Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while U.S. consumer spending is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, residential and business fixed investment will show significant weakness [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending - Actual personal consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the second quarter [1] - The strength of service spending in June remains uncertain [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Residential and business fixed investment is anticipated to be notably weak in the second quarter [1] - Equipment investment has shown a significant slowdown, with businesses reducing spending on computers and communication equipment after a concentrated import period in the first quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On July 10, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8887 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.13% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8880 yuan per gram, with a maximum of 8911 yuan per gram and a minimum of 8856 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Macro News - President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, which will impact industries reliant on this metal, including automotive, housing, and appliances [2] - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, with nearly half of U.S. consumption coming from imports, primarily from Chile [2] - This tariff is part of a series of tariffs aimed at promoting domestic mining and metal processing, following previous increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures noted that precious metals are experiencing mixed fluctuations, with New York gold futures rising by 0.1% to $3321 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.19% to 771.02 yuan per gram [3] - New York silver futures fell by 11.9 cents to $36.63 per ounce, and Shanghai silver dropped by 0.33% to 8870 yuan per kilogram [3] - The outlook for precious metals suggests continued fluctuations, with key support levels for gold at around $3300 per ounce and silver at $36.5 per ounce, influenced by deepening trade tensions and geopolitical disturbances [3]

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of the year, but key factors are beginning to turn around [1] - A rebound in population and a significant drop in interest rates, including HIBOR, are expected to restore market confidence, with property prices projected to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and by 5% in both 2026 and 2027 [1] - The decline in HIBOR directly reduces mortgage rates, alleviating payment pressure and providing a good opportunity for first-time buyers and motivating upgrade purchases in the secondary market [1] Group 2: Residential Rental Market - The trend of divergence in residential prices and rental markets has continued into 2023, driven by population inflow and government talent introduction plans, which will increase housing demand and push short-term rental growth [1] - Rental prices are expected to rise by approximately 2% to 3% this year, with areas close to major business districts and key universities projected to see rental increases of at least 5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Retail Market - Despite changes in tourist consumption habits and average spending levels, an increase in tourist numbers and a slowdown in consumption trends from mainland China are expected to benefit the dining and grocery sectors [2] - High-end shopping centers and core shopping areas are anticipated to remain stable through 2025, although non-tourist and core retail areas may face more significant pressure due to e-commerce challenges [2] Group 4: Office Market - The office market remains cautious, with vacancy rates slightly decreasing from a high of 13.7% in July 2024 to 13.5% in March 2025, but still at elevated levels [2] - Major projects set to complete between 2025 and 2026 will limit the rebound potential of the office market, with Grade A office rents expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year until economic conditions improve [2]