claims and a declining employment-population ratio, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift [1] - The market is beginning to price in the potential impact of leadership changes at the Fed, reflected in unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market expectations suggest a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points by year-end, with a total adjustment of 130 basis points for terminal rates [2] - The financial conditions index (FCI) has eased by 140 basis points since April, providing approximately 1.4 percentage points of additional support for economic growth [2] - A "loose cycle" is forming between the stock and foreign exchange markets, with significant implications for the balance of financial conditions [2] - The impact of preemptive fiscal stimulus measures is expected to last until 2026, contributing an estimated 0.9 percentage points to GDP [2] Group 3 - While short-term monetary policy may support economic growth, long-term risks of macroeconomic imbalance may increase [3] - The trading team suggests a phased strategy for investors, capitalizing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of yield rebound risks later in the year [3] - Key uncertainties include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, potential market overreactions to Fed leadership changes, and risks associated with the monetization of fiscal deficits [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey believes there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 245,000, remaining near an eight-month high, aligning with economists' median forecasts [1][5] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits also saw a minor decline to 1.95 million, indicating a prolonged duration for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1][5] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with a consistent increase in continuing claims over the past two months, reflecting reduced hiring and longer unemployment durations [5] Group 2 - Economic indicators suggest a cooling demand across various sectors, with a notable report indicating that new housing starts in May dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic began [5] - The four-week moving average for initial jobless claims rose to 245,500, marking the highest level since August 2023, indicating increased volatility in the data [5] - States like Illinois, California, and Georgia experienced the most significant declines in initial jobless claims, highlighting regional variations in labor market conditions [5]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased slightly but remains near the highest level in eight months [1] - For the week ending June 14, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 245,000, while continuing claims also saw a slight decline to 1.95 million [1] - Overall, the increase in unemployment claims over the past two months indicates a gradual slowdown in the labor market [1]