房地产及建材行业 房地产-标配（维持） 建材材料-标配（维持） 房地产及建材行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 双 周 SAC 执业证书编号： 申万房地产行业指数走势 房地产周观点：中指院：10月百城二手住宅均价为13268元/平，环比下 跌0.84%，同比下跌7.60%，在高挂牌量及预期偏弱影响下，二手房价格 下行压力仍较大。新建住宅均价为16973元/平，环比上涨0.28%，同比 上涨2.67%。截至10月末，全国商品房销售面积累计同比下跌6.8%，全 国商品住宅销售面积累计同比下跌7%，降幅相比9月末分别扩大1.3个百 分点和扩大1.4个百分点。全国商品房销售金额同比下降9.6%，全国商 品住宅销售金额同比下降9.4%，降幅进一步扩大。从房企三季报业绩来 看，行业整体亏损程度相比二季末进一步扩大。整体来看，行业基本面 仍处于"磨底"阶段。我们认为，未来一段时间，加码政策出台及行业 基本面站稳回升的进程，将主导板块行情走势。中长期来看，行业发展 将从"高杠杆、高周转"转向"品质、服务、可持续"，并以城市更新 释放存量潜力。在行业大洗牌及出清背景下，更看好经营稳健的头部央 国企 ...

Group 1 - The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has seen a significant increase in transaction volume in November, with Guangzhou's signed transactions rising by 22.89% compared to October, totaling 9,191 units [1] - In Guangzhou, most districts experienced notable growth, with Yuexiu District leading at a 74.34% increase, followed by Huangpu District at 32.35%, and other areas showing growth rates above 10% [1] - In Shenzhen, the luxury housing market is gaining attention with new high-end projects entering the market, leading to a 17% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, with luxury properties priced over 15 million accounting for 2.3% of transactions, up 0.6 percentage points from October [1][2] Group 2 - The demand for second-hand housing in Shenzhen remains stable, with November recording 5,386 transactions as of the 27th, marking the ninth consecutive month above 5,000 units, and potentially nearing 6,000 for the month [2] - In the first ten months of the year, the total transaction volume of second-hand housing in 30 key cities increased by 5% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing resilience, particularly Shenzhen with a nearly 20% increase [2] - The second-hand housing market is outperforming new housing due to advantages such as better price-performance ratios, lower transaction costs, and mature supporting facilities, combined with policy benefits [3]

Group 1 - The old factory buildings in the Haidian Science and Technology Park, built in the 1950s, are severely aging and currently idle. The Haidian District government plans to renovate and upgrade them, with completion expected by March 2026 [2] - The planning design scheme for the Shangdi Hospital renovation project has been officially approved, with construction expected to start in early 2026 [6] - The comprehensive renovation project of the old residential area in Majiabao West Village, involving 4,378 households and a total renovation area of nearly 300,000 square meters, is progressing rapidly through refined management and technological innovation [12] Group 2 - The first batch of non-heritage workshops in Beijing has been officially announced, with 25 units recognized, covering 16 districts, marking a significant step in promoting the protection and inheritance of intangible cultural heritage [14][15] - The opening of a new 3.63-kilometer road in the northern area of Shougang Park has improved the infrastructure and transportation network, enhancing accessibility and convenience [21]

每经记者｜淡忠奎 刘旭强 每经编辑｜杨欢 救援还在持续。11月26日下午，香港新界大埔屋邨宏福苑多栋住宅楼发生火灾，最新数据显示，遇难人数已达到128人。 这场火灾有两个"不寻常"引发香港保安局重视，一是有关大厦的外墙物料着火后的蔓延程度较一些合规格物料猛烈，二是未受波及的屋苑大厦玻璃窗贴上一 些发泡胶板，易燃且可能加速火势蔓延。 这也再一次引发外界对香港老旧楼宇更新以及消防安全的讨论。香港多数旧楼宇建于上世纪80年代，不符合现代消防标准，也成为城市安全的重要风险点。 据香港市区重建局统计，香港楼龄超过30年的房屋多达4万栋，楼龄超过50年的房屋也超过了1万栋。 一个不得不面对的现实是，当前香港市区重建的步伐，已远远落后于楼宇老化的速度。这一滞后不但造成了旧楼带来的安全隐患等社会问题，也使得城市更 新的紧迫性空前加剧。 清华大学建筑学院教授、中国新型城镇化研究院院长尹稚对城市进化论表示，"高层建筑到了一定的年限是要做更新维护的，它内部的所有管道、管线，包 括强电、弱电等寿命大概在二三十年，二三十年后各种跑冒滴漏的问题就会出来，无形中会爆发出很多安全相关的隐患。" 如尹稚所说，这次火灾是在宏福苑楼宇正常的维修过 ...

行业正处于新旧模式转型期，土地市场作为上游核心指标有望率先调整到位 智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究发文称，2025年11月，土地成交规模环比回升，同比降幅仍维持在二成。据月末快报数据显示，当月土地成交建筑面 积和金额分别环比增长39%和57%;同比来看，二者分别下降了27%和28%。供地规模进入年末放量周期，截至25日，本月土地供应建筑面积2.9亿平方米， 环比上升250%，同比下降9%。从市场热度来看，本月溢价率稍有回升，但土拍热度仍集中在少数优质地块，如北京朝阳南磨房、上海浦东川沙等，此外 义乌也出现了超高溢价率的优质商办地块。 核心要点 供求：供求规模同比延续缩量。本月供应建筑面积2.9亿平方米，同比下降9%。成交8604万平方米，环比上升39%，同比下降27%。 热度：低位回升。11月平均溢价率为4.1%，环比上升1.29个百分点。土拍热度仍集中在少数城市的少数板块。本月杭州出让的3宗宅地均为底价成交，此 前杭州2025年每个月都至少有2宗宅地溢价成交。 分布：一线同比回升，二、三线延续回落。就成交金额变动来看，一线城市同比增加43%，二线同比回落17%，三四线下跌39%。 后市展望 2025年1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall fundamentals and performance of the building materials sector have shown signs of recovery [2]. - The real estate market is currently under pressure, with significant declines in sales and prices, but there is potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5][26]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on high leverage and turnover to an emphasis on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential [5][26]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 CNY/sqm, down 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year [5][26]. - New residential properties averaged 16,973 CNY/sqm, up 0.28% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year [5][26]. - Cumulative sales area of commercial housing fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 9.6% decline in sales value [5][26]. - The industry is in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy measures to support recovery [5][26]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The cement industry is now included in the national carbon market, with companies over 2.6 million tons of CO₂ equivalent subject to quota management [5][45]. - The overall revenue of the cement industry is under pressure, but profitability is improving, particularly for leading companies [5][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing structural recovery, with supply constraints expected to improve competition in the long term [5][46]. - The building materials sector is currently at historical low valuations, with some stocks offering attractive dividend yields [5][45]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [5][26]. - In the building materials sector, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [5][45]. - For glass fiber, China Jushi (600176) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its recovery in profitability [5][46].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is undergoing a transformation from old to new models, with the land market expected to adjust first as a key upstream indicator [2][7]. Supply and Demand - The supply of land in November 2025 was 290 million square meters, a 250% increase month-on-month but a 9% decrease year-on-year. The transaction area was 86.04 million square meters, up 39% month-on-month but down 27% year-on-year [3][4][10]. - The overall supply and demand scale continues to decline year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the land market [4][10]. Market Heat - The average premium rate in November was 4.1%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the previous month. However, the bidding heat remains concentrated in a few premium areas, with many plots sold at base prices [5][20]. - In November, 9% of land parcels failed to sell, remaining at a near-low level, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [22]. Distribution - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year increase in transaction value by 43%, while second-tier cities decreased by 17%, and third and fourth-tier cities dropped by 39% [6]. Future Outlook - The land market is expected to adjust significantly as it is a leading indicator for the industry. The total land transaction area for 2025 is projected to be only 1.1 times that of new housing transactions, down from 1.8 times in 2020, indicating a shift towards a new inventory reduction cycle [7][10]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized urban renewal, which is expected to provide quality projects and support high-quality urban development, potentially stabilizing the market [8][14]. Key Land Transactions - Notable land transactions in November included a residential plot in Beijing's Chaoyang District sold for 5.024 billion yuan with a premium rate of 18.21%, and a commercial plot in Yiwu with a premium rate of 159% [27][28]. - The highest nominal floor price was recorded for a residential plot in Beijing at 81,120 yuan per square meter, reflecting the premium nature of certain urban areas [31][33].

城市这艘巨轮，最终要驶向何方？是经济指标的攀升，是物理空间的焕新，还是某种更深刻、更温暖的归宿？ 城市，是人类最深刻的集体工程。 "十四五"规划明确提出"实施城市更新行动"，标志着城市发展从 "外延式扩张"向 "内涵式提升"的宏大转型。这一转型，是对城市这一复杂生命体的系统性 重塑，触及经济、社会、文化、治理与环境的每一根神经。 媒体的力量，在于发现、引领与融聚。于2021年创办城市更新IP的智通财经，成立"澎湃城市更新专家顾问团"，每年广邀规划、建筑、经济、社会、文化等 多领域的领军者，共探城市航向的灯塔。 11月27日，"澎湃城市更新专家顾问团授牌仪式（第四批）"在2025澎湃城市更新大会现场举行。中国工程院院士、全国工程勘察设计大师崔愷，普利兹克奖 获得者克里斯蒂安·德·包赞巴克（Christian de Portzamparc），上海市作家协会主席、茅盾文学奖获得者孙甘露受邀担任澎湃城市更新专家顾问，上海报业集 团副社长，智通财经党委书记、董事长杨健为专家顾问代表崔愷院士授牌。 上海报业集团副社长，智通财经党委书记、董事长杨健为专家顾问代表崔愷院士授牌 至此，"澎湃城市更新专家顾问团"已形成10位中国 ...

Core Insights - The event focused on "modular construction technology" as a key method for improving living standards and supporting the construction of quality housing [3][4] - The initiative aims to create a high-end platform for policy interpretation, technical sharing, and resource connection to promote the large-scale application of modular construction technology [3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Modular Construction Technology Exchange and On-site Observation Activity" was successfully held in Beijing, organized by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [1] - The event gathered industry leaders, experts, and representatives from enterprises to discuss the theme of modular construction and its impact on urban renewal and quality housing [3] Group 2: Key Statements - Officials emphasized that modular construction technology is crucial for the green, intelligent, and industrial transformation of the construction industry, significantly reducing the impact on residents' lives [3][4] - The event highlighted the importance of collaboration among policies, technology, and industry chains to transition modular construction from a "technical option" to a "strategic path" [5] Group 3: Practical Applications - The on-site observation included a project in Xicheng District that utilized a concrete modular construction system, showcasing the integration of digital platforms like BIM and MES [5] - This project serves as a reference for promoting modular technology and urban renewal across the country, demonstrating the synergy between industrialization and intelligent construction [5]

Core Viewpoint - The debt restructuring of Ocean Group has made progress, with seven domestic corporate bond restructuring proposals approved by bondholders, involving a total amount of 13.05 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Restructuring Details - Ocean Group's wholly-owned subsidiary, Beijing Ocean Holdings Group Co., Ltd., has seven corporate bonds that will be suspended from trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange starting August 15, 2025, due to the overall operational status of Ocean Holdings [1]. - The restructuring proposals for these corporate bonds have been approved by the bondholders' meeting, and trading will resume on November 27, 2025 [1]. - The restructuring options include cash buyback, stock economic rights, and asset debt repayment options, with specific arrangements to be announced later [1]. Group 2: Financial Overview - Ocean Holdings has been actively working to ensure project delivery and stabilize operations since 2023, achieving positive results but still facing pressure on its asset-liability structure and liquidity [2]. - The total amount involved in the proposed restructuring of ten bonds is 18.05 billion yuan, of which the approved seven bonds account for 13.05 billion yuan [2]. - The company completed a significant overseas debt restructuring in March 2025, reducing its leverage by approximately 4 billion USD and improving its asset-liability structure [5]. Group 3: Business Transformation and Strategy - Ocean Group is seeking transformation by focusing on light asset operations, including development agency, commercial management, and user services, while exploring new business models in real estate [6]. - The company has seen a 124% year-on-year increase in newly developed agency project area in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 7.153 million square meters [7]. - Ocean Group has implemented over 30 million square meters in urban renewal projects over the past two decades, establishing a systematic solution framework [8]. Group 4: Industry Context - The real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in sales for the top 100 real estate companies, necessitating debt restructuring and asset revitalization for survival [9]. - Other companies, such as Sunac and Country Garden, are also progressing with their debt restructuring efforts amid similar industry challenges [9]. - The ongoing market risks and management challenges highlight the need for real estate companies to restore their operational capabilities while ensuring project delivery to rebuild market confidence [10].