Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue growth rate of 8.2% and a net profit growth rate of 6.2% for 2024. The net interest income grew by 17.3%, driven by strong balance sheet expansion and a stable recovery in interest margins. However, non-interest income decreased by 9.9%, with no significant investment income released. The year-end other comprehensive income saw a substantial increase, indicating potential future revenue sources [2][6]. Summary by Sections Performance - The company's revenue growth accelerated in Q4, with a full-year interest income growth of 17.3%, attributed to high growth in scale and relatively stable interest margins. Non-interest income decreased by 9.9%, with fee income down by 19.3% and investment income down by 6.2%. The net profit slightly decreased due to a rise in the tax rate, while the cost-to-income ratio improved and credit costs decreased, enhancing profitability [11][10]. Scale - The company experienced significant loan growth of 17.8% for the year, expected to lead the industry. The year-end corporate, bill, and retail loans grew by 24.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0%, respectively. The growth in corporate loans was primarily in leasing, wholesale, and real estate sectors, while retail loans, including mortgages and personal consumption loans, showed strong growth [11][10]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the year was 1.86%, showing a recovery of 1 basis point from the previous quarter and a decline of only 2 basis points year-on-year, outperforming peers. The loan yield was 4.84%, with a decrease in personal loan yields. Deposit costs improved, with an annual deposit cost rate of 1.94%, indicating a downward trend in deposit costs expected to continue into 2025 [11][10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% at year-end, with a decline in the provision coverage ratio to 389%. The annual NPL generation rate was 1.26%, with a slight increase in Q4, primarily due to retail loan pressures. The company maintained strong asset quality in corporate loans, particularly in real estate [11][10]. Investment Recommendations - The company significantly increased its dividend payout ratio to 22.8%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.8% for 2024. The strong revenue growth, high net interest income, and stable interest margins indicate a positive outlook. The company is positioned for sustainable growth, with a current valuation of 0.68x 2025 PB, maintaining a "Buy" rating [11][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ningbo Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 28.09 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.36 CNY [5]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank's 2024 revenue showed a steady growth of 8.19% year-on-year, with pre-provision profit increasing by 13.92% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 6.23% [1][11]. - The bank's net interest margin demonstrated resilience, with a slight decrease of only 2 basis points compared to 2023, outperforming peers [8][10]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan generation rate gradually declining, benefiting from controlled consumer credit expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Ningbo Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.78% year-on-year, driven by scale expansion, widening net interest margin, and cost savings, despite a slowdown in non-interest income growth and increased taxes [1]. - The average daily balance of interest-earning assets grew by 16.01% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 5.64 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [1][8]. - The bank's non-interest income decreased by 12.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [8]. Credit and Asset Quality - New loans in Q4 2024 totaled 214 billion CNY, a decrease of 153 billion CNY year-on-year, with both corporate and retail credit growth lagging behind 2023 levels [2][10]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with improvements in corporate loan asset quality [9][32]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 389.35%, indicating strong risk resistance capabilities [9][32]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.50% and a net profit growth of 5.48% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet while controlling risk [11][12]. - The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased to 22.77%, reflecting a stronger commitment to shareholder returns [10][11].

从2024年业绩报告中也可以看出该行在信贷投放上不断加码，2024年全年信贷净增量超过3700亿元，创下历史新高。浦发银行行长谢伟提及，2024年贷款在 生息资产中占比提高3.25个百分点，资产结构得以优化，有助于稳定净息差水平。 记者注意到，在信贷增量创下新高的同时，浦发银行不良贷款率也降至近十年来最低水平，2024年末为1.36%。 在日前召开的2024年度业绩说明会上，谢伟在谈及该行业绩表现时坦言，相对于上一年的表现及市场环境，整体比较满意；但是相对于同业市场、主要对标 银行的综合经营现状，感觉还是有很大的压力，"我们必须要坚守长期、对标行业，奋起直追"。 每经记者 李玉雯 每经编辑 张益铭 4月8日，浦发银行披露2025年第一季度主要经营情况公告。截至今年一季度末，该行贷款总额（不含票据贴现）达53230.05亿元，较上年末增长2545.84亿 元，增幅5.02%，贷款净增量创近年来单季新高。 净利润增幅创近十二年新高 年报显示，浦发银行2024年实现营业收入1707.48亿元，剔除上年同期出售上投摩根股权一次性因素影响后，同比增长0.92%；实现归属于母公司股东的净利 润452.57亿元，同比增长2 ...

Economic Overview - In Q4 2024, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, indicating an acceleration in economic growth compared to Q3 2024 [1][5] - The Hong Kong government announced a budget for 2025/26 with a significant increase in overall expenditure, projected to support economic development in the medium term [6][8] Domestic Demand - Private consumption expenditure decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [2][5] - Local fixed capital formation fell by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant drop in investment growth in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][15] External Demand - Hong Kong's merchandise exports grew by 1.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, but the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [2][16] - Service exports increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with notable recoveries in financial, tourism, and transportation services [2][17] Employment and Inflation - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Q4 2024 was 3.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from Q3 2024, remaining at historical lows [18][19] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from Q3 2024, indicating moderate inflation [20] Interest Rates and Currency - Hong Kong's interest rates were cut by 50 basis points in Q4 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points for the year [21][22] - The Hong Kong dollar appreciated slightly against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.77 HKD/USD to 7.76 HKD/USD in Q4 2024 [24] Financial Markets - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with average daily trading volume increasing to 186.1 billion HKD, up from 121.1 billion HKD in Q3 2024 [26][30] - There was a significant inflow of southbound and overseas funds, with net inflows of 304.3 billion HKD and 2.779 billion USD respectively in Q4 2024 [30] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Hong Kong saw a substantial increase in transaction volumes, with new and second-hand home sales rising by 100% and 31% respectively quarter-on-quarter [3][31] - The average rent for private residential properties increased by 3.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024, while the rental yield stabilized at around 3.6% [32][37] Banking Sector - Customer deposits in Hong Kong's banking sector grew by 7.1% year-on-year by the end of 2024, while customer loan balances decreased by 2.8% [4][43] - The net interest margin improved slightly due to a decrease in funding costs, despite the overall loan demand being constrained by high interest rates [52][54]

以数据聚焦重点，重点永不失焦！欢迎阅读 "彭博数据洞察" 月报，基于超过8000个彭博企业 数据集，为您提供有关市场热点问题、最新趋势的深度分析与洞见。您可点击文末 "阅读原文" 链接，联系我们预约有关数据服务的演示。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博数据洞察月报 本期聚焦： 美国大选后，供应链集中于美国的公司表现 自美国大选以来，供应链集中在美国的公司是否跑赢了同行？ 在本研究中，我们通过比较具有不同程度美国供应链风险敞口公司的表现，研究供应链作为 系统性投资因素对美国股票和信贷市场的影响。 在互联关系日益密切的全球经济中，了解特定国家或地区对经营风险的影响对投资者而言至 关重要。本研究分析了公司在美国市场的经营敞口（由供应链和厂房位置等衡量），对其金 融市场表现有何影响。 我们的分析重点关注2 0 2 4年11月罗素1 0 0 0指数成份股。利用彭博企业数据产品识别出各公 司的相关供应商、客户和厂房位置。 我们从时间点数据域中筛选出在交易决策日至少有一家 供应商、客户或厂房（具体取决于研究内容）的公司。 需获取完整研究报告？ 扫描二维码申请阅读。 在下图示例中，我们根据公司在美国的间接敞口对罗素1 0 0 0指 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The revenue growth of listed banks in the fourth quarter has generally rebounded, with large banks benefiting from a low base in Q4 2023 and increased investment income and foreign exchange gains [2][6] - Most banks maintain positive net profit growth, with large banks seeing a comprehensive turnaround in net profit growth, while high-quality city commercial banks lead in growth rates [2][6] - The net interest margin decline in the fourth quarter was better than expected, reflecting accelerated improvement in funding costs [2][8] - Asset quality is generally stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while the provision coverage ratio has generally declined, supporting profit growth [2][9] - Retail risk in the industry is rising, with expectations of continued pressure on retail risk in the first half of 2025 [2][9] - Dividend ratios for large banks remain stable, with state-owned banks maintaining a high certainty of a 30% dividend ratio [2][10] Performance Growth - In 2024, most state-owned banks and city commercial banks achieved positive revenue growth, with a trend of accelerated growth in Q4 [6][20] - The net profit growth of large state-owned banks has turned positive, with high-quality city commercial banks maintaining leading growth rates [6][20] Scale Expansion - Credit growth has generally slowed, with high-quality city commercial banks continuing to lead [7][27] - State-owned banks have seen a decrease in credit growth after rapid expansion over the past two years, while high-quality regional city commercial banks maintain strong growth [7][27] Profitability - The decline in net interest margin has slowed significantly, with an average decline of 1.5 basis points for state-owned banks in 2024 [8][24] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for 23 banks has decreased by 14 basis points [8][24] Asset Quality - Among 35 banks, 24 have seen a year-on-year decrease in non-performing loan ratios, while 9 have remained stable [9][29] - The provision coverage ratio has generally declined, particularly for retail banks, reflecting a reduction in credit impairment provisions [9][29] Dividend Ratio - Most banks maintain stable dividend ratios, with state-owned banks expected to maintain a 30% dividend ratio [10][12]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the combined revenue of 23 listed banks in 2024 is expected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 1.8%, showing a marginal improvement in performance [1] Group 1: Overall Review - The revenue and net profit growth rates continue to show improvement but remain under pressure [1] - The net interest margin contraction is still the main drag on performance, although the decline has narrowed by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The net interest margin contraction is expected to negatively impact performance by approximately 11.1%, while scale expansion will contribute to performance growth by about 8.7% [2] - Net interest income is projected to decline by approximately 2.3%, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points [2] - Fee-based income is expected to negatively impact performance by about 1.1%, while other non-interest income will contribute to performance growth by approximately 2.8% [2] - A decrease in asset impairment losses is anticipated to contribute to performance growth of 2.9% [2] Group 3: Asset Quality Outlook - The non-performing loan generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain high in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [3] - The new non-performing loan balance in 2024 is primarily expected to come from retail loans, while corporate loans are projected to see a decline in non-performing loans [3] - Economic downturn is leading to decreased repayment capacity, particularly in retail loans, due to insufficient risk screening and post-loan management [3] Group 4: Performance Outlook - For 2025, the revenue growth rate for listed banks is expected to be around -1%, with net profit growth projected at approximately 1% [4] - The net interest margin is expected to contract by about 12 basis points in 2025 [4] - The asset expansion rate is anticipated to slow to around 7.0%, leading to a near-zero decline in net interest income [4] - Retail loan non-performing loan generation is expected to remain high, but banks will continue to release profits by reducing provisions, resulting in a slight positive growth in net profit [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the banking industry [4][70]. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the banking sector shows improvement, with a slight increase in net profit despite revenue decline [11][69]. - Retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to remain high in 2025, but a turning point is anticipated in 2026 [2][49]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is projected to narrow by approximately 12 basis points in 2025, with net interest income expected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the banking sector due to external uncertainties, recommending high-dividend stocks in the short term, while favoring high-growth quality stocks for the year [70]. Summary by Sections Overall Review - In 2024, 23 listed banks reported a revenue decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.8%, indicating a slight improvement in performance [11][69]. - The main factors affecting net profit growth include a 11.1% decline due to narrowing NIM and an 8.7% increase from scale expansion [14][69]. Asset Quality Outlook - The NPL generation rate for retail loans is expected to remain volatile at high levels in 2025, with a potential turning point in 2026 [2][49]. - The overall NPL ratio for the 23 listed banks was 1.25% at the end of 2024, showing a slight improvement [16][23]. Performance Outlook - The report predicts a revenue growth rate of approximately -1% and a net profit growth rate of about 1% for 2025, marking the end of the current performance downturn cycle [69][70]. - The NIM is expected to narrow by 12 basis points, while net interest income is projected to stabilize near zero [55][69]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, high-dividend stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank are recommended due to the lack of clear positive changes in the macroeconomic environment [70]. - For the entire year, high-growth quality stocks like China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank are favored [70].

Core Insights - The six major state-owned banks in China have shown steady growth in their financial performance, with total assets nearing 200 trillion yuan and a slight increase in profitability despite challenges such as narrowing interest margins and asset-liability issues [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the six banks collectively achieved an operating income of approximately 3.52 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with four banks reporting positive growth [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the six banks reached 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of about 245 billion yuan or 1.8% compared to the previous year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Interest income for the six banks decreased by 1.58%, with three banks reporting increases and three reporting declines [4]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 34.1% year-on-year, driven by factors such as a favorable bond market [4]. Asset and Loan Growth - Total assets of the six banks reached 199.68 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 15 trillion yuan or 7.87% from the beginning of the year [7][8]. - The total amount of loans and advances exceeded 118 trillion yuan, with an increase of 9.55 trillion yuan or 8.85% year-on-year [7][8]. Credit Allocation - The banks have maintained strong support for key sectors, with significant loan growth in manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and green development [9][10]. - Despite a slowdown in new credit issuance, the banks continue to support the real economy, particularly in critical areas [9]. Liability Management - Total liabilities for the six banks were approximately 184 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.01% from the beginning of the year [10]. - The total deposits reached about 142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 6.66 trillion yuan or 4.91% year-on-year, although there was a noticeable outflow of corporate deposits [10][11]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality has improved, with most banks reporting a stable or declining non-performing loan (NPL) ratio [13][14]. - However, there is a rising trend in NPLs within retail sectors such as personal housing loans and credit cards [13][15]. Support for Private Enterprises - The banks have committed to supporting private enterprises, with significant loan balances reported, particularly by Agricultural Bank and Construction Bank [16][17]. - The focus on financing for private enterprises is expected to continue, with plans for substantial credit support in the coming years [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's foreign currency asset hedging has mitigated the decline in interest margins, while its asset quality continues to improve [2][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 630.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 237.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.56% increase [5][7]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 200.60%, indicating robust asset quality [5][7]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.40%, with a slight reduction of 1 basis point, showing signs of stabilization [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share for 2024, representing a 2.54% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total assets reached 35.06 trillion yuan, growing by 8.11% year-on-year, while total loans amounted to 21.54 trillion yuan, up by 8.22% [5][8]. - Deposits totaled 24.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.66% [5][8]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 625.51 billion, 650.33 billion, and 683.35 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -0.73%, 3.97%, and 5.08% [8][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 238.85 billion, 243.84 billion, and 249.12 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 0.42%, 2.09%, and 2.17% respectively [8][17]. Dividend Information - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a projected dividend yield of 4.34% based on the current share price [9][17].