Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]

Core Points - The European countries (UK, France, Germany) and the EU are pressuring Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, threatening to activate the "snapback" sanctions process if no substantial progress is made by the end of summer [1][3] - The recent military actions by Israel and the US against Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions and disrupted the fragile balance of the nuclear talks, leading to a significant decline in trust [3][4] - The 2015 nuclear agreement, which aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, has been severely undermined by the US's hardline stance and increasing sanctions [3][4] - The EU's urgency to invoke the "snapback" sanctions is influenced by the upcoming rotation of the UN Security Council presidency to Russia, which may complicate the sanctions restoration process [3][4] - Diplomatic efforts are hindered by the lack of transparency in Iran's nuclear program and the absence of trust between the parties involved, particularly due to the military actions taken by the US and Israel [4][6] - The military actions have provoked Iran, leading to retaliatory strikes against US military bases, further deteriorating the regional security situation [6] - The Western approach, characterized by military pressure, is seen as counterproductive and may exacerbate instability in the Middle East rather than resolve the nuclear issue [6][7] - The division and desperation within the Western camp regarding the nuclear negotiations are evident, as they attempt to regain control over the situation through threats [7][9] - The ongoing nuclear crisis is not merely a technical issue but a focal point of geopolitical competition among global powers, necessitating a shift from coercive tactics to constructive dialogue [9]

Group 1 - The foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany, along with the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, urged Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, warning that if no "substantial progress" is made by the end of summer, all sanctions against Iran will be reinstated [1][3] - This communication marks the first contact between European foreign ministers and Iran following large-scale airstrikes by Israel and the US against Iran in mid-June [1] - The 2015 nuclear agreement, which involved Iran and six world powers, required Iran to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, with the UN Security Council adopting Resolution 2231 to endorse the agreement [1] Group 2 - The UN Security Council Resolution 2231 is set to expire in October 2023, and the European nations aim to complete the "snapback" sanctions process before Russia assumes the presidency of the Security Council [3] - US and European officials view the "snapback" clause as a negotiation tool to pressure Iran, while Iran claims that reinstating sanctions lacks legal basis and threatens to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty [3][4] - Both Iran and the US have expressed willingness to resume negotiations, but Iran demands assurances that it will not face further attacks during the talks [4]

Core Points - The U.S. and its allies have set the end of August as the final deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran [1] - If an agreement is not reached by the deadline, the three European powers plan to activate a "snapback" mechanism to automatically reinstate all sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran deal [1] - The activation of the "snapback" mechanism requires a 30-day process, and Europe aims to complete this before Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council in October [1]

据央视新闻，法国外交部长巴罗表示，若未达成实质性核协议，法英德三国最迟将于8月底启动联合国 对伊朗"快速恢复制裁"机制。近期，英国、法国、德国威胁称将启动针对伊朗的"快速恢复制裁"机制。 所谓"快速恢复制裁"机制，是指伊核协议参与方如果认定伊朗违反协议内容，可快速恢复此前联合国对 伊朗实施的制裁。对此，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表示，在美国单方面退出伊核协议后，欧洲三国也严 重违反了伊核协议承诺，因此没有资格采取相关行动。 ...

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei stated that there is currently no clear timeline for negotiations with the United States regarding the nuclear program [1] - The indirect talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steven Weintraub began on April 12, but after five rounds, no agreement has been reached [1] - Following an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, the negotiations mediated by Oman have stalled, with subsequent military actions between Israel and Iran [1] Group 2 - Baghaei emphasized that Iran takes diplomatic matters and the negotiation process seriously, expressing that Iran participates in negotiations with sincerity despite military aggression from Israel and the US [1] - In response to European countries threatening to activate the "snapback sanctions" mechanism, Baghaei argued that such threats lack legal and political basis, and Iran will respond at an appropriate time [2] - Iran continues to maintain contact with the UK, France, and Germany, but no specific date for the next meeting has been provided [2]

➢ 汽油价差收窄，烯烃价差扩大。截至 6 月 27 日，1）炼油：NYMEX 汽油和 取暖油期货结算价和 WTI 期货结算价差分别为 21.39/28.60 美元/桶，周环比变 化-7.79%/-8.67%。2）化工：乙烯/丙烯/甲苯和石脑油价差为 281/231/160 美 元/吨，较上周变化+50.10%/+97.03%/+86.04%；FDY/POY/DTY 价差为 1544/1344/2519 元/吨，较上周变化+14.55%/+18.12%/+6.61%。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价 2025 年 06 月 29 日 ➢ 以伊官宣停火，原油暂时回归基本面定价。6 月 23 日，特朗普在社交媒体 平台上表示，以色列和伊朗将于 24 日 0 时起停火，6 月 24 日，伊朗最高国家安 全委员会声明，宣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, focusing on the geopolitical implications and the motivations behind Israel's sudden military actions against Iran, particularly in the context of the nuclear agreement negotiations and regional security dynamics [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Recent Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion" against Iran, targeting military officials and nuclear scientists, which led to a series of retaliatory strikes from Iran against Israeli cities [1]. - The conflict has been characterized as one of the most intense confrontations in recent years, with ongoing military actions and a fragile ceasefire being monitored globally [1][2]. Key Motivations for Israel's Actions - Two critical time points are identified: the impending expiration of the Iran nuclear deal in October 2023 and Iran's advancements in uranium enrichment, which prompted Israel to act preemptively [3][4]. - Israel perceives Iran as a significant threat and is concerned about the potential renewal of the nuclear agreement, which they believe could enable Iran to continue its military nuclear ambitions [4][5]. U.S. Involvement and Strategic Considerations - The article highlights the complex position of the U.S. under President Trump, who is attempting to balance domestic priorities with international diplomacy, particularly in the Middle East [5][6]. - The U.S. has shifted its focus away from the Middle East, which raises concerns for Israel about the reliability of American support in the region [8][23]. Regional Reactions and Implications - Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, express a desire for stability in Iran, fearing that a regime change could lead to greater regional instability [20][22]. - The article notes that while Israel seeks to diminish Iran's influence, Gulf countries prioritize economic development and stability over direct confrontation [23][24]. Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict raises questions about the potential for further escalation, with Iran likely to respond aggressively to perceived threats to its nuclear program [25][28]. - The article concludes that achieving absolute security for Israel in the region remains a complex challenge, as the dynamics of power and influence continue to evolve [27][28].

Group 1 - The CIA confirmed that Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged due to recent U.S. attacks, with key facilities reportedly destroyed and requiring years to rebuild [2][3][4] - Israeli military officials stated that the damage to Iran's nuclear program is systemic rather than localized, indicating a significant setback for Iran's nuclear ambitions [4] - Iran's Foreign Ministry acknowledged substantial damage to its nuclear facilities from U.S. airstrikes, emphasizing a determination to continue its nuclear program despite the attacks [5][6] Group 2 - Iran's parliament passed a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reflecting dissatisfaction with recent military actions against its nuclear facilities [7][8] - The cessation of cooperation with the IAEA could lead to Iran's nuclear activities becoming completely opaque, raising concerns about nuclear proliferation in the region [9] - The upcoming expiration of the 2015 nuclear agreement in October raises uncertainties regarding future constraints on Iran's nuclear activities, potentially impacting non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East [9]

据@CCTV国际时讯，当地时间6月21日， 美国总统特朗普在通过社交媒体宣布美国向伊朗核设施发动袭击后又向全国发表讲话称，美国军方对伊朗三个关 键核设施实施了大规模精确打击，目标是摧毁伊朗的核能力并制止其构成的核威胁，目前伊朗关键的铀浓缩设施已被彻底摧毁。 特朗普在讲话中警告伊朗称，伊朗不仅对以色列构成威胁，也对美国构成威胁。如果伊朗不能实现和平，美国可能会攻击更多目标，伊朗要么走向和平，要 么遭遇悲剧，而且悲剧的程度将远超过去8天所见证的。 特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发表全国讲话。 "我要感谢并祝贺比比·内塔尼亚胡总理。我们作为一个团队合作，这可能是以前从未有过的，我们在消除对以色列的可怕威胁方面取得了长足进展。"特朗普 称。 特朗普称，美军参谋长联席会议主席凯恩以及美国国防部长赫格塞思将于美国东部时间6月22日上午8点（北京时间今晚8点）在美国国防部举行新闻发布 会。特朗普并未透露有关袭击的实质性细节。 内塔尼亚胡发表电视讲话， 感谢特朗普 美东时间21日，美军打击伊朗福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施。当地时间22日凌晨，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发表电视讲话，感谢美国总统特朗普袭击 伊朗核设施。 以色列升级全国 ...