美国过去35年来的主要经济政策制定者，包括所有在世的美联储前主席，敦促最高法院允许美联储理事 库克继续任职。法庭之友意见书警告称，在库克的法律挑战仍在进行的情况下允许她被免职，将标志着 国会90年前建立的保障行政部门独立性的保障措施受到破坏性侵蚀。在该意见书上签名的人士引用的研 究表明，央行在设定利率时不考虑短期政治因素，可以降低通胀，降低长期利率。这份简报由美联储前 主席格林斯潘、伯南克和耶伦签署。18位签名者还包括以下共和党和民主党政府的总统顾问，以及来自 不同意识形态的主要经济学家：前财长罗伯特·鲁宾和劳伦斯·萨默斯、前经济顾问委员会主席格伦·哈伯 德和格雷格·曼昆等。（格隆汇） ...

钛媒体App 9月25日消息，美联储理事古尔斯比称，如果美联储失去独立性，通胀将会"卷土重来"。 （广角观察） ...

古尔斯比：美联储保持独立性至关重要。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

100到150个基点是什么概念？相当于半年内连降四五次，这幅度搁往年得是经济崩了才会用的猛药。可现在美国核心通胀还挂 在2.9%，离美联储2%的目标还差一截，鲍威尔上周刚说"要平衡通胀和就业风险"，转头就被贝森特架在了火上。 贝森特急的不是经济，是特朗普那"3-3-3"经济目标，要到2028年搞3%GDP增长，光靠放松管制不够，得靠降息放水才容易出 效果。 9月24日，美国财长贝森特突然放话，直指美联储主席鲍威尔本该释放降息100到150个基点的信号！这消息一出市场就像被投 了颗炸弹，水花四溅。 这事儿最反常的地方在于，美国财长和美联储主席历来都是"面和心不和"也得装客气，哪有这么明着指着鼻子催降息的？ 要知道贝森特可不是普通政客，这位前索罗斯基金首席投资官，是特朗普一手提拔的"自己人"，他这话里藏的可不只是经济主 张。 更要命的是美联储的独立性。贝森特前几天还写文章呼吁"全面审查美联储"，说人家政策失误多，现在又公开逼宫降息，明眼 人都看得出是想把央行绑上政治战车。 鲍威尔之前嘴硬说"坚定保独立"，可面对财长这波攻势，下次议息会怕是很难硬气起来。 这哪是催降息，分明是政治之手伸进了货币政策的盘子。短期市场或 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup's strategists have exited a bet that long-term U.S. Treasuries would underperform short-term Treasuries amid increasing attacks on the Federal Reserve, indicating a reduction in concerns over the central bank's independence [1][3] - The initial recommendation was based on expectations that President Trump's tax and spending policies would inflate government debt, putting pressure on longer-term debt [1][3] - The strategists noted that supply concerns for long-term Treasuries have eased since the trade was initiated in May, and the recent FOMC meeting has marginally reduced worries about the Fed's independence [3] Group 2 - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a near-unanimous consensus that surprised some market participants [3] - The only dissenting vote came from a Trump-appointed governor who favored a larger cut, while other previously dovish members aligned with the majority this time [3] - The strategists observed that past easing cycles during soft landing scenarios have been relatively shallow, limiting the potential for a steepening of the yield curve [3]

今日周三（9月24日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于850附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报855.42元/ 克，涨幅0.50%，最高触及862.10元/克，最低下探855.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在9月的利率决议会议上，美联储内部呈现出显著的意见分歧态势，不过鲍威尔始终展现出沉稳冷静的 姿态。近期，特朗普再度发力，加大对美联储的政策施压强度，此举不仅强化了市场对于美联储长期秉 持"鸽派"政策走向的预期，也对美元的国际公信力构成了更为严峻的挑战。 自今年就任以来，特朗普多次公开指责美联储降息步伐迟缓，甚至曾放出狠话称要罢免鲍威尔的职务。 此外，在8月初美联储理事库格勒提前离任之后，特朗普迅速做出人事安排，任命其经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰临时接任该职位。当前，美联储理事会共有7名成员，其中沃勒与鲍曼均系特朗普提名人 选。倘若明年鲍威尔卸去主席之位并依惯例辞去理事职务，那么届时由特朗普所任命的理事会成员数量 或将增至5人。这一潜在变化无疑会进一步加深市场对美联储独立性受损的忧虑。 从整体情况来看，尽管面临诸多压力， ...

Core Insights - Approximately 70% of CEOs surveyed believe that Trump's tariffs have harmed their companies [1] - 74% of respondents agree with the court's ruling that the tariffs are illegal [1] - Despite Trump's intention to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., 62% of CEOs have not increased investments in U.S. manufacturing or infrastructure since early April [1] - 80% of CEOs think Trump's request for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates is not in the best interest of the country [1] - About 70% of respondents believe recent government actions have undermined the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth cut since 2024 [1][2][12] - The decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, indicating a consensus on the need for a rate cut, although there was some internal disagreement regarding the extent of the cut [2][3] - Fed Chairman Powell's statements were characterized as "hawkish," emphasizing the need for risk management and indicating that future rate adjustments would not be made hastily [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market, with a noted increase in risks to employment, while inflation remains elevated [3][5] - The Fed's economic forecasts showed a divergence among officials regarding future interest rates, with expectations for two more rate cuts this year, but some officials predicting no further cuts [3][4][12] - The labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, with recent data indicating a drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate [8][9] Group 3 - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown a slight decline, primarily driven by a decrease in core services inflation, while core goods inflation has increased [7][8] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to the dual pressures of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with a focus on managing risks associated with these trends [5][9] - The market anticipates further rate cuts in October and December, with expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed moving forward [14][16] Group 4 - The Fed's independence has been a concern amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, but Powell has maintained a rational and independent stance [13] - The future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy will depend heavily on economic data, with a focus on balancing inflation risks against employment risks [14][16] - The outlook for gold prices remains strong in the medium to long term, supported by central bank purchases and a global trend towards de-dollarization, despite short-term pressures from rate cuts [16]

四个月前的建议是基于总统唐纳德·特朗普标志性的税收和支出法案将导致政府债务膨胀，令长债承 压。8月底，特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，引发外界担心政治干预将危及美联储对抗通胀的信 誉之际，他们加大了押注力度。 令一些市场参与者感到意外的是，在上周的政策会议上，美联储会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔戮力达成近乎一 致的共识，支持降息四分之一个百分点。特朗普任命的理事米兰是唯一投票支持更大幅度降息的人。 来源：环球市场播报 花旗策略师退出了一项交易建议：该建议押注随着对美联储的攻击加剧，长期美债将表现不佳；他们宣 称，美联储上周几乎一致的政策决定"在一定程度上"减少了外界对该央行独立性的疑虑。 Dirk Willer和Adam Pickett等策略师建议客户，在该交易达到"回调上限"（drawdown limit）后，对30年 利率远期将低于5年期利率的押注"获利了结"。他们在5月以40个基点启动了这笔交易，8月份在72个基 点加码，之后在60个基点退出。 花旗策略师写道，自5月启动贸易谈判以来，供应担忧已变得更加缓和。他们表示，本月的美联储政策 会议"在一定程度上减轻了人们对美联储独立性的疑虑"。 ...