Group 1 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report for January is expected to reveal a significant slowdown in the labor market, potentially indicating stagnation in job growth. The report was delayed due to a government shutdown and will include a notable downward revision of 910,000 jobs for the annual employment figures through March 2025 [1][6]. - BMO Capital Markets' Chief US Economist Scott Anderson emphasized that this year's annual data revision will be more impactful than in previous years, highlighting a delicate balance between net job additions and potential job losses in the labor market [1][6]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller noted that recent sell-offs in the cryptocurrency market are linked to regulatory uncertainties and adjustments in risk management by major financial institutions, indicating a deeper entanglement of the crypto market with the traditional financial system [1][6]. - The involvement of institutional funds, such as hedge funds and ETFs, in the cryptocurrency market is increasing, suggesting that it is no longer solely a retail-driven market and is gaining more attention from policymakers [1][6].

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is significant and expected to reveal the extent of the slowdown in the labor market, with predictions of a non-farm payroll increase of 69,000 jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4% [1][2] - The report will include a notable revision of employment data, with an initial estimate suggesting a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the year ending March 2025, indicating a substantial reduction in hiring speed [1][2] - The annual benchmark revision is deemed more critical this year, as the labor market appears to be at a tipping point between job creation and potential job losses [1][2] Group 2 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will align non-farm employment data with more accurate but less timely data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records [2] - The revisions will reflect updates to the model used by BLS, incorporating business openings and closures, as well as new seasonal adjustment factors, suggesting that the slowdown in hiring may be more severe than previously anticipated [2] - Recent data indicates that announced layoffs by U.S. companies reached the highest level for any January since the worst periods of the Great Recession, while job openings fell to the lowest point since 2020 [2][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights a significant decline in silver futures, with current trading above 19596, opening at 23550 CNY/kg, and a current price of 20000 CNY/kg, reflecting a drop of 11.97% [1] - The highest price reached was 24570 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 18500 CNY/kg, indicating a volatile trading environment for silver futures [1] - The short-term outlook for silver futures appears to be a fluctuating trend, with potential for a rebound if prices stabilize above 24500 CNY/kg [2] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stagnation in January, with only 22,000 jobs added, falling short of market expectations and reflecting a continuation of the low hiring and low layoffs environment from 2025 [2] - The report indicates that without the unexpected addition of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare sectors, overall employment would have experienced negative growth [2] - This employment data raises concerns for Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the need for further economic support [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating operation" for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to oscillate. The positive news from the coking coal sector has not spread to other black - series products. Steel is operating in a context of weak supply and demand. With the approaching Spring Festival, the spot market is gradually on holiday, and the futures price is likely to oscillate [1][2] Summary by Related Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China held the 2026 credit market work conference, aiming to build a multi - level financial service system and support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [1] - In January 2026, the US ADP added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000, and the previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000, indicating a continuous slowdown in the US labor market at the beginning of 2026 [1] - The Eurozone's CPI in January 2026 increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [1] Industry Data - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), which was basically flat compared with December 2025 and increased by about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period of the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest ADP report indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market at the beginning of 2026, with private sector job growth significantly below expectations [1][4]. Employment Data Summary - In January, the private sector added only 22,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 48,000 and down from 37,000 in December [1][4]. - The goods-producing sector saw a net increase of only 1,000 jobs, with construction adding 9,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs [3]. - The service sector experienced mixed results, with trade/transport/utilities adding 4,000 jobs, financial services increasing by 14,000, education and health services up by 74,000, and leisure and hospitality adding 4,000 jobs [3]. - Conversely, the information sector lost 5,000 jobs, professional/business services decreased by 57,000, and other services fell by 13,000 [3]. - Employment changes by company size showed small businesses (1-49 employees) remained stable, medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) added 41,000 jobs, while large businesses (500+ employees) lost 18,000 jobs [3]. Economic Insights - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson expressed concern over the low growth in hiring, particularly in manufacturing and professional/business services, which have been experiencing job losses since March 2024 [3]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in recent months, the weaker-than-expected job growth in January suggests continued cooling in the labor market [4]. - Wells Fargo's Senior Economist Sarah House noted that the data reflects a stagnant labor market, with no significant improvement or deterioration in hiring trends [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the labor market is slowing down due to increased uncertainty in the overall economic environment [1] Group 2 - The statement is made by the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson [1] - The commentary reflects concerns about the broader economic conditions impacting employment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the UK labor market is experiencing a slowdown, with rising unemployment rates and stagnant employment levels [1][2] - The unemployment rate in the UK for the period of August to October 2025 is reported at 5.1%, which is higher than the same period last year and also higher than the previous three months [1] - The employment rate during the same period stands at 74.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous year but lower than the preceding three months [1] Group 2 - Employee income growth in the UK is also slowing down, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% excluding bonuses and 4.7% including bonuses for the period of August to October [1] - Wage growth in the private sector has decreased from 4.2% to 3.9%, while the public sector has seen an increase from 6.6% to 7.6% [1] - The slowdown in the labor market, combined with easing inflation pressures, has led to market expectations that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark interest rate on the 18th [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated increase of only 40,000 jobs compared to 119,000 in September, and an unemployment rate projected to remain at a four-year high of 4.4% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with various indicators such as JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, and ISM manufacturing/services employment components showing reduced labor demand [3] - The temporary federal government shutdown at the end of September to early October may have delayed hiring for some government contractors, potentially impacting November's data [3] - The latest private employment data for November shows a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in over two and a half years, primarily due to layoffs in small businesses [4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings have risen to the highest level in five months, reaching 7.67 million, while layoffs increased to 1.85 million in October, the highest since early 2023 [4] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to be 3.6% year-over-year, reflecting a slowdown in wage growth due to a softening job market [1][7] - The number of initial jobless claims has seen the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, although this may not indicate a substantial weakening of the job market [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but officials may pause further cuts while seeking clearer signals regarding the labor market and inflation [12] - A weak non-farm payroll report could significantly increase market expectations for further rate cuts in January, while unexpectedly strong data may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious approach [12] - The anticipated weak employment report could trigger a classic macro trading pattern, leading to a weaker dollar, stronger gold and U.S. Treasuries, and a structured rise in U.S. equities [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Oscillating downward [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Under pressure and moving downward [1] Core Views of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventory levels, and corporate profitability [1]. - "Shadow Fed Chair" Hassett believes the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points, and would adhere to his own judgment if appointed Fed Chair. He also stated that if inflation rises from 2.5% to 4%, rate cuts would not be possible [3]. - The US October JOLTS report shows that job openings rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a more than two - year high. Economists think the labor market is slowing, and the Fed currently does not view it as a source of inflationary pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21,775, down 500 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,846, down 41. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends compared to previous periods [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,546, down 39 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest also changed compared to previous periods [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,810, down 325 from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons from the previous day. Aluminum spot import and export profitability showed different trends [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,816, down 5 from the previous day. The alumina prices at Lianyungang and in Australia also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -347, down 5 from the previous day. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,000, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1 - Silver futures continued to decline, with the main contract reported at 13,475.00 yuan/kg, down 1.11%, influenced by profit-taking and interest rate-sensitive sentiment [1] - On Thursday evening, silver prices experienced a significant pullback, with spot silver dropping nearly 3% after reaching a historical high of $58.96, and New York silver futures down 1.93% to $57.49/oz [1] - The market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's policy path, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting, aligning with recent weak employment data [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in over three years, with 191,000 claims reported, below market expectations of 220,000 [2] - The recent sell-off in silver was triggered by a parabolic price increase to record highs, prompting traders to lock in profits, which accelerated as leveraged positions were closed [2] - Silver futures are currently in a corrective phase below trendline resistance, with bullish momentum weakening but still above several moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities [2]