｜2025年5月27日星期二｜ NO.1 融创中国境外债重组方案获82%债权人支持 5月26日，融创中国发布公告称，其总规模约95.5亿美元的境外债重组方案，截至目前，现有票据约 82%的持有人已递交加入重组支持协议的函件，对整体债务而言也有约64%的债权人已递交加入重组支 持协议的函件，另有若干债权人正在履行加入重组支持协议的必要流程。在公告中，融创中国对境外债 权人的支持表达了充分感谢，并邀请余下的债权人加入重组支持协议。在6月6日下午5时前加入支持协 议的债权人，将获得债务本金总额0.5%的基础同意费，以新强制可转债形式提供。 点评：这显示债权人对融创中国"全额债权转股权"方案的认可度较高。此次重组通过新强制可转债形式 提供0.5%基础同意费激励，进一步吸引剩余债权人参与，为后续全面化解债务风险奠定基础。 点评：碧桂园当前的核心矛盾在于债务重组方案能否全面落地，以及经营修复能否支撑长期偿债能力。 若重组成功，将显著改善市场对其"轻装上阵"的预期，但短期内仍需警惕方案分歧及政策效果滞后带来 的不确定性。 NO.4 乐升控股不再是阳光100中国控股股东 5月26日早间，阳光100中国控股有限公司公告称，海通 ...

Core Insights - China's urban development is transitioning from large-scale expansion to a new phase that emphasizes both quality improvement of existing stock and optimization of new increments, with urban renewal becoming a key driver for expanding domestic demand and stimulating investment and consumption [1] Group 1: Urban Renewal Policies - The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed establishing sustainable urban renewal models and regulatory frameworks [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the vigorous implementation of urban renewal initiatives [1] - The recently issued "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions" outlines a clear timetable, roadmap, and blueprint for urban renewal, accelerating its implementation [1] Group 2: Financial Support for Urban Renewal - Financial institutions are encouraged to actively participate in urban renewal projects under the premise of legal compliance, risk control, and commercial sustainability, providing policy support for financing [1] - In Shanghai, the Development Bank issued 500 million yuan in medium to long-term loans to support the renovation of aging gas pipelines across 12 administrative districts, enhancing urban gas safety [1] Group 3: Case Studies of Urban Renewal - In Jiangxi, the Development Bank has supported the renovation of old residential areas since 2021, with a total credit amount of 1.4 billion yuan and loans of 1.32 billion yuan for infrastructure improvements [2] - In Jiangsu, a financing model combining central and local government funds with Development Bank support has been used to protect and revitalize historical cultural cities and heritage [2] - In Beijing, the Development Bank has supported the renovation of old factories, providing 10.2 billion yuan in credit and 2.94 billion yuan in loans, which is significant for industrial upgrading and sustainable urban development [2] Group 4: Future Directions for Urban Renewal Financing - The Development Bank aims to innovate financing models in accordance with market-oriented and legal principles, integrating infrastructure, living environment, and industrial development [3] - The bank will leverage its advantages in financing, intelligence, and systems to assist local governments in creating sustainable urban renewal models [3]

1-4月房地产企业新增大地信 | 序号 | 企业 | 全口径土地储备 (万平方米) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 保利发展控股 | 145.57 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 128.22 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 126.75 | | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 110.42 | | 5 | 苏海润城发 | 108.00 | | 6 | 越秀地产 | 104.83 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 96.17 | | 8 | 华润置地 | 87.05 | | 9 | 中国雄安集团 | 86.68 | | 10 | 演汇集团 | 83.66 | | 11 | 南通海欣实业 | 71.62 | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 江苏长江口开发 | 68.51 | | <13 | 中国金茂 | 66.60 | | 14 | 中能建 | 44.92 | | । ਦੇ | 瑞安国投安居 | 43.72 | | 16 | 保利置业 | 42.83 | | 17 | 杭州航承置业 | 40.46 | | 18 | 邦泰集团 | 40.43 | | 19 | 义乌稳宸置业 | 34. ...

当日，由中铁二十局集团承建的河北省保定市城中村改造三期工程南刘各庄村安置区项目中的11栋安置 楼房交付。近年来，河北省持续发力推进城中村改造，坚持优先选取交通便利、环境优良的区域，高标 准规划建设安置房，并同步推进教育、医疗、商业服务、公共交通等配套设施建设，努力打造高品质社 区，改善群众住房条件，助力城市更新。(新华社) ...

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Chongqing Aoya Architectural Planning and Design Co., Ltd., has received the renewal of its Class A qualification in the construction industry, which is crucial for enhancing its competitive edge in urban renewal projects [1] Group 1 - The qualification certificate was issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China [1] - The certificate is valid from May 12, 2025, to May 12, 2030, allowing the company to engage in various design services including architectural decoration, curtain wall engineering, and lightweight steel structure design [1] - The renewal of this qualification is expected to strengthen the company's core competitiveness in the urban renewal sector and facilitate the implementation of comprehensive solutions for revitalizing urban stock assets [1]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 5 月 26 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月23日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1406.5 | 1406 | 1418 | 1376 | 1383 | -1.81% | 25,439 | 55,648 | | 940 0.00 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has become more proactive, leading to improved market expectations, although marginal downward pressure has increased since April [3] - The industry is transitioning from a rapid decline in volume and price, with structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [3] - The importance of real estate in the economic cycle cannot be overlooked, emphasizing the need to focus on companies with regional and product advantages, local leaders benefiting from debt reduction, and state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows [3] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.33% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 6.79%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries [4] - The performance of the sector has been generally weak, with declines in development and property management companies, while rental companies showed mixed results [4] Policy Updates - The State Council announced measures to promote urban renewal, with a focus on increasing investment and supporting urban renewal projects [5] - Shanghai is accelerating the development of a new real estate model, expanding the scope of old community renovations, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing [5] Sales Data - New home transaction area in 37 cities showed a rolling year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while second-hand home transactions increased by 10.5% [6] - Year-to-date, new home transactions in 37 cities have increased by 1.5%, and second-hand home transactions have increased by 25.3% [6] Key Areas with Stable Cash Flow - The report identifies three key areas with stable cash flow: 1. State-owned enterprise property leaders with excess cash and stable profit growth 2. Comprehensive real estate companies with quality self-owned assets, such as China Resources Land 3. Quality real estate companies in core regions that can still generate stable profits despite industry downturns [7]

5月25日周日《新闻联播》要闻20条 智通财经5月25日电，今天《新闻联播》主要内容有： 1、习近平向第二十届中国西部国际博览会致贺信； 2、【新思想引领新征程】共建西部陆海新通道 助力更高水平对外开放； 3、李强抵达雅加达开始对印度尼西亚进行正式访问； 4、李强同印尼总统共同出席中国—印尼工商界晚宴并致辞； 5、李强出席印度尼西亚总统举行的欢迎仪式； 6、李强同印度尼西亚总统会谈； 7、持续推进城市更新 提升人民生活品质； 8、1至4月我国电子商务实现平稳增长； 9、4月航空运输总周转量保持两位数增长； 10、【一线调研】一张"膜"背后的创新密码； 11、【文化中国行】山西晋祠：跨越千年的古建博物馆； 12、全国累计春灌面积近4亿亩； 13、《网络交易平台收费行为合规指南》今起向社会征求意见； 14、C919飞机开启上海往返厦门航线商业运营； 15、2025年新疆旅游和发展大会召开； 18、俄乌确认互换千名被俘人员行动完成； 19、法国东南部发生停电 波及戛纳电影节； 20、美国佛州一商店发生爆炸 10人受伤。 16、巴称加沙地带遭袭致近300人死伤 媒体称以军准备进一步加大攻势 联合国敦促以色列允许更多人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [16]. Core Insights - The current phase shows a gradual decline in the development sector's industry prosperity, with weak expectations for policy easing. The promotion of existing housing sales policies is not fully realized, and overall transaction value remains unclear. Sectors with stable cash flow and potential high dividends are more defensive and have long-term allocation value. The sectors are ranked by cash flow certainty as follows: 1) undervalued central state-owned enterprise property leaders with excess cash and stable profit and cash flow growth, 2) comprehensive real estate companies with quality self-holding assets, such as China Resources Land, and 3) strong real estate companies in core areas [3][13]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.33% this week, with an excess return of -1.15% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 23rd out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 6.79%, with an excess return of -5.45%, ranking 30th out of 32 [10][19]. Policy Updates - The State Council introduced measures to promote urban renewal, while Shanghai released a special plan to boost consumption. The central government aims to support urban renewal projects and innovate financing models. Locally, Shanghai is accelerating the development of a new real estate model and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing [11][21]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new and second-hand housing transactions are fluctuating at low levels. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 10.5% year-on-year. Year-to-date, new housing transactions are up 1.5%, and second-hand transactions are up 25.3% [12][23]. Focus Areas for Investment - The report highlights three areas with stable cash flow: 1) central state-owned enterprise property leaders maintaining slight growth in net profit and cash flow, 2) comprehensive real estate companies with quality self-holding assets, and 3) strong real estate companies in core regions that can still generate stable profits despite industry downturns [9][13].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of urban renewal is set to significantly impact the real estate market, with a focus on improving living conditions and stimulating domestic demand rather than creating wealth through demolition and reconstruction [2][19]. Group 1: Urban Renewal vs. Previous Housing Renovation - The current urban renewal differs fundamentally from the previous "shelter improvement" initiatives, which allowed individuals to gain wealth through direct financial compensation [4][5]. - Urban renewal is likened to repairing an old car instead of replacing it, focusing on maintaining and upgrading existing structures rather than large-scale demolition [8][10]. - The government aims to stimulate consumption and boost employment through urban renewal, which is seen as a crucial strategy for expanding domestic demand [12][16]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Urban renewal is expected to create more jobs due to the labor-intensive nature of repair work compared to large construction projects, thus driving employment [12][17]. - The initiative will also consume significant amounts of construction materials, benefiting related industries that have been struggling in recent years [12][13]. - Although the scale of urban renewal may seem small compared to previous housing renovations, its cumulative effect on the economy should not be underestimated as it can lead to substantial economic stimulation over time [14][19]. Group 3: Long-term Benefits - Urban renewal is positioned as a new driver for economic growth, replacing the traditional reliance on real estate for GDP contribution, especially as the real estate sector contracts [17][19]. - The initiative is expected to facilitate the reduction of housing inventory and promote sustainable economic development through stock investment rather than large-scale infrastructure projects [17][19]. - Ultimately, while urban renewal may not create instant wealth for individuals, its long-term benefits for the economy and society are significant, fostering a healthier economic environment for all [19].