Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - Although the supply of new cotton is tight before it comes onto the market, the downstream demand remains weak, the weather-related factors have subsided, and the market has expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract closed lower and is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short on rallies and control risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,650 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 19,770 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -26,047 lots, down 3,301 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was -36 lots, up 141 lots - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 349,549 lots, down 26,389 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 4,525 lots, down 859 lots - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,940 sheets, down 115 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B was 15,325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 20,680 yuan/ton, unchanged - The China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with 1% tariff was 13,581 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index FCIndexM with sliding duty was 14,337 yuan/ton - The arrival price of imported pure cotton combed 32-count yarn was 24,047 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure cotton carded 32-count yarn was 22,082 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons - The cotton-yarn price difference was 5,355 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton was 1,110 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.8298 million tons, down 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days were 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for cotton was 12.44%, down 0.95% - The 20-day historical volatility of cotton was 10.55%, up 0.92%; the 60-day historical volatility of cotton was 9.15%, up 0.44% [2] Industry News - As of July 30, 2024, 24:00, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises was 30,127,638 bales, totaling 6.803087 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.432548 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.22% [2] International Situation - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.24% on Wednesday. Affected by the decline in the grain market, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the extension of Sino-US tariff measures, the price of US cotton futures continued to decline. The Sino-US talks in Stockholm ended, and the relevant Chinese officials said that according to the consensus of the new round of Sino-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to extend the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. The tariffs of the two countries have not changed, and no final trade agreement has been reached [2] Domestic Situation - Cotton is in a de-stocking state, and there is no news about quotas. The supply is tight before the new cotton is listed. On the demand side, the textile industry is in the off-season, and inland textile enterprises have no profit. The overall operating rate continues to decline, and due to the recent rise in raw material prices, enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials. In terms of new crops, the overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025. The temperature in Xinjiang decreased later this week, and the weather-related factors cooled down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the supply of cotton is tight before the new cotton is on the market, the downstream demand remains weak, the weather - related factors have cooled down, and the market has expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract will continue its weak trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract is 13,755 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 19,870 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 22,746 lots, an increase of 4,260 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 177 lots, an increase of 87 lots - The position of the main contract of cotton is 375,938 lots, a decrease of 37,724 lots; the position of the main contract of cotton yarn is 5,384 lots, a decrease of 2,257 lots - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 9,055 sheets, a decrease of 101 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 91 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,470 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,616 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,033 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty) is 14,360 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count fine - combed cotton yarn is 23,994 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons - The cotton - cotton yarn price difference is 5,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons - The daily profit from importing cotton is 1,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days - The monthly output of cloth is 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 13.39%, a decrease of 2.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 13.39%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.63%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.71%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] 3.7. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.3056 million tons, a decrease of 0.1519 million tons (a decrease of 6.18%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is 1.5433 million tons, a decrease of 0.1298 million tons (a decrease of 7.76%) from the previous week; the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area is 0.409 million tons, a decrease of 0.0101 million tons (a decrease of 2.41%) from the previous week - On Tuesday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed down 0.94%. The cotton 2509 contract fell 1.89%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract closed down 1.34% - Internationally, affected by the decline in the grain market, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the extension of Sino - US tariff measures, the price of US cotton futures has been continuously falling. The Sino - US talks in Stockholm, Sweden have ended. After the talks, relevant Chinese officials said that according to the consensus of the new round of Sino - US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that have been suspended and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Currently, there is no change in the tariffs between the two countries, and no final trade agreement has been reached [2] 3.8. Domestic Situation - Cotton is in the process of destocking, and there is no news about quotas. The supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. On the demand side, the textile industry is in the off - season of consumption. Inland textile enterprises have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and due to the recent rise in raw material prices, enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials - In terms of new crops, the overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025. The temperature in Xinjiang decreased slightly later this week, and the weather - related factors have cooled down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market. The demand side shows characteristics of the off - season in the textile industry, with low profitability and a decreasing operating rate of spinning enterprises. The new cotton planting area has increased, but there are high - temperature risks in some areas of Xinjiang. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, demand is weak, and the upward momentum of the market is gradually weakening. The cotton 2509 contract has recently declined, showing an adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,995 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 27,006 hands, an increase of 6,225 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 264 hands, an increase of 293 hands. - The main contract positions of cotton were 413,662 hands, a decrease of 55,334 hands; those of cotton yarn were 7,641 hands, a decrease of 1,770 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,156 sheets, a decrease of 70 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 91 sheets, unchanged. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,721 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,430 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,994 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,179 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 16.15%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 16.14%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.65%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% the previous week and 49% the same period last year. - On Monday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.1%, the cotton 2509 contract fell 1.87%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 1.91%. [2]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-07-28 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，棉花2509合约近期回落，呈现调整行情，不过供应偏紧提供较强支撑，预计回调空间受限，重点关注天 免责声明 气和贸易关系因素。操作上建议暂时观望。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14075 | -95 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20235 | -135 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -33231 | 6505 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -557 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, tight supply and high - temperature risks for new crops support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream off - season restricts the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips and pay continuous attention to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,423 hands, down 7,742 hands; main contract cotton positions are 559,478 hands, down 21,295 hands; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,501 sheets, down 31 sheets. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 114 hands, down 244 hands; the main contract cotton yarn positions are 17,223 hands, down 1,835 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 sheets, down 1 sheet [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,589 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,792 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,740 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,115 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,993 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,232 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 817 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 50 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 197.1179 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.38%, down 0.8%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.37%, down 0.81%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.17%, down 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.16%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline, with a total of 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons (a decrease of 5.71%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.6731 million tons, a decrease of 124,700 tons (a decrease of 6.94%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 419,100 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (a decrease of 2.13%) from the previous week. Internationally, the good - growth rate of US cotton has been adjusted upwards, the weather forecast shows high temperatures, the export data is average, and there are mixed long and short factors such as trade - relation expectations, resulting in an oscillatory operation of US cotton [2]. 3.8 Core View - Currently, tight supply and new crops facing high - temperature weather support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream is in the off - season, restricting the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. The mainstream spinning mills' operating load as of July 17 was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous period. In Xinjiang, some areas have high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage. Technically, the moving averages of the main contract system show a bullish arrangement. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of cotton is expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations. The market is supported by the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions, but is dragged by the off - season consumption in the downstream. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,120 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 17,706 lots, down 2,643 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 105 lots, up 76 lots. - Cotton main contract position is 557,732 lots, up 2,175 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 22,210 lots, down 395 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,807 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B) is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) is 13,597 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,353 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,095 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,887 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,225 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 913 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1971179 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.0052109 billion US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.25%, up 0.8%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.24%, up 0.79%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.97%, down 0.13%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.58%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton output in the US for the 2025/26 season is 14.6 million bales, up from 14 million bales in June, and the ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, up from 4.3 million bales in June. The report has a slightly bearish impact. [2] 3.8 View Summary - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas is 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is in a state of destocking, but the off - season consumption slows down the destocking speed. The overall trend is slightly bullish with oscillations. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored. The textile industry shows off - season consumption characteristics, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,955 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 23,095 lots, an increase of 4,152 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures are - 93 lots, an increase of 222 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main cotton futures contract is 543,865 lots, a decrease of 2,264 lots; the open interest of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 23,566 lots, an increase of 694 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,039 sheets, a decrease of 28 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Cotton Price Index**: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,201 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Yarn Price Index**: The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 23,703 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Planting and Production**: The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. - **Price Spread and Inventory**: The cotton - yarn price spread is 5,219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 850 thousand tons, an increase of 24 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of cotton is 40 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons [2]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The daily profit of imported cotton is 753 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the monthly commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 thousand tons, a decrease of 69.39 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Inventory Days**: The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of cloth is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 195.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 3.6 thousand tons [2]. - **Export Volume**: The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, an increase of 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, an increase of 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.95%, a decrease of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.87%, a decrease of 1.73% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Domestic Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China is 2.7476 million tons, a decrease of 132.3 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang is 1.9128 million tons, a decrease of 117.1 thousand tons (a decrease of 5.77%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton inventory in the inland area is 435.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.5 thousand tons (a decrease of 0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - **US Export**: For the week ending June 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year is 23,700 bales, a decrease of 13% from the previous week and a decrease of 66% from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the next market year is 106,600 bales. The US cotton export shipments are 255,800 bales, an increase of 39% from the previous week and an increase of 9% from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and some spinning enterprises in a state of inventory accumulation and poor profitability, which affects raw material procurement willingness [2]. - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the off - season. The market is generally oscillating slightly stronger, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,805 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 30,048 lots, a decrease of 2,088 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 269 lots, a decrease of 59 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 560,465 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,405 lots, an increase of 382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,190, a decrease of 21; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,163 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, down 221 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,925 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,409 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,714 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,257 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.37%, a decrease of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.8%, a decrease of 0.02% [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, compared with 47% the previous week and 50% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market forecast of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-30 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 但是消费淡季导致去库存速度缓慢，整体震荡略偏强，持续关注天气和宏观因素。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13740 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19990 | -115 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -33777 | 2608 棉纱期货前20名净持仓( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's growth report shows that as of the week ending June 22, 2025, the U.S. cotton good-to-excellent rate was 47%, down from 48% the previous week and 56% in the same period over the past three years. The decline in the good-to-excellent rate, unfavorable weather in the production areas in the coming days, and the spill - over effect of the rebound in crude oil prices have boosted the U.S. cotton futures market [2]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises have poor performance in new orders, with limited overall growth in summer orders. Orders are mostly short - term and small, and some enterprises have reduced shifts and lowered the overall operating rate. Some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement. The old - crop fundamentals change little, and short - term prices are volatile. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to the impact of the new - season cotton growth on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 38,534 lots, up 1,087 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 161 lots, down 97 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract open interest: 584,196 lots, up 24,084 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 21,614 lots, down 306 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 10,334 lots, down 45 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 lots, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,726 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,436 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 21,924 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,713 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,360 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 826,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 563 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.36%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.35% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 6.47%, down 0.24%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 12.78%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of June 25, 2024, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2024/25 season was 30,121,873 bales, totaling 6.801796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.43177 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.21% [2].