由于旨在提升股东回报的公司治理改革推动了更多交易的发生，预计到2025年，涉及日本企业的交易额 将飙升至约3500亿美元的历史新高。虽然数十亿美元的巨额交易层出不穷，但Itoki表示，这些并非高盛 的主要目标，因为竞争异常激烈，吸引力大减。 他表示，高盛的目标客户是估值在300亿至3000亿日元之间的中型企业，这些企业往往缺乏拓展海外市 场或进行并购所需的资金和人力资源。Itoki说："在很多情况下，这些企业的业务质量很高，在日本拥 有很大的市场份额，但它们缺乏进一步增长所需的资源。" 高盛(GS.US)计划在下一个十年内，将其在日本蓬勃发展的企业并购市场中的收购和投资规模扩大约 8000亿日元(约合51亿美元)，重点关注中型企业。高盛日本分公司成长型股权和私募股权团队董事总经 理Yu Itoki表示，高盛正在寻找管理层收购、子公司出售和企业传承规划等领域的企业客户。他认为， 全球机构投资者对日本市场的需求强劲，同时越来越多的公司也热衷于开展管理层收购和非核心资产出 售等项目。 Itoki在接受采访时表示："我们现在的投资速度是以往的两到三倍。"他指出，投资者和寻求融资的公司 之间的供需关系已经趋于一致。 医 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's GDP for the third quarter of 2025 shows a decline, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, with a seasonally adjusted real value down 0.4% from the previous quarter, translating to an annualized decrease of 1.8% [2][4]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP size for July to September, annualized, is 561.7 trillion yen [5]. - Exports decreased by 1.2%, marking the first negative growth in two quarters, primarily affected by U.S. tariff policies leading to reduced automobile exports [5]. - Imports fell by 0.1%, the first negative growth in three quarters, influenced by declines in oil, natural gas, and air travel-related sectors [5]. - Private residential investment saw a significant drop of 9.4%, the first negative growth in three quarters, due to stricter housing energy standards implemented in April [5]. Consumer Behavior - Personal consumption increased by 0.1%, maintaining positive growth for six consecutive quarters, although the growth rate has slowed [5]. - The hot summer contributed to increased sales in beverages, including alcoholic drinks, and growth in dining services, while autumn clothing sales and automobile consumption showed significant weakness [5]. Investment Trends - Equipment investment grew by 1.0%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of increase, driven by labor shortages prompting automation investments and ongoing expansion in software investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while U.S. consumer spending is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, residential and business fixed investment will show significant weakness [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Actual personal consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the second quarter [1] - The strength of service spending in June remains uncertain [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Residential and business fixed investment is anticipated to be notably weak in the second quarter [1] - Equipment investment has shown a significant slowdown, with businesses reducing spending on computers and communication equipment after a concentrated import period in the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On July 10, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8887 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.13% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8880 yuan per gram, with a maximum of 8911 yuan per gram and a minimum of 8856 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Macro News - President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, which will impact industries reliant on this metal, including automotive, housing, and appliances [2] - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, with nearly half of U.S. consumption coming from imports, primarily from Chile [2] - This tariff is part of a series of tariffs aimed at promoting domestic mining and metal processing, following previous increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures noted that precious metals are experiencing mixed fluctuations, with New York gold futures rising by 0.1% to $3321 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.19% to 771.02 yuan per gram [3] - New York silver futures fell by 11.9 cents to $36.63 per ounce, and Shanghai silver dropped by 0.33% to 8870 yuan per kilogram [3] - The outlook for precious metals suggests continued fluctuations, with key support levels for gold at around $3300 per ounce and silver at $36.5 per ounce, influenced by deepening trade tensions and geopolitical disturbances [3]

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of the year, but key factors are beginning to turn around [1] - A rebound in population and a significant drop in interest rates, including HIBOR, are expected to restore market confidence, with property prices projected to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and by 5% in both 2026 and 2027 [1] - The decline in HIBOR directly reduces mortgage rates, alleviating payment pressure and providing a good opportunity for first-time buyers and motivating upgrade purchases in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Residential Rental Market - The trend of divergence in residential prices and rental markets has continued into 2023, driven by population inflow and government talent introduction plans, which will increase housing demand and push short-term rental growth [1] - Rental prices are expected to rise by approximately 2% to 3% this year, with areas close to major business districts and key universities projected to see rental increases of at least 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Retail Market - Despite changes in tourist consumption habits and average spending levels, an increase in tourist numbers and a slowdown in consumption trends from mainland China are expected to benefit the dining and grocery sectors [2] - High-end shopping centers and core shopping areas are anticipated to remain stable through 2025, although non-tourist and core retail areas may face more significant pressure due to e-commerce challenges [2] Group 4: Office Market - The office market remains cautious, with vacancy rates slightly decreasing from a high of 13.7% in July 2024 to 13.5% in March 2025, but still at elevated levels [2] - Major projects set to complete between 2025 and 2026 will limit the rebound potential of the office market, with Grade A office rents expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year until economic conditions improve [2]