Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the fundamentals remaining weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. However, due to the large discount of the futures price, there is resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of long - and short - term factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price fluctuates at a low level [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, with continuous inventory accumulation. During the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, with the weakening demand trend remaining unchanged. On the contrary, overseas miners are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year, and even though domestic ore production is restricted and its output has decreased, the supply pressure of ore remains. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局在走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗高位偏弱运行，且淡季仍将下行，需求端 利好效应趋弱；相反海外矿石供应积极，且财年末有所冲量，即便内矿生产受限导致产量下降，但矿 石整体供应维持高位。目前来看，供强需弱局面铁矿石基本面走弱，矿价继续承压，相对利好则是期 价贴水较大，下行存有阻力，多空因素博弈下预计矿价将震荡偏弱运行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,826.69 -39.89 13,866.58 -39.89 14,927.76 -1,101.07 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,690.18 -64.15 8,754.33 -64.15 9,218.20 -528.02 45港铁矿石到货量 2,536.50 385.20 2,151.30 385.20 2,256.00 280.50 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,431.00 242.30 3,188.70 242.30 3,248.70 182.30 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.80 -0.11 241.91 -0.11 235.75 6.05 45港日均疏港量 313.99 -12.69 326.68 -12.69 312.82 1.17 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.48 0.80 299.68 0.80 288.10 12.38 主港铁矿成交周均值 95.20 -1.74 96.94 -1.74 97.58 -2.38 铁矿石周度数据（20250606） 库存 供给 需求 10,000 11,000 12,000 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价低位震荡 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，矿石终端消耗高位回落，且钢市淡季来临，钢厂生产趋弱，需求维持 弱势运行，相对利好则是短期降幅不大。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运均回升，且财年末存冲 量预期，海外矿石供应维持高位，即便内矿临检引发产量下降，供应压力维持高位。总之，供强需弱 局面铁矿 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,866.58 -121.25 14,261.00 -394.42 14,859.71 -993.13 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,754.33 -171.15 9,073.03 -318.70 9,203.76 -449.43 45港铁矿石到货量 2,151.30 -120.00 2,325.30 -174.00 2,424.00 -272.70 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,188.70 -159.10 2,925.50 263.20 3,326.60 -137.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.91 -1.69 244.35 -2.44 235.83 6.08 45港日均疏港量 326.68 -0.41 327.92 -1.24 313.51 13.17 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 299.68 -2.19 301.39 -1.71 287.53 12.15 主港铁矿成交周均值 102.75 9.95 106.10 -3.35 88.84 13.91 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250530） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are expected to be oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards strength. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA10 line, as the current situation is fair and the ore price is relatively strong [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is falling from a high level, and steel demand is seasonally weakening. The latest miner shipments have rebounded significantly, and domestic ore production is active, so supply pressure is large. The ore price is under pressure, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. The price operation logic switches between strong reality and weak expectation, and the trend is expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory with a bias towards strength. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is fair and the ore price is relatively strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is falling from a high level, and steel demand is seasonally weakening. The latest miner shipments have rebounded significantly to the second - highest weekly level this year, and domestic ore production is active. The ore price is under pressure, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. The price operation logic switches between strong reality and weak expectation, and the trend is expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求有所减量，当前降幅仍有限，给予矿价支撑， 但已然趋于触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，港口到货延续回落，但海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，外 矿供应高位，相应的内矿生产依然积极，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看，铁矿石需求趋于触顶，而供 应维持高位，供需格局在走弱，相对利好则是需求维持高位，且期价贴水较大，下行阻力存在，预计 矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面表现弱稳，矿价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求开始回落，目前降幅有限，仍将给予矿价支 撑，但矿石需求已然触顶，利好效应不强。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运高位回落，而内矿生 产积极，矿石供应维持高位，且回升预期未变。总之，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水修复逻辑支撑下矿 价低位回 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that for the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line as the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term trend of iron ore 2509 is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly sideways down. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are likely to weaken and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. High terminal consumption of ore supports the ore price, but the steel market is facing seasonal weakness, limiting the increase in ore demand and weakening the positive effect. - Although the port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are falling, the overall decline is not large, and domestic ore production is active, keeping the overall supply at a high level. - Due to the warming of market sentiment, the discounted ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the increase in ore demand is limited, while the supply remains high. The fundamentals are still likely to weaken, and the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade relationship shows signs of easing, with the negotiation outcome mainly depending on the US. The market expects the US to reduce tariffs to 80%, while China hopes to restore tariffs to the level before April. Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a vacuum, and future incremental policies will depend on tariff impacts and the performance of the equity market [3]. - Short - term demand has basically peaked but the inflection point is yet to come. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export end. As supply continues to rise, the iron ore supply - demand is expected to remain in a loose pattern [3]. - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The price range for the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and for the outer - market FE06 contract, it is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Logic - After the holiday, the iron ore price was generally weak. The monetary policy on May 7th caused a price pulse, and the Politburo meeting at the end of April and the monetary policy in early May both saw the fulfillment of positive factors. The terminal demand expectation is still weak. Although the high export data in April showed high resilience, the "rush - to - export" growth rate significantly declined. The weekly high - frequency data shows that the decline in the apparent demand for finished products last week exceeded the previous and seasonal levels. The rebar inventory decreased seasonally, while the hot - rolled coil inventory slightly increased. Future attention should be paid to the expected changes in exports and the impact of the weakening manufacturing processing profit on hot - rolled coils [2]. Supply - In April, iron ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume in April was 10313.80 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from - 6.5% in March to 1.3%, and the import value year - on - year rising from - 21.5% in March to - 12.2%. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady recovery in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron production has remained above 245 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks (Steel Union data). Considering the decline in the apparent demand for finished products and the expected impact on the export end, the upward potential of molten iron is limited, and there is a high probability that the short - term demand has reached its peak. However, the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is necessary to wait for the verification of negative factors on the export end. It is expected that the molten iron production will remain at a relatively high level next week [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Future attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [3].