Group 1 - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for May reported a significant drop to 2.8%, a decrease of 74 basis points, marking a 31-month low [1] - Over 95% of new mortgage clients opted for the H mortgage plan in May, influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's market interventions, which increased the banking system's surplus to HKD 174 billion [1] - The average one-month HIBOR fell sharply to 1.47% in May from 3.65% in April, contributing to the decline in MMI and easing the mortgage burden for property buyers in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in April, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the time being [2] - There is a belief that if inflation remains manageable, there may be one opportunity for a rate cut in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - In May, the number of new mortgage insurance plan loans in Hong Kong was 1,462, amounting to HKD 7.185 billion, a decrease of 28 loans (1.9%) from April, while the amount increased by HKD 0.57 billion (0.8%) [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance plan loans utilized in May was 612, totaling HKD 2.896 billion, an increase of 2 loans (0.3%) from April, but the amount decreased by HKD 4.82 billion (14.3%) [1] - The average new mortgage insurance loan amount was HKD 4.73 million, a significant decrease of HKD 810,000 (14.5%), marking a 65-month low [1] Group 2 - For the first five months of 2025, the number of new mortgage insurance loans was 6,910, amounting to HKD 34.671 billion, down 3,737 loans (35.1%) and HKD 20.359 billion (37%) compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest figures in nearly nine and six years respectively [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance loans utilized in the first five months of 2025 was 2,781, with a total of HKD 14.188 billion, also the lowest in nearly nine and six years respectively [1] Group 3 - The Chief Vice President of the mortgage referral company indicated that while lower interest rates benefit the Hong Kong property market, property prices are significantly lower than historical highs, leading to a decrease in buyers' mortgage ratios and loan amounts [2] - The relaxation of mortgage limits by the Hong Kong government last year allows buyers to apply for up to 70% mortgages without needing mortgage insurance, resulting in reduced demand for mortgage insurance [2] - Future growth in mortgage insurance numbers is expected to be limited due to the current market conditions and buyer behavior [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong property market showed strong trading activity in March, leading to an increase in new mortgage approvals in April, reaching an 11-month high [1] - Major developers are launching properties at lower prices, attracting first-time buyers and investors, which is contributing to a favorable sales environment [1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain stable, with a gradual increase in residential mortgage numbers anticipated [1] Mortgage Statistics - In April 2025, the number of new mortgage applications was 7,795, a decrease of 661 applications (7.8%) from March's 8,456 [1] - The total amount of new mortgages approved in April was HKD 25.258 billion, an increase of HKD 5.86 billion (2.4%) from March's HKD 24.672 billion [1] - The number of new mortgages approved in April was 5,719, up by 358 (6.7%) from March's 5,361, marking the highest number in 11 months [1] Year-to-Date Performance - For the first four months of the year, new mortgage approvals totaled HKD 100.975 billion and 21,337 applications, representing an increase of HKD 13.849 billion (15.9%) and 1,632 applications (8.3%) compared to the same period last year [2] - The amount and number of new mortgage drawdowns for the same period were HKD 66.209 billion and 13,921 applications, reflecting increases of HKD 13.914 billion (26.6%) and 2,585 applications (22.8%) year-on-year [2] Refinancing Trends - In April, the amount and number of refinancing loans were HKD 2.266 billion and 576 applications, showing a decrease of HKD 698 million (23.5%) and 77 applications (11.8%) from the previous month, reaching a six-month low [2] - Year-to-date refinancing figures indicate a total of HKD 11.088 billion and 2,539 applications, down HKD 1.164 billion (9.5%) and 234 applications (8.4%) compared to the same period last year, marking a 13-year low for the first four months [2] Mortgage Ratios and Terms - The mortgage-to-value ratio in April was 62.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from the previous month [2] - The average repayment term was 319 months, down by one month, while the average mortgage amount was HKD 4.42 million, a decrease of HKD 180,000, reaching a 13-month low [2] - The selection ratio for H mortgages was 91.8%, an increase of 1.4%, while the selection ratio for P mortgages was 2.3%, a decrease of 0.9% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Hong Kong's interbank lending rates, particularly the 1-month HIBOR dropping to 0.96%, is significantly easing the mortgage burden for homeowners, with actual mortgage rates falling to a new low of 2.26% since July 2022, which is below the average rental yield of 3.5% [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Market Impact - The drop in mortgage rates has led to a reduction in monthly payments by approximately HKD 3,341, representing a 14.9% decrease for an average mortgage of HKD 5 million [1] - The current mortgage rates being lower than rental yields has resulted in a situation where homeowners are paying less than they would for renting, with the average payment being 8% lower than rental costs [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% at the beginning of May to 0.96% today indicates a large fluctuation in short-term interest rates, with a 3% decrease [2] - The widening spread between Hong Kong and US interest rates, now exceeding 3%, is unusual and may lead to adjustments in the HIBOR based on changes in demand for Hong Kong dollars [2] - The influx of funds into Hong Kong is expected to be utilized for various activities, including financial investments and corporate dividends, which may eventually normalize the banking system's surplus and lead to a gradual increase in HIBOR rates [2]