2025 年 04 月 29 日 中国核电 (601985) ——Q1 盈利保持正增长 再获批新项目保障成长 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | | --- | | 买入（维持） | | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 9.39 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 12.29/8.66 | | 市净率 | 2.0 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 2.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 177,314 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 上 市 公 司 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 5.48 | | 资产负债率% | | 68.48 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 20,568/18,883 | | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 公用事业 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 9.598 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 18.63% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.283 billion yuan, up 86.26% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.465 billion yuan due to underperformance in thermal power [1][2] Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company's revenue decreased by 8.70% year-on-year to 1.945 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 543 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37%, but still below the expected range of 573-653 million yuan due to lower-than-expected power generation [1][2] - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.205 yuan (tax included) for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.77%, fulfilling its commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% for the year [1] Power Generation Breakdown - In 2024, the company's total power generation increased by 27.77% year-on-year to 36.424 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by a 44.94% increase in hydropower generation to 30.583 billion kilowatt-hours due to water recovery [2] - The company added 874,700 kilowatts of new energy capacity in 2024, with solar power accounting for 91% of the new installations, resulting in a 104.17% year-on-year increase in solar power generation [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates further improvement in hydropower utilization hours in 2025, as the average utilization hours for hydropower in 2024 were only 90% of the average from 2017-2023 [1] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 7.79 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-26 due to significant pressure on thermal power trading prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for Huaneng International (600011) [1][8] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20% year-on-year in 2024, primarily due to significant improvement in coal power performance and a reduction in asset impairment losses [4][5] - The report highlights that the coal price decline has positively impacted coal power performance, with a total profit of 7.14 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an increase of 1.8 fen/kWh year-on-year [5] - The company plans to invest 69.4 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, with a focus on renewable energy, indicating a strategic shift towards sustainable energy sources [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 245.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.14 billion yuan, an increase of 20% [4][5] - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 61.16 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year, and a net loss of 0.28 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 4.12 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company plans to increase its renewable energy capacity by 9.4 GW in 2024, with 2.6 GW from wind power and 6.8 GW from solar power [5] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 236.5 billion yuan, 239.2 billion yuan, and 243.2 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 11.3 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 12.1 billion yuan [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are all estimated at 9 times [5][7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the renewable energy sector, focusing on wind and solar power, particularly in China. Key Points and Arguments Wind Power vs. Solar Power - Wind power's investment return is projected to decrease by 1 to 1.5 percentage points, currently around 8%, while solar power is expected to drop by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, now at approximately 6.5% to 7% [3][6][10]. - The ability of wind power to participate in the electricity market is significantly stronger than that of solar power due to its consistent output across different times of the day [1][3]. Project Economics - The economic viability of offshore wind power is considered better than onshore wind power in certain regions, particularly in areas with higher wind speeds and utilization hours [4][10]. - The average investment return for onshore wind projects is estimated at around 8.1% for 2024, while offshore wind projects are expected to stabilize around 7% [9][10]. Regional Analysis - Northeast and North China regions are highlighted for their potential in renewable energy utilization, with some areas achieving utilization hours between 2000 to 2600 hours [8][9]. - The economic conditions and electricity pricing in coastal provinces are expected to provide protective measures for offshore wind power pricing [3][10]. Policy Impact - The introduction of new policies is anticipated to impact project returns negatively, with expectations of a decline in overall market share for the five major energy groups from 10% to 7% [11][12]. - The government aims for an annual increase of around 200 million watts in installed capacity, which aligns with the current investment capabilities of power generation companies [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The market is expected to undergo a consolidation process, with smaller companies likely to exit, benefiting larger firms [12][13]. - The conference notes a significant decline in the market share of major players, indicating a shift towards smaller enterprises participating in the renewable energy sector [12][13]. Future Projections - The years 2026 and 2027 are projected to be critical, with expectations of a significant drop in installed capacity due to new policies and market conditions [24][25]. - The anticipated growth in offshore wind projects is contingent on successful project approvals and market conditions, with a focus on large-scale projects in coastal areas [26][30]. Storage and Technology - The discussion includes the role of energy storage in the renewable sector, with expectations that storage installations will not decline despite market fluctuations [19][20]. - The need for a balance between renewable energy generation and storage capabilities is emphasized, particularly in light of new market entry policies [20][21]. Conclusion - The renewable energy sector is facing challenges due to policy changes and market dynamics, but there are opportunities for growth in specific regions and technologies. The focus remains on optimizing project economics and navigating the evolving regulatory landscape to ensure sustainable development in the industry.