Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is shifting focus towards dividend insurance products, with companies planning to adjust their product pricing and marketing strategies in the upcoming third quarter to enhance sales and sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Multiple insurance companies are set to accelerate the replacement of traditional insurance with dividend insurance, aiming for a target where dividend insurance constitutes at least 30% of their business by 2025 [1]. - The recent regulatory guidance emphasizes sustainable operations and comprehensive services rather than merely competing on yield, marking a significant shift in the industry’s approach to product offerings [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Financial regulators have issued guidelines to enhance the sustainable operation of dividend insurance, focusing on dynamic constraints to prevent companies from overextending future payouts [3][4]. - Insurers are required to balance the predetermined rates of dividend insurance with actual investment returns and ensure that the proposed dividend levels are justifiable and sustainable [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The adjustment of guaranteed rates for traditional insurance products from 2.5% to 2% and for dividend insurance from 2% to 1.5% is expected to shift consumer preference towards more flexible dividend products [2]. - The ability of insurers to provide dividends is influenced by their investment performance and the historical burden of high-rate policies, which can affect current dividend levels [5][6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Insurers with strong ratings and robust investment performance are likely to gain a competitive edge in the dividend insurance market, while smaller firms may face increased challenges in a landscape where yield competition is curtailed [6]. - The dynamic regulatory framework allows for some flexibility in dividend distribution, enabling companies to align their offerings with actual capabilities and market conditions [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in subscription certificates for China Ping An and AIA Insurance is driven by regulatory changes and a shift in consumer wealth towards dividend insurance products, indicating a potential positive outlook for leading companies in the insurance sector [2][8][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - China Ping An's subscription certificates saw significant increases, with Ping An Zhongyin 57 Purchase C rising by 138%, and several others doubling in value [2][4]. - AIA Insurance's subscription certificates also experienced substantial gains, with AIA Fa Ba 57 Purchase rising over 270% [2][4]. - The stock of China Ping An in the Hong Kong market has shown a continuous upward trend, increasing by over 3% on the same day [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice regarding the dividend levels for 2024, urging insurance companies to enhance their asset-liability management and improve the sustainability of dividend insurance [8][10]. - This regulatory guidance is expected to benefit leading insurance companies, as it aims to standardize the floating cost levels of dividend insurance and encourage prudent determination of dividend levels [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The low interest rate environment is prompting a shift in consumer wealth from savings deposits to dividend insurance, creating a supportive capital market chain [12]. - The transition towards dividend insurance is seen as a significant change in the business model of insurance companies, with a potential shift in valuation metrics from Price-to-Book (PB) to Price-to-Earnings Value (PEV) [12]. - The insurance industry is expected to experience a new cycle of development, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness of products through improved asset management capabilities [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 0.24% this week, outperforming the market by 0.69 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.81%) and Xinhua (+3.27%), while some companies like GuoShou (-0.74%) and TaiPing (-1.48%) saw declines [1]. - The report highlights that insurance companies are preparing for a shift in interest rates, particularly focusing on the development of dividend insurance products in response to regulatory changes [2][3]. - The issuance of the "Opinion Letter" regarding dividend insurance is seen as a move to standardize the floating cost levels and enhance the asset-liability matching of insurance companies, which may help mitigate long-term risks associated with interest rate differentials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's performance is characterized by a mixed outcome among individual stocks, with the overall index showing a slight increase [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield remains stable at 1.64%, indicating a low volatility environment for interest rates [1]. Recent Developments - Several insurance companies are actively developing new products to adapt to the changing interest rate environment, focusing on training sales personnel and enhancing channel cooperation [2]. - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure that proposed dividend levels are justified and sustainable, particularly for companies rated 1-3 and those with higher proposed dividend levels [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent low volatility in long-term interest rates may reduce asset reallocation pressures, leading to improved operational quality in the insurance sector [5]. - The expected recovery in performance metrics, alongside a potential improvement in equity investments, indicates a positive outlook for the insurance companies' growth rates [5]. - The report lists the recommended companies in order: China Taiping, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Xinhua Insurance, and China Life, with respective PEV and PB valuations provided [5][10].

本报记者冷翠华 见习记者杨笑寒 今年以来，分红险加速"上新"。《证券日报》记者据中国保险行业协会披露的数据梳理，今年以来截至6月13日，保险公 司共新推出403款人寿保险产品，其中分红险产品有151款，占比为37%，较2024年全年提升9个百分点。 中国平安执行董事、联席首席执行官郭晓涛在2024年度业绩发布会上表示，在预定利率持续下降的基础上，分红险在公司 产品结构的占比会持续增加。 成产品转型重点方向 分红险已成为人身险行业今年产品转型的重点方向。 国金证券非银首席分析师舒思勤近日表示，长端利率持续走低背景下，寿险产品结构向分红险转型。自2024年9月份开 始，我国传统险预定利率已重回2.5%时代，产品形态的转型也不可避免，预计下一阶段各个公司将大力推动分红型增额终身寿 险、年金险销售，负债端刚性成本有望继续降低。 交银国际发布的研报显示，预定利率的下调态势推动保险公司加大向分红型产品的转型。分红险是2025年保险公司的销售 重点，对于消费者来说，分红型产品在较低的保证利率水平上能够提供一定的向上弹性，对于寿险公司来说，分红型产品能够 降低刚性负债成本，缓解利差损风险。 受访人士表示，对消费者而言，在市场 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that with the establishment of a low interest rate environment, household wealth is shifting from savings deposits to dividend insurance through the insurance and banking channels, creating a chain that supports the capital market [1] - The transformation of dividend insurance marks a significant change in the business model of insurance companies, leading to a substantial decrease in sensitivity of profits to investment returns [1] - The valuation system for listed insurance companies is expected to shift from a Price-to-Book (PB) model to a Price-to-Earnings Value (PEV) model, suggesting a considerable allocation value for these companies [1]

2024年业绩"翻两倍"的新华保险，成功将增长趋势延续到了2025年。 经历"股债双牛"下的集体大涨后，2025年一季度新华保险营收、净利分别增长26.15%、19.02%，成为中国人保外唯一的"双增"公司。 拆分来看，新华保险投资端、负债端均有较好表现： 一是投资组合顶住市场波动压力，总投资收益率实现1.1个百分点的增长； 二是负债端改革成果兑现，保费收入在人身险一季度"开门黑"中逆势增长近三成。 从各项核心数据看，如今的新华保险已逐渐走出2020年后利润增速承压的阴霾； 但进一步看，机遇中亦暗藏承保利润较低等挑战，其一季度延续的传统险主导产品结构，更可能在未来带来资产负债匹配压力。 总裁龚兴峰将公司在产品选择上的矛盾，总结为"破"与"立"的抉择。 并称需要"先立后破"，通过传统险业务提升市场占有率后，公司二季度产品中心将逐步转向分红险。 投资端"顶压" 股市方面，一季度H股恒生指数、恒生科技指数涨幅分别高达15.3%、20.7%； 但债市出现明显回调，1年期国债、10年期国债、10年期国开债分别上行45个、14个、11个基点。 股债跷跷板分化，使险企坐享权益资产增长同时，亦须直面债市的高位波动。 例如当期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is at the beginning of a long-term slow bull market, supported by market reshuffling, a shift in product demand from traditional insurance to dividend insurance, and regulatory changes that favor survivor companies [2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The first quarter of 2025 saw overall performance exceed expectations, with significant growth in new business value across major companies, indicating benefits from market reshuffling [1][3][8]. - New business value growth rates for major companies in Q1 2025 include: China Ping An at 34.9%, China Pacific Insurance at 39%, China Life at 4.8%, Xinhua Insurance at 68%, and China Property & Casualty at 31.5% [3][8]. Group 2: Product Strategy Shift - There is a notable shift towards dividend insurance products, with companies like China Taiping and China Life reporting over 90% and 50% of new premiums from dividend insurance, respectively [5][8]. - The market is increasingly accepting dividend insurance as a key fixed-income product in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a long-term growth potential [4][5]. Group 3: Capital Adequacy Improvement - Core solvency ratios have improved across major companies, with China Ping An at 164%, China Pacific at 140%, China Life at 146%, and Xinhua at 184%, reflecting enhanced risk-bearing capacity [6][8]. - The improvement in solvency ratios is attributed to bond reclassification and a longer asset duration, which has accumulated significant unrealized gains [1][6][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main investment lines: prioritize ZhongAn Online for high profit growth potential, consider property and casualty insurance stocks for defensive high dividend yields, and pay attention to life insurance companies like New China Life and China Taiping for their strong new business quality and potential double-digit profit growth in 2025 [4]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, five A-share listed insurance companies achieved a total net profit of 84.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The profit growth rates varied significantly among companies, with notable increases for Taiping Life (+87.5%) and PICC (+43.4%), while Ping An experienced a decline of 26.4% [1][11]. - The investment performance showed a mixed picture, with total investment income growth rates ranging from +64% for PICC to -27% for Ping An, influenced by rising interest rates leading to FVPL bond losses [2][26]. - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance continued to show good growth, with Taiping, Ping An, and PICC experiencing increases of 39.0%, 34.9%, and 31.5% respectively, while New China Life's growth was more modest at 4.8% [3][30]. - In the property and casualty insurance sector, premium growth was mixed, with PICC and Ping An showing increases of 3.7% and 7.7% respectively, while Taiping's growth was only 1.0% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total net profit for five A-share listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 was 84.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase. The individual profit figures and growth rates were as follows: PICC (12.85 billion yuan, +43.4%), China Life (28.80 billion yuan, +39.5%), New China Life (5.88 billion yuan, +19.0%), Taiping (9.63 billion yuan, -18.1%), and Ping An (27.02 billion yuan, -26.4%) [1][11]. Performance Attribution - The insurance service performance generally showed positive growth, while investment performance was mixed. In Q1 2025, the insurance service performance growth rates were: Ping An (+2.9%), Taiping (-10.6%), PICC (+26.1%), China Life (+123.9%), and New China Life (+5.2%) [21]. Asset Side - Investment assets showed steady growth, with the total investment asset scale for four A-share listed insurance companies increasing by 3.2% compared to the beginning of the year. New China Life had the fastest growth at 3.6% [25]. Life Insurance - The overall NBV continued to show good growth, with Taiping, Ping An, and PICC experiencing increases of 39.0%, 34.9%, and 31.5% respectively. New China Life's growth was more modest at 4.8% [30][31]. Property and Casualty Insurance - Premium growth was mixed, with PICC and Ping An showing increases of 3.7% and 7.7% respectively, while Taiping's growth was only 1.0%. The combined ratio (COR) for PICC, Ping An, and Taiping improved due to reduced disaster losses and enhanced cost control [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Life Insurance (601628.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders reached 28.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, exceeding expectations. The growth was primarily driven by significant improvements in insurance service performance and a reduction in income tax expenses [4] - The company maintains a core solvency ratio of 146% as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 7.22 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and has maintained an A rating in the comprehensive risk assessment for 27 consecutive quarters [4] - The report forecasts net profits of 117.1 billion, 129 billion, and 147.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 10.2%, and 14.6%. The current stock price corresponds to P/EV valuations of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.58 for 2025-2027 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total premiums reached 354.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while new premiums were 107.4 billion yuan, down 4.5%. Short-term insurance premiums increased by 19.2% [5] - The company has significantly increased the proportion of floating income products in first-year premiums to 51.7%, indicating successful transformation efforts [5] Investment Returns - The total investment income for Q1 2025 was 53.8 billion yuan, with an investment return rate of 2.75%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declines in the bond market [6] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's investment assets reached 6.82 trillion yuan, a growth of 3.1% compared to the end of 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a financial summary with key metrics for 2023A to 2027E, including: - Premium service income projected to grow from 212.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 277.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 10% [7] - Embedded value expected to increase from 1.26 trillion yuan in 2023 to 1.76 trillion yuan in 2027 [7] - New business value anticipated to rise from 36.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 44.5 billion yuan in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 45.5 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline of 18.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 9.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025. However, the new business value (NBV) for life insurance increased by 39% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in this segment. The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 97.4% [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new insurance premiums, particularly from the bancassurance channel, which saw a 131% year-on-year growth in new business. This growth was partially offset by a decline in the agent channel [8]. - The investment income remained stable, with a net investment yield of 0.8% and a total investment yield of 1%, although the latter saw a decline of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year due to bond market fluctuations [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 404,089 million CNY in 2024 to 438,513 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 44,960 million CNY in 2024 to 49,025 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 4.7 CNY in 2024 to 5.1 CNY in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 6.6 to 6.0 over the same period [4].