Group 1 - The stock of COFCO Joycome (01610) increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 1.95 with a trading volume of HKD 49.1153 million [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, plans to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 companies including COFCO [1] - CICC previously indicated that the company is improving efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming, returning to a healthy growth trajectory [1] Group 2 - The company is implementing comprehensive cost reduction measures involving all factors, segments, and personnel, which may enhance cost competitiveness [1] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's liquid biological assets amounted to CNY 2.79 billion, an increase of 16.9% compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The company is also exploring a light-asset breeding model, which is expected to support an output of 5 to 6 million pigs in 2025 [1]

摘要 生猪市场供需形势与价格展望 20250910 2025 年猪价预计不会明显上涨，因能繁母猪存栏量维持高位，新生仔 猪数量持续增长，供应趋势惯性增长，疫情影响较小。 产能调控措施如降体重、限二育等短期内压制猪价，牧原等头部企业体 重下降明显，但长期效果需持续观察。 8 月份猪价不及预期引发市场恐慌，养殖场户急于出栏，进一步压制价 格，短期内生猪价格难以明显上涨。 当前生猪行业产能调控效果不理想，母猪存栏量维持高位，未来供应可 能继续保持高水平甚至增长。 生猪价格对不同养殖主体影响差异大，头部企业仍有盈利，中小养殖户 面临亏损，可能被迫减少产能。 头部企业在产能调控中作用关键，但多数企业去产能动作不明显，需更 强有力的政策干预。 未来政策可能采取更明确的减产目标和信贷约束等措施，以实现 3,900 万正常保有量目标，平衡市场供应。 Q&A 当前生猪市场的供需情况如何，为什么猪价表现不及预期？ 当前生猪市场的供需情况总体上与预期差异不大。许多人对 8 月份前后的所谓 断档期抱有一定希望，但实际上 2025 年并不存在断档期。农业农村部的数据 表明，能繁母猪存栏量在去年下半年增加后，今年以来保持高位水平，新生仔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork price is experiencing a downward trend, reaching new lows, with concerns about potentially falling below 13 yuan/kg. However, there is a belief that prices may stabilize by the end of September if the market can withstand the mid-month pressures [2]. Group 1: Supply Risks - The official target is to reduce the breeding pig capacity to below 39 million heads by the end of the year, while the breeding sow capacity was still at 40.42 million heads as of the end of July, indicating a tight timeline for adjustments [4]. - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly after previous capacity reductions, making the actions of leading companies more impactful on the market. Typically, there is a tightening of supply at the beginning and end of the month, with increased supply expected mid-month, leading to potential price declines [5]. - There is a risk of supply pressure due to the ongoing production capacity adjustments and the need to manage the market effectively [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Although there has been a slight improvement in pork consumption with the cooling weather, it is still far from the expected peak consumption season, indicating that demand has not significantly rebounded [6]. - The increase in supply from large enterprises, coupled with sluggish demand, poses a significant challenge for small and medium-sized farmers, potentially pushing some out of the market [6]. - The upcoming double festival at the end of the month is expected to provide a temporary boost to market consumption, which may influence market sentiment positively [6]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The pace of reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter is slowing down, which means that the market supply of pork may decrease, alleviating some supply pressure [8]. - There has been a rise in secondary fattening practices, which, despite official controls, are expected to increase as the consumption season approaches, further tightening the supply pressure [9]. - With a reduction in supply and an anticipated increase in demand, there is a possibility for pork prices to stabilize or even see a slight increase, especially as the peak consumption season approaches in October [11].

公开资料显示，正大企业国际是正大集团子公司，为全球领先的金霉素生产商之一。公司中期业绩显 示，收入约3.23亿美元，同比增长199.44%；公司股东应占溢利1704.6万美元，同比增长768.36%。纯利 增长主要得益于集团生化业务的显著增长，公司生化业务专注于动保化药产品及金霉素。华鑫证券此前 在研报中指出，放眼全球兽用金霉素市场，中国的金河生物（002688）和正大生物共计产能全球占比超 90%，呈现双寡头垄断的竞争格局。 消息面上，据智通财经报道记者从多个信源获悉，为贯彻今年中央一号文件要求，推动生猪产能调控措 施落实落地，农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发展和改革委员会价格司拟于9月16日在北京召开生猪产 能调控企业座谈会。报道指，会议邀请牧原、温氏等25家头部企业参会。据悉，牧原集团近日与正大集 团签订战略合作协议。 正大企业国际(03839)昨日收涨逾15%，今日高见8.87港元，再创历史新高。截至发稿，涨21.49%，报 8.82港元，成交额1979.6万港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，正大企业国际(03839)昨日收涨逾15%，今日高见8.87港元，再创历史新高。截至发 稿，涨21.49%，报8.82港元，成交额1979.6万港元。 公开资料显示，正大企业国际是正大集团子公司，为全球领先的金霉素生产商之一。公司中期业绩显 示，收入约3.23亿美元，同比增长199.44%；公司股东应占溢利1704.6万美元，同比增长768.36%。纯利 增长主要得益于集团生化业务的显著增长，公司生化业务专注于动保化药产品及金霉素。华鑫证券此前 在研报中指出，放眼全球兽用金霉素市场，中国的金河生物和正大生物共计产能全球占比超 90%，呈 现双寡头垄断的竞争格局。 消息面上，据智通财经报道记者从多个信源获悉，为贯彻今年中央一号文件要求，推动生猪产能调控措 施落实落地，农业农村部畜牧兽医局会同国家发展和改革委员会价格司拟于9月16日在北京召开生猪产 能调控企业座谈会。报道指，会议邀请牧原、温氏等25家头部企业参会。据悉，牧原集团近日与正大集 团签订战略合作协议。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming sector is experiencing a strong performance, with a focus on the upcoming meeting to discuss production capacity regulation among major companies [1][2] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a meeting on September 16 to analyze the current pig production situation and discuss capacity regulation measures with 25 participating companies [1] - Major companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope are expected to share their experiences and strategies regarding capacity control during the meeting [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities states that after a period of adjustment, the valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading companies still achieving good profitability [2] - The industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom of the economic cycle, with a potential for supply-side contraction leading to improved profitability for top-tier companies [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the livestock farming index tracked by the breeding ETF is 14.11 times, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past three years [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming meeting on September 16 in Beijing, organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission, to discuss pig production capacity regulation measures [1] - The meeting will include 25 companies such as Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope, focusing on analyzing the current pig production situation and sharing measures and results related to capacity regulation [1] - The agenda includes studying and deploying pig production capacity regulation work for the second half of this year and next year [1]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that as of July, the number of breeding sows in China decreased to 40.42 million heads, a decline of 10,000 heads month-on-month, while the number of sows eliminated increased by 2.1% [5][16] - The report emphasizes the need for strict implementation of production capacity control measures, including reasonable elimination of breeding sows and reduction of breeding sow inventory [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on high-quality breeding companies with significant cost advantages and high slaughter realization rates, specifically mentioning Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][12] Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Breeding Sow Inventory in July - The breeding sow inventory in July showed a month-on-month decrease, with a total of 40.42 million heads reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [5][16] - The average profit per pig sold in 2025 has been 108 yuan, with continuous profitability in the pig farming sector for 15 months [5][9] 2. Future Pig Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - The report anticipates that pig prices will face downward pressure in 2025 due to an increase in supply, with a projected weak overall price trend [24][25] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue to decrease, with a significant drop in net profit per pig to 21 yuan in July 2025, a 96.1% year-on-year decline [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in low-cost pig farming enterprises, highlighting the expected growth in pig output until at least September 2025, despite anticipated pressure on prices [26][12] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, along with companies in the animal health and feed sectors like Haida Group [12][26]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Pig Industry Association has issued a letter advocating for proactive capacity reduction in the pig farming industry to address the oversupply pressure and ensure the long-term healthy development of the industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Industry Situation - The pig farming industry is facing new challenges, with capacity regulation becoming urgent. As of the end of June, the national pig inventory was 424 million heads, with breeding sows at 40.43 million heads, which is 103.7% of the normal holding level, nearing the upper limit of the capacity regulation green zone [10][11][12]. Group 2: Industry Meeting and Discussions - On August 28, a meeting was held by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, involving major pig farming enterprises, slaughter enterprises, and experts from research institutions to discuss strengthening capacity regulation and promoting high-quality industry development [13][14][15]. Group 3: Key Proposals from the Association - The association proposed targeted initiatives focusing on five areas: capacity regulation, safety production, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, green farming, and brand building [17][18]. - The association called for all farming enterprises to actively implement capacity regulation policies, gradually reduce breeding sow inventory, avoid secondary fattening, and rationally control slaughter weight to prevent blind expansion [19][20]. Group 4: Safety and Efficiency Measures - Emphasizing safety production, the association highlighted the importance of maintaining strict management to prevent major diseases like African swine fever, especially during market fluctuations [22][24]. - The association encouraged the adoption of technological innovations and new techniques such as IoT and low-protein diets to lower production costs and enhance efficiency through digital and green transformations [26][27][28]. Group 5: Environmental and Brand Development - The association stressed the need to uphold environmental standards, invest in waste resource utilization facilities, and promote sustainable practices like crop-livestock integration [33][34]. - It called for the industry to focus on quality improvement and participate in brand-building initiatives to enhance product value and strengthen the Guangdong pig industry's reputation [35][36][37]. Group 6: Social Responsibility and Future Outlook - Capacity regulation is not only essential for the industry's healthy development but also a social responsibility that each farming enterprise should undertake. The release of this initiative aims to clarify directions for enterprises and foster a consensus on "high-quality development" [38][39].

一是月底月初集团缩量出栏，导致生猪供应压力暂时缓解。 而且随着之前大猪集中出栏结束后，目前市场大猪供应压力下降，对市场冲击减轻。 8月结束，猪价踉跄收官，从月初的14.2元/公斤跌到月末的13.75元/公斤，跌幅达3.2%。 正当市场一片悲声的时候，9月猪价又迎来了开门红，而且相比之前的小打小闹，涨幅明显增大。 9月1日，外三元生猪均价涨至13.87元/公斤，甚至有机构预计，如果涨势能维持住，不排除猪价可能会重新"入7"。 七八月最有可能上涨的月份都失败了，为啥9月的猪突然就发飙了呢？ 主要是两个因素： 根据最新调控要求，到8月末，全国能繁母猪调减50万头，而到2025年末生猪产能降到3900万头以下，而截至7月末，全国能繁母猪存栏数量为4042万头，也 就是说，距离年底的调控目标还有100多万头的差距，这个压力还是很大的。 二是需求抬头。 另一方面，受开学季、升学宴等影响，下游市场猪肉消费增加，屠企开工率提升。 再加上9月后又将迎来中秋、国庆等节日利好，所以消费预期整体是有所增加的。 于是，9月看涨的积极性就大增。 这也印证了我们之前的分析，虽然产能去化的压力比较大，但是经过前一轮惨烈的去产能后，生猪养殖集 ...