波兰央行官员Wnorowski：2025年可能只会进行一次利率调整。九月份可能再次将利率下调25个基点。 ...

当地时间7月9日，美股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数上涨0.94%，创历史新高；道琼斯 工业指数上涨0.49%，标普500指数上涨0.61%。 当地时间7月9日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会6月17日至18日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储 同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。 美联储会议纪要公布 内部分歧明显 据央视新闻报道，美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25% 至4.5%之间。与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明经济活动继续稳步扩 张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然略高。与会者一致认为，经济前景的不 确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 为支持其目标，委员会同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。与会者一致认为，在考虑 进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时机时，委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及 风险平衡。与会者一致认为，会后声明应重申其坚定承诺，既要支持充分就业，又要使通胀率回归委员 会2%的目标。 在评估适当的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监测未来信息对经济前景的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that some participants believe the most appropriate path is to refrain from interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Some Federal Reserve members expressed that the likely appropriate course of action is to not lower interest rates in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank Negara Malaysia has cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points from 3% to 2.75%, marking the first rate adjustment in two years and the first rate cut in five years [1] - The central bank's statement indicates that global economic growth continues, supported by consumer spending and some degree of consumer credit, despite uncertainties from global tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6] - The article highlights that while domestic demand and export growth are expected to support economic activity in Malaysia, the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside due to global trade slowdown and weak market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Malaysia's inflation rates for the first five months of the year averaged 1.4% for overall inflation and 1.9% for core inflation, with expectations for moderate inflation through 2025 due to controlled global cost conditions and limited domestic demand pressures [4] - The performance of the Malaysian Ringgit will continue to be driven by external factors, with the country's strong economic outlook and structural reforms providing lasting support for the currency [5] - The central bank emphasizes that the rate cut is a preemptive measure aimed at maintaining stable growth in Malaysia amidst external uncertainties, despite a solid domestic economic foundation [6]

马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率下调25基点至2.75%，符合预期。 ...

马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率下调25个基点至2.75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations and indicating potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease as anticipated [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Decision - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.25% [1] - This decision is consistent with a Reuters survey where 19 out of 27 analysts expected the central bank to hold rates steady [1] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Since August of the previous year, the Reserve Bank has reduced interest rates by 225 basis points [1] - Current inflation stands at 2.5%, with concerns regarding trade tensions potentially exacerbating price pressures [1] - The central bank is adopting a cautious approach in light of these economic factors [1]

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on July 4, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 772.22 CNY per gram, down 0.43%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 8883 CNY per kilogram, down 0.38% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3321.50 USD per ounce, down 0.44%, and COMEX silver at 36.80 USD per ounce, down 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for July 4 were 775.38 CNY for Shanghai gold and 8919.00 CNY for Shanghai silver, with respective highs of 777.20 CNY and 8953.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations focus on 18 countries contributing to 95% of the U.S. trade deficit, with strategies aimed at applying maximum pressure [3] - Current CME "FedWatch" data shows a 95.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - Last week, COMEX gold prices increased by 1.84% to 3346.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold rose by 1.10% to 777.06 CNY per gram [4]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3342.16, with a slight increase of 0.47% from the previous session, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The recent daily candlestick pattern shows a bearish engulfing formation, suggesting a potential short-term correction after a three-day bullish trend, with market focus on the closing price today [2] - The 4-hour analysis indicates gold is consolidating between $3365 and $3311, with Bollinger Bands tightening, and the absence of U.S. market activity today may lead to a range-bound movement [3] Group 2 - The market is signaling a potential interest rate cut, as indicated by the two-year U.S. Treasury yield being perceived as too high, with commentary suggesting that the current economic conditions may warrant a reassessment of rates [2] - The focus on the mid-band level of $3350 is crucial for determining future bullish momentum, with a closing above this level suggesting further upward movement [2] - Support levels are identified at $3322-$3311, while resistance is noted at $3350-$3360, guiding short-term trading strategies [3]