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巴以可能暂时停火 集运期价短期仍震荡略偏下行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-17 06:11
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the European shipping index futures experiencing a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in the shipping sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 2060.0 points, fluctuating between a high of 2064.0 points and a low of 1990.0 points, with a decline of 1.71% noted [1] - The overall market performance is characterized by weak sentiment and a downward trend in the European shipping index [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures suggests that the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel conflict, on the European shipping index is minimal, with price fluctuations driven more by market sentiment [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures indicates that the 08 contract closely follows spot freight rates, with potential for rebound driven by geopolitical tensions and upcoming price adjustments in July and August [1] - Jianxin Futures highlights strong resilience in European export demand and stable supply capacity, suggesting that price increases may be supported by fundamental factors if June prices stabilize [2]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250508
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 23:51
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The spot price of container shipping in the second half of May is basically the same as that in the first half. The supply pressure may increase due to the re - allocation of vessels from the US route. The June freight rate contract is likely to remain weak, while the August peak - season contract may be boosted by improved sentiment. It is recommended to participate based on short - term oversold rebound and pay attention to the progress of talks [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The online quotes for the second half of May are basically flat compared to the first half. The lowest price for Maersk's large container is $1480, and in the first half, the price was $1647 due to better demand. Other airlines' prices are mostly in the range of $1650 - $2000 [8]. - Supply: Affected by the sharp decline in US - route demand, airlines are re - allocating vessels to other routes, increasing supply pressure, especially in late May [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although there is a short - term relaxation in Sino - US relations, it will still take a long time to reach an agreement. The June freight rate contract is hard to reverse its decline, while the August peak - season contract may be more positively affected. It is advisable to focus on short - term oversold rebounds and monitor the progress of talks [8]. 2. Industry News - Market in late April: From April 28th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined slightly. Transport demand was weak before the holiday, and most route freight rates fell, dragging down the composite index [9]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [9]. - European Route: The eurozone's April composite PMI was 50.1, slightly above the boom - bust line, mainly dragged down by the service industry. The future European economic outlook is uncertain due to tariff issues [9]. - North American Route: In March, the US merchandise trade deficit reached $162 billion, a record high. The consumer confidence index in April continued to decline. The North American route's transport demand remained low, and the spot booking price increased slightly [10]. - Diplomatic News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant from May 9th to 12th at the US request. China firmly opposes US tariff abuse and advocates equal and reciprocal dialogue [10]. - Other News: Talks on a Gaza cease - fire are close to completion. The US plans to charge additional fees for Chinese ships docking at US ports. Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | May 4, 2025 | April 28, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1379.07 | 1429.39 | - 50.32 | - 3.5% | | SCFIS: US - West Route (Base Ports) | 1320.69 | 1230.28 | 90.41 | 7.3% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1312.2 | 1325.0 | 1288.2 | 1331.4 | - 24.0 | - 1.83 | 53581 | 39510 | 3642 | | EC2508 | 1503.6 | 1560.0 | 1559.6 | 1595.5 | 56.0 | 3.72 | 39237 | 36138 | 3696 | | EC2510 | 1272.4 | 1259.9 | 1287.9 | 1311.8 | 15.5 | 1.22 | 11837 | 17426 | 1332 | | EC2512 | 1457.6 | 1439.4 | 1460.7 | 1481.4 | 3.1 | 0.21 | 1893 | 4091 | 101 | | EC2602 | 1297.0 | 1263.8 | 1291.4 | 1317.2 | - 5.6 | - 0.43 | 982 | 2735 | 132 | | EC2604 | 1192.2 | 1166.0 | 1182.6 | 1194.0 | - 9.6 | - 0.81 | 849 | 1144 | 372 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European - route futures, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base - port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][19][20]
关税政策调整节奏不明朗 集运指数走势扑朔迷离
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-30 08:18
Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1332.4 points, closing at 1324.3 points with a rise of 3.42% [1] Group 1: Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan Futures believes that the 2506 contract still has some downward space, indicating a weak short-term driving force and that the 2508 and later contracts reflect expectations of tariff policy changes [1] - Guotai Junan Futures also notes that the October period is traditionally a low season for the European line, suggesting that shipping companies may need to proactively suspend voyages to mitigate the decline in freight rates [1] - Guotai Junan Futures recommends a strategy of holding positions through the holiday while being cautious of the risk of reducing positions before the holiday [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Guotai Junan Futures highlights that the current spot market prices have dropped significantly, with CMA and HPL's prices falling to $2100 and $2645 per FEU respectively, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from shipping companies [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicates that the combination of a weak spot market and lackluster forward expectations will likely lead to a continued weak consolidation pattern in the short term [1] - The market is also observing a gradual slowdown in the downward slope of immediate freight rates due to cost support and seasonal demand expectations [1]
国投期货期权日报-20250429
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 13:27
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot freight rate in the container shipping (European line) market is expected to remain weak, but the downward slope may slow down due to cost support and traditional peak - season cargo volume [1]. - The export volume of Chinese goods to Europe on the demand side remains stable, and the traditional restocking demand is expected to drive the shipment volume to improve month - on - month from the second half of May [1]. - The planned shipping capacity in late May will rise to 280,000 - 300,000 TEU/week, which is not enough to trigger a full - container situation [1]. - The 06 contract is under the dual pressure of "weak reality" and "weak expectation" and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term; the 08 contract involves the game of the expectation of improved tariff policies, but the uncertainty of policy change rhythm is high [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Market Quotes - Maersk opened the cabin for W20 yesterday with a quote of $1450/FEU, the lowest in the current market, indicating poor confidence in the loading rate in early May [1]. - The SCFI European route freight rate was $1316/TEU on April 18, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.9%. From April 23 - 28, the TCI was $1440.6/TEU on April 23 - 27 and dropped to $1406.9/TEU on April 28, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.3%. The freight rate from Tianjin to European base ports was $2225.0/FEU on April 28, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.5% [2]. b. Shipping Company Quotes - Different shipping companies have different quotes and price changes for different time periods (April 28 - May 18). For example, Maersk's quotes for 20GP and 40GP vary in different weeks, and some shipping companies' quotes have decreased compared to the previous day [2].
建信期货集运指数日报-2025-04-03
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 00:07
Report Information - Report Title: "Daily Report on Container Shipping Index" [1] - Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase in April has basically failed, but the price has stabilized in the first ten days, with the middle price of large containers around $2,100 - $2,300. The higher quotes in the last ten days may indicate good loading demand and support the improvement of sentiment. The risk of a significant price drop is low. With the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East, the approaching peak - season price increase, and increased European fiscal stimulus, the market's expectation of peak - season price increases may further rise, and the upward momentum for the stabilization of contracts 06 and 08 may be gradually accumulating [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market on the Day**: The price increase in April has basically failed, but the price has stabilized in the first ten days. The middle price of large containers is around $2,100 - $2,300. Higher quotes in the last ten days may indicate good loading demand and support sentiment improvement. The risk of a significant price drop is low. With the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East, the approaching peak - season price increase, and increased European fiscal stimulus, the market's expectation of peak - season price increases may further rise, and the upward momentum for the stabilization of contracts 06 and 08 may be gradually accumulating [8] 2. Industry News - From March 24th to March 28th, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed signs of stabilization after continuous adjustments. Transport demand remained stable, and most route market freight rates rebounded, with the comprehensive index rising. On March 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1356.88 points, a 5.0% increase from the previous period. - In the European route, the eurozone's March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4, a new high in 8 months, indicating continued economic recovery. The manufacturing downturn has eased, but the service PMI continued to slow. Transport demand was generally stable, and the market freight rate showed signs of stabilization after continuous decline. On March 28th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1318/TEU, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. - In the Mediterranean route, the market situation was basically the same as that of the European route, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weaker. The spot booking price in the current week continued to fall. On March 28th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2076/TEU, a 5.4% decrease from the previous period. - The Houthi armed delegation met with Egyptian intelligence officials in Cairo. The US urged the Houthi to ease the military situation in the Red Sea through Egypt. The US has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East and launched multiple air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Houthi armed has launched ballistic missiles and drones in response and threatened to attack US aircraft carriers and warships [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From March 24th to March 31st, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) decreased from 1506.17 to 1473.56, a 2.2% decrease; the SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) decreased from 1152.74 to 1089.16, a 5.5% decrease [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on April 2nd, including EC2504, EC2506, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts such as the trend of the main contract of container shipping European route futures, the trend of the second - main contract, global container shipping capacity, and global container ship orders [18][19][20]