Core Viewpoint - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has been issued, which restricts high-end dining and alcohol consumption in official settings, leading to a decline in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Baijiu Industry - Following the announcement of the new regulations, several baijiu companies, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu, saw their stock prices drop by over 2%, with Jinshiyuan experiencing a decline of more than 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the impact of the new regulations on the baijiu industry will be limited, as the proportion of government consumption in baijiu sales has already decreased significantly, now accounting for less than 5% [1][2]. - The previous "Central Eight Regulations" have already reduced the share of government consumption in high-end baijiu, shifting the focus to business and residential demand [2]. Group 2: Historical Context of Regulations - The baijiu industry has faced multiple disruptions from "ban on alcohol" policies since 2011, with significant impacts noted after the introduction of the "Central Eight Regulations" [2][3]. - The government has implemented strict measures against public alcohol consumption, which has historically affected high-end baijiu sales, but the current market dynamics show a shift towards business and residential consumption [2][3]. Group 3: Business Wine Market Challenges - The decline in the public wine market has forced companies to focus on the business wine segment, which primarily consists of mid-to-high-end products [4]. - Major baijiu companies have adjusted their product structures, with a significant portion of revenue now coming from mid-to-high-end products [5]. - However, the business wine market is facing challenges, with reports indicating a substantial decrease in business consumption frequency and overall sales, with some companies experiencing a 20%-50% decline in performance [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many baijiu companies are proactively lowering their performance targets for 2025 to alleviate pressure, contrasting with previous years' growth ambitions [6]. - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have adjusted their revenue growth expectations to align more closely with macroeconomic indicators [6].

近两年来，白酒股多次受到"禁酒令"影响，2022年10月，由于传言公务员将执行更严格的"禁酒令"，当 日贵州茅台大跌超过5%，泸州老窖跌幅超过8%，多支白酒股跌幅超过5%。 酒类分析师蔡学飞告诉第一财经记者，2012年八项规定出台后，白酒行业受到重挫，第二轮白酒牛市结 束，进入深度调整期，因此市场对禁酒令有一定的恐慌。实际上类似文件每年都会颁布，而且目前中国 白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 中国白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 5月18日，新修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》（下称《条例》）正式印发，其中明确工作 餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。今日（19日）开盘后白酒股股价集体走低，但较几年 前"禁酒令"时波动有限。业内看来，中国白酒消费中政务消费的比例已经很低。 《条例》显示，在第四章公务接待部分，明确接待单位应当严格按照标准安排接待对象的住宿用房，协 助安排用餐、用车的按照标准收取伙食费、交通费。工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上 酒。不得在接待费中列支应当由接待对象承担的费用，不得以举办会议、培训等名义列支、转移、隐匿 接待费开支。 今日开盘后，白酒股股价集体走低，截至记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the historical Prohibition era in the United States and current economic challenges, highlighting how extreme policies can lead to unintended consequences and societal issues. Group 1: Historical Context of Prohibition - The Prohibition era began in 1920 with the aim of reducing alcohol consumption and improving societal morals, but it resulted in increased crime and a thriving black market for alcohol [2][4][6]. - The initial goals of Prohibition, such as reducing crime rates and improving public health, were not achieved; instead, the government lost tax revenue and incurred high enforcement costs [3][20]. - The rise of organized crime, particularly figures like Al Capone, was fueled by the lucrative illegal alcohol trade, leading to significant societal and economic impacts [12][16][17]. Group 2: Economic Implications - During Prohibition, the average annual alcohol consumption in the U.S. increased by 50%, and prices for alcoholic beverages skyrocketed, with beer prices rising by 700% [21][22]. - The government spent millions on enforcement, yet the lack of regulation led to dangerous practices in alcohol production, resulting in increased health risks for the public [21][22]. - The economic downturn during the Great Depression contributed to calls for the repeal of Prohibition, as restoring the alcohol industry was seen as a way to stimulate the economy and create jobs [22][23]. Group 3: Modern Parallels - The article suggests that current U.S. policies, such as tariffs and trade restrictions, are reminiscent of Prohibition, as they may lead to increased burdens on ordinary citizens and encourage alternative methods to circumvent regulations [24][25]. - The historical lesson indicates that extreme policies can exacerbate existing problems rather than resolve them, highlighting the need for more balanced approaches to economic challenges [24][25].