智通财经APP获悉，利嘉阁地产总裁廖伟强表示，对下半年香港楼市继续乐观，一、二手私宅合计买卖 登记料增至3万宗，当中包括受惠东升西降，资金流入香港及预期进一步减息，带动置业及投资需求。 面对上半年关税战，但香港本地楼市总体交投量不跌反升，只是楼价仍较受压，但月环比有所缓和。廖 伟强对下半年住宅市道感乐观，有信心可实现量价齐升。 廖伟强预期，下半年在各项利好因素持续发酵下，香港中小型住宅楼价料涨3-5%；豪宅楼价也看升 2%，全年料平稳微升。租金表现方面，在新增人才及内地和海外留学生进驻下，预期下半年中小型住 宅租金料提速再涨3%，即全年料升逾 5%；而豪宅租金下半年也看升2%，全年料涨约3.5%。 在二手市场方面，相信在下半年经济持续好转，股市及零售消费市道都向好及进一步的减息预期，也能 带动二手交投造好，料下半年二手私宅登记量将较上半年的1.8万宗再升11%，至2万宗水平；全年累 计，二手买卖料录3.8万宗水平，将较2024年约3.22万宗增加 18%。综合预计，在下半年一、二手齐步 向好下，香港整体私宅登记量料升12%，最终料达3万宗水平。 利嘉阁地产董事胡栢荣指出，2025年上半年，香港楼市呈"量升价跌 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of the year, but key factors are beginning to turn around [1] - A rebound in population and a significant drop in interest rates, including HIBOR, are expected to restore market confidence, with property prices projected to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and by 5% in both 2026 and 2027 [1] - The decline in HIBOR directly reduces mortgage rates, alleviating payment pressure and providing a good opportunity for first-time buyers and motivating upgrade purchases in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Residential Rental Market - The trend of divergence in residential prices and rental markets has continued into 2023, driven by population inflow and government talent introduction plans, which will increase housing demand and push short-term rental growth [1] - Rental prices are expected to rise by approximately 2% to 3% this year, with areas close to major business districts and key universities projected to see rental increases of at least 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Retail Market - Despite changes in tourist consumption habits and average spending levels, an increase in tourist numbers and a slowdown in consumption trends from mainland China are expected to benefit the dining and grocery sectors [2] - High-end shopping centers and core shopping areas are anticipated to remain stable through 2025, although non-tourist and core retail areas may face more significant pressure due to e-commerce challenges [2] Group 4: Office Market - The office market remains cautious, with vacancy rates slightly decreasing from a high of 13.7% in July 2024 to 13.5% in March 2025, but still at elevated levels [2] - Major projects set to complete between 2025 and 2026 will limit the rebound potential of the office market, with Grade A office rents expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year until economic conditions improve [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market showed strong trading activity in March, leading to an increase in new mortgage approvals in April, reaching an 11-month high [1] - Major developers are launching properties at lower prices, attracting first-time buyers and investors, which is contributing to a favorable sales environment [1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable, with a gradual increase in residential mortgage numbers anticipated [1] Mortgage Statistics - In April 2025, the number of new mortgage applications was 7,795, a decrease of 661 applications (7.8%) from March's 8,456 [1] - The total amount of new mortgages approved in April was HKD 25.258 billion, an increase of HKD 5.86 billion (2.4%) from March's HKD 24.672 billion [1] - The number of new mortgages approved in April was 5,719, up by 358 (6.7%) from March's 5,361, marking the highest number in 11 months [1] Year-to-Date Performance - For the first four months of the year, new mortgage approvals totaled HKD 100.975 billion and 21,337 applications, representing an increase of HKD 13.849 billion (15.9%) and 1,632 applications (8.3%) compared to the same period last year [2] - The amount and number of new mortgage drawdowns for the same period were HKD 66.209 billion and 13,921 applications, reflecting increases of HKD 13.914 billion (26.6%) and 2,585 applications (22.8%) year-on-year [2] Refinancing Trends - In April, the amount and number of refinancing loans were HKD 2.266 billion and 576 applications, showing a decrease of HKD 698 million (23.5%) and 77 applications (11.8%) from the previous month, reaching a six-month low [2] - Year-to-date refinancing figures indicate a total of HKD 11.088 billion and 2,539 applications, down HKD 1.164 billion (9.5%) and 234 applications (8.4%) compared to the same period last year, marking a 13-year low for the first four months [2] Mortgage Ratios and Terms - The mortgage-to-value ratio in April was 62.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous month [2] - The average repayment term was 319 months, down by one month, while the average mortgage amount was HKD 4.42 million, a decrease of HKD 180,000, reaching a 13-month low [2] - The selection ratio for H mortgages was 91.8%, an increase of 1.4%, while the selection ratio for P mortgages was 2.3%, a decrease of 0.9% [2]

Group 1 - Central Plains Real Estate reported a significant drop in transactions, with only 3 deals recorded over the weekend, a 57.1% decrease week-on-week, marking a 16-week low, and the number of estates with zero transactions increased to 8 [1] - The Kowloon district saw all four key estates with no transactions, indicating a cooling in the secondary market [1] - The recent surge in new property sales, particularly in the West Sand area, has attracted market attention, with the sixth round of sales selling out quickly, reflecting strong demand for new properties [1] Group 2 - Midland Realty noted that the secondary market is experiencing a slowdown, with a 33.3% drop in transactions for the top ten blue-chip estates, reaching a 7-week low, and a 15.4% decrease in transactions for the top 15 estates compared to the previous week [1] - The residential market is supported by favorable conditions, including ample bank liquidity and a significant drop in interbank rates, which has eased mortgage burdens and led to an increase in "buying to own" scenarios [1] - Midland Realty's CEO highlighted that the strong performance of the primary market is driven by recent positive factors, with a notable increase in viewing appointments for secondary properties, indicating robust underlying demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the number of registered second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong decreased by approximately 19.5% in May compared to the same period last month, with a total of 2,284 registrations [1] - Despite the impact of the tariff war on global stock markets leading to a slowdown in Hong Kong's property market, the estimated total registrations for May are expected to reach around 3,800, marking a six-month high [1] - The recent decline in interest rates and the easing of the tariff war are contributing to an improved market sentiment, suggesting that June's registration numbers will likely rebound [1] Group 2 - In terms of monetary value, the registrations for second-hand residential properties from May to date show a decrease: properties priced between 5 million to 10 million HKD recorded 771 registrations, down approximately 17% from 929 last month; properties priced at 5 million HKD or below recorded 1,258 registrations, down about 20.6% from 1,584; and properties over 10 million HKD recorded 255 registrations, down around 21.1% from 323 [3] - By district, the Kowloon area recorded 756 registrations, a decrease of about 18.1% from 923; the New Territories recorded 1,101 registrations, down approximately 19.5% from 1,367; and the Hong Kong Island area recorded 427 registrations, down about 21.8% from 546 [4] - In terms of specific housing estates, Sun Hung Kai Properties' "The Met" led with 37 registrations, an increase of about 19.4% from 31 last month; "Jardine's Lookout" ranked second with 24 registrations, down 27.3% from 33; and both "Mei Foo Sun Chuen" and "Taikoo Shing" each recorded 22 registrations, with decreases of approximately 24.1% and 12% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Hong Kong's interbank lending rates, particularly the 1-month HIBOR dropping to 0.96%, is significantly easing the mortgage burden for homeowners, with actual mortgage rates falling to a new low of 2.26% since July 2022, which is below the average rental yield of 3.5% [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Market Impact - The drop in mortgage rates has led to a reduction in monthly payments by approximately HKD 3,341, representing a 14.9% decrease for an average mortgage of HKD 5 million [1] - The current mortgage rates being lower than rental yields has resulted in a situation where homeowners are paying less than they would for renting, with the average payment being 8% lower than rental costs [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% at the beginning of May to 0.96% today indicates a large fluctuation in short-term interest rates, with a 3% decrease [2] - The widening spread between Hong Kong and US interest rates, now exceeding 3%, is unusual and may lead to adjustments in the HIBOR based on changes in demand for Hong Kong dollars [2] - The influx of funds into Hong Kong is expected to be utilized for various activities, including financial investments and corporate dividends, which may eventually normalize the banking system's surplus and lead to a gradual increase in HIBOR rates [2]

Core Insights - The "Hong Kong Confidence Index" has risen to 64.3 points, a week-on-week increase of 1.6%, driven by a significant drop in interest rates and a cooling trade war, which positively impacts the Hong Kong property market [1] - The latest "Hong Kong Property Price Index" stands at 127.47 points, showing a slight week-on-week decline of 0.05%, with a year-to-date decrease of 0.52% [1] Price Trends - The price index for different districts shows mixed results: the Hong Kong Island index is at 132.65 points (down 0.28% week-on-week), the Kowloon index at 133.17 points (down 0.19%), and the New Territories index at 116.24 points (up 0.14%) [1] - Year-to-date performance indicates that Hong Kong Island and New Territories have decreased by 2.41% and 1.64% respectively, while Kowloon has increased by 1.63% [2] Discounted Listings - The highest ratio of discounted listings is found in the New Territories, with specific areas like Lantau Island/Yueng Ching Bay, Tsuen Wan, and Kwun Tong having the most significant discounts [1] - The most discounted units are categorized by size, with B-class units (approximately 431 to 752 square feet) having the highest discount ratio, followed by C-class (753 to 1075 square feet) and A-class (430 square feet or less) [1]

Group 1 - In March, the overall number of property sale agreements and transaction value in Hong Kong reached a four-month high, with 6,651 agreements totaling HKD 457.85 billion, representing increases of 54.4% and 61.9% from February respectively [1] - The recovery in the property market is attributed to factors such as the relaxation of stamp duty measures in the February budget, positive performance in the Hong Kong stock market, and economic stimulus policies from mainland China [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a total of 15,896 property sale agreements and a transaction value of HKD 1,108.07 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.6% and 25.4% due to seasonal factors and market caution [1] Group 2 - In the first-hand private residential market, March recorded 2,221 agreements and a transaction value of HKD 162.9 billion, marking a 148% and 93.1% increase from February respectively [2] - The top-selling new developments in March included Yuen Long's Long Ping with 432 agreements and HKD 18.06 billion, followed by Tin Shui Wai's YOHO WEST with 312 agreements and HKD 16.58 billion [2] - In the second-hand private residential market, March saw 2,950 agreements and a transaction value of HKD 217.9 billion, up 36.9% and 52.5% from February, indicating a recovery in buyer sentiment post-Chinese New Year [2] Group 3 - Major housing estates in March included Mei Foo Sun Chuen with 40 agreements totaling HKD 285 million, Shatin First City with 31 agreements totaling HKD 153 million, and other notable estates [3]