2年期与10年期美债收益率曲线达到7月中旬以来最陡水平。对利率敏感度更高的短端收益率下滑，反映市场对美联储独立性担忧以及仍在升温的降息预期。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署文件解除美联储理事库克的职务，即时生效。 https://t.co/Yl5kfBd6XA ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美林驻澳大利亚前首席经济学家索尔·埃斯莱克表示，美联储理事丽莎·库克被解职标志着，在特朗普总 统推动重塑美国联邦政府及其机构之后，白宫干预的明显升级。他补充说，忠诚似乎是继续担任高级公 职的一个标准。美联储的独立性是美国国债和美元保持避险地位的关键因素。美联储现在正受到全面的 攻击，这样做不会有什么好结果。 ...

刚刚特朗普做出重大举动！他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）职务"立即生效"。 这一史无前例的举动震动金融市场，质疑声四起。美国股指期货应声下跌，纳斯达克100指数合约下跌0.2%，避险情绪推动日元兑美元上涨，黄金收复稍 早跌幅。 特朗普此举一旦获得成功，距离"掌控美联储"将更近一步。如果库克离职，将让特朗普有可能获得四个席位，使其在七人理事会中占据多数。 特朗普在第一任期内已任命了其中两位现任理事，并在不久前已提名其经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补由拜登任命的阿德里亚娜· 库格勒（Adriana Kugler）近期提前腾出的第三个席位。 对此有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos在最新文章中分析称，特朗普目前在美联储七人理事会中已任命两名成员。如果再获得两个 提名席位，他将获得多数席位，从而可能从根本上重塑整个美联储体系。 并且按照Timiraos分析认为，如果特朗普在明年3月之前在美联储理事会获得多数席位，他们可能会拒绝重新任命地区联储主席，从而实现对FOMC会议 的掌控。 对于特朗普解除其职务的行为，美联储理事库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Lisa Cook by President Trump has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts and reignited concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading investors to shift their focus towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold, yen, and cryptocurrencies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Impact on the Federal Reserve - Trump's action raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its ability to maintain an unbiased monetary policy [6][7]. - Analysts express concern that Trump's intention is to install his own appointees within the Federal Reserve, which could further erode trust in the institution [7][8]. - The market is reacting to the potential for a more dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a result of this dismissal, which could lead to a weaker dollar [8][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, the dollar weakened across the board, and there was a notable increase in demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin [5][9]. - Analysts predict that the market has not fully priced in all potential risks associated with this political maneuvering, indicating a high level of uncertainty moving forward [10]. - The initial market response was relatively muted, possibly due to the timing of the announcement and uncertainty regarding Trump's ability to successfully replace Cook [10].

Core Points - President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, citing concerns over her integrity and the need for public confidence in the Federal Reserve's policy-making [1] - The dismissal may lead to a legal battle, potentially escalating to the Supreme Court, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve under Trump's administration [1] - Cook was nominated by former President Joe Biden in 2022, and if removed, Trump has the authority to nominate a successor, which could reshape the Federal Reserve Board in the coming years [2]

Group 1 - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has never seen a president remove a member of its board since its establishment in 1913 [1][4] - The market reacted negatively, with the dollar index falling by 0.3% to 98.187, and the Japanese yen and gold prices rising as investors sought safe-haven assets [1][2] - Analysts suggest that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar outlook [2][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.694% [2] - Major stock indices in Asia and Europe experienced declines, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index falling by 1.3% [2] - Market analysts express concerns that Trump's actions could lead to a loss of trust in U.S. assets, which have historically been viewed as safe investments [2][6] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest level since August 11, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts and inflation hedging [3] - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with bipartisan reactions highlighting the divide in perspectives on the Federal Reserve's independence and its role in economic policy [4][6] - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence for effective monetary policy, warning that Trump's influence could lead to adverse economic outcomes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and yen [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 0.4% to 147.24 and the euro appreciating by 0.3% to 1.165 [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% from 4.275% at the previous close, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [4]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index down by 1.3% [5]. Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts express that Trump's actions represent an unusual infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially undermining the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment [2][6]. - The market is adjusting its expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [6]. Political Reactions - The political divide is evident, with Republican Senator Rick Scott supporting Trump's actions as a means to restore trust in the Federal Reserve, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns it as a blatant violation of the Federal Reserve Act [7].

美国总统特朗普周一表示，已解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。他将致库克的解雇信发布在个 人社交媒体上，这是美联储111年历史中，首次出现总统解雇美联储理事的案例。 这一史无前例的举动，标志着特朗普政府对美联储的施压大幅升级。此前，这位美国总统一直指责美联 储降息动作过慢，未能满足其政策诉求。 库克的律师团队周一晚间向美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）提供的声明中援引库克的话说，"特朗普总统 声称以'正当理由'解雇我，但无任何法律依据，他也无权这么做。我不会辞职。自2022年任职以来，我 一直致力于助力美国经济，未来也将继续履行职责。" 美联储未就此事发表评论。 美联储在制度设计上本应独立于政治势力，目的是让其在实现"控制通胀、支持就业"的双重使命时，能 专注于经济数据而非政治考量。 库克于2022年由前总统拜登任命为美联储理事，是首位担任该职务的黑人女性。 尽管此次解雇可能面临法律挑战，甚至可能上诉至最高法院，但特朗普解雇库克的举动，已将这个全球 最大经济体的央行推向了未知领域。 例如，目前无法确定库克是否必须立即离开美联储理事会；若必须离职，特朗普是否有机会提名他人填 补其空缺。库克的律师、洛厄尔联 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"上公开了一 封致美联储理事丽莎·库克的信件，宣布即刻将其免职。 ▲丽莎·库克 另据报道，这是美联储自成立111年以来，首次有美国总统解雇美联储理事，标志着白宫与这个全球最 有权势的中央银行之间的斗争已经公开升级。 ▼交锋▼ 特朗普："我对你的诚信已无信心" 特朗普在给库克的信中给出了"理由"。特朗普写道："我已确定有充分理由将您从职位上罢免。" 他所说的"理由"，是库克近期缠身的"抵押贷款欺诈"指控问题。特朗普在信中措辞严厉地表示："鉴于 您在金融事务中存在欺骗性和潜在的犯罪行为……我对您的诚信已无信心。至少，相关行为表现出在金 融交易中的严重疏忽，这让外界对您作为金融监管者的能力和可信度产生质疑。" 这项指控最初由美国联邦住房金融局局长普尔特提出，他已向美国司法部提交刑事检举。据相关文件， 指控的核心内容是，库克曾为两处不同的房产申请抵押贷款，却将这两处房产都列为自己的"主要住 所"。目前，美司法部已计划就此展开调查，但库克本人并未被提出任何刑事指控。 库克此前声明："我不会因霸凌辞职" 丽莎·库克是一名经济学家，是首位在美联储理事会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a direct intervention in the Fed's independence, leading to a decline in the dollar's value and a subsequent increase in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a significant increase of $30 following the announcement, with the dollar index dropping approximately 30 points [1]. - The market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the news, resulting in a strong upward movement in gold prices, which reached a high of $3376 before closing at $3365 [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but concerns about the sustainability of upward momentum exist, as market participants are cautious about the potential volatility [2]. - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a moving average range, creating uncertainty for gold's price direction [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Recommended trading strategy involves operating within a range of $3355 to $3380, with a stop loss of $5 and a take profit target of $15 to $20 [3]. - Traders are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for stabilization at key support levels before entering long positions, while also being prepared to short if resistance levels are encountered [2][3].