Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has placed 23 Chinese entities, including 13 integrated circuit companies, on an export control "entity list," impacting the global semiconductor industry and international trade [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. actions, accusing it of abusing export controls and harming normal business exchanges between countries [2][3] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated anti-dumping investigations against U.S. imported analog chips, with the investigation period set from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024 [4][6] Group 2 - The anti-dumping investigation was triggered by a formal complaint from the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, citing a 37% increase in imports and a 52% decrease in prices of the investigated products from the U.S. [8] - The investigation targets general interface chips and gate driver chips produced using 40nm and above process technology, covering various product forms to prevent evasion [8][10] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the investigation, as it may lead to a reassessment of supply chains and increased domestic chip usage [11][12] Group 3 - Major U.S. companies affected by the investigations include Texas Instruments and Analog Devices, which have significant revenue from the Chinese market [14][18] - Texas Instruments generated approximately $3 billion in revenue from China in 2024, accounting for about 19% of its total revenue, while Analog Devices earned around $2.1 billion, representing 23% of its revenue [14] - The Chinese analog chip market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2025 to 2029, driven by demand from automotive and industrial sectors [18] Group 4 - The Ministry of Commerce has also launched an anti-discrimination investigation against U.S. measures in the integrated circuit sector, citing discriminatory practices that harm China's technological development [19][20] - This investigation aims to review a range of U.S. policies affecting China's semiconductor industry since 2018, including tariffs and export controls [22] - The anti-discrimination investigation is part of China's broader strategy to counteract U.S. trade measures and protect its domestic industries [21][22]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/9/16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1169.700 -1.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 1673.8 | +33.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -504.10 -11.00↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 -402.40 | -48.60↓ | | EC合约基差 | 270.54 -6.60↓ | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 47517 -255↓ | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1440.24 -126.22↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,349.84 | 369.36↑ | | SCFI（综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigations against U.S. imported analog chips and highlighted discriminatory barriers against Chinese integrated circuits [1][3] - The timing of these announcements coincided with a planned meeting between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary, indicating a strategic response rather than a spontaneous action [3][5] - The import volume of U.S. analog chips to China surged by 37% from 2022 to 2024, while prices plummeted by 52%, with dumping margins from U.S. companies like Texas Instruments reaching 300%-450% [3][5] Group 2 - China's response is characterized as a counter-strategy to U.S. tactics of using low prices to undermine Chinese industries, signaling that negotiations can occur but must be free of unilateral sanctions [5][9] - The U.S. has added 13 Chinese companies to its "entity list," a tactic seen as a pressure tool to gain leverage in negotiations [7][9] - China publicly questioned the U.S. actions before the talks, indicating that such maneuvers could jeopardize the negotiations [9][11] Group 3 - China's approach is grounded in legal frameworks and international trade rules, asserting that U.S. practices violate World Trade Organization regulations [14][18] - The anti-dumping investigation is based on evidence that U.S. companies are selling chips at unreasonably low prices to eliminate local competition [16][18] - The U.S. has been accused of undermining free trade principles, while China positions itself as a defender of these rules [20][22] Group 4 - China's confidence in its negotiating position stems from its large market, growing industrial capabilities, and the wavering support of U.S. allies [23][26] - China is the largest buyer of chips globally, with over half of U.S. analog chip sales reliant on the Chinese market, making it a critical player for U.S. companies [23][25] - The shift in the global supply chain dynamics has reduced China's dependency on U.S. technology, with significant improvements in domestic production capabilities [28][30] Group 5 - The U.S. strategy of rallying allies against China is facing challenges, as countries like the EU and Japan are hesitant to sacrifice their economic ties with China [30][32] - China's recent actions signal a new baseline for negotiations, emphasizing equality and mutual respect, moving away from coercive tactics [32][34] - The expectation that the U.S. can intimidate China into concessions is no longer viable, indicating a shift in the balance of power in negotiations [34]

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 15 Sep 2025 电子 Technology 美国模拟芯片反倾销立案调查：政策指向、市场影响与企业应对策略 U.S. Analog IC Anti-Dumping Probe: Policy Objectives, Market Impact, and Corporate Response Strategies 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吕小潼 Xiaotong Lyu barney.sq.yao@htisec.com xt.lyu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 9 月 13 日，商务部发布 2025 年第 27 号公告，决定即日起对原产于美国的特定模拟芯片产品发起反倾销立案调查。 本次调查范围限于 40nm 及以上工艺的通用接口芯片（包括 CAN、RS-485、I²C 接口及数字隔离器等）与栅极驱动芯 片（含低边、半桥/多路及隔离驱动类产品，涉及税则号 854 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 9月15日消息， 近日，中国商务部启动了对美国芯片贸易政策的反歧视调查，并对倾销行为进行了单独调查。 第一项调查将审查华盛顿在芯片贸易政策中是否歧视中国公司。第二个将调查涉嫌倾销一些用于助听器、Wi-Fi 路由器和温度传感器等设备的美国模拟芯 片的进口。 该部在一份声明中表示，近年来，美国在芯片问题上对中国实施了一系列限制，包括贸易歧视调查和出口管制。 ***************END*************** 半导体公众号推荐 该组织补充说，这种"保护主义"做法涉嫌歧视中国，旨在遏制和打压中国发展先进计算芯片和人工智能等高科技产业。 商务部新闻发言人在答记者问时表示，此次反倾销调查是应中国国内产业申请发起，符合中国法律法规和世贸组织规则。调查涉及自美进口的通用接口和 栅极驱动芯片。 发言人提到，申请人提交的初步证据显示，2022至2024年，申请调查产品自美进口量累计增长37%，进口价格累计下降52%，压低和抑制了国内产品销售 价格，对国内产业的生产经营造成损害。 发言人说，调查机关收到申 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation against imported analog chips originating from the United States, responding to a formal request from the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents the domestic analog chip industry [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation was officially announced on September 13, 2025, and will cover the period of dumping from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, while the period for assessing industry damage will span from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024 [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that the total production of the applicant's relevant analog chips meets the qualifications required for initiating an anti-dumping investigation under Chinese law [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Preliminary evidence submitted by the applicant indicates that the import volume of the investigated products from the U.S. increased by 37% from 2022 to 2024, while the import prices decreased by 52%, negatively impacting the sales prices of domestic products and causing harm to the domestic industry [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce's spokesperson criticized the U.S. government's actions, claiming they violate World Trade Organization rules and harm the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure while maintaining reasonable aggregate growth [2][18]. - China's fiscal policy still has sufficient room for maneuver, with a special treasury bond issuance expected to leverage significant credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the policy path after September remains uncertain [4][5]. - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again after the fourth quarter [33]. - The domestic bond market is expected to be highly volatile in August - September, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3% [1]. - Social financing and credit in August 2025 showed significant changes, with an increase in M1 growth and a narrowing M1 - M2 gap [1][2][18]. - CPI in August 2025 was - 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's financial aggregates are large, and future monetary policy will focus on structural optimization [2][18]. - China - US economic and trade talks will discuss issues such as tariffs and TikTok [2]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, with a special treasury bond issuance to leverage credit [3][19]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, but the post - September policy path is uncertain [4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold and silver prices reached new highs, and Thai gold exports to Cambodia increased [6]. - Metal inventories in the LME showed significant changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is planned, and coal prices have fallen [9]. - Indonesia's seizure of a nickel mine has raised supply concerns [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's new LNG device was delivered, and international oil prices rebounded due to supply concerns [10]. - The EU may reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas [10]. - The US natural gas net long position increased, and the WTI crude oil net long position decreased [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's summer grain purchase was progressing smoothly, and US coffee prices rose [13]. - Most agricultural product prices in China declined, and Pakistan plans to purchase sugar [13][14]. - Speculators' net short positions in US soybeans and corn increased [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank adjusted the evaluation method for primary dealers in open - market operations and carried out reverse repurchase operations [16]. - The central bank will conduct a large - scale term reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity [16]. - There are large - scale reverse repurchase and treasury cash deposits maturing this week [17]. 3.3.2 Important News - China - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain [18]. - China's financial data showed strong support for the real economy, and there was a shift in household deposits [18][19]. - China's fiscal policy has sufficient room, and debt - related issues are being addressed [19][20]. - China opposes US export control measures and launches investigations [21][22][23]. - Policies to promote private investment and industry stability are being introduced [23][24]. - The real estate industry is in the stage of risk clearance, and banks have adjusted mortgage policies [25]. - Brokerage bond issuance reached a new high, and there were bond - related events and credit rating changes [26][27]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market showed a differentiated trend, with long - term bonds recovering [28]. - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, and convertible bond indices rose [28][29]. - Interest rates in the money market and bond issuance yields showed various changes [29][30][31]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [31]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index showed a slight increase [32]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Industrial product prices are unlikely to rebound sustainably, and PPI may decline again [33]. - The domestic bond market will be volatile, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be moderately strong [34]. - The market is in a complex situation with different signals from prices [34]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - A large number of bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and redeemed on September 15 [35]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Beijing Stock Exchange will switch stock codes for listed companies [36]. - The pattern of the public fund market has changed, with growth in the bond - holding scale of some institutions [36][37].

Group 1 - The US and China held trade talks in Madrid on September 14, focusing on unilateral tariffs, export controls, and TikTok [1][3][8] - The US Department of Commerce added 32 entities to its export control list, including 23 from mainland China, with 13 related to semiconductors and integrated circuits [4][5] - China initiated two investigations against the US regarding discriminatory practices in the integrated circuit sector and anti-dumping measures on imported simulation chips [1][6] Group 2 - The trade talks in Madrid are seen as a significant diplomatic opportunity for Spain, enhancing its status as a strategic negotiation center [2][3] - The ongoing trade war has impacted global economic stability, with the US extending the tariff truce for another 90 days, set to expire in November [3][4] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is facing challenges due to US export restrictions and price undercutting from American firms in the simulation chip market [6][7]

Core Points - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the United States, effective from September 13, 2025 [1] - The investigation was initiated following a formal request from the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association, which highlighted the impact of U.S. imports on the domestic analog chip industry [1] - The investigation is expected to conclude by September 13, 2026, with a possible extension of six months under special circumstances [1] Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce has also launched an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures affecting the integrated circuit sector, starting from September 13, 2025 [2] - Preliminary evidence suggests that U.S. measures against China in the integrated circuit field are discriminatory and violate China's foreign trade laws [2] - The spokesperson emphasized that U.S. protectionist measures, including Section 301 investigations and export controls, are detrimental to China's high-tech industries and the global semiconductor supply chain [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce will conduct the investigations with principles of fairness, justice, and transparency, inviting all stakeholders affected by U.S. measures to participate [2] - China is committed to taking necessary actions to protect the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises [2]