Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening, with increasing inventory. Although the terminal consumption of ore remains high, restocking is coming to an end, and the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term (within a week): weak and volatile; medium - term (two weeks to one month): volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Inventory is continuously increasing. Terminal consumption of ore remains high, but restocking is ending. The contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effects are weakening. The arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports is increasing, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high level. The supply of iron ore is increasing. Although the pre - holiday ore demand provides support for the ore price, the supply is rising, and the demand is weakening due to concerns about negative feedback. The fundamental contradictions will accumulate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2].

2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，高估值矿价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局走弱，库存迎来显著累库，钢厂生产趋稳，终端消耗高位回升，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但节前补库趋于尾声，而钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到 货如期回升，而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。 目前来 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产平稳，终端消耗维持高位，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求存有隐忧。与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升， 而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。总之，矿石需 求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 补库利好趋弱，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求韧性将转弱。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅增加， 海外矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应依旧偏高，叠加内矿供应也在恢复，供应压力有所增加。目前 来看， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局在走弱，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，叠加节前补库，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽延续回落， 但海外矿商发运大幅增加，再创下年内单周新高，海外供应重回高位，且内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应 压力持续增加。目前来看，矿石需求表现尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，高位矿价震荡上行，但需求料将 趋弱，供应也在回升，基本面并无实质性改善，叠加估值相对偏高，节前走势谨慎乐观，谨防产业矛 盾激化。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局在变，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，叠加节前钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且钢材利润持续收缩，矿石需求韧性趋弱。相反，国内港口到货环 比下降，但海外矿商发运则是大增并创下年内单周新高，海外供应显著回升，而内矿供应也在恢复， 矿石供应 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，矿石终端消耗如期回升，且假期钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，继续给予 矿价支撑，需注意的钢市矛盾在累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局迎变化，矿价上行趋弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂复产带来矿石终端消耗回升，且假期补库预期发酵，需求表现尚 可，继续给予矿价支撑，但下游矛盾未缓解，需求韧性趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海 外矿商发运环比大增且创下年内单周新高，海外矿石供应回升显著，按船期推算后续澳巴矿到货将触 底回升，叠加内矿供应恢复，矿石供应在增加。目前来看，得 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 基本面平稳运行，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局表现平稳，矿石终端消耗回升，叠加假期临近补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但需注意的是成材矛盾在累积，利润持续收缩，增量空间受限。同时，国内港口到货有所回落， 而海外矿商发运则是大幅下降，外矿供应有所收缩，而内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应短期偏低。目前来 看，铁矿石需求表现尚可，支撑矿价高位运行，但钢市矛盾在累积，且供应回升预期未退，矿市基本 面并未实质性改善，高估值矿价上行预期趋弱，后续走势谨慎乐观，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - and medium - term, and a slightly weaker volatile trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, as the supply - demand pattern has changed and the upward trend of ore prices has weakened [1] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Short - term ore demand has dropped significantly due to production restrictions, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are continuously shrinking, and the room for demand recovery is limited. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have returned to a high level, and ore supply has increased. The iron ore fundamentals are likely to weaken, and high - valued ore prices are under pressure. However, the expectation of the peak season and the intervention of varietal arbitrage funds support the short - term high - level volatile trend of ore prices, and it is necessary to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is slightly weaker volatile. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the change in the supply - demand pattern and the weakening of the upward trend of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Production restrictions have led to a significant short - term decline in ore demand, the contradiction in finished products is accumulating, steel mill profits are shrinking, and demand recovery space is limited. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded, overseas miners' shipments have reached a high level, and ore supply has increased. The fundamentals are likely to weaken, high - valued ore prices are under pressure, and the short - term high - level volatile trend is supported by the peak - season expectation and varietal arbitrage funds [2]