（文章来源：新华财经） 在就业放缓的同时，英国的雇员收入增长速度也在放缓。不包括奖金在内，8—10月份，英国雇员薪资 同比增长4.6%，包括奖金则同比增长4.7%。私营部门的工资增速从此前的4.2%降至3.9%，公共服务部 门的收入增速从此前的6.6%升至7.6%。 英国国家统计局相关负责人表示，这些数据显示英国劳动力市场在进一步放缓。 英国劳动力市场的放缓，加上通胀压力的进一步缓解，市场基本预期英国央行将在18日下调基准利率。 新华财经伦敦12月16日电 在经济增长疲弱的影响下，英国劳动力市场进一步走软，失业率进一步高 企。 英国国家统计局16日公布的数据显示，2025年8—10月份，英国失业率为5.1%，高于一年前的同期水 平，也高于此前三个月的水平。与此同时，8—10月份，英国的就业率为74.9%，与一年前的同期水平 基本持平，但低于此前三个月的水平。 ...

今晚市场准备迎接今年的最后一份美国非农就业报告公布，预计就业人数再次大幅放缓，预计录得4万（9月份为11.9万），失业率预计维持在四年最高的 4.4%，平均每小时工资年率预计为3.6%。近期最新数据显示，就业市场增长势头减弱，许多雇主放缓了招聘步伐，部分雇主甚至裁员。 数据预期为何如此疲软？ 经济放缓迹象：近期多项数据（如JOLTS职位空缺、ADP私人就业、ISM制造业/服务业就业分项）均显示劳动力需求降温。 政府停摆的滞后影响：9月底至10月初的联邦政府停摆虽然短暂，但可能导致部分政府相关合同工招聘暂停或延迟，其影响可能在11月数据中体现。更重要 的是，停摆带来的不确定性可能动摇了企业对经济前景和财政稳定性的信心，从而在招聘上更加谨慎。 近期就业数据表现 美国11月民间就业岗位创逾两年半最大降幅，减少3.2万个，因小企业裁员，但近期政府数据显示裁员仍处低位，表明该数据显示的疲软状态可能并非劳动 力市场真实状况。经济学家也提醒不要过度解读ADP报告显示的就业岗位意外下降，称该月度估算与美国劳工部劳工统计局公布的民间就业数据存在偏差。 10月数据上修至增加4.7万个，由于美国10月非农取消公布，所以该数据也提供 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：震荡下跌 铸造铝合金：承压下行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21775 | -500 | -135 | 475 | 1175 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21835 | ー | l | ー | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2846 | -41 | -18 | -43 | 257 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 255735 | 4131 | 77743 | 54873 | 146369 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 195726 | -37413 | -62714 | -71210 | 22731 | | ...

北京时间周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，白银期货继续走低，截至发稿，沪银主力合约暂报13475.00元/千 克，下跌1.11%，获利了结与利率敏感型情绪将继续压制白银走势，短期展望偏空，目前来看，白银期 货盘内短线偏空。 【最新白银期货情解析】 本周白银抛售潮源于价格抛物线式上涨至纪录高位后，交易员纷纷锁定收益。当杠杆头寸平仓时，此类 行为通常会加速——算法交易与止损订单进一步放大卖盘，加剧价格压力。回调速度表明投机性持仓可 能正在减少，这往往是市场进入盘整阶段的前兆。 日图来看，白银期货目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方， 看涨前景良好，虽有继续调整和回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支 撑，进行低多看涨，白银走势下方关注13000-13200支撑；上方关注14000-14500阻力。 周四晚间，美元指数小幅回升。消息面上，市场关注焦点仍集中于美联储政策路径。美联储官员哈塞特 表示"下次会议可能降息25BP"，与近期疲软的就业数据形成呼应：美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数大幅 下降，但初请失业金人数仍低于预期，同时Revelio Labs预计11月非农就 ...

高盛构建的另类经济指标模型预计，即将公布的10月官方非农就业人数可能出现约5万人的负增长。该 行指出，其新建的裁员追踪模型显示，当前裁员趋势已超过疫情前水平；职位空缺与劳动力市场紧张度 指标持续下行，表明实际状况较截至8月的官方数据更为疲弱。此外，对罗素3000指数成分公司2025年 第三季度财报电话会议的文本分析显示，"裁员"一词被提及频率显著上升。 由于近期联邦政府经历历史上持续时间最长的一次停摆，美国劳工统计局（BLS）未能如期发布10月份 非农就业报告。在此背景下，ADP数据、初请失业金人数估算值、WARN通知及企业裁员公告等私营指 标成为政策制定者、经济学家及投资者评估经济状况的关键依据。 截至10月18日当周，首次申请失业救济金人数为23.2万人，与9月中旬水平大致持平；续请失业金人数 为195.7万，略高于前一周的194.7万。尽管劳工部暂停发布周度常规报告，但通过在线数据库持续提供 未经季节性调整的州级初请数据，经济学家据此结合预先发布的季节调整因子进行全国估算。 民众对就业前景的担忧同步上升。一项于10月23日至25日开展的民意调查显示，55%的美国在职人员表 示担心失业，反映出劳动力市场信 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a slowdown, with the impact of the government shutdown being more severe than previously anticipated [1] Group 1 - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, highlighted the current slowdown in the labor market [1] - The economic effects of the government shutdown are significantly worse than expected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in job opportunities in the U.S. labor market due to the ongoing government shutdown, reaching the lowest level in four and a half years [1][2] - Indeed's job vacancy index dropped to 101.9 as of October 24, marking the lowest level since early February 2021, with a decrease of approximately 0.5% from the beginning of the month and about 3.5% from mid-August [1] - The last JOLTS report indicated that job vacancies in August remained at 7.23 million, roughly unchanged from July, but down about 7% from January of this year [1] Group 2 - The weakening labor market has raised concerns among Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook noted that hiring is slowing down, as evidenced by Indeed's data, and emphasized the importance of monitoring real-time data rather than solely relying on unemployment reports [2] - The October non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release, has been postponed due to the government shutdown, with economists predicting a decrease of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve indicates signs of a slowdown in the labor market [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of deceleration, which may impact economic growth [1]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and customers [3] - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts to address potential risks in the labor market, noting a gradual cooling trend in employment [6][10] - Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with a high probability of further cuts by December [10] Group 1 - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy in his remarks [4] - Williams noted that while the labor market is cooling, it has not raised concerns about an imminent recession [6] - The latest indicators show a moderate cooling in the overall job market without signs of accelerated deterioration [6] Group 2 - Williams mentioned that tariffs have raised import prices, contributing to inflation, but the impact is less than previously expected [6][7] - He estimated that tariffs have increased inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, but overall inflation risks have stabilized [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is based on data analysis rather than political considerations, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence [7]