Core Viewpoint - Rongchang Biopharma has entered a global licensing agreement with Vor Bio for its innovative drug Taitasip, with a total deal value exceeding $4.23 billion, but the market reacted negatively to the announcement, leading to significant stock price declines for both A-shares and H-shares [1][3][17] Financial Summary - Rongchang Biopharma will receive $125 million in cash and warrants from Vor Bio, including a $45 million upfront payment and $80 million in warrants, which can be converted into 320 million shares of Vor Bio, representing approximately 23% of its expanded total share capital [1] - The deal includes potential milestone payments of up to $4.105 billion and high single to double-digit sales royalties [1][8] - Despite the promising revenue growth, with projected revenue of 1.717 billion yuan in 2024 (up 58.54% year-on-year), the company still faces a net loss of 1.468 billion yuan [14][15] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Rongchang Biopharma's A-shares hit the daily limit down, falling over 17% to 61.25 yuan, while H-shares dropped over 16% to 55.85 HKD [3][4] - The market's negative response indicates dissatisfaction with the deal's structure, particularly the low upfront payment and the uncertainty surrounding milestone payments [7][8] Strategic Implications - The agreement is seen as a significant step in Rongchang Biopharma's global expansion strategy, potentially allowing access to mainstream markets in Europe and the U.S. [17] - However, concerns about Vor Bio's financial stability and operational capacity raise doubts about the realization of future milestone payments and sales royalties [10][12][17]

Core Viewpoint - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by improved fundamentals, supportive policies, and increased market interest, particularly in the A-share and Hong Kong markets [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance this year, with a notable rebound starting from April 9, despite recent pullbacks [1]. - The innovative drug segment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has continued to strengthen, indicating a recovery after four years of adjustment [1][3]. - The total amount of business development (BD) transactions for innovative drugs is projected to rise significantly, from $8.4 billion in 2020 to $51.9 billion in 2024 [4]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Trends - The policy environment has shifted from cost control to encouraging innovation, providing strong support for the development of innovative drugs [3]. - The number and quality of innovative drug products in China have significantly improved, leading to increased interest from foreign pharmaceutical companies [3][5]. - The penetration rate of innovative drugs in China is expected to rise, with current levels at around 20%, compared to 70%-80% in the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about the future of innovative drugs, emphasizing the importance of technology and growth attributes in the sector [6]. - Investment strategies include focusing on high-quality companies, innovative drug leaders, and traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovative drugs [7][8][9]. - Investors can consider actively managed pharmaceutical funds or industry-themed ETFs to gain exposure to the innovative drug market [10][12]. Group 4: Fund Performance - Several funds managed by 工银瑞信 have demonstrated strong performance, ranking highly in their respective categories over various time frames [13][15]. - The 工银港股通创新药ETF has seen significant inflows, reflecting market preference for innovative drug companies [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][82]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the significant progress of Chinese innovative drugs, highlighting their emergence as a global force in the pharmaceutical industry, supported by a solid industrial foundation, policy backing, and capital support [4][5]. - The gap between Chinese and global innovative drugs has narrowed significantly, with the time to market for first-in-class drugs reduced from over 10 years to within 1-5 years [4]. - The report indicates that Chinese companies now account for over 30% of global clinical trials, with more than 60% of popular targets being pursued by Chinese firms [35][38]. Summary by Sections Breakthrough Therapies - The development of innovative drugs in China is underpinned by a robust industrial base, supportive policies, and substantial capital investment, leading to rapid growth in the ADC market and next-generation therapies [4][12]. - Key drugs such as Keytruda and Semaglutide are projected to generate sales of $29.482 billion and $29.296 billion respectively in 2024, showcasing the potential of innovative therapies [4][12]. Achievements - Chinese innovative drugs have made significant strides, with the clinical trial participation rate increasing from 9.7% in 2016 to 28.2% in 2023 [35]. - The report notes that the number of Chinese companies involved in clinical trials for oncology drugs has risen from 15% in 2016 to 35.5% in 2023, indicating a strong focus on cancer therapies [35]. Leading Trends - The rapid growth of License Out transactions has provided substantial cash flow for innovative drug companies, facilitating their expansion into international markets [5][66]. - The report highlights that the Chinese market is still dominated by foreign patented drugs, but there is significant potential for domestic innovative drugs to capture market share, especially as many foreign drugs face expiration of patents [70][72].

金十数据6月23日讯，招银国际发表研究报告指，MSCI中国医疗指数2025年初至今累计上涨31.7%，跑 赢MSCI中国指数18.2%。报告指，短期来看，由于市场对于出海交易的频次和交易规模预期较高，内 地医药行业或仍将面临一定的回调压力。创新药属于高风险、长周期、高回报的行业。中国创新药的研 发实力具备全球竞争力，该行认为创新药出海趋势将长期持续。然而，由于创新药的长周期特征，导致 出海交易的达成往往需要较长时间的研发积累。长期看，中国创新药的出海BD交易仍有大幅增长空 间。该行认为，消费类医疗领域的部分企业基本面扎实，估值合理，值得布局。尽管短期创新药板块或 将由于盈利了结等因素继续回调，内地医药行业基本面仍然保持强劲，估值处于合理区间。 招银国际：内地医药行业短期面临回调压力 估值处于合理区间 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant valuation recovery, with a median average valuation of approximately 15-16 times PE, compared to 25 times in A-shares and 20 times overseas [5][6][8] - The liquidity in the market has improved significantly, with a notable increase in financing opportunities, exemplified by Heng Rui's successful A+H listing raising around 10 billion HKD [5][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The innovative drug and FIMA sectors are performing exceptionally well, benefiting from active BD transactions and popular fields such as bispecific antibodies (双抗) and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) [1][2][6] - The revenue growth rate for the innovative drug sector exceeds 40% year-on-year, with narrowing profit losses and a positive trend in profitability for leading companies [1][8] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are actively engaging in BD transactions, with transaction amounts exceeding 46 billion USD as of early this year, primarily driven by milestone payments [9] - Eight domestic innovative drugs have received FDA approval, with BeiGene's Zebrutinib achieving global sales exceeding 2 billion USD [10][11] Policy Support - In January 2025, the National Healthcare Security Administration announced the first version of the Class B catalog, focusing on high-innovation products that benefit patients but are not included in the national basic medical insurance catalog [3][12] - Policies from Beijing and Shenzhen are promoting the development of the entire innovative drug industry chain, enhancing R&D investments and supporting innovative transformations [3][4] Sub-industry Performance - The performance of various sub-industries is mixed, with the innovative drug and FIMA sectors showing the most promise, while other sectors like chemical preparations and medical services are experiencing slower growth [6][8] - Small-cap companies that were previously illiquid have shown strong performance this year, driven by valuation recovery and BD catalysts [6][8] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector in 2025 will focus on innovative drugs and overseas opportunities, particularly following the promising data presented at the ASCO conference [2] - Companies are expected to reach profitability turning points, with ongoing clinical advancements in key pipelines [2] Noteworthy Developments - Significant collaborations have been established, such as the partnership between Sanofi and Pfizer regarding the P707 bispecific product, with an upfront payment of 1.25 billion USD [9][25] - The ADC sector is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Keren Biotechnology leading in this field [24] Challenges and Risks - The medical services sector is under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and healthcare policy impacts, with performance challenges expected to continue [16][18] - The aging population is increasing hospitalization rates, which, combined with DRG/DIP policies, poses additional challenges for the healthcare system [17] Conclusion - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, driven by innovative drug development and favorable policies, although challenges in the medical services sector and the need for continued BD activity remain critical for future success [1][3][16]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Hang Seng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index (CNY) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects up to 50 listed companies in the Hong Kong market whose main business involves innovative drug research and development, reflecting the overall performance of innovative drug-themed listed companies in Hong Kong[37][61] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: Combines the sample space of the CSI Hong Kong 300 Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index[38] - **Selection Criteria**: - Liquidity: Average daily turnover over the past year must not be less than HKD 10 million - Business Focus: Companies involved in innovative drug R&D or providing related services are selected - Market Cap: Top 50 securities by average daily market cap over the past year are included, or all securities if fewer than 50 meet the criteria - **Weighting Method**: Free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual stock weights capped at 10%[38] - **Adjustment Frequency**: Semi-annual adjustments in June and December[38] - **Model Evaluation**: The index focuses on mid-to-large innovative drug enterprises, with a high degree of industry purity, as 100% of its constituents belong to the "Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology" secondary industry[43][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hang Seng Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index - **Annualized Return**: 8.54% (2019.1.1 - 2025.5.31)[49][50] - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio (IR)**: 0.41[49][50] - **Annualized Volatility**: 35.93%[49][50] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -68.18%[49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three assets that have seen significant growth in the first half of 2025: gold, innovative pharmaceuticals, and Pop Mart, highlighting their performance and potential for future investment [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Gold has increased by approximately 30% over the past six months [1]. - The innovative pharmaceutical index in the A-share market has risen by 20%, while the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical index has surged by 50% [1]. - Pop Mart has experienced an extraordinary increase of 220% in the Hong Kong market over the same period [1]. Group 2: Wealth Consensus - The ability of an asset to sustain growth is largely dependent on whether it is recognized as a wealth consensus by society [3]. - Real estate has historically been the strongest wealth consensus over the past 20 years, leading to significant appreciation and investment returns [5]. - Innovative pharmaceuticals are seen as a potential growth sector but lack the broad societal consensus that real estate once had [7]. - Pop Mart does not meet the criteria for wealth consensus, as its appeal is limited to a niche market and lacks widespread understanding and acceptance [8][9]. Group 3: Value Assessment - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between value overshooting and value recovery when assessing asset price movements [14]. - Gold and innovative pharmaceuticals are viewed as undergoing a value recovery process, with gold's price being suppressed historically by the strength of the dollar [16][17]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing upward momentum due to previously low valuations and strong performance exceeding expectations [18][19]. - In contrast, Pop Mart is characterized as experiencing value overshooting, with unsustainable price increases leading to anticipated corrections [20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that gold is the most stable asset among the three, with innovative pharmaceuticals following, while Pop Mart is expected to face significant corrections [23][24]. - It is recommended that investors allocate the majority of their funds to stable income-generating assets rather than seeking short-term high returns [25]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold and high-interest deposit-type assets for more secure investment strategies [26].

近期创新药行情如火如荼，这里到底是为何呢？ 截至 5 月，全球大型跨国药企引进的创新药项目中，42% 来自中国企业，交易总金额超 370 亿美元（接近 2023 年全年水平）。 技术追赶。ASCO大会中国医药公司表现非常的亮眼， 中国药企贡献 73 项口头报告，首次有 11 项入选 "最新突破摘要"（LBA），涵盖肿瘤免疫、ADC 等前沿领域，与跨国药企同台竞 技。 这个抢了大部分海外头部医药公司的风头创新药企业 出海战略的成功不仅带来现金流（如首付 款和里程碑收入），更通过国际多中心临床试验（如 ASCO 会议上 73 项口头报告）提升品 牌影响力，为后续产品出海奠定基础。 其实可以拆分成主要的三个原因： 政策支持。 2024年出台的《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》为创新药产业构建了覆盖从研 发到商业化的系统性支持体系，尤其突出价格机制、医保支付与商业保险三大核心环节的协同 作用 。 这个简单说就是要保证创新药企业卖药有钱可赚；将创新药进入医保名单的速度加快， 快速通 道进入医保谈判，显著缩短上市后放量周期 。 除此之外， 优先审评审批政策持续推进，如 5 月 29 日单日获批 11 款创新药（含 7 款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the innovative drug market is driven by three main factors: policy support, improved liquidity, and positive performance indicators [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Support - The implementation of the "Full Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development" plan in 2024 establishes a systematic support framework for the innovative drug industry, emphasizing the collaboration of pricing mechanisms, medical insurance payments, and commercial insurance [1] - The acceleration of the inclusion of innovative drugs into the medical insurance list and the establishment of a fast track for negotiations significantly shorten the post-launch volume cycle [1] - Continuous promotion of priority review and approval policies has led to record approvals, with 11 innovative drugs approved in a single day on May 29, marking a five-year high for the same period [1] Group 2: Improved Liquidity - After enduring difficult times, innovative drug companies are now entering a harvest season, aided by the anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. in 2024, which will facilitate financing and reduce costs [2] - Many companies that faced cash flow issues between 2019 and 2021 are now achieving milestone results in drug development [2] - By 2025, China's innovative drugs are expected to enter a "golden period" for overseas expansion, with transaction amounts and numbers reaching historical highs [2] Group 3: Performance Indicators - Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased impressive performances at the ASCO conference, contributing 73 oral presentations, with 11 selected for "Latest Breakthrough Abstracts," covering cutting-edge fields like tumor immunology and ADC [2] - The successful overseas strategies of innovative drug companies not only generate cash flow through upfront payments and milestone revenues but also enhance brand influence through international multi-center clinical trials [2] - The innovative drug ETF has been a market leader from the beginning of the year, reflecting the positive impact of policy, liquidity, and performance improvements [3]

当前如何看创新药 - 对话汇丰晋信李博康 20250618 摘要 汇丰晋信医疗先锋基金致力于捕捉中国内地和香港医疗先锋主题股票市 场的投资机会，均衡配置 A 股和港股，大约各占 50%。 创新药领域虽短期波动，但整体趋势向好，多家公司开始盈利，商业模 式确定性增强，吸引非医药投资者关注。 美国肿瘤大会期间，多家头部创新药公司在 BD 方面取得超预期成果， 获得海外大公司青睐，展现持续超预期能力。 未来一年以上维度内，医药行业尤其是创新药领域将继续修复并上涨， 国内估值底部稳固，商业确定性增强。 传统药企的重估远未结束，业绩稳健增长，利润增速可达 15-20%以上 且可持续，创新实力及国际化经验尚未被市场充分认可。 当前医药基金主要配置思路包括创新型医药资产、转型中的老牌传统制 药企业和自下而上的阿尔法型个股，均衡配置可有效控制风险并实现收 益最大化。 国产创新药具备"又快又好又便宜"的优势，与海外大型药企的需求形 成完美匹配，BD 合作预计不会很快降速。 Q&A 汇丰晋信医疗先锋基金今年以来的表现如何？ 截至 2025 年 6 月 17 日，汇丰晋信医疗先锋基金今年以来的收益率约为 50%，跑赢业绩基准 40 ...