上 市 公 司 ——业绩承压但负向边际有限，看好大行稳健股息优势 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.36 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 9.47/6.97 | | 市净率 | 0.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 6.38 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 89,797 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,286.65/9,849.80 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.92 | | 资产负债率% | 92.03 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 250,011/9,594 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/240,417 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 2025 年 04 月 30 日 建设银行 (601939) 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with net profit, pre-provision profit, and operating income showing year-on-year changes of +1.4%, -4.5%, and -1.0% respectively [1] Development Trends - Profit growth has improved, with net profit growth increasing by 0.4 percentage points compared to 2024, primarily due to a decrease in credit costs and a 13.5% year-on-year decline in asset impairment losses [2] - Operating income growth has decreased, with other non-interest income falling by 10.6% year-on-year, a decline of 15.8 percentage points compared to 2024, attributed to increased volatility in bond and equity markets [2] - Net interest income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point compared to 2024, mainly due to significant pressure from interest margin repricing in Q1 [2] - Total assets and credit grew by 7.4% and 8.7% year-on-year respectively, with both metrics showing an increase of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - Key areas of growth include technology finance credit up by 11.3%, energy-saving and carbon-reduction enterprise credit up by 7.5%, inclusive small and micro loans up by 5.9%, and elderly care industry credit up by 13.8% [2] - The company expects the annual growth rate of RMB credit in 2025 to remain consistent with 2024, focusing on key sectors and increasing the proportion of retail credit [2] Asset Quality - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.30% at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [3] - The proportion of special mention loans decreased by 5 basis points to 1.52%, while overdue loans remained stable at 1.38% [3] - The provision coverage ratio is at 200.4%, showing a slight decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - Retail loan non-performing loan ratio increased by 10 basis points to 1.18% compared to the end of last year, with special mention and overdue loan ratios also showing slight increases [3] - The company anticipates that uncertainties in tariff policies may impact credit for enterprises in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and plans to optimize credit structure to support domestic demand industries [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and valuation, with current A-share prices corresponding to 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, and H-share prices also at 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 0.4 times for 2026 [4] - The target price for A-shares remains at 9.72 CNY, corresponding to 0.7 times P/B for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price [4] - The target price for H-shares remains at 7.93 HKD, corresponding to 0.5 times P/B for 2025 and 0.5 times for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 16.4% from the current price [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank [1] Core Views - The report highlights that non-interest income pressure has negatively impacted revenue, while interest income continues to show positive growth. The bank's provisioning advantage remains solid, helping to mitigate profit declines [6][8] - In Q1 2025, China Merchants Bank reported revenue of 83.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.3 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [4][6] - The report emphasizes the bank's ability to manage credit risk effectively, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94% and a provisioning coverage ratio of 410% [4][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 338.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.16% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 149.69 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.88% [5] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance, with net profit growth rates of 0.9%, 3%, and 5.4% for 2025-2027 [9] Revenue Composition - Non-interest income decreased by 10.6% in Q1 2025, significantly impacting overall revenue growth [6][8] - Interest income showed a positive growth of 1.9% in Q1 2025, contributing positively to revenue despite the decline in non-interest income [6][8] Loan Growth and Credit Quality - Total loans increased by 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with corporate loans remaining stable while retail loan growth slowed [6][10] - The report notes a shift in retail lending focus towards lower-risk products, with a significant reduction in credit card lending [6][10] Cost of Deposits and Interest Margin - The bank's net interest margin was reported at 1.91% in Q1 2025, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points [9][11] - Deposit costs decreased significantly, supporting the bank's interest margin stability [9][11]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 亿、-39亿。25Q1末，对公贷款（含贴现）、零售贷款同比增速分别为18.2%、6.1%，增速较上年末分别下降 1.6、3.1pct，贷款投放保持较高强度。 利息收入贡献季环比提升，盈利增速维持高位 杭州银行25Q1营收、拨备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为2.2%、3%、17.3%，较2024年分别下降7.4、 6.5、0.8pct。其中，净利息收入、非息收入同比增速分别为6.8%、-5.4%，较2024年分别变动+2.4、-25.6pct。 拆分盈利同比增速结构，规模扩张、拨备为主要贡献分项，分别拉动业绩增速20、17.4pct；从边际变化看，规 模正贡献小幅下降但仍维持高位，息差负向拖累收窄，对利息收入形成支撑；非息收入由正向拉动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ningbo Bank with a target price of 29.57 CNY, based on the current price of 24.96 CNY [3][8]. Core Insights - Ningbo Bank reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 18.495 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%, and a net profit of 7.417 billion CNY, up 5.76% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% [2][3]. - The bank's net interest income grew by 11.59% to 12.835 billion CNY, although this was a decrease from the 17.3% growth seen in 2024. Non-interest income faced pressure, with net commission income slightly declining by 1.32% to 1.417 billion CNY [7][8]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.40 trillion CNY, an 8.67% increase from the beginning of the year, with loans and advances totaling 1.64 trillion CNY, reflecting an 11.12% growth [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The bank's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 66.631 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.20%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 27.127 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.20% [8]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: By the end of Q1 2025, total deposits reached 21.8 trillion CNY, a significant increase of 18.86% from the start of the year, driven by strong corporate deposit growth [7][8]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio remained low at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 370.54%, indicating stable asset quality [7][8]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 8.3%, and 7.8% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with a target price corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.90X for 2025 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company maintains good growth in performance, with operating income for 2024 and Q1 2025 reaching 12.22 billion and 3.25 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3.0% and 0.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 and Q1 2025 is 5.07 billion and 1.55 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.2% and 6.8% [1] - Non-interest income significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a 27.6% increase in 2024, while Q1 2025 saw a decline in non-interest income growth to 3.3% [1][2] - The net interest margin decline has narrowed, with average net interest margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 at 1.38% and 1.34%, down 30bps and 18bps year-on-year [2] - The company shows strong asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% as of March 2025, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Operating income for 2024 is projected at 12.22 billion, with a growth rate of 3.0% [5] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 5.07 billion, reflecting a 10.2% increase [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.42 billion, 5.96 billion, and 6.59 billion respectively, with growth rates of 6.9%, 10.0%, and 10.7% [4][5] Asset Quality - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio, which decreased to 484% at the end of 2024 and further to 447% by March 2025 [3] - The non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 is 0.60%, which is still below the industry average [3] Market Position - The company benefits from a clear geographical advantage and has shown a gradual stabilization in net interest margins [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.76x for 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.93% [4]

事件: 对公及个人存款在付息率大幅下降的同时保持较高增速，或与公司精进交易银行、巩固养老金融优势等 有关。2025Q1 人民币公司存款同比增长5.0%，付息率为1.51%，同比下降31bps；人民币个人存款同比 增长5.5%，付息率1.90%，同比下降32 bps。公司助力国资国企司库管理体系建设，服务司库客户6507 户，较2024 年末增长5.24%。2025Q1 公司养老金代发获客量同比增长10.30%，截至2025 年一季度末总 规模保持上海地区养老金客户份额第一。 关注类贷款占比下降，拨备覆盖率、拨贷比双增。2025Q1 不良率较上年末持平，仍为1.18%；关注类 贷款占比较上年末下降1bp 至2.05%。拨备覆盖率较上年末提升1.43pct 至271.24%，拨贷比较上年末环 比提升2bps 至3.20%。 盈利预测和投资评级：上海银行负债端成本大幅下行，净息差同比平稳，反映公司交易银行与养老金融 的综合实力。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。我们预测2025-2027 年营收为541、555、570 亿元，同比增 速为2.02%、2.74%、2.63%；归母净利润为244、249、256亿元，同比增速 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 28 日 无锡银行 (600908) ——业绩稳健增长，拨备仍处高位 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.66 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 6.66/4.82 | | 市净率 | 0.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.53 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 11,316 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,295.06/9,917.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.87 | | 资产负债率% | 91.09 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 2,195/1,999 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-25 05-25 06-25 07-25 08-25 09-25 10-25 11-25 12-25 01-25 02-25 03 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Southwest region of China, comprising Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Tibet, is a significant driver of western development, with several listed banks reporting positive growth in assets and operating performance for 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Scale and Growth - Chengdu Bank is the only bank in the region to surpass 1 trillion yuan in total assets, reaching 1.25 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 14.56% [2][3]. - Chongqing Bank follows with total assets of 856.64 billion yuan, growing by 12.73% [3]. - Guizhou Bank's total assets exceeded 580 billion yuan, with the lowest growth rate among the five banks at 2.29% [3]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank have asset scales below 200 billion yuan, with Luzhou Bank at 171 billion yuan and Yibin Bank at 109.21 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Operating Performance - All five banks reported increases in both operating income and net profit for 2024, with Guizhou Bank showing the highest revenue growth at 9.46% [6][7]. - Chengdu Bank led in revenue with 22.977 billion yuan, a 5.88% increase, although its growth rate has been declining in recent years [7]. - Chongqing Bank's revenue was 13.679 billion yuan, up 3.54%, with a notable increase in non-interest income [7][8]. - Luzhou Bank and Yibin Bank had revenues below 5.5 billion yuan, with Yibin Bank's revenue growth slowing significantly [8]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank boasts the lowest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at 0.66%, while Guizhou Bank has the highest at 1.72%, marking the only increase among the banks [10][11]. - The provision coverage ratio for Chengdu Bank is the highest in the region at 479.28%, indicating strong risk management [10][13]. - Luzhou Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 1.19%, while Chongqing Bank's NPL ratio fell to 1.25% [10][11]. - Yibin Bank's NPL ratio slightly decreased to 1.68%, but it still faces significant risks in certain sectors [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company's revenue remains stable, with a notable dividend advantage, reflected in a dividend yield of 7.32% [2][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 7.4% year-on-year, attributed to high base effects from asset disposals in the previous year, while net profit growth remained modest at 0.3% [5][7]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.97% and a provision coverage ratio of approximately 339% [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 66 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 36 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year [5][7]. - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26,641.34 million yuan, with a slight growth of 0.86% compared to 2023 [6]. - The forecast for net profit growth is adjusted to 0.9% for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 4.2% for 2027 [10][12]. Dividend and Capital Position - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 33.9%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a strong dividend policy supported by sufficient capital [7][10]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stands at 14.36%, suggesting a robust capital position to support future growth and dividends [10][12]. Loan Growth and Quality - Loan growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in total loans as of the first quarter of 2025 [11][12]. - The bank's focus on corporate loans, particularly in technology and green sectors, has contributed significantly to new loan growth [7][11].