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Group 1: Inflation and Market Expectations - The current CPI numbers indicate that inflation is rising but not at an alarming rate, suggesting a cautious outlook for the Fed's future actions [1][5] - The market is expected to anticipate more aggressive Fed activity, leading to a potential decrease in yields, particularly in the two-year and three-year segments, by approximately 20 basis points over the next month [2][3] - There is a debate regarding the sources of inflation, with some analysts suggesting it may be structural rather than solely tariff-based, which could impact the anticipated Fed cuts [4][5] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has shown signs of softening, with secondary indicators such as job openings and the quits rate declining significantly from late 2022 to mid-2024 [6][7] - The layoffs rate has remained steady, with a slight increase recently, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market that could concern Fed leaders [8] - The disconnect between labor market data and other economic indicators raises questions about the overall GDP pace and the Fed's response to these trends [6][8]

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Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]

Um, while AI optimism is booming though, there are some concerns about the broader economy. JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond told our Lesie Picker, "The latest jobs data confirms that the economy is weakening, as he put it. That comes as investors turn their attention to a key inflation report tomorrow morning." Joining us now is Pollson Perspectives author Jim Pollson. Jim, we we did get another inflation report though, producer price index suggesting that wholesale prices not surging as much as people feared.So ...

And joining me now exclusively is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Mr.. Secretary, welcome back to Meet the Press. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you so much for being here. I do want to start right there on the jobs numbers. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset told me in an interview the numbers look quote weak. And you just heard me say there that Moody's chief economist called this a jobs recession. I want to give you the opportunity to respond to Mark Xandandy. Do you see this as a jobs ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Employment data in the US is under pressure again, leading to a significant decline in US Treasury yields. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting has increased significantly [1][3][9][11]. - The US manufacturing and service industries show different trends, with the manufacturing industry moving from contraction to expansion, while the service industry is still in a good expansion state but with a slowdown in expansion speed. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, contrary to market expectations [2][10]. - Global stock markets are mixed, with European markets generally under pressure. Precious metals in the commodity market hit new highs, and risk preferences are polarized. Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB [4][15][16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Indicator Review Employment - In July, JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, dropping to a 10 - month low (7.181 million, lower than the forecast of 7.380 million and the previous value of 7.357 million) [9]. - In August, the US ADP employment increase was only 54,000, far lower than the expected 73,000 and the previous value of 106,000, indicating a significant weakening of employment growth momentum [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims this week exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, higher than the forecast of 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000, confirming the cooling trend of the labor market [9]. - The month - on - month growth rate of average hourly wages in August met expectations and was the same as the previous value (0.3%) [9]. - In August, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll employment increase was only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000 and a more than 70% drop from the previous value, further lowering the market's expectations for the employment market [9]. - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 4.2%. The market's expectation for the interest - rate cut amplitude at the September meeting increased significantly [1][9]. Economy - In August, the US Markit manufacturing PMI increased significantly to 53.0, returning above 50 and indicating that the manufacturing industry moved from the contraction range in July to the expansion range [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than expected but up 0.7 points from the previous value [2][10]. - In August, the US Markit services PMI was lower than expected and declined from the previous value, but it was still above 50, indicating that the service industry was still in a good expansion state [2][10]. - In August, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI rebounded above expectations, reaching 52.0 and remaining above 50 for three consecutive months [2][10]. - The US EIA crude oil inventory this week increased significantly to 2.415 million barrels, far exceeding the expected - 2.000 million barrels and the previous value of - 2.392 million barrels [2][10]. 3.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review US - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the 1 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields dropped by 18bp and 13bp respectively, to 3.05% and 4.1%. Employment data put pressure on the market, and the Fed's attitude remains cautious. The market's expectation for a 50bp interest - rate cut at the September meeting has heated up again, but the possibility is still low. Multiple 25bp interest - rate cuts this year are more likely, and the possibility of consecutive interest - rate cuts is small [3][11]. Europe and Japan - The Japanese bond market was stable with small fluctuations. The 1 - year and 10 - year Japanese bond yields fluctuated by - 0.34bp and - 0.8bp respectively, to 0.7% and 1.62%. - The German bond market was also stable. The 2 - year and 10 - year German bond yields fluctuated by 3.00bp and 0bp respectively, to 1.96% and 2.71% [3][14]. 3.3 Other Asset Class Reviews Equity - Global stock markets were mixed. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (+1.36%), the US NASDAQ (+1.14%), and the Indian Sensex30 (+1.13%) led the gains, supported by the rebound of the technology and financial sectors. In contrast, the German DAX (-1.28%), A - shares (-1.18%), and the Vietnamese VN30 (-1.07%) declined significantly, mainly affected by macro - economic and capital - market pressures, and European markets were generally under pressure [4][15]. Commodity - Precious metals performed brightly. London silver rose by 5.01%, and London gold rose by 4.82% this week, breaking through the historical high of $3,587 per ounce, highlighting the surge in market risk - aversion demand. Crude oil and agricultural products generally declined, while some black - series commodities rose slightly. Bitcoin rebounded by 2.12%, showing a polarized risk preference [4][16]. Foreign Exchange - Non - US and non - European currencies have generally weakened against the RMB. The US dollar and the euro exchange rates against the RMB rose by 0.08% and 0.10% respectively, while the Japanese yen, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee exchange rates against the RMB fell by 0.71%, 1.14%, and 0.62% respectively [4][17]. 3.4 Market Tracking The report provides multiple charts, including the US Treasury auction panel, FED WATCH latest target - rate expectations, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the weekly changes in bond yields of major global economies, the weekly changes in major commodities, the weekly changes in major foreign exchange rates against the RMB, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [12][13][19][20][22][26][29][32][39][46].

Group 1 - The article discusses the prediction that the future global power dynamics will include the United States, China, India, and the European Union as the top four influential entities [1][3] - The European Union, despite being a collective of 27 countries, faces internal challenges and is seen as struggling to maintain its position among the top powers [3][5] - India is highlighted for its demographic advantage with a young population and a GDP of $3.85 trillion, but it faces significant challenges in its business environment, including bureaucratic hurdles and trade tensions [5][6] Group 2 - The United States is experiencing economic difficulties, with a projected GDP decline of 0.3% in Q1 2025 and a national debt exceeding $36.6 trillion, which translates to over $100,000 per citizen [5][6] - China achieved a GDP of over 130 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest economy globally, but still lags behind the U.S. in per capita GDP, which is over $70,000 [6][7] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing gaps in technology and manufacturing capabilities, suggesting that true strength comes from self-improvement rather than external validation [7]

How do you invest in what appears to be a slowing but still growing economy. Rebecca Patterson is former chief investment strategist at Bridgewwater Associates, also a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Is it wrong to characterize this economy as slowing but still growing.>> From the labor market perspective, it's definitely slowing. I would even say stalling. You know, the challenge is going to be the disconnect between GDP reports and labor reports in the coming months and maybe quarters, ...