Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents structural opportunities driven by valuation recovery and policy benefits, with cash flow value becoming the core logic of asset pricing [1]. Group 1: Stock Market Insights - A-shares experienced a rapid rebound after a brief decline in early April, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, indicating improved market sentiment and rising risk appetite [1]. - Global stock markets, including the US and Europe, have also shown a V-shaped recovery, supported by a long-term favorable environment due to global interest rate cuts [1]. - The stock investment opportunities are categorized into three types: 1. Stocks with absolute cash flow value, such as high-dividend and strong free cash flow companies, which are solid in fundamentals and provide stable cash flow [2]. 2. Broad consumption sectors, including automotive and electronics, benefiting from policies like "trade-in" programs, with mature business models that can quickly translate policy benefits into financial performance [2]. 3. High-growth potential sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and the silver economy, which, despite limited short-term profitability, possess long-term growth potential and valuation elasticity [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has also shown a V-shaped trend, with credit bonds performing strongly and credit spreads remaining at historical lows [1]. - Chinese government bonds exhibit greater stability due to ample monetary policy space and low inflation expectations, making them standout performers in the international fixed income market [1]. - A differentiated strategy for bond allocation is recommended, with a focus on long-term holdings of 10-year government bonds for stable returns and effective hedging against equity volatility [3]. - Credit bonds are viewed as having high valuations due to low spreads, suggesting a neutral allocation approach, favoring a combination of "interest rate bonds + stocks" over pure credit bond exposure for better risk-return profiles [3]. Group 3: Currency and Overall Strategy - The current exchange rate environment is favorable for allocation decisions, with expectations of a stable RMB exchange rate over the next 12 months and potential mild appreciation in the long term as China's trade position strengthens [3]. - A recommended investment portfolio structure includes stocks as the core asset, interest rate bonds as stabilizers, and neutral allocation to credit bonds, aiming to capture valuation recovery opportunities while effectively controlling portfolio volatility [3].

Group 1: Dividend Performance Analysis - Historically, the China Securities Dividend Index significantly underperformed in June and October since 2010, with excess return rates against the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market around 33%[16] - In June 2015 and 2018, dividends showed excess returns relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market, benefiting from high volatility environments[8] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index, with monthly winning rates of 30% in January and October, which are the lowest for the year[27] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Industry Performance - The months of March to May and August to December are favorable periods for the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index to outperform the CSI 300 and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index[28] - Most industries, except for consumer sectors like automobiles and home appliances, showed no excess returns in June and October since 2010, with utilities performing relatively better in June[22] - The banking and transportation sectors, along with high-weight industries like construction materials and real estate, experienced significant drawdowns in June[22] Group 3: Reasons for Seasonal Effects - The low winning rates for dividends in June and October are linked to the completion of annual and semi-annual reports, leading to a rise in market risk appetite post-reporting periods[30] - The phenomenon of "抢权行情" (right grabbing market) occurs around the ex-dividend dates, where stock prices may decline post-ex-dividend due to preemptive buying behavior[31] - The market's risk appetite tends to recover after the financial reporting periods, which negatively impacts the overall performance of dividend stocks[40]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 9.598 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 18.63% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.283 billion yuan, up 86.26% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.465 billion yuan due to underperformance in thermal power [1][2] Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company's revenue decreased by 8.70% year-on-year to 1.945 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 543 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37%, but still below the expected range of 573-653 million yuan due to lower-than-expected power generation [1][2] - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.205 yuan (tax included) for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.77%, fulfilling its commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% for the year [1] Power Generation Breakdown - In 2024, the company's total power generation increased by 27.77% year-on-year to 36.424 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by a 44.94% increase in hydropower generation to 30.583 billion kilowatt-hours due to water recovery [2] - The company added 874,700 kilowatts of new energy capacity in 2024, with solar power accounting for 91% of the new installations, resulting in a 104.17% year-on-year increase in solar power generation [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates further improvement in hydropower utilization hours in 2025, as the average utilization hours for hydropower in 2024 were only 90% of the average from 2017-2023 [1] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 7.79 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-26 due to significant pressure on thermal power trading prices [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance shows steady growth, with overseas equipment orders continuing to break through [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 5,991 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.59%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,168 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.20% [7] - The report highlights that the company's solid waste operations are growing steadily, and operational efficiency remains leading in the industry [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - Total revenue for 2023 is 6,027 million yuan, with a forecast of 5,991 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 6,577 million yuan in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1,168 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 1,264 million yuan in 2025 [1] - Profitability Metrics: - The gross profit margin for 2024 is 33.18%, an increase of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 20.42%, up by 0.24 percentage points [7] - Cash Flow and Dividends: - The company reported a free cash flow of 14,910 million yuan in 2024, a significant increase of 160.65% [7] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 35.07%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [7] Operational Highlights - Solid Waste Operations: - The company’s solid waste operation revenue reached 38,400 million yuan in 2024, with a growth of 5.29% [7] - The total waste processing volume for fully owned and controlled projects was 15.08 million tons, an increase of 7.42% [7] - Equipment Sales: - Engineering construction revenue decreased to 19,180 million yuan in 2024, down by 13.93% [7] - The company signed contracts for overseas equipment sales totaling over 800 million yuan [7] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the company's solid waste operations and accelerated overseas equipment sales are expected to enhance cash flow value, which is currently underestimated [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted to 12,640 million yuan for 2025 and 13,500 million yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 14,230 million yuan for 2027 [7]