We are of course getting into the heart of earnings season. Black Rockck's Rick Reer, he was with me yesterday on closing bell. He said the setup remains really good.Listen, >> I think there's a couple things at play. One, you've got an economy that's operating at a pretty good level. I mean, you just said printed or we think you're you printed second quarter GDP 38.Third quarter, we think it's running 33. You got an economy that's operating at a pretty good level. And you've got a Fed that's got to bring b ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance of China in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in GDP growth, a recovery in consumption, and ongoing challenges in manufacturing and infrastructure investment [4][6][12]. Economic Growth - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% [6][10]. - The total GDP for Q3 reached 354.5 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [6][10]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%, exceeding the annual target of 5% [6][12]. Consumption Trends - Overall consumption growth was slightly below expectations, with retail sales increasing by 3.0% in September, down from 3.4% [16][24]. - The retail sector showed structural differentiation, with categories like communication equipment and furniture experiencing significant growth, while home appliances and cultural products saw declines [20][24]. - Consumer spending growth lagged behind income growth, indicating a weak recovery in consumer confidence [24]. Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 371.5 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by only 1.1% [29][44]. - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a 1.1 percentage point drop to 4% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of decline [33][34]. - Real estate investment dropped by 13.9%, with new housing sales down 5.5% in the first nine months [50][60]. Industrial Production - Industrial value-added saw a substantial rebound in September, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, driven by seasonal production increases and strong export performance [63][69]. - The "golden September and silver October" period contributed to this growth, alongside policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [69][70]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first three quarters, with a slight decrease in September [75][76]. - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with rates for individuals aged 18-24 reaching 18.9%, indicating ongoing pressures in the job market [77].

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a slight rebound, maintaining a range-bound movement around 98.50 [1] - The British pound to US dollar exchange rate declined, currently trading at approximately 1.3385 [1] - The euro to Japanese yen exchange rate recently broke the 176.00 mark, currently reported at 176.01, with a daily increase of 0.31% [1] - The US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate also surpassed the 151.00 level, currently at 151.01, with a daily increase of 0.19% [1] Group 2 - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2] - The Ministry of Finance decided to conduct market support operations for government bonds in October 2025 [2] - The new loan market quotation rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with both the one-year and five-year LPR staying the same [2] - The US identified rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as key issues in US-China trade negotiations, to which the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [2] - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to expand the range of tradable products for qualified foreign institutional investors and renminbi qualified foreign institutional investors [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index strengthened for the third consecutive day, trading around 98.75, close to the daily high of 98.85 [3] - The euro to US dollar pair is targeting the October peak of 1.1778, supported by the high of 1.1918 from September [3] - The British pound to US dollar pair has broken above the 100-period simple moving average, indicating bullish momentum [3] - The US dollar to Japanese yen pair's recent low was 150.47, with key support levels identified [3] Group 4 - Key economic data to watch includes Switzerland's September trade balance and Canada's September CPI [4] - Japan is set to hold a prime ministerial election [4] - The US is expected to announce significant tariff measures against Colombia [4] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - On October 20, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.5%, IH by 0.3%, IC by 0.73%, and IM by 0.47%. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on this trading day, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603 rose, while IF2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 57144 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8343 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IF2512 having a multi - order net change of - 8401 and a short - order net change of - 7350 [2][3][6] - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, IH2606 rose. The total trading volume decreased by 36593 lots, and the total positions decreased by 8030 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IH2512 having a multi - order net change of - 6902 and a short - order net change of - 6989 [2][3][6] - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603 rose, while IC2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 37567 lots, and the total positions decreased by 3371 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IC2512 having a multi - order net change of - 7960 and a short - order net change of - 8101 [2][3][6] - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603 rose, while IM2606 fell. The total trading volume decreased by 62630 lots, and the total positions decreased by 9885 lots. The multi - and short - order positions of some contracts decreased, with IM2512 having a multi - order net change of - 15080 and a short - order net change of - 16587 [2][3][6] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] 3. Important Drivers - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20. Sino - US negotiations are about to resume. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8 [9]

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, down from 5.2% in Q2, impacted by a high base effect from last year[1] - Nominal GDP growth in Q3 was 3.7%, further declining from 3.9% in Q2, marking a new low for 2023[1] - Q3 GDP deflator decreased by 1%, a smaller decline compared to the 0.2 percentage points drop in Q2[1] Industrial Production - In September, industrial value-added increased by 6.5% YoY, significantly up from 5.2% in August[2] - Seasonally adjusted MoM growth in industrial production reached 0.64%, the highest since March[2] - Automotive manufacturing value-added surged by 16% YoY, improving by 7.6 percentage points from August[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales growth fell to 3% YoY in September, down from 3.4% in August[2] - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.2, continuing an upward trend since Q4 of last year[3] - Per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% YoY, while per capita consumption expenditure increased by 3.4%, both lower than Q2 growth rates[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 7.1% YoY in September, consistent with August's decline[3] - Infrastructure investment dropped by 8%, while real estate development investment fell by 21.3%, widening the decline from the previous month[3] - Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first three quarters showed a 0.5% YoY decrease, indicating negative growth[3] Real Estate Market - In September, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.5% YoY, close to August's decline[3] - New residential prices in 70 large and medium cities fell by 0.4% MoM, a larger drop than in August[3] - Overall, real estate demand remains weak, with sales revenue down by 11.8% YoY[3]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 内外动能或进入"转换期" ——9 月经济数据解读 ❖ 9 月数据解读：投资弱化、消费放缓，生产强势再回归 1、月度 GDP：9 月工业生产强势回归，带动二产增速边际上行，9 月 GDP 约 为 5.0%左右。其中三产增速平稳，二产在工业增速、基建投资回暖之下表现 改善，是 9 月 GDP 回升的主要动力。 2、基建：政策效果初显，传统基建边际回暖。单月看，不含电力基建投资 9 月同比-4.6%、全口径基建同比-8.0%，一升一降。9 月下旬，多地新型政策性 金融工具资金完成首笔投放，投资施工等高频指标开始改善，指向基建投资景 气或有上行，10 月政策效果释放或更为充分。 2、房地产：投资降幅扩大，销售持稳。1-9 月地产投资累计同比增速-13.9%， 单月同比-21.3%，继续下滑 1.8pct。住宅销售面积同比-11.4%、较上月扩大- 1.7pct。"金九"行情弱于去年同期表现，总量政策维持定力之下，四季度高基 数扰动或进一步放大。 3、制造业投资：9 月降幅继续走扩。9 月制造业投资同比-1.9%，降幅扩大 0.6pct， 1-9 月累计同比+4.0%。国 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrates strong resilience amid multiple pressures, achieving a GDP of 1,015,036 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price changes [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The nominal GDP increased from 975,357.4 billion RMB in the previous year to 1,015,036 billion RMB, with a net increase of 39,678.6 billion RMB, resulting in a nominal growth rate of 4.1% [3][4]. - The difference between the nominal growth rate and the real growth rate indicates a price level decline of approximately 1.1% compared to 2020, suggesting some "contraction" pressure [3][4]. Future Projections - If the current economic recovery momentum continues, a real economic growth of around 5.1% is expected for the entire year of 2025, with nominal GDP projected to increase by approximately 4% from 2024, reaching between 140 trillion and 141 trillion RMB [4][6]. - The GDP in USD terms for the first three quarters of 2025 is estimated at approximately 141,681.89 billion USD, maintaining China's position as the second-largest economy globally [6][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - Robust macroeconomic policies have provided a solid foundation for stable economic performance, with proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies enhancing market vitality [10]. - The acceleration of new and old kinetic energy conversion, particularly in high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, is driving economic growth [10]. - Continuous release of domestic demand potential and effective investment in infrastructure and green transformation are contributing to economic stability [10]. Challenges Ahead - Despite positive growth indicators, challenges remain, including insufficient effective demand in certain sectors and rising uncertainties in the external environment [11]. - The focus will be on maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to ensure high-quality development and consolidate the positive economic recovery trend [11][12].

GDP Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% [1] - Barclays increased its forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% [1] - Standard Chartered revised its projection upward to 4.9% from 4.8% [1]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening economic growth momentum[2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, GDP reached 101.50 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declined by 0.5% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since August 2020[5] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, significantly impacting overall investment performance[5] Infrastructure and Manufacturing Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by only 1.1% year-on-year, constrained by local debt restrictions[5] - Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing remaining a bright spot[5] Consumer Spending - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.59 trillion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, but September's growth slowed to 3.0%[6] - Consumer confidence remains low, with underlying issues such as weak income expectations persisting[6] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains pressured by external uncertainties and a lack of internal demand[4] - Upcoming policy guidance from the 20th Central Committee and potential US-China talks are critical for future economic direction[2]