2月10日，即将发布的美国1月非农就业报告信息量比以往更为密集。美国1月非农就业报告原定于2月6 日发布，但因部分政府部门停摆而被推迟。这份报告将揭示美国劳动力市场近年放缓的程度——甚至可 能显示其增长已陷入停滞。除了常规的月度非农就业新增人数和失业率数据外，将于周三发布的1月非 农报告还包含备受期待的年度非农就业人数修订。初步估计显示，截至2025年3月的年度就业人数将出 现创纪录的91.1万人的向下修正，预计此次修订将显示就业增长速度的大幅放缓。BMO资本市场首席 美国经济学家斯科特·安德森表示："今年的年度数据修订将比以往更具影响力。目前劳动力市场似乎正 处在净新增就业与可能出现就业流失之间的微妙平衡位置。" 另外，美联储理事沃勒周一表示，随着近期抛售冲击加密资产，特朗普当选后曾提振市场的乐观情绪正 在消退。沃勒称，近期的剧烈波动与监管不确定性以及大型金融机构的风险管理调整有关。沃勒指出， 加密市场的涨跌本属常态，但这一次的波动更凸显出该领域与传统金融体系的深度"纠缠"。随着对冲基 金、交易台以及交易型基金（ETF）等机构资金持续介入，加密资产不再只是散户主导的边缘市场，其 在政策层面的关注度也随之上升 ...

即将公布的美国就业报告意义重大，信息量异常密集，该报告料将揭示，美国劳动力市场近年来究竟放 缓到了什么程度，或者，甚至可能根本没有增长。 这份由美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）编制的报告原定于2月6日发布，但因部分政 府停摆而推迟。 在报告较为常规的部分，根据彭博对经济学家的调查中值预测，1月非农就业人数可能增加6.9万人；失 业率预计维持在4.4%，略低于去年11月触及的4.5%的四年高点。分析师们预计，1月非农就业报告可能 不会改变劳动力市场疲弱的整体图景。 除了常规的月度非农就业和失业率数据外，将于本周三公布的1月就业报告还将包含备受关注的就业数 据修订。此前的初步估计显示，截至2025年3月的一年中，就业人数可能下调91.1万人，创下纪录，这 意味着招聘速度将被大幅下修。 业内人士认为，今年的年度基准修订将比往常更加重要。目前劳动力市场看起来正处在新增就业与可能 出现就业流失之间的临界点上。 每年1月发布就业报告时，BLS都会将非农就业数据与一套更准确但时效性较低的数据进行基准对齐， 即《季度就业与工资普查》（Quarterly Census of Emp ...

这份报告意味着，2026年的开局基本延续了2025年的状态：招聘乏力、裁员不多的"低招低裁"就业环 境。这种局面恐怕难以缓解美联储政策制定者对经济仍需更多支持的担忧。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 美国企业1月新增就业人数不及预期，显示年初劳动力市场继续放缓。ADP研究周三数据显示，私营部 门1月就业仅增加2.2万个岗位，低于市场预期，前一个月数据被下修。 美国自动数据处理公司ADP周三发布的报告显示，1月美国劳动力市场几乎停滞不前，新增就业人数甚 至低于已经相当温和的市场预期。数据显示，私营部门1月仅新增2.2万个岗位。 如果不是教育与医疗服务行业意外增加7.4万个岗位，整体就业将出现负增长。该结果不仅低于12月经 下修后的3.7万个新增岗位，也明显不及道琼斯调查所预期的4.5万个。 今日周四(2月5日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于19596一线上方，今日开盘于23550元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20000元/千克，下跌11.97%，最高触及24570元/千克，最低下探18500元/千克，目前 来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 沪银远期贴水结构未变，沪银溢价维持至3300元/克，国内情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating operation" for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to oscillate. The positive news from the coking coal sector has not spread to other black - series products. Steel is operating in a context of weak supply and demand. With the approaching Spring Festival, the spot market is gradually on holiday, and the futures price is likely to oscillate [1][2] Summary by Related Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 credit market work conference, aiming to build a multi - level financial service system and support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [1] - In January 2026, the US ADP added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000, and the previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000, indicating a continuous slowdown in the US labor market at the beginning of 2026 [1] - The Eurozone's CPI in January 2026 increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [1] Industry Data - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), which was basically flat compared with December 2025 and increased by about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest ADP report indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market at the beginning of 2026, with private sector job growth significantly below expectations [1][4]. Employment Data Summary - In January, the private sector added only 22,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 48,000 and down from 37,000 in December [1][4]. - The goods-producing sector saw a net increase of only 1,000 jobs, with construction adding 9,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs [3]. - The service sector experienced mixed results, with trade/transport/utilities adding 4,000 jobs, financial services increasing by 14,000, education and health services up by 74,000, and leisure and hospitality adding 4,000 jobs [3]. - Conversely, the information sector lost 5,000 jobs, professional/business services decreased by 57,000, and other services fell by 13,000 [3]. - Employment changes by company size showed small businesses (1-49 employees) remained stable, medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) added 41,000 jobs, while large businesses (500+ employees) lost 18,000 jobs [3]. Economic Insights - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson expressed concern over the low growth in hiring, particularly in manufacturing and professional/business services, which have been experiencing job losses since March 2024 [3]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in recent months, the weaker-than-expected job growth in January suggests continued cooling in the labor market [4]. - Wells Fargo's Senior Economist Sarah House noted that the data reflects a stagnant labor market, with no significant improvement or deterioration in hiring trends [4].

美联储副主席杰斐逊：劳动力市场正在放缓，因为整体经济环境变得更加不确定。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the UK labor market is experiencing a slowdown, with rising unemployment rates and stagnant employment levels [1][2] - The unemployment rate in the UK for the period of August to October 2025 is reported at 5.1%, which is higher than the same period last year and also higher than the previous three months [1] - The employment rate during the same period stands at 74.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous year but lower than the preceding three months [1] Group 2 - Employee income growth in the UK is also slowing down, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% excluding bonuses and 4.7% including bonuses for the period of August to October [1] - Wage growth in the private sector has decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while the public sector has seen an increase from 6.6% to 7.6% [1] - The slowdown in the labor market, combined with easing inflation pressures, has led to market expectations that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark interest rate on the 18th [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated increase of only 40,000 jobs compared to 119,000 in September, and an unemployment rate projected to remain at a four-year high of 4.4% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with various indicators such as JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, and ISM manufacturing/services employment components showing reduced labor demand [3] - The temporary federal government shutdown at the end of September to early October may have delayed hiring for some government contractors, potentially impacting November's data [3] - The latest private employment data for November shows a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in over two and a half years, primarily due to layoffs in small businesses [4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings have risen to the highest level in five months, reaching 7.67 million, while layoffs increased to 1.85 million in October, the highest since early 2023 [4] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to be 3.6% year-over-year, reflecting a slowdown in wage growth due to a softening job market [1][7] - The number of initial jobless claims has seen the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, although this may not indicate a substantial weakening of the job market [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but officials may pause further cuts while seeking clearer signals regarding the labor market and inflation [12] - A weak non-farm payroll report could significantly increase market expectations for further rate cuts in January, while unexpectedly strong data may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious approach [12] - The anticipated weak employment report could trigger a classic macro trading pattern, leading to a weaker dollar, stronger gold and U.S. Treasuries, and a structured rise in U.S. equities [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Oscillating downward [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Under pressure and moving downward [1] Core Views of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventory levels, and corporate profitability [1]. - "Shadow Fed Chair" Hassett believes the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points, and would adhere to his own judgment if appointed Fed Chair. He also stated that if inflation rises from 2.5% to 4%, rate cuts would not be possible [3]. - The US October JOLTS report shows that job openings rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a more than two - year high. Economists think the labor market is slowing, and the Fed currently does not view it as a source of inflationary pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,775, down 500 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,846, down 41. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends compared to previous periods [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,546, down 39 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest also changed compared to previous periods [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,810, down 325 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons from the previous day. Aluminum spot import and export profitability showed different trends [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,816, down 5 from the previous day. The alumina prices at Lianyungang and in Australia also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -347, down 5 from the previous day. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,000, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1 - Silver futures continued to decline, with the main contract reported at 13,475.00 yuan/kg, down 1.11%, influenced by profit-taking and interest rate-sensitive sentiment [1] - On Thursday evening, silver prices experienced a significant pullback, with spot silver dropping nearly 3% after reaching a historical high of $58.96, and New York silver futures down 1.93% to $57.49/oz [1] - The market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting, aligning with recent weak employment data [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in over three years, with 191,000 claims reported, below market expectations of 220,000 [2] - The recent sell-off in silver was triggered by a parabolic price increase to record highs, prompting traders to lock in profits, which accelerated as leveraged positions were closed [2] - Silver futures are currently in a corrective phase below trendline resistance, with bullish momentum weakening but still above several moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities [2]